Curvy-Occurrence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$88

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$38

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 05-13 21:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 75% $-88

Other

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	5	$273	250	240	+10	Up	+$13	05-13 20:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	3	$226	152	105	+47	Down	$-24	05-13 21:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	3	$124	146	27	+119	Down	$-98	05-13 20:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	2	$115	231	231	+0	Up	+$65	05-13 19:37
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$110	238	238	+0	open	—	05-13 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	5	$109	84	84	+0	Down	+$9	05-13 20:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	1	$99	189	0	+189	Down	$-99	05-13 21:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	3	$75	61	61	+0	Down	+$15	05-13 21:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	2	$64	96	96	+0	Down	+$14	05-13 20:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	3	$61	32	32	+0	Up	+$1	05-13 20:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	2	$56	35	35	+0	Up	+$6	05-13 20:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	2	$54	30	30	+0	Up	+$4	05-13 20:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	1	$50	53	0	+53	Up	+$3	05-11 15:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$43	27	27	+0	Down	+$10	05-13 19:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	2	$31	35	0	+35	Up	+$4	05-13 13:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	1	$25	39	0	+39	Up	+$14	05-12 20:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	1	$25	58	0	+58	Up	$-25	05-13 19:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 21:10:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	61	74¢	$45	0xda2e57…
05-13 21:10:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xcc396b…
05-13 21:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xb704cc…
05-13 21:04:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	189	52¢	$99	0xe06729…
05-13 21:03:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	105	96¢	$101	0x7174bd…
05-13 21:02:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x967605…
05-13 21:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x17e551…
05-13 20:57:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	44	69¢	$30	0xad6df7…
05-13 20:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x579a44…
05-13 20:56:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x7de418…
05-13 20:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	196	57¢	$113	0x3f12d3…
05-13 20:55:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x1c79ef…
05-13 20:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	17	73¢	$12	0xcc2d92…
05-13 20:45:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0x9ac4da…
05-13 20:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	37	67¢	$25	0x0374b6…
05-13 20:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x94836d…
05-13 20:45:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0xe259ef…
05-13 20:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x6bfb06…
05-13 20:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe70584…
05-13 20:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x73996d…
05-13 20:17:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	35	89¢	$31	0xda6f58…
05-13 20:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x4c87a9…
05-13 20:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	96	40¢	$39	0x75e705…
05-13 20:10:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0x7a821d…
05-13 20:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x013e75…
05-13 20:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x6e28ea…
05-13 20:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	27	48¢	$13	0x92cd1b…
05-13 20:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x0db203…
05-13 20:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	27	42¢	$11	0x44daa7…
05-13 19:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xfb79b1…
05-13 19:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x28774f…
05-13 19:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	27	60¢	$16	0x46a32a…
05-13 19:37:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	231	39¢	$90	0x94923f…
05-13 19:37:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	231	11¢	$25	0x75cbc8…
05-13 13:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x90b89d…
05-13 13:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x532d50…
05-13 10:49:38	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	238	25¢	$60	0x7caeca…
05-13 01:31:35	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	21¢	$50	0xe7077b…
05-12 20:04:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x5dca9d…
05-11 15:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xe7bd9f…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xb27b…5b82	16	$26.1K	3,674	05-13 21:14
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	16	$15.8K	178	05-13 21:14
(anonymous) 0xf8e3…fd17	16	$15.6K	1,299	05-13 21:14
Nice-Prejudice 0xfb0f…0b02	16	$11.4K	2,535	05-13 21:14
Thirsty-Squid 0xda12…6967	16	$6.61K	649	05-13 21:15
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	16	$5.72K	440	05-13 21:14
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	16	$5.50K	869	05-13 21:13
Favorite-Sunflower 0xba01…8535	16	$5.23K	207	05-13 21:11