Cooked-Hat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

44.4%

Resolved

Trades

127

lifetime

Volume

$2.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$44

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-09 01:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

58% 33% +$0

Politics

29% 100% +$1

Sports

13% 0% —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alberta join the US?	No		+46	$44	96¢	$44	+$0	06-06 09:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Alberta join the US?	9	$285	172	126	+46	open	—	06-06 09:02
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	5	$158	84	84	+0	Yes	+$0	04-20 19:53
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	10	$157	160	160	+0	open	—	06-08 21:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$155	127	127	+0	open	—	06-05 04:57
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	5	$155	79	79	+0	open	—	04-25 20:18
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	2	$92	48	48	+0	open	—	05-24 16:30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$91	48	48	+0	open	—	05-18 14:48
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$86	183	183	+0	open	—	04-24 14:46
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$85	44	44	+0	No	+$0	03-23 13:58
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	2	$85	43	43	+0	open	—	05-15 05:28
Iran leadership change by June 30?	2	$82	44	44	+0	open	—	05-30 18:37
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$81	41	41	+0	open	—	05-30 23:44
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	2	$81	51	51	+0	open	—	06-03 21:22
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$80	55	55	+0	open	—	06-09 22:34
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$80	87	87	+0	open	—	03-26 06:19
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$80	73	73	+0	open	—	05-29 07:53
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$79	41	41	+0	open	—	05-21 19:09
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$77	39	39	+0	No	$-0	03-27 20:35
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	2	$74	38	38	+0	open	—	03-19 08:21
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	+$0	04-10 03:12
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$71	36	36	+0	open	—	04-02 07:42
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	2	$68	38	38	+0	open	—	06-09 01:37
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$68	35	35	+0	open	—	03-28 04:20
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$67	35	34	+1	open	—	03-28 00:07
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$32	81	81	+0	open	—	06-02 04:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$31	16	16	+0	open	—	04-21 19:12
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	2	$27	96	96	+0	No	+$1	03-30 11:12
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	5	$27	96	252	-156	open	—	05-29 21:33
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$24	12	12	+0	open	—	04-26 06:18
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	2	$22	46	46	+0	open	—	03-17 19:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 22:34:49	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	55	72¢	$40	0x9a5ec5…
06-09 20:59:25	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	55	73¢	$40	0x7b5fc4…
06-09 01:37:13	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	SELL	38	90¢	$34	0xfc647c…
06-09 01:36:25	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	38	90¢	$34	0xb3e4e0…
06-08 21:31:34	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0xa17608…
06-08 19:34:42	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$40	0x0d5ff3…
06-08 11:46:49	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xcc3305…
06-07 09:39:21	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	31	96¢	$30	0x2fdfd7…
06-07 09:39:21	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x0d37d5…
06-07 08:03:48	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$37	0x69abdc…
06-06 09:02:31	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0x0e5272…
06-06 07:25:34	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xa1e8a2…
06-05 04:57:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	49	66¢	$32	0xc2908b…
06-05 04:57:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	6	66¢	$4	0x28626e…
06-05 03:00:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	55	66¢	$36	0xe4a21d…
06-04 21:06:34	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$2	0xfb1717…
06-04 18:41:39	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	29	2¢	$1	0x89e710…
06-04 18:41:37	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	37	2¢	$1	0x859ceb…
06-04 18:41:37	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x5ab908…
06-03 21:22:10	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	51	79¢	$40	0xf2dfda…
06-03 21:21:24	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	51	79¢	$40	0x1ddf0b…
06-02 04:29:09	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	78	20¢	$15	0xf11b88…
06-02 04:29:09	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3	20¢	$1	0x303c5d…
06-02 03:13:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	69	20¢	$14	0x501aec…
06-02 03:13:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x4250e4…
06-01 19:32:53	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	42	96¢	$40	0xf9e227…
06-01 17:45:53	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0xf4771b…
05-31 11:53:39	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	81	2¢	$1	0x2f7f66…
05-31 10:24:32	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	27	2¢	$0	0xa25380…
05-31 10:24:32	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	29	2¢	$1	0x859287…
05-31 10:24:32	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$0	0x38e1e7…
05-30 23:44:15	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0x536602…
05-30 23:42:58	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x070beb…
05-30 18:37:02	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	44	93¢	$41	0x603b6a…
05-30 16:40:11	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	44	93¢	$41	0x7cb2be…
05-30 06:02:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	72	57¢	$41	0x95bab6…
05-30 04:00:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	72	58¢	$42	0x1b649f…
05-29 21:33:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x6675ff…
05-29 21:33:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	46	6¢	$3	0x158e59…
05-29 19:30:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	96	8¢	$8	0x40eb20…
05-29 07:53:36	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	73	54¢	$39	0x73f020…
05-29 05:48:42	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	73	55¢	$40	0xdec5b5…
05-28 14:20:32	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0xb2ae7d…
05-28 09:41:18	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0x1e95b1…
05-28 09:41:16	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0xf1fc4b…
05-28 09:41:16	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	18	96¢	$17	0xbd9832…
05-28 06:01:42	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0x4db609…
05-25 03:43:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	28	28¢	$8	0x94059b…
05-25 01:32:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	28	30¢	$8	0x548b57…
05-24 16:30:36	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	48	95¢	$46	0x4a9302…
05-24 16:29:49	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	48	95¢	$46	0xf5b4ec…
05-23 12:02:38	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	38	9¢	$3	0xf31709…
05-23 12:02:38	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	118	9¢	$10	0xda82f8…
05-21 19:09:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x20a6fd…
05-21 19:09:18	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xbc49ea…
05-21 16:19:44	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	41	96¢	$39	0x329fb7…
05-18 14:48:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	48	95¢	$45	0x6ce72f…
05-18 14:47:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	48	95¢	$45	0xaeb4a0…
05-15 05:28:31	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0xf15e99…
05-15 05:27:45	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	99¢	$42	0x082f81…
04-26 06:18:36	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xcd52c5…
04-26 06:18:36	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb48ba3…
04-26 02:51:00	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x3fe7f6…
04-25 20:18:18	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xece05f…
04-25 20:18:18	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x6d619b…
04-25 15:48:38	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x6b7e87…
04-24 14:46:06	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	42	97¢	$41	0xaf7c8a…
04-24 12:57:16	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0xc247af…
04-22 16:14:38	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0x5ffa74…
04-22 14:43:48	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x8bb148…
04-21 19:12:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0xcec7dd…
04-21 19:12:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xd58fd7…
04-21 15:49:22	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	107	1¢	$1	0xe67db3…
04-21 15:49:22	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0xcd2e73…
04-21 12:04:16	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	141	2¢	$3	0x06015d…
04-20 19:53:20	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	33	94¢	$31	0x7fc413…
04-20 19:53:20	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x245dfa…
04-20 18:12:26	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xeb9f03…
04-14 00:05:05	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	44	94¢	$42	0x1fed77…
04-13 22:42:15	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	44	94¢	$41	0xf63155…
04-10 03:12:39	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0xb145b0…
04-10 02:53:51	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x1b3165…
04-02 07:42:55	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0xbe9e1b…
04-02 05:39:29	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0x448574…
04-02 05:39:29	Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x0a8112…
03-30 11:12:06	Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	96	15¢	$14	0x66b194…
03-30 08:47:10	Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	14¢	$13	0x9c68ee…
03-28 04:20:43	Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0xda40aa…
03-28 00:45:09	Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x436ab0…
03-28 00:07:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0xc68f35…
03-27 22:59:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	35	96¢	$34	0xa01569…
03-27 20:35:51	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0x826011…
03-27 19:14:59	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0x13e483…
03-26 06:19:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	47	3¢	$1	0xb64c45…
03-26 03:47:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	3¢	$1	0xba8a9b…
03-26 03:47:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x5373f1…
03-23 23:25:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0xf2a843…
03-23 23:23:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xc5dbff…
03-23 20:48:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xb8db65…
03-23 13:58:53	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	44	96¢	$42	0x5402e5…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	40	$474.7K	7,731	06-10 00:19
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	39	$162.3K	12,560	06-10 00:12
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	37	$63.5K	803	06-09 08:04
Worthwhile-Sock 0x682c…17ae	36	$69.8K	23,823	06-10 00:09
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	35	$5.14K	1,686	06-08 23:04
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	33	$2.98K	2,667	06-08 17:58
Spirited-Motion 0x70b6…aa2f	28	$9.43K	4,809	05-12 03:21
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	27	$54.2K	4,538	06-01 04:51