Follow the profitable cohort

export VIKE_API_KEY=...
python pm-smart-money.py             # real run: needs the key
python pm-smart-money.py --dry-run   # prints the requests it would make, calls nothing

"""Where the profitable Polymarket cohort put money in the last day, and which of those markets it also bought below the mid.

Run:  VIKE_API_KEY=... python pm-smart-money.py    (--dry-run lists the requests and makes none)
"""
import os
import sys
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from urllib.parse import urlencode

NAME = "pm-smart-money"
BASE = "https://data.vike.io"
DRY = "--dry-run" in sys.argv


def fail(why):
    sys.exit(f"{NAME}: {why}")


def call(path, method="GET", **params):
    url = BASE + path + ("?" + urlencode(params) if params else "")
    if DRY:
        print(method, url)
        return None
    key = os.environ.get("VIKE_API_KEY") or fail("set VIKE_API_KEY")
    import requests

    r = requests.request(method, url, headers={"X-API-Key": key}, timeout=60)
    if r.status_code != 200:
        fail(f"{method} {path} answered HTTP {r.status_code}: {r.text[:200]}")
    return r.json()


def main():
    # Dollars, not shares: net_inflow is cohort buys minus cohort sells in the window. Rows come back best first.
    flows = call("/v1/polymarket/smart_money", mode="flows", hours=24, limit=5)
    # Only clear cases appear here: at least $500 of cohort buying and a 0.03 gap to the mid. [] is a normal answer.
    cheap = call("/v1/polymarket/smart_money", mode="mispricings", hours=24, limit=20)
    cid = "0xe0b5bd8eef80fe8976e2c287e0b76a5cda138ddc437acf95f9ba91112dbc983d"  # --dry-run has no response to read
    if not DRY:
        if not flows:
            fail("no cohort flow in the last 24 hours")
        by_market = {m["condition_id"]: m for m in cheap}
        for f in flows:
            line = f"{f['title']}: net ${f['net_inflow']:,.0f} from {f['smart_wallets']} wallets, yes_mid {f['yes_mid']}"
            m = by_market.get(f["condition_id"])
            if m:
                line += f"  | also bought below the mid: {m['side']} at {m['avg_buy_price']}, now {m['current_mid']}"
            print(line)
        cid = flows[0]["condition_id"]

    # The top market's lifecycle: closed is derived, so a settled market reads closed=1 here.
    detail = call(f"/v1/polymarket/markets/{cid}")
    if DRY:
        return
    if not detail:
        fail(f"{cid} is not in the directory")
    d = detail[0]
    end = datetime.fromtimestamp(d["end_date"] / 1000, timezone.utc).strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M UTC")
    print(f"top market {d['slug']}: closed={d['closed']}, ends {end}")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    try:
        main()
    except Exception as e:  # a shape the recipe does not expect fails by name, not by traceback
        fail(f"{type(e).__name__}: {e}")