vike

Recipe 7 of 30

Which Polymarket wallets are farmers: a high hit rate on a sliver of profit?

Sort /leaderboard by hit_rate with min_resolved=50, then set realized_pnl_usd against volume_all_usd; a 100% rate that returns cents on thousands of dollars is a farmer.

GET /v1/polymarket/leaderboard answers it in one call, sorted by hit_rate with min_resolved=50. The top rows win every resolved market they touch, and their realized_pnl_usd is a fraction of a percent of volume_all_usd. That is the farmer pattern: buying outcomes that are nearly certain just under $1. The full parameter list is on Trader leaderboard.

Quick answer

Sort by hit rate over at least 50 resolved markets.

cURL
# wallets with the highest hit rate over at least 50 resolved markets
curl -H "X-API-Key: $VIKE_API_KEY" \
  "https://data.vike.io/v1/polymarket/leaderboard?sort=hit_rate&min_resolved=50&limit=5"

Example response

Captured from the live API on 2026-10-24 at 17:15 UTC, trimmed to 3 of 5 rows. All five rows have hit_rate 1.0, and the first made $12.84 on $9,983 of volume, a 0.13% return; the others made between $0.89 and $6.98. hit_rate_ci is narrow because the rate is uniform, not because there is an edge. Every 100% wallet ties, and ties break on the address, so the first page is the alphabetical start of a long list.

Example response
[
  {
    "rank": 1,
    "proxy_wallet": "0x00041bcd345ff9a1c22fd8b53a2cf9e395d2f2ff",
    "pseudonym": "Feline-Situation",
    "display_name": "verte",
    "realized_pnl_usd": 12.84,
    "realized_pnl_window_usd": 12.84,
    "resolved_markets": 57,
    "hit_rate": 1.0,
    "hit_rate_ci": 0.031571,
    "volume_all_usd": 9983.47,
    "volume_window_usd": 9983.47,
    "trades_all": 58,
    "trades_window": 58,
    "avg_trade_usd": 172.13,
    "markets": 58,
    "first_seen": "2026-01-04T16:30:21.000Z",
    "last_seen": "2026-09-02T16:21:25.000Z",
    "tags": []
  },
  {
    "rank": 2,
    "proxy_wallet": "0x0018bb81d78f3e2756a8db69804e2a937695d76d",
    "pseudonym": "",
    "display_name": "",
    "realized_pnl_usd": 2.9,
    "realized_pnl_window_usd": 2.9,
    "resolved_markets": 59,
    "hit_rate": 1.0,
    "hit_rate_ci": 0.030566,
    "volume_all_usd": 571.82,
    "volume_window_usd": 571.82,
    "trades_all": 59,
    "trades_window": 59,
    "avg_trade_usd": 9.69,
    "markets": 59,
    "first_seen": "2026-01-31T06:53:56.000Z",
    "last_seen": "2026-05-08T09:23:33.000Z",
    "tags": []
  },
  {
    "rank": 3,
    "proxy_wallet": "0x00348272b47380239d688a6ca741121f2b50d53d",
    "pseudonym": "",
    "display_name": "",
    "realized_pnl_usd": 2.23,
    "realized_pnl_window_usd": 2.23,
    "resolved_markets": 102,
    "hit_rate": 1.0,
    "hit_rate_ci": 0.018148,
    "volume_all_usd": 201.96,
    "volume_window_usd": 201.96,
    "trades_all": 102,
    "trades_window": 102,
    "avg_trade_usd": 1.98,
    "markets": 102,
    "first_seen": "2026-09-03T13:33:49.000Z",
    "last_seen": "2026-10-09T15:08:51.000Z",
    "tags": ["bot"]
  }
]

Variations

Farmers with real size. Add a volume floor to find the large wallets running the same play.

cURL — with size
# the highest hit rates among wallets with $100,000 or more of lifetime volume
curl -H "X-API-Key: $VIKE_API_KEY" \
  "https://data.vike.io/v1/polymarket/leaderboard?sort=hit_rate&min_resolved=50&min_volume_usd=100000&limit=20"

Leave the bots out. min_avg_usd=20 drops every wallet tagged bot (an average trade under $20 over 100 or more trades).

cURL — no bots
# high hit rates with an average trade of $20 or more
curl -H "X-API-Key: $VIKE_API_KEY" \
  "https://data.vike.io/v1/polymarket/leaderboard?sort=hit_rate&min_resolved=50&min_avg_usd=20&limit=20"

The return on volume. Compute the ratio that tells a farmer from a winner.

cURL — return on volume
# realized P&L as a share of lifetime volume, per wallet
curl -s -H "X-API-Key: $VIKE_API_KEY" \
  "https://data.vike.io/v1/polymarket/leaderboard?sort=hit_rate&min_resolved=50&min_volume_usd=100000&limit=20" | jq '.[] | {proxy_wallet, hit_rate, realized_pnl_usd, volume_all_usd, pnl_per_dollar: (.realized_pnl_usd / .volume_all_usd)}'

Before you rely on it

A high hit rate is not skill by itself

hit_rate is the share of resolved dollar volume that sat in winning markets, so a wallet that buys near-certain outcomes just under $1 scores 100% for almost no profit. Read realized_pnl_usd against volume_all_usd before you call a rate an edge. min_resolved defaults to 20; below about 50 a perfect rate can be a handful of lucky bets. Markets that resolved invalid are left out of the rate.

Ask your agent

Connected to the Vike MCP server (https://vike.io/mcp) in Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor, ask it in plain words. The polymarket_leaderboard tool answers, at 1 credit a call.

Ask your agent
Which Polymarket wallets have a 100% hit rate over at least 50 resolved markets but less than 1% return on their volume?

Polymarket trader profile: realized PnL 24h/7d/30d/all, hit rate, categories

Recipe 6

Copy-trade a Polymarket wallet

Recipe 8

Example response
[  {    "rank": 1,    "proxy_wallet": "0x00041bcd345ff9a1c22fd8b53a2cf9e395d2f2ff",    "pseudonym": "Feline-Situation",    "display_name": "verte",    "realized_pnl_usd": 12.84,    "realized_pnl_window_usd": 12.84,    "resolved_markets": 57,    "hit_rate": 1.0,    "hit_rate_ci": 0.031571,    "volume_all_usd": 9983.47,    "volume_window_usd": 9983.47,    "trades_all": 58,    "trades_window": 58,    "avg_trade_usd": 172.13,    "markets": 58,    "first_seen": "2026-01-04T16:30:21.000Z",    "last_seen": "2026-09-02T16:21:25.000Z",    "tags": []  },  {    "rank": 2,    "proxy_wallet": "0x0018bb81d78f3e2756a8db69804e2a937695d76d",    "pseudonym": "",    "display_name": "",    "realized_pnl_usd": 2.9,    "realized_pnl_window_usd": 2.9,    "resolved_markets": 59,    "hit_rate": 1.0,    "hit_rate_ci": 0.030566,    "volume_all_usd": 571.82,    "volume_window_usd": 571.82,    "trades_all": 59,    "trades_window": 59,    "avg_trade_usd": 9.69,    "markets": 59,    "first_seen": "2026-01-31T06:53:56.000Z",    "last_seen": "2026-05-08T09:23:33.000Z",    "tags": []  },  {    "rank": 3,    "proxy_wallet": "0x00348272b47380239d688a6ca741121f2b50d53d",    "pseudonym": "",    "display_name": "",    "realized_pnl_usd": 2.23,    "realized_pnl_window_usd": 2.23,    "resolved_markets": 102,    "hit_rate": 1.0,    "hit_rate_ci": 0.018148,    "volume_all_usd": 201.96,    "volume_window_usd": 201.96,    "trades_all": 102,    "trades_window": 102,    "avg_trade_usd": 1.98,    "markets": 102,    "first_seen": "2026-09-03T13:33:49.000Z",    "last_seen": "2026-10-09T15:08:51.000Z",    "tags": ["bot"]  }]