Fade the losing cohort: mean reversion on extreme bias

Pull a coin's hourly realized-PnL matrix with labelBasis=point_in_time, take the 3x rekt rows' bias, and test whether its extremes are followed by a move the other way in /ohlcv.

GET /v1/hl-cohorts/symbols/{symbol}/cohort-metrics with axis=pnl&labelBasis=point_in_time answers the positioning half in one call: every realized-PnL cohort of one coin for every hour, labelled as the cohort stood in that hour. Keep the 3x rekt rows (the bottom 5% of wallets by realized PnL), flag the hours where their bias is extreme against its own recent range, and compare the following hours' return from /v1/hyperliquid/ohlcv; fading means taking the side opposite to the cohort's. The full parameter list is on Coin cohort metrics.

Quick answer

One pinned week of BTC, ending at 23:59:59 so its last hour is kept.

cURL

# BTC's hourly pnl-cohort matrix over one week, labels as they were each hour
curl -H "X-API-Key: $VIKE_API_KEY" \
  "https://data.vike.io/v1/hl-cohorts/symbols/BTC/cohort-metrics?axis=pnl&labelBasis=point_in_time&start=2026-10-13T00:00:00Z&end=2026-10-19T23:59:59Z&hours=168"

Example response

Captured from the live API on 2026-10-24 at 17:19 UTC, trimmed to 3 rows of the newest hour; metrics holds 2,184 rows, 13 cohorts for each of 168 hours. bias is (long - short) / (long + short) of the cohort's BTC notional, from -1 (all short) to +1 (all long). 3x rekt held $988M of BTC at 23:00 with a bias of +0.054; across 2026-10-19 it moved between -0.031 and +0.061. 2x rekt sat at +0.75, far more one-sided, on a book an eighth the size. The label_computed block is trimmed; it says the labels are point-in-time and have no lookahead.

Example response

{
  "axis": "pnl",
  "label_basis": "point_in_time",
  "metrics": [
    {
      "ts": "2026-10-19T23:00:00+00:00",
      "cohort": "3x smart",
      "position_count": 724,
      "position_count_long": 397,
      "total_position_value": 1622275945.0,
      "total_position_value_long": 645434396.5,
      "total_unrealized_pnl": -18349747.21,
      "total_position_size": 19767.21962,
      "total_position_size_long": 7864.53346,
      "bias": -0.2042853146,
      "label_basis": "point_in_time",
      "grading": "realized"
    },
    {
      "ts": "2026-10-19T23:00:00+00:00",
      "cohort": "2x rekt",
      "position_count": 1686,
      "position_count_long": 1097,
      "total_position_value": 125699455.6,
      "total_position_value_long": 110072507.8,
      "total_unrealized_pnl": 8678579.196,
      "total_position_size": 1531.6326,
      "total_position_size_long": 1341.22024,
      "bias": 0.7513601367,
      "label_basis": "point_in_time",
      "grading": "realized"
    },
    {
      "ts": "2026-10-19T23:00:00+00:00",
      "cohort": "3x rekt",
      "position_count": 2084,
      "position_count_long": 1303,
      "total_position_value": 987879299.8,
      "total_position_value_long": 520683225.3,
      "total_unrealized_pnl": -4208030.893,
      "total_position_size": 12037.18714,
      "total_position_size_long": 6344.45871,
      "bias": 0.0541434068,
      "label_basis": "point_in_time",
      "grading": "realized"
    }
  ],
  "hours": 168,
  "unavailable_fields": [],
  "nextCursor": "eyJtIjoiY29ob3J0X21ldHJpY3MiLCJ0IjoiMjAyNi0xMC0xMyAwMDowMDowMCJ9",
  "grading": "realized"
}

Variations

The candles to score it. Hourly bars, oldest first, with a few hours past the window for the forward return. end is exclusive here.

cURL — 1h candles

# BTC hourly candles over the same week plus six hours
curl -H "X-API-Key: $VIKE_API_KEY" \
  "https://data.vike.io/v1/hyperliquid/ohlcv?symbol=BTC&interval=1h&start=2026-10-13T00:00:00Z&end=2026-10-20T06:00:00Z&limit=200"

The week before. One pinned week per call keeps every answer to one page; step start and end back a week at a time.

cURL — earlier week

# the week of 2026-10-06
curl -H "X-API-Key: $VIKE_API_KEY" \
  "https://data.vike.io/v1/hl-cohorts/symbols/BTC/cohort-metrics?axis=pnl&labelBasis=point_in_time&start=2026-10-06T00:00:00Z&end=2026-10-12T23:59:59Z&hours=168"

Another coin. The same matrix for ETH.

cURL — ETH

# ETH's hourly pnl-cohort matrix over the same week
curl -H "X-API-Key: $VIKE_API_KEY" \
  "https://data.vike.io/v1/hl-cohorts/symbols/ETH/cohort-metrics?axis=pnl&labelBasis=point_in_time&start=2026-10-13T00:00:00Z&end=2026-10-19T23:59:59Z&hours=168"

Before you rely on it

Without labelBasis=point_in_time the backtest looks ahead

By default the pnl cohort of a past hour is today's grading, so the losers you fade are the wallets that lost afterwards. Pass labelBasis=point_in_time and keep the window after 2026-08-06, where labels turn from daily to hourly. The labels move every hour, so a jump in bias can be wallets entering or leaving the cohort rather than trades.

end includes the bucket it falls in

A bucket counts when its hour starts at or before end, so end=2026-10-20T01:00:00Z returns the 01:00 bucket as the newest. The pinned weeks here end at 23:59:59 so that the last hour is the last full hour of the day.

Ask your agent

Connected to the Vike MCP server (https://vike.io/mcp) in Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor, ask it in plain words. The hl_cohort_metrics tool answers, with hl_ohlcv for the candles, at 1 credit a call each.

Ask your agent

Show the hourly bias of BTC's 3x rekt cohort for the week of 2026-10-13 with point-in-time labels

Fade the losing cohort: mean reversion on extreme bias

Quick answer

Example response

Variations

Before you rely on it

Ask your agent

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