Helpful-Outlay — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

61.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$221

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$60

1 position

First seen

2026-05-03

last 06-09 17:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Tech

54% — —

Other

32% 100% +$1

Crypto

14% 67% $-9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes		+91	$50	66¢	$60	+$10	06-09 17:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	1	$50	91	0	+91	open	—	06-09 17:05
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	2	$41	50	0	+50	open	—	06-09 17:07
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	1	$30	60	0	+60	open	—	06-09 17:07
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 13:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	05-03 22:06
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7?	2	$10	11	0	+11	No	$-10	05-07 12:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	05-07 05:57
Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4?	1	$5	1,250	0	+1,250	open	—	06-03 08:18
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-01 18:27
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-26 06:12
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 1?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-01 18:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-01 18:27
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 2?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-02 17:38
bitcoin above 60k on june 10 2026	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-10 07:19
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2?	1	$5	18	0	+18	open	—	06-02 11:00
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2?	1	$5	18	0	+18	open	—	06-02 11:00
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5?	1	$4	5	0	+5	No	+$1	05-05 08:54
ethereum up or down on june 8 2026	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	06-08 11:37
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	05-05 08:56
will spy dip to 735 by june 1 2026	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	06-05 10:55
spy up or down on june 8 2026	1	$3	18	0	+18	open	—	06-08 11:37
bitcoin above 66k on june 5 2026	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	06-05 10:55
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 7?	1	$1	1	0	+1	No	+$0	05-07 07:09
bitcoin above 66k on june 8 2026	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	06-08 11:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 07:19:18	bitcoin above 60k on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x57e3f7…
06-09 17:07:58	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0x173ee0…
06-09 17:07:13	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x14b4e8…
06-09 17:06:36	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0xbbe584…
06-09 17:05:55	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xf3c50b…
06-08 11:38:51	bitcoin above 66k on june 8 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbbd6d7…
06-08 11:37:09	ethereum up or down on june 8 2026	Up	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x24098d…
06-08 11:37:03	spy up or down on june 8 2026	Down	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0x746a63…
06-05 10:55:58	will spy dip to 735 by june 1 2026	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xc48c2c…
06-05 10:55:58	bitcoin above 66k on june 5 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x89a5b5…
06-03 08:18:53	Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	1,250	0¢	$5	0xe6deef…
06-02 17:38:12	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 2?	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x329d0d…
06-02 11:00:04	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2?	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xffa5af…
06-02 11:00:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2?	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xd00cfc…
06-01 18:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xa4317f…
06-01 18:27:05	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xebb884…
06-01 18:27:05	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 1?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4dfa7b…
05-26 06:12:35	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7f8789…
05-08 13:20:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xd9bba0…
05-08 07:24:28	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xedc0b8…
05-07 12:45:48	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x39e39a…
05-07 12:45:04	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xefa2f2…
05-07 07:09:39	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 7?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1a5747…
05-07 05:57:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x5b8317…
05-05 08:56:24	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0x77cea7…
05-05 08:54:22	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x293ede…
05-03 22:22:52	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xc2baca…
05-03 22:09:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x25b368…
05-03 22:06:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x49c77c…