Polymarket leaderboard & analytics — top traders and smart money
Polymarket leaderboard — top wallets by 30-day realized P&L
full leaderboard →| Wallet | Realized P&L (30D) | Hit rate | Volume (30D) | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0xa19c…de6b whalehot | +$1,001,623 | 74.0% | $1,629,103 | 11-15 17:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xf705…3ca7 whalehot | +$610,448 | 73.6% | $4,126,871 | 11-15 16:23 |
| Scarce-Railing 0x252d…c456 whalehot | +$352,193 | 57.7% | $1,539,027 | 11-15 15:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x76ec…d630 whalehot | +$243,285 | 49.9% | $180,241 | 11-15 13:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xe5e1…badc whalehot | +$228,278 | 87.4% | $716,696 | 11-02 13:58 |
| Hearty-Coast 0x731a…033f whalehot | +$177,721 | 98.7% | $798,439 | 11-15 01:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3eb…85e2 whalehot | +$169,876 | 94.3% | $668,914 | 10-25 21:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xc533…69a9 whalebothot | +$134,129 | 57.8% | $5,438,261 | 11-15 17:01 |
| Yummy-Ship 0xab15…46e5 whalehot | +$121,353 | 59.9% | $1,452,692 | 11-15 16:58 |
| Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 whalebothot | +$107,134 | 64.1% | $7,956,260 | 11-15 17:01 |
updated 17:41 UTC
Cohort size
11,930
≥$1K P&L · ≥5 resolved
Active 24h
1,297
cohort wallets
24h volume
$18.34M
1,113,574 trades
Buy / Sell
$15.4M
/
$3.0M
Markets touched
3,735
Mispricings
10+
≥3¢ delta in 24h · top 10 shown
Active markets
3,715
snap 17:41 · trades 17:37
Cohort equity curve
last 90 days · cumulative realized P&L summed across all cohort wallets · scoped to Crypto · +$25,497,869Mispricings — smart money's avg fill vs current mid
last 24h · markets where the cohort bought at a meaningful discount to the current price| Market | Side | Avg buy | Now | Delta | $ flow | Wallets | Last buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12PM ET | NO | 58¢ | 92¢ | +33.4¢ | $1,775 | 23 | 11-15 17:37 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 November 9-15? | NO | 58¢ | 89¢ | +31.9¢ | $28,383 | 17 | 11-15 17:02 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12PM ET | NO | 54¢ | 82¢ | +28.8¢ | $2,442 | 43 | 11-15 17:37 |
| Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on November 15? | NO | 33¢ | 62¢ | +28.3¢ | $536 | 6 | 11-15 17:21 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 November 9-15? | NO | 60¢ | 84¢ | +24.0¢ | $48,678 | 30 | 11-15 17:16 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on November 17? | YES | 65¢ | 87¢ | +21.4¢ | $2,620 | 10 | 11-15 17:25 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on November 18? | YES | 66¢ | 84¢ | +17.4¢ | $1,100 | 7 | 11-15 16:32 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 November 9-15? | NO | 78¢ | 95¢ | +17.1¢ | $64,176 | 26 | 11-15 17:34 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on November 21? | YES | 61¢ | 78¢ | +16.3¢ | $2,524 | 4 | 11-15 09:11 |
| Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on November 16? | YES | 70¢ | 86¢ | +16.3¢ | $172 | 3 | 11-15 08:30 |
Newly resolved (last 72h)
markets that just settled where cohort wallets had positions — smart money just got paid (or burned)| Market | Winner | Resolved | Cohort wallets | Cohort vol | Cohort P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana Up or Down - November 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Down | 11-15 16:41 | 30 | $333 | -$9 |
| XRP Up or Down - November 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Down | 11-15 16:41 | 23 | $300 | -$33 |
| Dogecoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Down | 11-15 16:41 | 9 | $75 | -$2 |
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Down | 11-15 16:41 | 6 | $16 | +$1 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Down | 11-15 16:41 | 79 | $2,349 | -$246 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Down | 11-15 16:41 | 255 | $36,034 | -$65 |
| Solana Up or Down - November 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Down | 11-15 16:36 | 39 | $1,106 | +$68 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Down | 11-15 16:36 | 83 | $8,024 | -$577 |
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Down | 11-15 16:36 | 7 | $31 | +$4 |
| XRP Up or Down - November 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Down | 11-15 16:36 | 38 | $1,242 | -$143 |
Smart-money flow (last 1H)
1H 6H 24H cohort: ≥$1K P&L, ≥5 resolved · full feed → · unusual bets →| Market | Wallets | Buy inflow | Sell outflow | Net flow | Trades | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET | 202 | $37,847 | -$4,719 | +$33,129 | 1640 | 1¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET | 184 | $34,220 | -$3,825 | +$30,395 | 3894 | 99¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | 287 | $29,933 | -$5,159 | +$24,774 | 3227 | 99¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | 240 | $25,525 | -$4,172 | +$21,353 | 2239 | 99¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | 228 | $23,062 | -$6,132 | +$16,930 | 2656 | 98¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | 234 | $21,972 | -$5,968 | +$16,004 | 2464 | 98¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | 228 | $20,241 | -$4,421 | +$15,821 | 2521 | 99¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | 235 | $18,198 | -$2,606 | +$15,592 | 2028 | 2¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | 196 | $17,480 | -$2,133 | +$15,347 | 1505 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET | 130 | $15,196 | -$1,653 | +$13,543 | 1536 | 98¢ |
Cohort heatmap — top markets × P&L tier (24h)
cell = YES-buy share · opacity = $ size · full heatmap →| Market | 🎯 Top 1% | 🏆 Top 5% | ✅ Top 10% | Median | Below median | ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 🔻 Bottom 5% | 💀 Bottom 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? | 64% | 48% | 30% | 52% | 13% | 64% | 57% | 33% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on November 15? | 35% | 27% | 29% | 45% | 50% | 32% | 71% | 46% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 15? | 10% | 10% | 47% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 78% | 24% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 November 9-15? | 52% | 32% | 53% | 54% | 23% | 11% | 25% | 26% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 16% | 9% | 27% | 66% | 85% | 49% | 7% | 2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 November 9-15? | 31% | 11% | 51% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 34% | 1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November? | 2% | 32% | 0% | 2% | 69% | 62% | 10% | 55% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 40% | 49% | 28% | 62% | 94% | 28% | 82% | 68% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on November 15? | 2% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 12% | 11% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 1% | 23% | 2% | 59% | 29% | 15% | 58% |
Polymarket
Top 30 by 24h volume · SMI = top-1% YES-buy share − overall YES-buy share (last 7d)| Market | Yes (bid / ask) | No (bid / ask) | 24h Vol | SMI | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 8.7 / 8.8¢ | 91.2 / 91.3¢ | $389,204 | +2.7¢ | Jan 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 34.0 / 35.0¢ | 65.0 / 66.0¢ | $345,485 | +0.5¢ | Jan 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 16.3 / 16.4¢ | 83.6 / 83.7¢ | $288,272 | +0.9¢ | Jan 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 November 9-15? ↗ | 15.4 / 17.5¢ | 82.5 / 84.6¢ | $243,261 | +2.1¢ | Nov 16 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 5.0 / 6.0¢ | 94.0 / 95.0¢ | $211,116 | +2.2¢ | Jan 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 November 9-15? ↗ | 3.8 / 6.0¢ | 94.0 / 96.2¢ | $186,947 | +3.3¢ | Nov 16 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? ↗ | 45.0 / 46.0¢ | 54.0 / 55.0¢ | $181,423 | +7.3¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 November 9-15? ↗ | 0.9 / 1.7¢ | 98.3 / 99.1¢ | $152,093 | +3.5¢ | Nov 16 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 61.0 / 62.0¢ | 38.0 / 39.0¢ | $135,189 | -1.4¢ | Jan 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in November? ↗ | 27.6 / 27.7¢ | 72.3 / 72.4¢ | $115,949 | +4.1¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November? ↗ | 4.2 / 4.5¢ | 95.5 / 95.8¢ | $114,800 | -1.9¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in November? ↗ | 17.4 / 17.7¢ | 82.3 / 82.6¢ | $101,255 | -0.1¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 4.9 / 5.0¢ | 95.0 / 95.1¢ | $94,796 | +3.0¢ | Jan 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November? ↗ | 61.0 / 62.0¢ | 38.0 / 39.0¢ | $92,593 | +7.6¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in November? ↗ | 3.2 / 3.3¢ | 96.7 / 96.8¢ | $87,546 | -2.8¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in November? ↗ | 35.0 / 36.0¢ | 64.0 / 65.0¢ | $80,229 | +5.8¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 November 9-15? ↗ | 9.2 / 11.9¢ | 88.1 / 90.8¢ | $75,612 | +2.2¢ | Nov 16 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 November 9-15? ↗ | 0.3 / 0.6¢ | 99.4 / 99.7¢ | $74,598 | +0.1¢ | Nov 16 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in November? ↗ | 20.0 / 21.0¢ | 79.0 / 80.0¢ | $73,908 | -0.9¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in November? ↗ | 7.5 / 7.7¢ | 92.3 / 92.5¢ | $73,311 | -2.6¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 November 9-15? ↗ | 2.0 / 2.4¢ | 97.6 / 98.0¢ | $70,508 | -0.8¢ | Nov 16 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in November? ↗ | 9.0 / 10.0¢ | 90.0 / 91.0¢ | $60,998 | +2.5¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 3.4 / 3.5¢ | 96.5 / 96.6¢ | $58,392 | -0.6¢ | Jan 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in November? ↗ | 11.0 / 12.0¢ | 88.0 / 89.0¢ | $58,322 | +4.3¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 7.7 / 9.2¢ | 90.8 / 92.3¢ | $57,423 | -8.6¢ | Jan 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 2.2 / 2.3¢ | 97.7 / 97.8¢ | $53,006 | +3.1¢ | Jan 01 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in November? ↗ | 10.2 / 10.9¢ | 89.1 / 89.8¢ | $49,165 | +0.7¢ | Dec 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on November 15? ↗ | 2.3 / 2.9¢ | 97.1 / 97.7¢ | $48,931 | -1.9¢ | Nov 16 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 November 9-15? ↗ | 0.2 / 0.8¢ | 99.2 / 99.8¢ | $47,815 | +0.9¢ | Nov 16 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on November 15? ↗ | 3.4 / 5.3¢ | 94.7 / 96.6¢ | $47,639 | — | Nov 16 |