Cohort size
5
≥$1K P&L · ≥5 resolved
Active 24h
5
cohort wallets
24h volume
$91.4K
2,267 trades
Buy / Sell
$77K
/
$15K
Markets touched
422
Mispricings
3
≥3¢ delta in 24h
Active markets
45,121
snap 12:31 · trades 12:30
Mispricings — smart money's avg fill vs current mid
last 24h · markets where the cohort bought at a meaningful discount to the current price| Market | Side | Avg buy | Now | Delta | $ flow | Wallets | Last buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET | YES | 47¢ | 96¢ | +48.9¢ | $422 | 2 | 05-05 12:26 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7AM ET | YES | 92¢ | 100¢ | +8.3¢ | $969 | 1 | 05-05 11:55 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | NO | 8¢ | 12¢ | +5.0¢ | $12 | 3 | 05-05 12:26 |
Top wallets — 30D realized P&L
full leaderboard →| Wallet | Realized P&L (30D) | Hit rate | Resolved (30D) | Volume (30D) | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General-School 0x01ca…200d hotnew | +$9,006 | 69.7% | 19 | $14,390 | 05-05 08:01 |
| Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 hotnew | +$2,412 | 68.2% | 157 | $34,078 | 05-05 12:30 |
| Different-Connection 0x9ac8…d27c new | +$2,404 | 100.0% | 3 | $2,803 | 05-05 08:51 |
| Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc bothotnew | +$2,306 | 75.2% | 152 | $21,230 | 05-05 12:30 |
| Warm-Mosquito 0x52b6…6fba hotnew | +$1,981 | 65.0% | 12 | $1,970 | 05-05 08:06 |
Newly resolved (last 72h)
markets that just settled where cohort wallets had positions — smart money just got paid (or burned)| Market | Winner | Resolved | Cohort wallets | Cohort vol | Cohort P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Down | 05-05 06:25 | 2 | $38 | $-38 |
| Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Down | 05-05 06:25 | 1 | $5 | +$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Down | 05-05 06:25 | 1 | $129 | +$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Down | 05-05 06:20 | 2 | $549 | +$373 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Down | 05-05 06:20 | 1 | $9 | +$12 |
| XRP Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Down | 05-05 06:20 | 2 | $36 | +$34 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | Up | 05-05 06:15 | 2 | $814 | $-616 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | Up | 05-05 06:15 | 2 | $480 | $-480 |
| XRP Up or Down - May 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | Up | 05-05 06:15 | 1 | $5 | +$5 |
| Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | Down | 05-05 06:15 | 1 | $8 | +$5 |
Smart-money flow (last 1H)
1H 6H 24H cohort: ≥$1K P&L, ≥5 resolved · full feed →| Market | Wallets | Buy inflow | Sell outflow | Net flow | Trades | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET | 2 | $1,255 | — | +$1,255 | 16 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | 3 | $997 | — | +$997 | 6 | 88¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | 1 | $938 | — | +$938 | 15 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET | 2 | $841 | — | +$841 | 30 | 96¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7AM ET | 1 | $773 | — | +$773 | 4 | 100¢ |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | 1 | $667 | — | +$667 | 8 | 0¢ |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7AM ET | 1 | $528 | — | +$528 | 11 | 100¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET | 2 | $496 | — | +$496 | 23 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET | 2 | $463 | — | +$463 | 19 | 99¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET | 1 | $388 | — | +$388 | 1 | 88¢ |
Polymarket
Top 30 by 24h volume| Market | Yes (bid / ask) | No (bid / ask) | 24h Vol | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 1.3 / 1.4¢ | 98.6 / 98.7¢ | $5,821,653 | Jul 01 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? ↗ | 0.1 / 0.2¢ | 99.8 / 99.9¢ | $379,282 | May 05 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? ↗ | 99.8 / 99.9¢ | 0.1 / 0.2¢ | $286,878 | May 05 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $238,976 | May 05 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? ↗ | 92.0 / 93.0¢ | 7.0 / 8.0¢ | $221,629 | May 05 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? ↗ | 0.2 / 0.3¢ | 99.7 / 99.8¢ | $200,512 | Oct 31 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? ↗ | 10.0 / 12.0¢ | 88.0 / 90.0¢ | $199,171 | May 15 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $191,642 | May 05 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? ↗ | 99.4 / 99.5¢ | 0.5 / 0.6¢ | $182,366 | May 05 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? ↗ | 0.4 / 0.5¢ | 99.5 / 99.6¢ | $163,298 | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? ↗ | 63.0 / 64.0¢ | 36.0 / 37.0¢ | $146,123 | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? ↗ | 0.9 / 1.5¢ | 98.5 / 99.1¢ | $144,857 | May 05 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $131,031 | May 05 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 1.8 / 2.0¢ | 98.0 / 98.2¢ | $117,520 | Jul 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? ↗ | 25.0 / 26.0¢ | 74.0 / 75.0¢ | $109,904 | Jun 01 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? ↗ | 27.0 / 28.0¢ | 72.0 / 73.0¢ | $109,714 | May 15 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 5? ↗ | 92.0 / 93.0¢ | 7.0 / 8.0¢ | $107,893 | May 05 |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? ↗ | 0.6 / 0.7¢ | 99.3 / 99.4¢ | $106,346 | Jul 20 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? ↗ | 6.0 / 7.0¢ | 93.0 / 94.0¢ | $98,526 | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 7? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $97,408 | May 07 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? ↗ | 20.0 / 21.0¢ | 79.0 / 80.0¢ | $95,146 | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $92,881 | May 06 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? ↗ | 18.7 / 18.9¢ | 81.1 / 81.3¢ | $91,558 | May 05 |
| Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? ↗ | 95.2 / 98.4¢ | 1.6 / 4.8¢ | $86,185 | Jan 01 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $81,964 | May 05 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? ↗ | 4.4 / 4.5¢ | 95.5 / 95.6¢ | $80,535 | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 5? ↗ | — / 0.2¢ | 99.8 / —¢ | $79,889 | May 05 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? ↗ | 3.7 / 3.8¢ | 96.2 / 96.3¢ | $77,364 | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? ↗ | 8.0 / 9.0¢ | 91.0 / 92.0¢ | $76,983 | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? ↗ | 49.0 / 50.0¢ | 50.0 / 51.0¢ | $73,189 | Jun 01 |