Cohort size
120
≥$1K P&L · ≥5 resolved
Active 24h
83
cohort wallets
24h volume
$778.9K
47,433 trades
Buy / Sell
$741K
/
$38K
Markets touched
1,717
Mispricings
4
≥3¢ delta in 24h
Active markets
57,423
snap 19:20 · trades 19:20
Cohort equity curve
last 90 days · cumulative realized P&L summed across all cohort wallets · scoped to Crypto · +$337,287Mispricings — smart money's avg fill vs current mid
last 24h · markets where the cohort bought at a meaningful discount to the current price| Market | Side | Avg buy | Now | Delta | $ flow | Wallets | Last buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? | NO | 93¢ | 100¢ | +7.2¢ | $467 | 3 | 05-15 13:12 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? | YES | 95¢ | 100¢ | +4.6¢ | $790 | 2 | 05-15 15:39 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15? | NO | 96¢ | 100¢ | +4.0¢ | $447 | 1 | 05-15 13:01 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 15? | NO | 97¢ | 100¢ | +3.3¢ | $1,540 | 1 | 05-14 23:46 |
Top wallets — 30D realized P&L
full leaderboard →| Wallet | Realized P&L (30D) | Hit rate | Resolved (30D) | Volume (30D) | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 whalehot | +$17,519 | 57.6% | 5281 | $912,404 | 05-15 19:08 |
| Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 whalehot | +$14,956 | 76.8% | 3703 | $1,241,580 | 05-15 19:10 |
| Memorable-Incision 0x780c…3b11 hotnew | +$14,643 | 62.0% | 19 | $26,861 | 05-14 05:00 |
| Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc whalebothot | +$13,626 | 55.5% | 4599 | $532,439 | 05-15 19:08 |
| Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694 whalehot | +$9,513 | 51.2% | 1736 | $430,633 | 05-15 19:08 |
Newly resolved (last 72h)
markets that just settled where cohort wallets had positions — smart money just got paid (or burned)| Market | Winner | Resolved | Cohort wallets | Cohort vol | Cohort P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-14 06:30 | 13 | $936 | +$113 |
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-14 06:30 | 1 | $4 | +$6 |
| Solana Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-14 06:30 | 5 | $113 | +$98 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-14 06:30 | 9 | $165 | +$86 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-14 06:30 | 21 | $1,478 | +$757 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-14 06:30 | 8 | $426 | +$223 |
| XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-14 06:30 | 7 | $52 | $-4 |
| XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-14 06:30 | 3 | $54 | +$32 |
| Solana Up or Down - May 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Down | 05-14 06:30 | 7 | $332 | +$16 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Up | 05-14 06:25 | 19 | $1,156 | $-106 |
Smart-money flow (last 1H)
1H 6H 24H cohort: ≥$1K P&L, ≥5 resolved · full feed →| Market | Wallets | Buy inflow | Sell outflow | Net flow | Trades | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | 21 | $3,633 | -$31 | +$3,602 | 88 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET | 19 | $2,495 | -$21 | +$2,474 | 56 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | 28 | $1,955 | -$29 | +$1,926 | 117 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | 14 | $1,585 | -$2 | +$1,582 | 58 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | 16 | $1,197 | -$1 | +$1,196 | 56 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET | 12 | $1,236 | -$77 | +$1,158 | 63 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | 20 | $1,159 | -$12 | +$1,146 | 62 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | 19 | $1,076 | -$11 | +$1,065 | 62 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET | 16 | $842 | -$73 | +$769 | 105 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | 17 | $840 | -$128 | +$711 | 126 | 0¢ |
Cohort heatmap — top markets × P&L tier (24h)
cell = YES-buy share · opacity = $ size · full heatmap →| Market | 🎯 Top 1% | 🏆 Top 5% | ✅ Top 10% | Median | Below median | ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 🔻 Bottom 5% | 💀 Bottom 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15? | — | 0% | 4% | 0% | 61% | — | — | 0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? | — | 0% | — | 0% | 0% | — | 100% | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? | — | 100% | 95% | 100% | 97% | 0% | — | — |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | — | 69% | 2% | 44% | 9% | 96% | 93% | 69% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? | 39% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 26% | 100% | 74% | 100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? | 42% | 18% | 9% | 9% | 77% | 47% | 72% | 41% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? | — | — | 0% | 0% | — | — | 100% | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? | 64% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 53% | 100% | 3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? | 0% | 99% | 100% | 99% | 99% | 28% | 71% | 71% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 16? | — | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | — | — | — |
Polymarket
Top 30 by 24h volume · SMI = top-1% YES-buy share − overall YES-buy share (last 7d)| Market | Yes (bid / ask) | No (bid / ask) | 24h Vol | SMI | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 0.9 / 1.0¢ | 99.0 / 99.1¢ | $5,821,653 | -2.2¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? ↗ | 0.2 / 0.3¢ | 99.7 / 99.8¢ | $728,784 | — | Jun 01 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? ↗ | 54.0 / 55.0¢ | 45.0 / 46.0¢ | $350,559 | -37.8¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? ↗ | 2.3 / 2.4¢ | 97.6 / 97.7¢ | $131,475 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? ↗ | 5.0 / 6.0¢ | 94.0 / 95.0¢ | $128,358 | +18.4¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? ↗ | 47.0 / 48.0¢ | 52.0 / 53.0¢ | $95,695 | +34.5¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? ↗ | 13.0 / 14.0¢ | 86.0 / 87.0¢ | $92,862 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $83,332 | — | May 15 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? ↗ | 29.0 / 30.0¢ | 70.0 / 71.0¢ | $82,833 | -22.6¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? ↗ | 3.3 / 3.4¢ | 96.6 / 96.7¢ | $61,589 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $55,407 | +0.6¢ | May 15 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? ↗ | 43.0 / 46.0¢ | 54.0 / 57.0¢ | $52,637 | — | May 18 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 75.0 / 75.5¢ | 24.5 / 25.0¢ | $43,114 | -57.8¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 15? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $42,760 | — | May 15 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? ↗ | 1.8 / 1.9¢ | 98.1 / 98.2¢ | $40,534 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? ↗ | 3.2 / 5.0¢ | 95.0 / 96.8¢ | $39,224 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? ↗ | 1.3 / 1.4¢ | 98.6 / 98.7¢ | $37,177 | -2.2¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? ↗ | 0.4 / 0.5¢ | 99.5 / 99.6¢ | $35,800 | — | May 18 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? ↗ | 0.1 / 0.2¢ | 99.8 / 99.9¢ | $35,424 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? ↗ | 0.5 / 0.6¢ | 99.4 / 99.5¢ | $31,591 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $30,316 | — | May 15 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? ↗ | 0.4 / 1.1¢ | 98.9 / 99.6¢ | $30,053 | — | May 18 |
| Will Solana dip to $50 in May? ↗ | 1.0 / 1.1¢ | 98.9 / 99.0¢ | $26,505 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? ↗ | 0.5 / 0.8¢ | 99.2 / 99.5¢ | $26,490 | — | May 18 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $25,108 | — | May 15 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? ↗ | 0.9 / 1.0¢ | 99.0 / 99.1¢ | $24,231 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? ↗ | 1.0 / 1.2¢ | 98.8 / 99.0¢ | $22,572 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? ↗ | 99.9 / —¢ | — / 0.1¢ | $22,438 | — | May 15 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $21,876 | — | May 16 |
| Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 1.8 / 1.9¢ | 98.1 / 98.2¢ | $21,210 | — | Jul 01 |