Cohort size
125
≥$1K P&L · ≥5 resolved
Active 24h
65
cohort wallets
24h volume
$618.4K
44,612 trades
Buy / Sell
$587K
/
$31K
Markets touched
1,776
Mispricings
0
≥3¢ delta in 24h
Active markets
57,423
snap 13:47 · trades 13:51
Cohort equity curve
last 90 days · cumulative realized P&L summed across all cohort wallets · scoped to Crypto · +$346,684Top wallets — 30D realized P&L
full leaderboard →| Wallet | Realized P&L (30D) | Hit rate | Volume (30D) | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4 whalehot | +$17,519 | 57.6% | $1,472,261 | 05-25 13:36 |
| Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30 whalehot | +$14,956 | 76.8% | $2,306,852 | 05-25 13:41 |
| Memorable-Incision 0x780c…3b11 hot | +$14,643 | 62.0% | $26,861 | 05-14 05:00 |
| Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc whalebothot | +$13,626 | 55.5% | $887,153 | 05-25 13:41 |
| Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694 whalehot | +$9,513 | 51.2% | $654,854 | 05-25 13:36 |
Smart-money flow (last 1H)
1H 6H 24H cohort: ≥$1K P&L, ≥5 resolved · full feed →| Market | Wallets | Buy inflow | Sell outflow | Net flow | Trades | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | 11 | $644 | -$12 | +$631 | 25 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | 12 | $520 | -$12 | +$508 | 24 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | 12 | $479 | -$28 | +$452 | 18 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | 12 | $433 | — | +$433 | 16 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | 13 | $409 | -$0 | +$409 | 29 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET | 13 | $381 | — | +$381 | 19 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET | 7 | $297 | — | +$297 | 14 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | 5 | $227 | — | +$227 | 5 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | 7 | $210 | — | +$210 | 14 | 0¢ |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET | 6 | $208 | -$1 | +$207 | 10 | 0¢ |
Cohort heatmap — top markets × P&L tier (24h)
cell = YES-buy share · opacity = $ size · full heatmap →| Market | 🎯 Top 1% | 🏆 Top 5% | ✅ Top 10% | Median | Below median | ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 🔻 Bottom 5% | 💀 Bottom 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? | — | — | — | 2% | 0% | — | — | — |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | 100% | — | — |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | — | 28% | — | 10% | 2% | 0% | — | 0% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | — | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | — | 100% | — | 0% | 100% | — | — | 100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? | — | — | — | 0% | 0% | — | — | — |
| Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? | — | 0% | — | 99% | 100% | — | — | — |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? | — | — | — | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | 100% | — | — |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? | — | — | — | 0% | — | — | — | — |
Polymarket
Top 30 by 24h volume · SMI = top-1% YES-buy share − overall YES-buy share (last 7d)| Market | Yes (bid / ask) | No (bid / ask) | 24h Vol | SMI | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 0.6 / 0.7¢ | 99.3 / 99.4¢ | $5,821,653 | -1.9¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $728,784 | -0.1¢ | Jun 01 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? ↗ | 9.0 / 10.0¢ | 90.0 / 91.0¢ | $350,559 | -12.4¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? ↗ | 0.3 / 0.4¢ | 99.6 / 99.7¢ | $131,475 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? ↗ | 0.6 / 0.7¢ | 99.3 / 99.4¢ | $128,358 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? ↗ | 49.2 / 49.3¢ | 50.7 / 50.8¢ | $119,054 | — | Jul 31 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? ↗ | 3.5 / 3.6¢ | 96.4 / 96.5¢ | $92,862 | -10.4¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? ↗ | 3.2 / 3.3¢ | 96.7 / 96.8¢ | $82,833 | -12.0¢ | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? ↗ | 0.9 / 1.1¢ | 98.9 / 99.1¢ | $61,589 | +90.3¢ | Jun 01 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 36.3 / 36.4¢ | 63.6 / 63.7¢ | $43,114 | -56.3¢ | Jul 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? ↗ | 0.8 / 1.0¢ | 99.0 / 99.2¢ | $40,534 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? ↗ | 0.5 / 0.8¢ | 99.2 / 99.5¢ | $39,224 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? ↗ | 0.2 / 0.3¢ | 99.7 / 99.8¢ | $37,177 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $35,424 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $31,591 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Solana dip to $50 in May? ↗ | 0.2 / 0.3¢ | 99.7 / 99.8¢ | $26,505 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? ↗ | 0.2 / 0.3¢ | 99.7 / 99.8¢ | $24,231 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? ↗ | 0.1 / 0.2¢ | 99.8 / 99.9¢ | $22,572 | — | Jun 01 |
| Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? ↗ | 0.7 / 0.9¢ | 99.1 / 99.3¢ | $21,210 | — | Jul 01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $21,175 | — | Jun 01 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? ↗ | 75.0 / 76.0¢ | 24.0 / 25.0¢ | $19,735 | — | Jul 01 |
| Will Solana reach $130 in May? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $19,684 | — | Jun 01 |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? ↗ | 38.0 / 40.0¢ | 60.0 / 62.0¢ | $18,676 | — | Jan 01 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? ↗ | 8.2 / 8.3¢ | 91.7 / 91.8¢ | $16,536 | — | Jan 01 |
| Will Solana reach $170 in May? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $14,747 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? ↗ | 0.1 / 0.2¢ | 99.8 / 99.9¢ | $13,513 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $12,750 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Solana reach $100 in May? ↗ | 3.0 / 3.1¢ | 96.9 / 97.0¢ | $12,700 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? ↗ | — / 0.1¢ | 99.9 / —¢ | $12,687 | — | Jun 01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? ↗ | 0.7 / 0.8¢ | 99.2 / 99.3¢ | $12,537 | — | Jun 01 |