Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,172,300
$6,493 in 24h
Trades
8,268
Unique wallets
1,083
Liquidity
$67,336
Latest YES mid
34¢
Latest NO mid
66¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-29 21:23
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-42.0¢
(top1%: 3% YES on $309.7K
vs crowd: 45% YES on $873.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 57 | $123.2K | $367.1K | $243.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 108 | $93.8K | $63.0K | +$30.9K |
| 🐟 Fish | 293 | $114.0K | $43.2K | +$70.8K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 625 | $59.8K | $9.0K | +$50.8K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 23 | $8.6K | $301.1K | $292.4K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 66 | $7.5K | $7.1K | +$414 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 52 | $10.7K | $3.7K | +$7.0K |
| Median | 87 | $13.1K | $1.1K | +$12.0K |
| Below median | 124 | $9.1K | $4.1K | +$5.0K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 29 | $3.5K | $5.1K | $1.5K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 36 | $5.3K | $4.2K | +$1.1K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 25 | $118.5K | $47.2K | +$71.3K |
| unranked | 641 | $214.4K | $108.7K | +$105.7K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | +420,078 | $261,625 | $261,625 | 380 | 07-28 13:48 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | Yes | +224,980 | $110,141 | $110,141 | 160 | 07-28 13:47 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | +83,465 | $38,535 | $38,535 | 141 | 07-28 20:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xafa2…0611 | Yes | +64,050 | $19,890 | $19,890 | 1 | 07-23 16:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x0a76…f8f9 | No | +44,940 | $19,838 | $19,838 | 40 | 07-02 07:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x466a…444a | Yes | +26,064 | $9,124 | $9,124 | 3 | 07-26 08:40 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +24,225 | $11,372 | $11,372 | 363 | 07-29 21:23 |
| Perfumed-Appointment 0x3f3b…1d77 | Yes | +23,529 | $8,127 | $8,127 | 20 | 07-28 15:00 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +22,729 | $11,893 | $11,893 | 374 | 07-29 20:49 |
| Hideous-Leg 0x56ad…f13e | No | +21,999 | $19,968 | $31,585 | 72 | 07-23 16:25 |
| Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | +19,921 | $14,696 | $23,713 | 34 | 07-28 15:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x861f…177d | Yes | +18,053 | $7,931 | $7,931 | 31 | 07-27 08:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x2270…6732 | Yes | +16,460 | $6,778 | $6,778 | 10 | 07-28 04:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x7683…8082 | Yes | +15,426 | $4,916 | $4,916 | 8 | 07-24 11:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xde5e…3a94 | Yes | +15,132 | $6,680 | $6,680 | 8 | 07-23 12:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bbe…b9dc | No | +12,971 | $5,549 | $7,649 | 22 | 06-05 14:03 |
| Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | +11,441 | $7,411 | $22,212 | 48 | 07-27 05:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xf705…3ca7 | Yes | +11,352 | $4,134 | $4,134 | 2 | 07-15 16:06 |
| Ill-Wing 0xe5c1…bdb9 | Yes | +11,103 | $-215 | $31,216 | 116 | 07-29 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x919e…4e9b | Yes | +10,000 | $3,500 | $3,500 | 1 | 07-25 11:10 |
| Silver-Accordion 0x66ad…cc4e | No | +10,000 | $3,500 | $3,500 | 9 | 06-26 02:16 |
| Hurtful-Cuisine 0xc56b…0e6d | Yes | +8,946 | $2,741 | $2,741 | 13 | 07-24 12:17 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +8,794 | $4,397 | $4,397 | 13 | 06-16 03:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xf011…42c6 | Yes | +8,296 | $4,131 | $4,131 | 23 | 07-10 23:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xacc9…fff2 | Yes | +8,035 | $4,420 | $5,476 | 12 | 06-30 23:25 |
| Mushy-Asymmetry 0xe738…df65 | No | +7,494 | $3,268 | $3,268 | 34 | 06-22 09:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xfdad…6162 | Yes | +7,046 | $2,619 | $2,619 | 6 | 07-15 00:07 |
| Whispered-Stencil 0x7f32…3e2c | Yes | +6,500 | $1,885 | $1,885 | 2 | 07-23 04:15 |
| Cold-Angstrom 0x57c0…60c5 | Yes | +6,284 | $3,651 | $3,651 | 2 | 06-10 04:43 |
| Pretty-Contest 0xf23d…b77a | Yes | +6,000 | $1,860 | $1,860 | 1 | 07-15 14:13 |
| Muted-Plate-Ratepayer 0x910e…1a26 | Yes | +5,987 | $1,916 | $1,916 | 3 | 07-22 14:01 |
| Competent-Bridge 0x63fb…70a2 | Yes | +5,639 | $4,040 | $9,343 | 11 | 07-01 10:51 |
| Lasting-Dessert 0x8e77…c4f3 | No | +5,000 | $3,250 | $3,250 | 1 | 07-26 08:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x867c…a0cc | Yes | +4,688 | $1,500 | $1,500 | 2 | 07-15 14:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xb1d5…5753 | Yes | +4,300 | $1,419 | $1,419 | 14 | 07-20 15:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xf5d6…b213 | Yes | +4,037 | $1,813 | $1,813 | 8 | 07-17 18:53 |
| Acidic-Taxi 0x9765…436b | Yes | +3,787 | $1,250 | $1,250 | 1 | 07-19 01:11 |
| High-Bow 0xb5aa…5bd7 | No | +3,561 | $2,087 | $5,562 | 35 | 07-13 13:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa95…2ce6 | Yes | +3,324 | $1,130 | $1,130 | 2 | 07-17 09:26 |
| Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | +3,245 | $1,136 | $1,360 | 15 | 07-24 12:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x83fa…bc7c | Yes | +3,210 | $1,801 | $3,980 | 15 | 07-23 06:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x98f6…4e6e | Yes | +3,201 | $1,710 | $1,710 | 3 | 06-16 18:41 |
| Back-Accident 0x2da5…9c11 | Yes | +3,180 | $1,113 | $1,113 | 1 | 07-25 10:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x9e3e…f882 | No | +3,126 | $2,124 | $2,124 | 3 | 07-20 15:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | No | +2,812 | $1,111 | $1,111 | 8 | 06-08 06:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 21:23:24 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 20 | 64¢ | $13 | 0xe44c17… |
| 07-29 21:23:24 | Motionless-Shout 0x2df0…0a84 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 36¢ | $15 | 0xe44c17… |
| 07-29 21:23:24 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 23 | 64¢ | $15 | 0xe44c17… |
| 07-29 21:18:12 | (anonymous) 0x1cfa…f0c6 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 35¢ | $3 | 0xd56f8f… |
| 07-29 21:18:12 | Motionless-Shout 0x2df0…0a84 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 35¢ | $5 | 0xd56f8f… |
| 07-29 21:18:12 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0xd56f8f… |
| 07-29 21:07:56 | Extraneous-Scenario 0xd6f1…dd82 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 35¢ | $4 | 0x45ae0e… |
| 07-29 21:07:56 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 10 | 65¢ | $6 | 0x45ae0e… |
| 07-29 20:51:38 | (anonymous) 0x2213…1157 | Yes | BUY | 75 | 35¢ | $26 | 0x89dde5… |
| 07-29 20:51:38 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | Yes | SELL | 75 | 35¢ | $26 | 0x89dde5… |
| 07-29 20:49:33 | Classic-Crush-Eponym 0x2667…74cf | No | BUY | 1,509 | 66¢ | $1,000 | 0xd63a8b… |
| 07-29 20:49:33 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | Yes | BUY | 100 | 34¢ | $34 | 0xd63a8b… |
| 07-29 20:49:33 | Long-Meantime 0xdcec…d169 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0xd63a8b… |
| 07-29 20:49:33 | Dim-Underwriting 0x91e5…0947 | No | SELL | 289 | 67¢ | $194 | 0xd63a8b… |
| 07-29 20:49:33 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 100 | 33¢ | $33 | 0xd63a8b… |
| 07-29 20:49:33 | Distant-Software 0x22e6…409f | Yes | BUY | 508 | 33¢ | $168 | 0xd63a8b… |
| 07-29 20:49:33 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | No | SELL | 100 | 65¢ | $65 | 0xd63a8b… |
| 07-29 20:49:33 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xd63a8b… |
| 07-29 20:49:33 | Brilliant-Valley 0x4e7d…e7a0 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 34¢ | $3 | 0xd63a8b… |
| 07-29 20:49:33 | (anonymous) 0x1cfa…f0c6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 36¢ | $2 | 0xd63a8b… |
| 07-29 20:43:33 | Motionless-Shout 0x2df0…0a84 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 38¢ | $20 | 0x0f14b0… |
| 07-29 20:43:33 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 53 | 62¢ | $33 | 0x0f14b0… |
| 07-29 20:36:02 | (anonymous) 0xb990…419d | No | BUY | 8 | 64¢ | $5 | 0x4795b9… |
| 07-29 20:36:02 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 36¢ | $3 | 0x4795b9… |
| 07-29 20:35:54 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 40 | 62¢ | $25 | 0xcb3fb0… |
| 07-29 20:35:54 | Soham-317 0xcc44…a139 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 38¢ | $15 | 0xcb3fb0… |
| 07-29 19:56:59 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 25 | 63¢ | $16 | 0x1e4fa7… |
| 07-29 19:56:59 | Thoughtful-Instrumentalist 0x97a8…97ba | Yes | BUY | 115 | 37¢ | $43 | 0x1e4fa7… |
| 07-29 19:56:59 | 0xfb9d38cac5c3b0936413b78f30664d3c224bd78e 0xfb9d…d78e | No | BUY | 48 | 63¢ | $31 | 0x1e4fa7… |
| 07-29 19:56:59 | (anonymous) 0xbfd7…f91d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 38¢ | $2 | 0x1e4fa7… |
| 07-29 19:56:59 | (anonymous) 0xb990…419d | No | BUY | 2 | 62¢ | $1 | 0x1e4fa7… |
| 07-29 19:56:59 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 20 | 62¢ | $12 | 0x1e4fa7… |
| 07-29 19:08:41 | Ill-Wing 0xe5c1…bdb9 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 36¢ | $14 | 0x736fc2… |
| 07-29 19:08:41 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 10 | 64¢ | $6 | 0x736fc2… |
| 07-29 15:19:32 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 10 | 35¢ | $4 | 0x90f861… |
| 07-29 15:19:32 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 35¢ | $4 | 0x90f861… |
| 07-29 14:29:14 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 8 | 35¢ | $3 | 0xe0b4ad… |
| 07-29 14:29:14 | (anonymous) 0xb292…c728 | No | BUY | 8 | 65¢ | $5 | 0xe0b4ad… |
| 07-29 14:28:33 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 8 | 35¢ | $3 | 0x4c480d… |
| 07-29 14:28:33 | (anonymous) 0xb990…419d | No | BUY | 15 | 65¢ | $10 | 0x4c480d… |
| 07-29 14:28:33 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 35¢ | $3 | 0x4c480d… |
| 07-29 12:03:14 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 10 | 64¢ | $6 | 0xc08e01… |
| 07-29 12:03:14 | Brilliant-Valley 0x4e7d…e7a0 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 36¢ | $4 | 0xc08e01… |
| 07-29 11:54:24 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 35¢ | $5 | 0xe9768f… |
| 07-29 11:54:24 | Dramatic-Reluctance 0x6d8f…8d48 | No | BUY | 15 | 65¢ | $10 | 0xe9768f… |
| 07-28 22:03:08 | (anonymous) 0xb990…419d | No | BUY | 8 | 62¢ | $5 | 0x8e6699… |
| 07-28 22:03:08 | Official-Locker 0x5da4…7b7d | Yes | BUY | 8 | 38¢ | $3 | 0x8e6699… |
| 07-28 20:00:28 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 36¢ | $1 | 0x2446bc… |
| 07-28 20:00:28 | (anonymous) 0xe4fa…d14f | No | BUY | 2 | 64¢ | $1 | 0x2446bc… |
| 07-28 20:00:26 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 5 | 63¢ | $3 | 0x249dc6… |
| 07-28 20:00:26 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x249dc6… |
| 07-28 19:01:46 | (anonymous) 0xbfd7…f91d | Yes | BUY | 2 | 37¢ | $1 | 0x029d8f… |
| 07-28 19:01:46 | Tight-Attacker 0xdcab…e9b8 | No | SELL | 3 | 62¢ | $2 | 0x28b641… |
| 07-28 19:01:46 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 3 | 62¢ | $2 | 0x28b641… |
| 07-28 19:01:46 | (anonymous) 0xe4fa…d14f | No | BUY | 2 | 63¢ | $1 | 0x029d8f… |
| 07-28 18:53:14 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | No | SELL | 2 | 63¢ | $1 | 0xde5c8d… |
| 07-28 18:53:14 | (anonymous) 0x234c…fd12 | No | BUY | 2 | 63¢ | $1 | 0xde5c8d… |
| 07-28 18:53:13 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | No | SELL | 2 | 63¢ | $1 | 0xba1dcb… |
| 07-28 18:53:13 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | No | SELL | 83 | 62¢ | $51 | 0x6eb849… |
| 07-28 18:53:13 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 83 | 62¢ | $51 | 0x6eb849… |
| 07-28 18:53:13 | (anonymous) 0xe4fa…d14f | No | BUY | 2 | 63¢ | $1 | 0xba1dcb… |
| 07-28 18:53:10 | (anonymous) 0x13ef…5691 | No | BUY | 16 | 62¢ | $10 | 0x39b1fa… |
| 07-28 18:53:10 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | No | SELL | 16 | 62¢ | $10 | 0x39b1fa… |
| 07-28 18:53:08 | (anonymous) 0x234c…fd12 | No | BUY | 2 | 62¢ | $1 | 0x812a9d… |
| 07-28 18:53:08 | (anonymous) 0xe4fa…d14f | No | BUY | 2 | 63¢ | $1 | 0xa52fd5… |
| 07-28 18:53:08 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | No | SELL | 2 | 63¢ | $1 | 0xa52fd5… |
| 07-28 18:53:08 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | No | SELL | 2 | 62¢ | $1 | 0x812a9d… |
| 07-28 18:53:07 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 100 | 62¢ | $62 | 0x130b5d… |
| 07-28 18:53:07 | (anonymous) 0x82a0…33a1 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 38¢ | $5 | 0x130b5d… |
| 07-28 18:53:07 | Detailed-Basin 0x45dd…1e20 | No | BUY | 50 | 62¢ | $31 | 0x130b5d… |
| 07-28 18:53:07 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 3,000 | 62¢ | $1,860 | 0x130b5d… |
| 07-28 18:53:07 | Shadowy-Sanction 0x0340…6907 | Yes | BUY | 3,775 | 38¢ | $1,434 | 0x130b5d… |
| 07-28 18:53:07 | Bright-Interconnection 0x598b…d526 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 38¢ | $5 | 0x130b5d… |
| 07-28 18:53:07 | Powerful-Headrest 0xe987…3477 | Yes | SELL | 600 | 38¢ | $228 | 0x130b5d… |
| 07-28 17:49:38 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 36¢ | $1 | 0x96e240… |
| 07-28 17:49:38 | Glass-Typewriter 0xa49b…7054 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 37¢ | $3 | 0x96e240… |
| 07-28 17:49:38 | (anonymous) 0xb990…419d | No | BUY | 16 | 63¢ | $10 | 0x96e240… |
| 07-28 16:11:05 | Ill-Wing 0xe5c1…bdb9 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x0dfb90… |
| 07-28 16:11:05 | (anonymous) 0xe4fa…d14f | No | SELL | 6 | 63¢ | $4 | 0x0dfb90… |
| 07-28 16:10:46 | (anonymous) 0xe4fa…d14f | Yes | SELL | 11 | 36¢ | $4 | 0x52cd0e… |
| 07-28 16:10:46 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | No | SELL | 6 | 64¢ | $4 | 0x52cd0e… |
| 07-28 16:10:46 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 36¢ | $2 | 0x52cd0e… |
| 07-28 16:03:47 | Ill-Wing 0xe5c1…bdb9 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 37¢ | $8 | 0x2a2d96… |
| 07-28 16:03:47 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | Yes | SELL | 100 | 37¢ | $37 | 0x2a2d96… |
| 07-28 16:03:47 | Quirky-Stretch 0xfef9…c4c5 | Yes | BUY | 122 | 37¢ | $45 | 0x2a2d96… |
| 07-28 15:38:47 | (anonymous) 0xbfd7…f91d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0xe4489a… |
| 07-28 15:38:47 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 18 | 63¢ | $11 | 0xe4489a… |
| 07-28 15:38:47 | Bright-Interconnection 0x598b…d526 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 37¢ | $5 | 0xe4489a… |
| 07-28 15:38:44 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | SELL | 117 | 65¢ | $76 | 0x0aaeee… |
| 07-28 15:38:44 | (anonymous) 0xbfd7…f91d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x0aaeee… |
| 07-28 15:38:44 | Bright-Interconnection 0x598b…d526 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 37¢ | $5 | 0x0aaeee… |
| 07-28 15:38:44 | Sour-Conspiracy 0x084a…2a51 | Yes | SELL | 147 | 35¢ | $52 | 0x0aaeee… |
| 07-28 15:38:44 | (anonymous) 0x82a0…33a1 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 36¢ | $4 | 0x0aaeee… |
| 07-28 15:05:59 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | SELL | 13 | 65¢ | $9 | 0x0aae63… |
| 07-28 15:05:59 | (anonymous) 0xf753…492c | Yes | SELL | 13 | 35¢ | $5 | 0x0aae63… |
| 07-28 15:00:10 | Detailed-Basin 0x45dd…1e20 | No | BUY | 100 | 64¢ | $64 | 0x5cabe4… |
| 07-28 15:00:10 | Perfumed-Appointment 0x3f3b…1d77 | Yes | BUY | 1,003 | 36¢ | $361 | 0x5cabe4… |
| 07-28 15:00:10 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 32 | 64¢ | $20 | 0x5cabe4… |
| 07-28 15:00:10 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 100 | 64¢ | $64 | 0x5cabe4… |
| 07-28 15:00:10 | Ill-Wing 0xe5c1…bdb9 | Yes | SELL | 771 | 36¢ | $278 | 0x5cabe4… |