Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$714,774
$6,493 in 24h
Trades
5,979
Unique wallets
761
Liquidity
$67,336
Latest YES mid
48¢
Latest NO mid
52¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-09 13:58
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-49.3¢
(top1%: 7% YES on $67.2K
vs crowd: 56% YES on $428.8K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 43 | $99.8K | $100.7K | $873 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 94 | $45.0K | $38.8K | +$6.1K |
| 🐟 Fish | 199 | $65.5K | $35.8K | +$29.6K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 425 | $32.0K | $11.3K | +$20.7K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 17 | $4.8K | $62.4K | $57.6K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 49 | $7.6K | $6.4K | +$1.2K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 33 | $3.9K | $3.6K | +$286 |
| Median | 58 | $1.7K | $794 | +$936 |
| Below median | 92 | $5.8K | $3.1K | +$2.6K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 25 | $1.7K | $5.0K | $3.3K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 29 | $3.1K | $4.2K | $1.1K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 22 | $95.6K | $32.4K | +$63.3K |
| unranked | 436 | $118.0K | $68.8K | +$49.2K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | Yes | +178,160 | $93,908 | $93,908 | 135 | 07-08 08:30 |
| Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | +86,225 | $44,398 | $44,398 | 87 | 07-09 13:58 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | +65,290 | $27,425 | $27,425 | 118 | 07-06 21:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x0a76…f8f9 | No | +44,940 | $19,838 | $19,838 | 40 | 07-02 07:30 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +19,042 | $8,077 | $8,077 | 298 | 07-09 12:51 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +17,920 | $10,116 | $10,116 | 283 | 07-09 01:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bbe…b9dc | No | +12,971 | $5,549 | $7,649 | 22 | 06-05 14:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xc356…8052 | Yes | +11,414 | $5,772 | $5,772 | 10 | 07-07 19:45 |
| Silver-Accordion 0x66ad…cc4e | No | +10,000 | $3,500 | $3,500 | 9 | 06-26 02:16 |
| Understated-Resist 0x2cf9…da60 | No | +9,648 | $5,431 | $5,431 | 5 | 06-03 04:36 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +8,794 | $4,397 | $4,397 | 13 | 06-16 03:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xde5e…3a94 | Yes | +8,327 | $4,000 | $4,000 | 3 | 07-09 12:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xacc9…fff2 | Yes | +8,035 | $4,420 | $5,476 | 12 | 06-30 23:25 |
| Mushy-Asymmetry 0xe738…df65 | No | +7,494 | $3,268 | $3,268 | 34 | 06-22 09:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xf011…42c6 | Yes | +7,010 | $3,553 | $3,553 | 7 | 07-06 21:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x861f…177d | Yes | +6,505 | $4,007 | $4,007 | 19 | 07-05 10:14 |
| Cold-Angstrom 0x57c0…60c5 | Yes | +6,284 | $3,651 | $3,651 | 2 | 06-10 04:43 |
| Competent-Bridge 0x63fb…70a2 | Yes | +5,639 | $4,040 | $9,343 | 11 | 07-01 10:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x2270…6732 | Yes | +4,684 | $2,306 | $2,306 | 2 | 07-08 11:34 |
| Pungent-Lot 0xa247…7175 | Yes | +4,635 | $2,383 | $5,841 | 20 | 07-09 01:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x8599…bace | No | +4,447 | $1,833 | $1,833 | 8 | 06-10 08:27 |
| Chubby-Forehead 0x2ce0…8d6f | No | +3,230 | $1,354 | $1,354 | 3 | 06-04 02:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x98f6…4e6e | Yes | +3,201 | $1,710 | $1,710 | 3 | 06-16 18:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b2e…b2fa | Yes | +2,901 | $1,622 | $1,622 | 11 | 07-06 15:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x83fa…bc7c | Yes | +2,855 | $1,690 | $3,869 | 11 | 07-07 16:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | No | +2,812 | $1,111 | $1,111 | 8 | 06-08 06:40 |
| Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | +2,618 | $1,726 | $16,527 | 35 | 07-09 10:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xfdad…6162 | Yes | +2,546 | $1,044 | $1,044 | 5 | 06-01 16:36 |
| Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | No | +2,500 | $298 | $1,663 | 2 | 06-18 14:18 |
| Scarce-Footnote 0x714f…66d5 | Yes | +2,500 | $1,520 | $1,520 | 2 | 07-01 22:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | +2,251 | $1,225 | $1,225 | 5 | 06-05 14:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xdd3f…e1ee | Yes | +2,173 | $951 | $951 | 1 | 06-02 05:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x16d4…105e | Yes | +2,061 | $1,223 | $1,223 | 14 | 07-03 01:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x0eda…fff0 | Yes | +1,994 | $957 | $957 | 1 | 07-09 06:44 |
| Puzzled-Internet 0xc2e9…e288 | No | +1,907 | $1,114 | $1,114 | 4 | 06-03 00:09 |
| Determined-Gear 0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | +1,883 | $1,015 | $1,409 | 5 | 06-24 15:43 |
| Acclaimed-Teammate 0x6d71…82e5 | No | +1,800 | $810 | $810 | 1 | 06-20 15:57 |
| Focused-Kilogram 0x9d3b…22ab | Yes | +1,634 | $866 | $866 | 6 | 06-14 19:02 |
| Good-Natured-Time 0xe328…9f4a | Yes | +1,496 | $745 | $1,375 | 23 | 07-08 15:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa03…8916 | Yes | +1,458 | $900 | $900 | 1 | 06-05 13:59 |
| Admired-Hometown 0x1c06…047c | Yes | +1,442 | $865 | $2,628 | 4 | 07-01 18:24 |
| Weary-Duplexer 0x2f64…9138 | Yes | +1,437 | $706 | $1,376 | 7 | 07-08 09:15 |
| Dark-Clan 0x6dc4…6770 | No | +1,338 | $221 | $2,060 | 9 | 07-04 19:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x2796…b4f0 | No | +1,284 | $508 | $2,842 | 22 | 07-09 08:23 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 13:58:31 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | No | SELL | 1 | 51¢ | $1 | 0xf9ff34… |
| 07-09 13:58:31 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 1 | 51¢ | $1 | 0xf9ff34… |
| 07-09 12:51:31 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 313 | 51¢ | $160 | 0x7ebdac… |
| 07-09 12:51:31 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 50 | 52¢ | $26 | 0x7ebdac… |
| 07-09 12:51:31 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 100 | 52¢ | $52 | 0x7ebdac… |
| 07-09 12:51:31 | (anonymous) 0xde5e…3a94 | Yes | BUY | 2,077 | 48¢ | $1,000 | 0x7ebdac… |
| 07-09 12:51:31 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | SELL | 106 | 48¢ | $51 | 0x7ebdac… |
| 07-09 12:51:04 | (anonymous) 0xde5e…3a94 | Yes | BUY | 4,167 | 48¢ | $2,000 | 0x03ebfa… |
| 07-09 12:51:04 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 4,167 | 52¢ | $2,167 | 0x03ebfa… |
| 07-09 12:50:37 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 2,083 | 52¢ | $1,083 | 0x6b4c55… |
| 07-09 12:50:37 | (anonymous) 0xde5e…3a94 | Yes | BUY | 2,083 | 48¢ | $1,000 | 0x6b4c55… |
| 07-09 12:11:23 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 25 | 52¢ | $13 | 0x6468b2… |
| 07-09 12:11:23 | Only-Spirituality 0x5297…7b99 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 48¢ | $12 | 0x6468b2… |
| 07-09 10:18:37 | Complex-Aim 0x446d…1995 | No | SELL | 1,887 | 53¢ | $1,000 | 0xccb9bb… |
| 07-09 10:18:37 | Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | BUY | 1,887 | 53¢ | $1,000 | 0xccb9bb… |
| 07-09 10:00:58 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x2298cb… |
| 07-09 10:00:58 | Live-Collar-Councilman 0x3477…5c42 | No | SELL | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x2298cb… |
| 07-09 08:23:26 | Awesome-Vengeance 0x5e2f…f9ba | Yes | SELL | 306 | 47¢ | $143 | 0x785f27… |
| 07-09 08:23:26 | (anonymous) 0x2796…b4f0 | No | SELL | 56 | 54¢ | $30 | 0x785f27… |
| 07-09 08:23:26 | Unnatural-Energy 0xac6a…2ed3 | No | SELL | 250 | 53¢ | $132 | 0x785f27… |
| 07-09 06:44:34 | (anonymous) 0x0eda…fff0 | Yes | BUY | 1,994 | 48¢ | $957 | 0x598282… |
| 07-09 06:44:34 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 1,994 | 52¢ | $1,037 | 0x598282… |
| 07-09 06:37:05 | Complex-Aim 0x446d…1995 | No | SELL | 1,887 | 53¢ | $1,000 | 0x21979c… |
| 07-09 06:37:05 | Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | BUY | 1,887 | 53¢ | $1,000 | 0x21979c… |
| 07-09 06:03:22 | Complex-Aim 0x446d…1995 | No | SELL | 1,887 | 53¢ | $1,000 | 0x5063b6… |
| 07-09 06:03:22 | Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | BUY | 1,887 | 53¢ | $1,000 | 0x5063b6… |
| 07-09 06:02:10 | Complex-Aim 0x446d…1995 | No | SELL | 824 | 53¢ | $437 | 0xdafe5c… |
| 07-09 06:02:10 | Ripe-Cake 0xeec5…b6fe | No | SELL | 1,000 | 53¢ | $530 | 0xdafe5c… |
| 07-09 06:02:10 | Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | BUY | 1,887 | 53¢ | $1,000 | 0xdafe5c… |
| 07-09 06:02:10 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | BUY | 63 | 47¢ | $29 | 0xdafe5c… |
| 07-09 03:56:34 | Rundown-Certificate 0x5911…28bb | Yes | SELL | 3 | 47¢ | $1 | 0x08a3fc… |
| 07-09 03:56:34 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | BUY | 3 | 47¢ | $1 | 0x08a3fc… |
| 07-09 01:33:05 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | BUY | 41 | 47¢ | $19 | 0xec7b8d… |
| 07-09 01:33:05 | Pungent-Lot 0xa247…7175 | Yes | SELL | 244 | 47¢ | $115 | 0xec7b8d… |
| 07-09 01:33:05 | Complex-Archives 0x8ce0…7df2 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 47¢ | $94 | 0xec7b8d… |
| 07-09 01:33:05 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 47¢ | $1 | 0xec7b8d… |
| 07-09 01:19:55 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 97 | 47¢ | $46 | 0x7cf9b2… |
| 07-09 01:19:55 | (anonymous) 0x11f8…e629 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 47¢ | $1 | 0x7cf9b2… |
| 07-09 01:19:55 | Pungent-Lot 0xa247…7175 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 47¢ | $47 | 0x7cf9b2… |
| 07-08 23:48:01 | Glistening-Perception-Bandolier 0xf36f…c722 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 48¢ | $24 | 0xe9008e… |
| 07-08 23:48:01 | Complex-Archives 0x8ce0…7df2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 48¢ | $5 | 0xe9008e… |
| 07-08 23:48:01 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | SELL | 123 | 52¢ | $64 | 0xe9008e… |
| 07-08 23:48:01 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 218 | 52¢ | $114 | 0xe9008e… |
| 07-08 23:48:01 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 35 | 48¢ | $17 | 0xe9008e… |
| 07-08 23:26:11 | Rundown-Certificate 0x5911…28bb | Yes | BUY | 3 | 49¢ | $1 | 0x8939e7… |
| 07-08 23:26:11 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 3 | 51¢ | $1 | 0x8939e7… |
| 07-08 22:50:58 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 48¢ | $1 | 0x0df223… |
| 07-08 22:50:58 | Rundown-Certificate 0x5911…28bb | Yes | SELL | 3 | 48¢ | $1 | 0x0df223… |
| 07-08 19:28:37 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 2 | 51¢ | $1 | 0xa62496… |
| 07-08 19:28:37 | (anonymous) 0x2318…aae3 | No | SELL | 2 | 51¢ | $1 | 0xa62496… |
| 07-08 18:44:35 | (anonymous) 0x2318…aae3 | No | BUY | 2 | 52¢ | $1 | 0x920557… |
| 07-08 18:44:35 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 48¢ | $1 | 0x920557… |
| 07-08 17:51:41 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 614 | 51¢ | $313 | 0x937136… |
| 07-08 17:51:41 | Burly-Lift 0xac0e…c0bf | No | SELL | 614 | 51¢ | $313 | 0x937136… |
| 07-08 17:22:04 | Rundown-Certificate 0x5911…28bb | Yes | BUY | 3 | 49¢ | $1 | 0x8c076c… |
| 07-08 17:22:04 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 3 | 51¢ | $1 | 0x8c076c… |
| 07-08 17:11:31 | Well-Groomed-Championship 0x2cf6…0edf | Yes | BUY | 10 | 49¢ | $5 | 0x2d4f9c… |
| 07-08 17:11:31 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 10 | 51¢ | $5 | 0x2d4f9c… |
| 07-08 16:17:31 | (anonymous) 0xe37f…a74b | No | BUY | 10 | 52¢ | $5 | 0xb8f1dd… |
| 07-08 16:17:31 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 48¢ | $5 | 0xb8f1dd… |
| 07-08 16:16:34 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 51 | 51¢ | $26 | 0x9f1c84… |
| 07-08 16:16:34 | Active-Loft 0x0a24…f55d | Yes | BUY | 51 | 49¢ | $25 | 0x9f1c84… |
| 07-08 15:33:50 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 67 | 51¢ | $34 | 0x88a64c… |
| 07-08 15:33:50 | Good-Natured-Time 0xe328…9f4a | Yes | BUY | 67 | 49¢ | $33 | 0x88a64c… |
| 07-08 15:32:14 | Closed-Rating 0x505e…affc | Yes | BUY | 51 | 49¢ | $25 | 0xf2ac37… |
| 07-08 15:32:14 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 51 | 51¢ | $26 | 0xf2ac37… |
| 07-08 11:34:56 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 2,751 | 51¢ | $1,403 | 0x79d0f7… |
| 07-08 11:34:56 | (anonymous) 0x2270…6732 | Yes | BUY | 2,751 | 49¢ | $1,348 | 0x79d0f7… |
| 07-08 10:50:19 | Complex-Aim 0x446d…1995 | No | SELL | 201 | 52¢ | $104 | 0x23f357… |
| 07-08 10:50:19 | Heavenly-Legislation 0x62a7…f106 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 48¢ | $5 | 0x23f357… |
| 07-08 10:50:19 | Internal-Hail 0x2884…d0c3 | Yes | SELL | 216 | 48¢ | $104 | 0x23f357… |
| 07-08 10:50:19 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x23f357… |
| 07-08 10:44:20 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 84 | 51¢ | $43 | 0xcff363… |
| 07-08 10:44:20 | Closed-Rating 0x505e…affc | Yes | BUY | 84 | 49¢ | $41 | 0xcff363… |
| 07-08 10:37:25 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 20 | 51¢ | $10 | 0xb3b1d7… |
| 07-08 10:37:25 | Only-Spirituality 0x5297…7b99 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 49¢ | $10 | 0xb3b1d7… |
| 07-08 10:10:11 | Good-Natured-Time 0xe328…9f4a | Yes | BUY | 143 | 49¢ | $70 | 0xf71784… |
| 07-08 10:10:11 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 143 | 51¢ | $73 | 0xf71784… |
| 07-08 10:09:43 | Closed-Rating 0x505e…affc | Yes | BUY | 159 | 49¢ | $78 | 0xbf4d87… |
| 07-08 10:09:43 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 159 | 51¢ | $81 | 0xbf4d87… |
| 07-08 09:32:55 | Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | BUY | 19 | 52¢ | $10 | 0xffd289… |
| 07-08 09:32:55 | (anonymous) 0x11f8…e629 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 48¢ | $2 | 0xffd289… |
| 07-08 09:32:55 | Heavenly-Legislation 0x62a7…f106 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 48¢ | $7 | 0xffd289… |
| 07-08 09:24:31 | (anonymous) 0x683b…c863 | No | SELL | 43 | 51¢ | $22 | 0x1f87fd… |
| 07-08 09:24:31 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 43 | 51¢ | $22 | 0x1f87fd… |
| 07-08 09:15:56 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 5,552 | 51¢ | $2,831 | 0x463b2a… |
| 07-08 09:15:56 | Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | SELL | 5,552 | 51¢ | $2,831 | 0x463b2a… |
| 07-08 09:15:40 | Weary-Duplexer 0x2f64…9138 | Yes | BUY | 408 | 49¢ | $200 | 0x8c0ae8… |
| 07-08 09:15:40 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 408 | 51¢ | $208 | 0x8c0ae8… |
| 07-08 09:14:53 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 1,020 | 51¢ | $520 | 0x991842… |
| 07-08 09:14:53 | Weary-Duplexer 0x2f64…9138 | Yes | BUY | 1,020 | 49¢ | $500 | 0x991842… |
| 07-08 08:57:29 | Embellished-Observatory 0x5371…76eb | No | SELL | 3,197 | 51¢ | $1,630 | 0xf34c03… |
| 07-08 08:57:29 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 3,197 | 51¢ | $1,630 | 0xf34c03… |
| 07-08 08:55:01 | Embellished-Observatory 0x5371…76eb | No | SELL | 4,796 | 51¢ | $2,446 | 0x6cacc1… |
| 07-08 08:55:01 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 4,796 | 51¢ | $2,446 | 0x6cacc1… |
| 07-08 08:42:50 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 245 | 51¢ | $125 | 0xb32cd7… |
| 07-08 08:42:50 | Squiggly-Sub 0x46a3…338f | Yes | BUY | 245 | 49¢ | $120 | 0xb32cd7… |
| 07-08 08:30:56 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 10 | 51¢ | $5 | 0xc9b7c2… |
| 07-08 08:30:56 | (anonymous) 0x11f8…e629 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 49¢ | $5 | 0xc9b7c2… |
| 07-08 08:30:20 | Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | BUY | 2 | 51¢ | $1 | 0xfd54ae… |