Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,365,746
$6,493 in 24h
Trades
9,751
Unique wallets
1,228
Liquidity
$67,336
Latest YES mid
34¢
Latest NO mid
66¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 08-19 00:12
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-37.3¢
(top1%: 7% YES on $336.9K
vs crowd: 44% YES on $1.03M)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 65 | $157.1K | $438.0K | $280.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 130 | $104.8K | $82.5K | +$22.4K |
| 🐟 Fish | 326 | $128.0K | $44.8K | +$83.2K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 707 | $69.3K | $10.5K | +$58.7K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 24 | $23.9K | $313.0K | $289.1K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 61 | $11.5K | $6.7K | +$4.9K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 64 | $12.2K | $4.5K | +$7.8K |
| Median | 110 | $17.1K | $2.5K | +$14.6K |
| Below median | 134 | $12.9K | $5.3K | +$7.6K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 37 | $4.0K | $5.1K | $1.1K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 36 | $5.7K | $5.5K | +$190 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 31 | $121.9K | $60.9K | +$61.0K |
| unranked | 731 | $249.8K | $172.3K | +$77.5K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Well-To-Do-Code 0x1465…7072 | No | +421,278 | $262,394 | $262,394 | 386 | 08-14 00:16 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | Yes | +228,155 | $111,204 | $111,204 | 164 | 08-11 19:14 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | +105,711 | $52,263 | $52,263 | 157 | 08-11 03:08 |
| Hideous-Leg 0x56ad…f13e | No | +101,999 | $71,498 | $83,178 | 128 | 08-17 10:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xafa2…0611 | Yes | +64,050 | $19,890 | $19,890 | 1 | 07-23 16:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x0a76…f8f9 | No | +44,940 | $19,838 | $19,838 | 40 | 07-02 07:30 |
| Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | +34,627 | $24,078 | $33,095 | 80 | 08-18 13:35 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +30,512 | $15,384 | $15,384 | 497 | 08-18 15:21 |
| LlamaLoco0000 0x93fb…3e4a | Yes | +30,162 | $10,826 | $10,826 | 4 | 08-14 00:16 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +29,382 | $14,212 | $14,212 | 513 | 08-19 00:12 |
| Perfumed-Appointment 0x3f3b…1d77 | Yes | +28,949 | $10,065 | $10,065 | 33 | 08-15 03:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x466a…444a | Yes | +26,064 | $9,124 | $9,124 | 3 | 07-26 08:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x7db9…d477 | Yes | +20,732 | $8,001 | $8,001 | 7 | 08-11 05:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x861f…177d | Yes | +18,056 | $7,932 | $7,932 | 32 | 08-05 06:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x2270…6732 | Yes | +17,680 | $7,205 | $7,205 | 11 | 08-18 05:48 |
| Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | +17,639 | $6,178 | $7,251 | 15 | 08-19 00:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x7683…8082 | Yes | +15,426 | $4,916 | $4,916 | 8 | 07-24 11:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x4dae…3ea8 | Yes | +15,334 | $5,709 | $5,709 | 6 | 08-08 23:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xde5e…3a94 | Yes | +15,132 | $6,680 | $6,680 | 8 | 07-23 12:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x0eda…fff0 | Yes | +14,992 | $5,507 | $5,507 | 5 | 08-03 16:37 |
| Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | +14,158 | $9,151 | $23,952 | 71 | 08-18 01:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bbe…b9dc | No | +12,971 | $5,549 | $7,649 | 22 | 06-05 14:03 |
| Hurtful-Cuisine 0xc56b…0e6d | Yes | +10,586 | $3,322 | $3,322 | 27 | 08-02 05:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x919e…4e9b | Yes | +10,000 | $3,500 | $3,500 | 1 | 07-25 11:10 |
| Silver-Accordion 0x66ad…cc4e | No | +10,000 | $3,500 | $3,500 | 9 | 06-26 02:16 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +8,794 | $4,397 | $4,397 | 13 | 06-16 03:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xf011…42c6 | Yes | +8,296 | $4,131 | $4,131 | 23 | 07-10 23:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xacc9…fff2 | Yes | +8,035 | $4,420 | $5,476 | 12 | 06-30 23:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xfdad…6162 | Yes | +7,046 | $2,619 | $2,619 | 6 | 07-15 00:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xf705…3ca7 | Yes | +6,820 | $2,508 | $5,759 | 9 | 08-07 12:15 |
| Whispered-Stencil 0x7f32…3e2c | Yes | +6,500 | $1,885 | $1,885 | 2 | 07-23 04:15 |
| Cold-Angstrom 0x57c0…60c5 | Yes | +6,284 | $3,651 | $3,651 | 2 | 06-10 04:43 |
| Pretty-Contest 0xf23d…b77a | Yes | +6,000 | $1,860 | $1,860 | 1 | 07-15 14:13 |
| Obvious-Geyser-Cutlet 0xe8c4…395d | Yes | +6,000 | $2,219 | $2,219 | 4 | 08-09 17:26 |
| Muted-Plate-Ratepayer 0x910e…1a26 | Yes | +5,987 | $1,916 | $1,916 | 3 | 07-22 14:01 |
| Young-Belligerency-Sunroom 0x786e…074e | Yes | +5,848 | $2,000 | $2,000 | 1 | 08-08 05:51 |
| Weary-Duplexer 0x2f64…9138 | Yes | +5,643 | $2,206 | $2,876 | 9 | 07-31 15:33 |
| Competent-Bridge 0x63fb…70a2 | Yes | +5,639 | $4,040 | $9,343 | 11 | 07-01 10:51 |
| Lasting-Dessert 0x8e77…c4f3 | No | +5,000 | $3,250 | $3,250 | 1 | 07-26 08:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x867c…a0cc | Yes | +4,688 | $1,500 | $1,500 | 2 | 07-15 14:44 |
| Emotional-Secretary 0x69b9…1284 | Yes | +4,500 | $1,639 | $1,639 | 3 | 08-18 15:21 |
| High-Bow 0xb5aa…5bd7 | No | +3,561 | $2,087 | $5,562 | 35 | 07-13 13:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x9e3e…f882 | No | +3,275 | $2,221 | $2,221 | 4 | 08-05 12:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xe450…f0a9 | No | +2,954 | $1,949 | $1,949 | 2 | 08-17 15:32 |
| Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | +2,914 | $1,842 | $3,166 | 439 | 08-18 13:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | No | +2,812 | $1,111 | $1,111 | 8 | 06-08 06:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-19 00:12:24 | Same-Jewellery 0xfa01…9eed | Yes | SELL | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x6a09bc… |
| 08-19 00:12:24 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x6a09bc… |
| 08-19 00:12:22 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 143 | 35¢ | $50 | 0xfc4dbd… |
| 08-19 00:12:22 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 143 | 35¢ | $50 | 0xfc4dbd… |
| 08-18 21:01:34 | Same-Jewellery 0xfa01…9eed | Yes | SELL | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x991576… |
| 08-18 21:01:34 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x991576… |
| 08-18 21:01:34 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 114 | 35¢ | $40 | 0x022f3c… |
| 08-18 21:01:34 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 114 | 35¢ | $40 | 0x022f3c… |
| 08-18 20:59:43 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x081b67… |
| 08-18 20:59:43 | Same-Jewellery 0xfa01…9eed | Yes | SELL | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x081b67… |
| 08-18 20:59:42 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 29 | 35¢ | $10 | 0xaa591d… |
| 08-18 20:59:42 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 35¢ | $10 | 0xaa591d… |
| 08-18 19:19:52 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x8b4e77… |
| 08-18 19:19:52 | Same-Jewellery 0xfa01…9eed | Yes | SELL | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x8b4e77… |
| 08-18 19:19:51 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 35¢ | $10 | 0xce1244… |
| 08-18 19:19:51 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 29 | 35¢ | $10 | 0xce1244… |
| 08-18 18:18:43 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 33¢ | $1 | 0x027722… |
| 08-18 18:18:43 | (anonymous) 0xb2ab…534d | Yes | SELL | 3 | 33¢ | $1 | 0x027722… |
| 08-18 18:12:01 | (anonymous) 0xb2ab…534d | Yes | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x2237c4… |
| 08-18 18:12:01 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x2237c4… |
| 08-18 16:49:07 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 297 | 35¢ | $104 | 0x0c4168… |
| 08-18 16:49:07 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x7bb45e… |
| 08-18 16:49:07 | Same-Jewellery 0xfa01…9eed | Yes | SELL | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x7bb45e… |
| 08-18 16:49:07 | (anonymous) 0xb249…c6fc | Yes | BUY | 297 | 35¢ | $104 | 0x0c4168… |
| 08-18 16:35:00 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x3a662a… |
| 08-18 16:35:00 | Same-Jewellery 0xfa01…9eed | Yes | SELL | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x3a662a… |
| 08-18 16:34:58 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 57 | 35¢ | $20 | 0xb87cb1… |
| 08-18 16:34:58 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 57 | 35¢ | $20 | 0xb87cb1… |
| 08-18 16:23:13 | Same-Jewellery 0xfa01…9eed | Yes | SELL | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x3227d4… |
| 08-18 16:23:13 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x3227d4… |
| 08-18 16:23:12 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 143 | 35¢ | $50 | 0x5261bd… |
| 08-18 16:23:12 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 143 | 35¢ | $50 | 0x5261bd… |
| 08-18 16:18:46 | (anonymous) 0x42b3…c57e | No | SELL | 3 | 65¢ | $2 | 0x7dafdd… |
| 08-18 16:18:46 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x7dafdd… |
| 08-18 16:13:13 | (anonymous) 0xcb17…2955 | No | SELL | 3 | 65¢ | $2 | 0xdd0ceb… |
| 08-18 16:13:13 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0xdd0ceb… |
| 08-18 16:13:12 | Quick-Commandment 0x3b0d…073f | Yes | BUY | 1,300 | 34¢ | $442 | 0x137f54… |
| 08-18 16:13:12 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 27 | 33¢ | $9 | 0x137f54… |
| 08-18 16:13:12 | (anonymous) 0xb1d5…5753 | Yes | SELL | 2,300 | 34¢ | $782 | 0x137f54… |
| 08-18 16:13:12 | Mushy-Asymmetry 0xe738…df65 | No | SELL | 674 | 66¢ | $445 | 0x137f54… |
| 08-18 16:13:12 | Intelligent-Spot 0x3630…5581 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 34¢ | $34 | 0x137f54… |
| 08-18 16:13:12 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0x137f54… |
| 08-18 16:08:12 | Vapid-Vase 0xc838…1263 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 34¢ | $5 | 0xc68695… |
| 08-18 16:08:12 | Intelligent-Spot 0x3630…5581 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 34¢ | $5 | 0xc68695… |
| 08-18 16:03:24 | Same-Jewellery 0xfa01…9eed | Yes | SELL | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0xcca1f8… |
| 08-18 16:03:24 | Intelligent-Spot 0x3630…5581 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0xcca1f8… |
| 08-18 16:03:22 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 286 | 35¢ | $100 | 0xdde561… |
| 08-18 16:03:22 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 286 | 35¢ | $100 | 0xdde561… |
| 08-18 15:21:07 | Same-Jewellery 0xfa01…9eed | Yes | SELL | 1 | 34¢ | $0 | 0xbc90c6… |
| 08-18 15:21:07 | Intelligent-Spot 0x3630…5581 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 34¢ | $0 | 0xbc90c6… |
| 08-18 15:21:06 | Emotional-Secretary 0x69b9…1284 | Yes | BUY | 600 | 35¢ | $210 | 0xf54bd6… |
| 08-18 15:21:06 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 100 | 65¢ | $65 | 0xf54bd6… |
| 08-18 15:21:06 | Frozen-Antler 0xe734…4f0c | Yes | SELL | 426 | 35¢ | $149 | 0xf54bd6… |
| 08-18 15:21:06 | (anonymous) 0x5bc6…420d | Yes | SELL | 74 | 35¢ | $26 | 0xf54bd6… |
| 08-18 13:35:07 | (anonymous) 0x5bc6…420d | Yes | SELL | 26 | 35¢ | $9 | 0x910e8c… |
| 08-18 13:35:07 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 20 | 65¢ | $13 | 0x910e8c… |
| 08-18 13:35:07 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 24 | 65¢ | $15 | 0x910e8c… |
| 08-18 13:35:07 | Intelligent-Spot 0x3630…5581 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 35¢ | $35 | 0x910e8c… |
| 08-18 10:53:28 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 57 | 65¢ | $37 | 0xf77cbe… |
| 08-18 10:53:28 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 57 | 35¢ | $20 | 0xf77cbe… |
| 08-18 09:25:09 | Intelligent-Spot 0x3630…5581 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x6c64ba… |
| 08-18 09:25:09 | (anonymous) 0x2a98…df3b | Yes | SELL | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x6c64ba… |
| 08-18 09:00:13 | Babyish-Copying 0x06e3…de7f | No | SELL | 10 | 65¢ | $6 | 0xb5b824… |
| 08-18 09:00:13 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 10 | 65¢ | $6 | 0xb5b824… |
| 08-18 08:05:15 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 8 | 65¢ | $5 | 0xf6fef8… |
| 08-18 08:05:15 | (anonymous) 0x83d1…3b0a | No | SELL | 8 | 65¢ | $5 | 0xf6fef8… |
| 08-18 05:48:25 | (anonymous) 0x2270…6732 | Yes | BUY | 1,220 | 35¢ | $427 | 0x7e5f7d… |
| 08-18 05:48:25 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 1,220 | 65¢ | $793 | 0x7e5f7d… |
| 08-18 04:22:27 | (anonymous) 0x8f32…71f0 | No | SELL | 12 | 65¢ | $8 | 0x4cea8b… |
| 08-18 04:22:27 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 12 | 65¢ | $8 | 0x4cea8b… |
| 08-18 04:14:03 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 35¢ | $10 | 0xf331f3… |
| 08-18 04:14:03 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 29 | 65¢ | $19 | 0xf331f3… |
| 08-18 04:09:40 | Urban-Kit 0xbbeb…535c | No | SELL | 14 | 65¢ | $9 | 0xac7816… |
| 08-18 04:09:40 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 14 | 65¢ | $9 | 0xac7816… |
| 08-18 03:55:45 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 86 | 35¢ | $30 | 0x4a0810… |
| 08-18 03:55:45 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 86 | 65¢ | $56 | 0x4a0810… |
| 08-18 03:20:15 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x2542e8… |
| 08-18 03:20:15 | (anonymous) 0x42b3…c57e | No | SELL | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x2542e8… |
| 08-18 03:19:19 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 4 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x894a58… |
| 08-18 03:19:19 | (anonymous) 0xcb17…2955 | No | SELL | 4 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x894a58… |
| 08-18 03:19:18 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 1,012 | 65¢ | $658 | 0x9b71fb… |
| 08-18 03:19:18 | Mushy-Asymmetry 0xe738…df65 | No | SELL | 1,012 | 65¢ | $658 | 0x9b71fb… |
| 08-18 03:01:19 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x78845c… |
| 08-18 03:01:19 | (anonymous) 0x42b3…c57e | No | SELL | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x78845c… |
| 08-18 03:00:28 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 1 | 65¢ | $0 | 0x129aed… |
| 08-18 03:00:28 | Mushy-Asymmetry 0xe738…df65 | No | SELL | 1,012 | 65¢ | $658 | 0x129aed… |
| 08-18 03:00:28 | (anonymous) 0xcb17…2955 | No | SELL | 4 | 65¢ | $3 | 0xb5a6d8… |
| 08-18 03:00:28 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 4 | 65¢ | $3 | 0xb5a6d8… |
| 08-18 03:00:28 | Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | BUY | 1,011 | 65¢ | $657 | 0x129aed… |
| 08-18 02:57:43 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x24cb17… |
| 08-18 02:57:43 | Muffled-Halfsister 0x0110…af5d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 35¢ | $2 | 0x24cb17… |
| 08-18 01:58:18 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 10 | 65¢ | $6 | 0x75e286… |
| 08-18 01:58:18 | (anonymous) 0xaa7f…e644 | Yes | BUY | 114 | 35¢ | $40 | 0x75e286… |
| 08-18 01:58:18 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 34 | 65¢ | $22 | 0x75e286… |
| 08-18 01:52:01 | Intelligent-Spot 0x3630…5581 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x2af9dc… |
| 08-18 01:52:01 | Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | BUY | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0x2af9dc… |
| 08-18 01:12:49 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 40 | 65¢ | $26 | 0xdd6265… |
| 08-18 01:12:49 | Lighthearted-Relation 0x852e…ca77 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 35¢ | $14 | 0xdd6265… |
| 08-18 00:28:42 | Lighthearted-Relation 0x852e…ca77 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 35¢ | $18 | 0x5a4788… |
| 08-18 00:28:42 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 50 | 65¢ | $33 | 0x5a4788… |