Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$393,826
$6,493 in 24h
Trades
3,092
Unique wallets
472
Liquidity
$67,336
Latest YES mid
53¢
Latest NO mid
47¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-17 16:12
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-43.3¢
(top1%: 21% YES on $14.4K
vs crowd: 64% YES on $229.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 33 | $65.1K | $32.4K | +$32.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 62 | $21.5K | $24.4K | $2.9K |
| 🐟 Fish | 112 | $31.7K | $16.2K | +$15.5K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 265 | $28.4K | $9.8K | +$18.6K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 9 | $3.0K | $11.4K | $8.5K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 30 | $2.0K | $3.9K | $1.9K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 24 | $2.1K | $2.9K | $840 |
| Median | 35 | $138 | $301 | $163 |
| Below median | 48 | $3.5K | $1.5K | +$2.0K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 18 | $1.5K | $2.2K | $658 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 26 | $2.8K | $4.5K | $1.6K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 20 | $62.9K | $23.4K | +$39.5K |
| unranked | 262 | $68.7K | $32.7K | +$36.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | Yes | +121,219 | $61,765 | $61,765 | 98 | 06-06 04:33 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | +48,166 | $20,130 | $20,130 | 70 | 06-17 06:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bbe…b9dc | No | +12,971 | $5,549 | $7,649 | 22 | 06-05 14:03 |
| Competent-Bridge 0x63fb…70a2 | Yes | +10,019 | $6,692 | $6,692 | 4 | 06-05 16:16 |
| Understated-Resist 0x2cf9…da60 | No | +9,648 | $5,431 | $5,431 | 5 | 06-03 04:36 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +9,003 | $3,909 | $3,909 | 143 | 06-16 18:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xacc9…fff2 | Yes | +8,835 | $4,948 | $4,948 | 8 | 06-05 03:56 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +8,794 | $4,397 | $4,397 | 13 | 06-16 03:31 |
| Ill-Wing 0xe5c1…bdb9 | Yes | +8,418 | $3,370 | $13,193 | 37 | 06-17 15:04 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +7,137 | $3,924 | $3,924 | 101 | 06-15 18:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x861f…177d | Yes | +6,401 | $3,949 | $3,949 | 14 | 06-16 07:07 |
| Cold-Angstrom 0x57c0…60c5 | Yes | +6,284 | $3,651 | $3,651 | 2 | 06-10 04:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xf011…42c6 | Yes | +5,090 | $2,608 | $2,608 | 3 | 06-15 15:53 |
| Mushy-Asymmetry 0xe738…df65 | No | +4,744 | $2,013 | $2,013 | 24 | 06-09 14:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x8599…bace | No | +4,447 | $1,833 | $1,833 | 8 | 06-10 08:27 |
| Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | No | +3,921 | $980 | $980 | 1 | 06-15 08:40 |
| Fresh-Interval 0xdc6d…10fa | No | +3,425 | $1,483 | $1,483 | 4 | 06-10 08:50 |
| Advanced-Shipper 0xa8b3…4484 | No | +3,354 | $1,508 | $5,682 | 82 | 06-09 08:22 |
| Chubby-Forehead 0x2ce0…8d6f | No | +3,230 | $1,354 | $1,354 | 3 | 06-04 02:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x98f6…4e6e | Yes | +3,201 | $1,710 | $1,710 | 3 | 06-16 18:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x0ced…5452 | Yes | +2,885 | $1,727 | $3,740 | 8 | 06-13 02:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | No | +2,812 | $1,111 | $1,111 | 8 | 06-08 06:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xfdad…6162 | Yes | +2,546 | $1,044 | $1,044 | 5 | 06-01 16:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | +2,251 | $1,225 | $1,225 | 5 | 06-05 14:45 |
| High-Bow 0xb5aa…5bd7 | No | +2,212 | $1,129 | $1,129 | 3 | 06-03 10:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xdd3f…e1ee | Yes | +2,173 | $951 | $951 | 1 | 06-02 05:00 |
| Puzzled-Internet 0xc2e9…e288 | No | +1,907 | $1,114 | $1,114 | 4 | 06-03 00:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x2796…b4f0 | No | +1,750 | $760 | $2,590 | 10 | 06-15 15:53 |
| Powerful-Headrest 0xe987…3477 | Yes | +1,700 | $571 | $2,643 | 8 | 06-15 15:53 |
| Focused-Kilogram 0x9d3b…22ab | Yes | +1,634 | $866 | $866 | 6 | 06-14 19:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa03…8916 | Yes | +1,458 | $900 | $900 | 1 | 06-05 13:59 |
| Admired-Hometown 0x1c06…047c | Yes | +1,352 | $774 | $774 | 1 | 06-08 17:43 |
| Closed-Rating 0x505e…affc | Yes | +1,321 | $730 | $730 | 28 | 06-16 11:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xae4e…3ffa | Yes | +1,200 | $656 | $656 | 3 | 06-04 14:11 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | +1,118 | $330 | $330 | 3 | 06-15 08:40 |
| Shy-Litigation 0x6408…c7ae | Yes | +1,000 | $557 | $557 | 5 | 06-12 15:13 |
| Square-Financing 0x0670…2bf0 | Yes | +1,000 | $530 | $530 | 2 | 06-17 11:59 |
| Wrathful-Scarification 0x730a…51a0 | No | +1,000 | $260 | $260 | 1 | 06-15 08:40 |
| Wrathful-Scarification 0x730a…51a0 | Yes | +1,000 | $540 | $540 | 1 | 06-15 08:47 |
| Good-Natured-Time 0xe328…9f4a | Yes | +972 | $516 | $516 | 12 | 06-16 14:25 |
| Faithful-Liquor 0xb696…9e1f | Yes | +939 | $396 | $396 | 9 | 05-30 07:16 |
| Shadowy-Sanction 0x0340…6907 | Yes | +930 | $81 | $1,911 | 17 | 06-09 16:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xb87f…48b2 | No | +894 | $438 | $438 | 6 | 06-03 19:51 |
| Ordinary-Confectionery 0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | +888 | $370 | $920 | 19 | 06-02 02:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x61b5…de77 | No | +875 | $534 | $534 | 4 | 05-27 23:41 |
| Anchored-Businessman 0xb635…f0fd | Yes | +835 | $423 | $423 | 3 | 06-13 21:42 |
| Sweltering-Donation 0xc15c…b80e | Yes | +810 | $393 | $821 | 13 | 06-17 16:12 |
| Definite-Catastrophe 0x34b1…bc54 | Yes | +805 | $426 | $426 | 2 | 06-04 09:49 |
| Substantial-Hospitalisation 0xe757…d069 | No | +800 | $417 | $417 | 2 | 06-12 02:57 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 16:12:22 | Sweltering-Donation 0xc15c…b80e | Yes | BUY | 2 | 54¢ | $1 | 0xd37ed4… |
| 06-17 16:12:22 | Scornful-Shed 0x35f2…71a3 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 54¢ | $1 | 0xd37ed4… |
| 06-17 15:04:14 | Ill-Wing 0xe5c1…bdb9 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 53¢ | $18 | 0x677dff… |
| 06-17 15:04:14 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 10 | 47¢ | $5 | 0x677dff… |
| 06-17 15:04:14 | Scornful-Shed 0x35f2…71a3 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 53¢ | $24 | 0x677dff… |
| 06-17 14:59:38 | Instructive-Patience 0x63b4…ee12 | No | SELL | 6 | 46¢ | $3 | 0xf1f4d3… |
| 06-17 14:59:38 | Scornful-Shed 0x35f2…71a3 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 54¢ | $3 | 0xf1f4d3… |
| 06-17 13:25:05 | Ill-Wing 0xe5c1…bdb9 | Yes | BUY | 32 | 53¢ | $17 | 0x398bc9… |
| 06-17 13:25:05 | Tempting-Parable 0x1f39…921f | No | BUY | 32 | 47¢ | $15 | 0x398bc9… |
| 06-17 11:59:56 | Scornful-Shed 0x35f2…71a3 | Yes | SELL | 2,784 | 53¢ | $1,475 | 0x7be642… |
| 06-17 11:59:56 | Square-Financing 0x0670…2bf0 | Yes | BUY | 973 | 53¢ | $516 | 0x7be642… |
| 06-17 11:59:56 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 53¢ | $13 | 0x7be642… |
| 06-17 11:59:56 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | BUY | 94 | 53¢ | $50 | 0x7be642… |
| 06-17 11:59:56 | Ill-Wing 0xe5c1…bdb9 | Yes | BUY | 1,687 | 53¢ | $894 | 0x7be642… |
| 06-17 11:59:56 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 53¢ | $3 | 0x7be642… |
| 06-17 09:49:08 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | No | SELL | 5 | 46¢ | $2 | 0x11ec4c… |
| 06-17 09:49:08 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 54¢ | $5 | 0x11ec4c… |
| 06-17 09:49:08 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | BUY | 93 | 54¢ | $50 | 0x11ec4c… |
| 06-17 09:49:08 | Scornful-Shed 0x35f2…71a3 | Yes | SELL | 115 | 54¢ | $62 | 0x11ec4c… |
| 06-17 09:49:08 | (anonymous) 0xf57d…bf12 | No | SELL | 7 | 46¢ | $3 | 0x11ec4c… |
| 06-17 08:25:02 | (anonymous) 0xebc8…50c7 | Yes | SELL | 27 | 53¢ | $14 | 0xf58fae… |
| 06-17 08:25:02 | Square-Financing 0x0670…2bf0 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 53¢ | $14 | 0xf58fae… |
| 06-17 06:00:29 | Hearty-Antique 0x803d…fc31 | No | SELL | 12 | 46¢ | $6 | 0x018bfe… |
| 06-17 06:00:29 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 12 | 46¢ | $6 | 0x018bfe… |
| 06-17 06:00:29 | (anonymous) 0x58c8…e4ed | No | BUY | 3 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x8aab8b… |
| 06-17 06:00:29 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | BUY | 3 | 52¢ | $2 | 0x8aab8b… |
| 06-17 05:58:05 | (anonymous) 0x58c8…e4ed | No | BUY | 3 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x43b3dd… |
| 06-17 05:58:05 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | BUY | 3 | 52¢ | $2 | 0x43b3dd… |
| 06-17 05:58:04 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 98 | 46¢ | $45 | 0xdc544f… |
| 06-17 05:58:04 | Bleak-Jazz 0x2afa…a29e | No | SELL | 118 | 46¢ | $54 | 0xdc544f… |
| 06-17 05:58:04 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 54¢ | $11 | 0xdc544f… |
| 06-17 02:11:30 | Celebrated-Freckle 0x83f6…62f8 | No | SELL | 274 | 46¢ | $126 | 0x4586af… |
| 06-17 02:11:30 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | BUY | 12 | 46¢ | $6 | 0x4586af… |
| 06-17 02:11:30 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | SELL | 89 | 54¢ | $48 | 0x4586af… |
| 06-17 02:11:30 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 173 | 46¢ | $80 | 0x4586af… |
| 06-17 02:09:45 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | SELL | 6 | 54¢ | $3 | 0xccf7a9… |
| 06-17 02:09:45 | Sweltering-Donation 0xc15c…b80e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 54¢ | $3 | 0xccf7a9… |
| 06-17 02:06:39 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 20 | 48¢ | $10 | 0xc47a19… |
| 06-17 02:06:39 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | BUY | 3 | 52¢ | $2 | 0xc47a19… |
| 06-17 02:06:39 | (anonymous) 0xac00…b58d | No | BUY | 23 | 48¢ | $11 | 0xc47a19… |
| 06-16 21:09:25 | Straight-Component 0xa927…8d9f | No | SELL | 1,004 | 47¢ | $472 | 0xf39054… |
| 06-16 21:09:25 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 1,108 | 47¢ | $521 | 0xf39054… |
| 06-16 21:09:25 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 10 | 47¢ | $5 | 0xf39054… |
| 06-16 21:09:25 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | BUY | 94 | 53¢ | $50 | 0xf39054… |
| 06-16 18:41:13 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 100 | 46¢ | $46 | 0xd770e4… |
| 06-16 18:41:13 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 54¢ | $5 | 0xd770e4… |
| 06-16 18:41:13 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | SELL | 94 | 54¢ | $51 | 0xd770e4… |
| 06-16 18:41:13 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | BUY | 12 | 46¢ | $6 | 0xd770e4… |
| 06-16 18:41:13 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 210 | 46¢ | $96 | 0xd770e4… |
| 06-16 18:41:13 | (anonymous) 0x98f6…4e6e | Yes | BUY | 426 | 54¢ | $230 | 0xd770e4… |
| 06-16 17:57:34 | (anonymous) 0x335d…efec | Yes | SELL | 200 | 53¢ | $106 | 0x0e708e… |
| 06-16 17:57:34 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | BUY | 12 | 47¢ | $6 | 0x0e708e… |
| 06-16 17:57:34 | (anonymous) 0x98f6…4e6e | Yes | BUY | 1,849 | 53¢ | $980 | 0x0e708e… |
| 06-16 17:57:34 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 53¢ | $13 | 0x0e708e… |
| 06-16 17:57:34 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 100 | 47¢ | $47 | 0x0e708e… |
| 06-16 17:57:34 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | SELL | 41 | 53¢ | $22 | 0x0e708e… |
| 06-16 17:57:34 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 1,471 | 47¢ | $691 | 0x0e708e… |
| 06-16 17:07:07 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | SELL | 55 | 53¢ | $29 | 0xb738e3… |
| 06-16 17:07:07 | Dramatic-Danger 0x32f4…c885 | No | SELL | 107 | 47¢ | $51 | 0xb738e3… |
| 06-16 17:07:07 | (anonymous) 0x3365…972a | No | BUY | 52 | 48¢ | $25 | 0xb738e3… |
| 06-16 14:25:49 | (anonymous) 0xf57d…bf12 | No | BUY | 5 | 48¢ | $2 | 0x0636fb… |
| 06-16 14:25:49 | Good-Natured-Time 0xe328…9f4a | Yes | BUY | 121 | 52¢ | $63 | 0x0636fb… |
| 06-16 14:25:49 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 99 | 48¢ | $48 | 0x0636fb… |
| 06-16 14:25:49 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | BUY | 12 | 48¢ | $6 | 0x0636fb… |
| 06-16 14:25:49 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x0636fb… |
| 06-16 11:11:42 | Closed-Rating 0x505e…affc | Yes | BUY | 79 | 52¢ | $41 | 0x86adbd… |
| 06-16 11:11:42 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 1 | 48¢ | $0 | 0x86adbd… |
| 06-16 11:11:42 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | SELL | 78 | 52¢ | $40 | 0x86adbd… |
| 06-16 09:00:15 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x927166… |
| 06-16 09:00:15 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 41 | 51¢ | $21 | 0x927166… |
| 06-16 09:00:15 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | SELL | 46 | 49¢ | $23 | 0x927166… |
| 06-16 08:56:57 | Closed-Rating 0x505e…affc | Yes | BUY | 29 | 52¢ | $15 | 0x39a231… |
| 06-16 08:56:57 | (anonymous) 0xf57d…bf12 | No | BUY | 9 | 49¢ | $4 | 0x39a231… |
| 06-16 08:56:57 | Welcome-Roommate 0x102a…c34d | Yes | SELL | 20 | 52¢ | $10 | 0x39a231… |
| 06-16 08:16:22 | Straight-Component 0xa927…8d9f | No | SELL | 1,684 | 49¢ | $826 | 0x37f4bc… |
| 06-16 08:16:22 | (anonymous) 0x8bf1…b75e | Yes | SELL | 1,526 | 51¢ | $778 | 0x37f4bc… |
| 06-16 08:16:22 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | BUY | 12 | 49¢ | $6 | 0x37f4bc… |
| 06-16 08:16:22 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 100 | 49¢ | $49 | 0x37f4bc… |
| 06-16 08:16:22 | (anonymous) 0xf57d…bf12 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 50¢ | $4 | 0x37f4bc… |
| 06-16 07:07:45 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 62 | 50¢ | $31 | 0x356681… |
| 06-16 07:07:45 | (anonymous) 0x861f…177d | Yes | BUY | 63 | 50¢ | $32 | 0x356681… |
| 06-16 07:07:45 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 1 | 50¢ | $1 | 0x356681… |
| 06-16 06:29:09 | (anonymous) 0x8de1…3f69 | No | BUY | 100 | 51¢ | $51 | 0xe96984… |
| 06-16 06:29:09 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 100 | 51¢ | $51 | 0xe96984… |
| 06-16 04:37:46 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 50¢ | $12 | 0xe2b978… |
| 06-16 04:37:46 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 24 | 50¢ | $12 | 0xe2b978… |
| 06-16 04:03:36 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x6032d1… |
| 06-16 04:03:36 | Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | SELL | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x6032d1… |
| 06-16 03:31:54 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 10 | 51¢ | $5 | 0x44c444… |
| 06-16 03:31:54 | (anonymous) 0x5675…380e | No | BUY | 10 | 51¢ | $5 | 0x44c444… |
| 06-16 03:31:01 | Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | BUY | 15 | 50¢ | $8 | 0xaa29e2… |
| 06-16 03:31:01 | Brief-Grandchild-Slate 0xa46c…3939 | No | SELL | 15 | 50¢ | $8 | 0xaa29e2… |
| 06-16 03:16:37 | (anonymous) 0x683b…c863 | No | BUY | 18 | 51¢ | $9 | 0xd84e22… |
| 06-16 03:16:37 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 18 | 51¢ | $9 | 0xd84e22… |
| 06-16 01:37:30 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 10 | 51¢ | $5 | 0x92085e… |
| 06-16 01:37:30 | Blaring-Image 0x600d…96c1 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 49¢ | $5 | 0x92085e… |
| 06-16 00:39:10 | Plush-Coverall 0x9fd2…d24e | No | SELL | 9 | 50¢ | $4 | 0x6fbbfe… |
| 06-16 00:39:10 | Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | BUY | 9 | 50¢ | $4 | 0x6fbbfe… |
| 06-16 00:26:43 | Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x0efc33… |
| 06-16 00:26:43 | (anonymous) 0x3371…8193 | No | SELL | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x0efc33… |