Realized P&L
-$29.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$25.2K
Hit rate
89.7%
Resolved
241
Trades
2,718
lifetime
Volume
$1.06M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$389
Open exposure
$174.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-13
last 10-26 10:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 50 days
Categories
Crypto
80%
96%
+$10,011
Politics
16%
52%
-$40,722
Other
4%
100%
+$1,729
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
41 active days in 12wk
• peak 11 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +41,409 | $31,275 | 97¢ | $40.3K | +$8,995 | 10-17 09:25 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +29,971 | $20,534 | 92¢ | $27.7K | +$7,190 | 10-18 20:36 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | -20,000 | -$17,000 | 96¢ | $-19250 | -$2,250 | 05-12 16:54 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +14,817 | $8,922 | 96¢ | $14.2K | +$5,310 | 10-18 03:45 | |
| Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | No | +13,536 | $13,001 | 99¢ | $13.4K | +$379 | 08-24 04:21 | |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | +11,125 | $10,460 | 97¢ | $10.8K | +$315 | 08-21 13:06 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -10,000 | -$9,947 | 99¢ | $-9935 | +$12 | 09-30 03:54 | |
| Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? | No | +8,738 | $5,405 | 96¢ | $8.4K | +$3,018 | 06-06 20:09 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +6,030 | $4,894 | 98¢ | $5.9K | +$1,043 | 06-15 06:50 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +5,655 | $4,826 | 98¢ | $5.6K | +$732 | 06-05 19:10 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,000 | $2,565 | 92¢ | $2.7K | +$180 | 10-18 08:59 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +2,704 | $2,580 | 97¢ | $2.6K | +$44 | 10-26 10:25 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,000 | $2,490 | 86¢ | $2.6K | +$105 | 10-19 16:05 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,153 | $2,109 | 97¢ | $2.1K | -$28 | 08-19 16:57 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -1,998 | -$1,972 | 100¢ | $-1989 | -$17 | 09-29 18:51 | |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | -1,090 | -$959 | 97¢ | $-1056 | -$96 | 05-01 01:28 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October? | No | +1,000 | $649 | 100¢ | $998 | +$348 | 10-19 04:31 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | -1,000 | -$850 | 92¢ | $-925 | -$75 | 05-02 08:13 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +2,669 | $1,111 | 32¢ | $868 | -$243 | 06-05 02:30 | |
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | +875 | $822 | 98¢ | $860 | +$38 | 08-19 15:05 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +550 | $491 | 97¢ | $536 | +$45 | 06-03 21:20 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? | No | +500 | $450 | 100¢ | $499 | +$49 | 10-02 04:00 | |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | No | +367 | $353 | 98¢ | $360 | +$7 | 08-05 18:58 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? | No | +200 | $190 | 100¢ | $200 | +$10 | 10-02 04:04 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? | No | +100 | $98 | 100¢ | $100 | +$1 | 10-09 15:49 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? | No | +100 | $97 | 99¢ | $99 | +$2 | 07-01 07:28 | |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | +100 | $95 | 96¢ | $96 | +$1 | 10-21 14:30 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -55 | -$53 | 98¢ | $-54 | -$1 | 06-29 00:55 | |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | -11,857 | -$107 | 0¢ | $-18 | +$89 | 07-03 20:29 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October? | No | +0 | -$42 | 100¢ | $0 | +$42 | 10-07 13:15 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bitcoin above 68k on february 18 | 5 | $50.0K | 50,000 | 0 | +50,000 | No | +$50 | 02-18 17:00 |
| bitcoin above 70k on march 13 | 1 | $50.0K | 50,000 | 0 | +50,000 | Yes | +$50 | 03-13 15:57 |
| bitcoin above 68k on february 20 | 51 | $43.4K | 43,417 | 0 | +43,417 | No | +$43 | 02-20 19:25 |
| bitcoin above 66k on february 23 | 6 | $40.0K | 40,000 | 0 | +40,000 | No | +$40 | 02-23 17:29 |
| bitcoin above 68k on february 19 | 18 | $40.0K | 40,000 | 0 | +40,000 | No | +$40 | 02-19 17:20 |
| bitcoin above 66k on february 28 | 5 | $40.0K | 39,994 | 0 | +39,994 | No | +$40 | 02-28 18:13 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | 66 | $35.9K | 44,409 | 3,000 | +41,409 | open | — | 10-17 09:25 |
| bitcoin above 72k on march 10 | 11 | $30.0K | 30,000 | 0 | +30,000 | No | +$30 | 03-10 16:25 |
| bitcoin above 72k on march 18 | 1 | $30.0K | 30,000 | 0 | +30,000 | No | +$30 | 03-18 17:38 |
| bitcoin above 70k on march 10 | 47 | $30.0K | 30,000 | 0 | +30,000 | Yes | +$30 | 03-10 19:10 |
| bitcoin above 68k on february 22 | 14 | $25.6K | 25,617 | 0 | +25,617 | No | +$26 | 02-22 21:07 |
| bitcoin above 70k on march 11 | 104 | $23.0K | 23,067 | 0 | +23,067 | Yes | +$23 | 03-11 18:53 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 33 | $22.6K | 32,471 | 2,500 | +29,971 | open | — | 10-18 20:36 |
| bitcoin above 72k on march 11 | 12 | $20.0K | 20,000 | 0 | +20,000 | No | +$20 | 03-11 17:29 |
| bitcoin above 74k on march 16 | 1 | $20.0K | 20,000 | 0 | +20,000 | No | +$20 | 03-16 16:41 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 50 | $18.8K | 10,000 | 10,000 | +0 | Yes | -$30 | 02-21 06:23 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 34 | $18.3K | 10,000 | 9,000 | +1,000 | No | +$7 | 02-21 04:30 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 1 | $17.0K | 0 | 20,000 | -20,000 | open | — | 05-12 16:54 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 6 | $15.2K | 20,000 | 0 | +20,000 | Yes | -$15,220 | 02-28 05:43 |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | 37 | $15.1K | 17,600 | 2,890 | +14,710 | Yes | +$4,137 | 02-27 16:55 |
| bitcoin above 68k on march 11 | 16 | $15.1K | 15,072 | 0 | +15,072 | Yes | +$15 | 03-11 18:51 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? | 18 | $14.3K | 15,000 | 0 | +15,000 | No | +$725 | 05-18 06:13 |
| bitcoin up or down on february 24 | 9 | $13.8K | 13,817 | 0 | +13,817 | Down | +$14 | 02-24 20:19 |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | 313 | $13.1K | 26,598 | 3,000 | +23,598 | Yes | -$4,456 | 02-28 03:21 |
| Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | 32 | $13.0K | 13,536 | 0 | +13,536 | open | — | 08-24 04:21 |
| bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026 | 16 | $12.9K | 10,100 | 2,802 | +7,298 | No | +$38 | 03-24 14:39 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 10 | $12.4K | 15,100 | 100 | +15,000 | Yes | -$12,288 | 02-26 15:46 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? | 53 | $10.9K | 14,671 | 0 | +14,671 | Yes | +$3,760 | 02-27 12:44 |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | 22 | $10.5K | 11,125 | 0 | +11,125 | open | — | 08-21 13:06 |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | 5 | $10.0K | 10,000 | 0 | +10,000 | Yes | +$10 | 05-13 12:07 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||