Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$165,674
$2,379 in 24h
Trades
1,103
Unique wallets
275
Liquidity
$37,660
Latest YES mid
32¢
Latest NO mid
68¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-12 04:22
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-24.1¢
(top1%: 3% YES on $10.6K
vs crowd: 27% YES on $100.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 21 | $11.1K | $8.6K | +$2.5K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 46 | $8.5K | $42.1K | $33.6K |
| 🐟 Fish | 70 | $1.9K | $18.2K | $16.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 138 | $6.0K | $3.8K | +$2.1K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 9 | $355 | $10.2K | $9.9K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 19 | $3.3K | $2.3K | +$994 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 23 | $30 | $4.9K | $4.9K |
| Median | 37 | $316 | $3.7K | $3.4K |
| Below median | 39 | $491 | $1.5K | $1.0K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 9 | $140 | $543 | $403 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 14 | $890 | $778 | +$113 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 10 | $8.1K | $10.5K | $2.3K |
| unranked | 115 | $13.8K | $38.3K | $24.4K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | Yes | +24,189 | $8,006 | $8,006 | 20 | 06-06 05:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bbe…b9dc | No | +18,209 | $11,967 | $16,587 | 24 | 06-06 04:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x861f…177d | Yes | +14,858 | $4,852 | $4,852 | 5 | 06-10 07:19 |
| Understated-Saxophone 0x86ab…e5be | No | +10,364 | $7,343 | $7,343 | 8 | 06-07 14:34 |
| Idolized-Money 0x4e61…82ee | Yes | +8,449 | $2,958 | $2,958 | 3 | 06-10 23:07 |
| Helpful-Canopy 0x7c15…c9db | Yes | +7,500 | $2,475 | $2,475 | 5 | 06-07 10:44 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | +7,023 | $4,611 | $4,611 | 7 | 06-11 08:47 |
| Forthright-Kingfish 0x6db9…4ab5 | No | +5,630 | $3,828 | $3,828 | 1 | 06-03 19:23 |
| Small-Blowhole 0xb24c…eefe | No | +5,000 | $3,650 | $3,650 | 4 | 06-02 21:36 |
| Dazzling-Woodshed 0x3c12…7514 | Yes | +4,010 | $1,163 | $1,163 | 1 | 06-02 19:54 |
| Runny-Silly 0x7bc7…3976 | No | +3,704 | $2,333 | $2,333 | 4 | 06-06 18:50 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +3,367 | $2,343 | $2,343 | 58 | 06-10 23:07 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +3,328 | $997 | $997 | 73 | 06-11 23:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x715c…531b | Yes | +3,179 | $1,081 | $1,081 | 4 | 06-10 08:10 |
| Speedy-Film 0x32f6…9538 | Yes | +2,875 | $685 | $685 | 7 | 06-02 06:47 |
| Advanced-Shipper 0xa8b3…4484 | No | +2,809 | $1,434 | $11,030 | 43 | 06-10 18:46 |
| Private-Patrolling 0x7789…a280 | No | +2,240 | $1,438 | $1,438 | 6 | 06-10 23:07 |
| Dependent-Diet 0xd9ae…4081 | No | +2,206 | $1,500 | $1,500 | 4 | 06-12 03:38 |
| Disloyal-Fork 0x6053…8908 | Yes | +2,083 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 05-31 20:55 |
| Alienated-Pearl-Telephone 0x0c20…f82d | Yes | +2,008 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 05-31 22:13 |
| Villainous-Inlay 0x8b98…537e | Yes | +1,775 | $621 | $621 | 2 | 06-10 19:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x12df…6a3d | Yes | +1,600 | $512 | $512 | 4 | 06-11 19:39 |
| Untimely-Kiwi 0x9157…626b | No | +1,500 | $1,020 | $1,020 | 1 | 06-03 15:01 |
| Grumpy-Urn 0x0845…6b6f | No | +1,400 | $932 | $932 | 3 | 06-05 19:13 |
| Clear-Cut-Corporatism 0x9fbd…572c | No | +1,216 | $900 | $900 | 2 | 06-02 07:08 |
| Glittering-Pitcher 0xa0c3…5b9a | No | +1,200 | $844 | $844 | 2 | 06-04 02:04 |
| Circular-Sandpaper-Larder 0x058f…4883 | No | +1,100 | $766 | $766 | 8 | 06-07 19:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | No | +1,000 | $690 | $690 | 1 | 06-03 14:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x5eab…ef27 | Yes | +833 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 05-29 08:26 |
| Soft-Fork 0xfdba…36c4 | No | +800 | $584 | $584 | 3 | 06-10 07:19 |
| Glamorous-Regulator 0xaee7…05e9 | No | +798 | $540 | $867 | 10 | 06-09 01:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xed79…5479 | No | +787 | $606 | $606 | 1 | 05-30 17:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x1475…5fb7 | Yes | +641 | $209 | $209 | 2 | 06-10 21:27 |
| Puny-Husband 0x7e47…ecf7 | No | +600 | $431 | $431 | 8 | 06-05 20:08 |
| Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | +538 | $132 | $132 | 3 | 06-05 14:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x2796…b4f0 | No | +500 | $283 | $1,481 | 6 | 06-08 11:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | +500 | $145 | $145 | 1 | 06-08 11:38 |
| Wrathful-Scarification 0x730a…51a0 | Yes | +500 | $140 | $140 | 4 | 06-04 17:37 |
| Wide-Bikini 0xaa96…9592 | No | +496 | $327 | $625 | 7 | 06-10 07:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xb5ca…0a70 | Yes | +442 | $106 | $106 | 1 | 05-31 16:54 |
| Sick-Kilometer 0xaf98…d365 | No | +427 | $300 | $300 | 2 | 06-05 20:57 |
| Grim-Nickname 0xe956…c4e0 | No | +400 | $289 | $289 | 3 | 06-03 06:05 |
| Silent-Deck 0xbfbb…dc2b | No | +386 | $263 | $263 | 1 | 06-04 01:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xe0ef…4703 | No | +375 | $250 | $250 | 1 | 06-06 05:15 |
| Sweaty-Religion 0xd7e7…b65e | Yes | +368 | $90 | $90 | 6 | 06-01 17:28 |
| Disguised-Baggy 0xed11…10be | No | +368 | $265 | $265 | 1 | 06-08 17:05 |
| Passionate-Left 0xaa75…a864 | No | +350 | $224 | $224 | 1 | 06-06 18:50 |
| Motionless-Commonsense 0x122c…821f | Yes | +333 | $103 | $103 | 5 | 06-11 22:05 |
| Worthy-Teen 0x516d…03e5 | No | +322 | $216 | $216 | 2 | 06-10 13:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | +311 | $200 | $200 | 4 | 06-10 08:05 |
| Poised-Sparerib 0xaa8a…990d | Yes | +306 | $21 | $271 | 5 | 06-05 20:08 |
| Periodic-Pun 0x8017…1a74 | Yes | +259 | $75 | $75 | 1 | 06-03 00:28 |
| Obvious-Dwelling 0x8188…0667 | Yes | +200 | $61 | $61 | 4 | 06-05 17:10 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 04:22:27 | Cuddly-Sea-Surplus 0xa9cf…e14b | No | BUY | 7 | 69¢ | $5 | 0xbd1d19… |
| 06-12 04:22:27 | (anonymous) 0xfe2c…0fca | No | SELL | 7 | 69¢ | $5 | 0xbd1d19… |
| 06-12 03:38:16 | Dependent-Diet 0xd9ae…4081 | No | BUY | 3 | 68¢ | $2 | 0xff609d… |
| 06-12 03:38:16 | (anonymous) 0x13ef…5691 | No | SELL | 3 | 68¢ | $2 | 0xff609d… |
| 06-11 23:43:51 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | SELL | 12 | 69¢ | $8 | 0x8b44b7… |
| 06-11 23:43:51 | (anonymous) 0x847d…f233 | No | SELL | 200 | 69¢ | $138 | 0x8b44b7… |
| 06-11 23:43:51 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 40 | 31¢ | $12 | 0x8b44b7… |
| 06-11 23:43:51 | Petty-Archaeology 0x6f2a…de7d | Yes | SELL | 502 | 31¢ | $156 | 0x8b44b7… |
| 06-11 23:43:51 | (anonymous) 0xfe2c…0fca | No | SELL | 50 | 69¢ | $35 | 0x8b44b7… |
| 06-11 23:43:51 | (anonymous) 0x9864…9fc8 | No | SELL | 200 | 69¢ | $138 | 0x8b44b7… |
| 06-11 22:16:07 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | SELL | 18 | 68¢ | $12 | 0x0ca182… |
| 06-11 22:16:07 | Dependent-Diet 0xd9ae…4081 | No | BUY | 18 | 68¢ | $12 | 0x0ca182… |
| 06-11 22:07:19 | Dangerous-Caterpillar 0xa46d…b640 | No | SELL | 15 | 68¢ | $11 | 0xeb3668… |
| 06-11 22:07:19 | Dependent-Diet 0xd9ae…4081 | No | BUY | 15 | 68¢ | $11 | 0xeb3668… |
| 06-11 22:05:31 | Motionless-Commonsense 0x122c…821f | Yes | BUY | 90 | 31¢ | $28 | 0x687130… |
| 06-11 22:05:31 | Double-Daffodil 0x1bbe…1559 | Yes | SELL | 150 | 31¢ | $46 | 0x687130… |
| 06-11 22:05:31 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 60 | 31¢ | $19 | 0x687130… |
| 06-11 22:00:06 | Dangerous-Caterpillar 0xa46d…b640 | No | BUY | 15 | 69¢ | $11 | 0x0b8439… |
| 06-11 22:00:06 | Motionless-Commonsense 0x122c…821f | Yes | BUY | 15 | 31¢ | $5 | 0x0b8439… |
| 06-11 19:39:30 | Frigid-Guidance 0x9ac1…0e59 | No | SELL | 57 | 68¢ | $39 | 0x3eaa95… |
| 06-11 19:39:30 | Gleaming-Politician 0x72ff…05c8 | No | SELL | 100 | 68¢ | $68 | 0x3eaa95… |
| 06-11 19:39:30 | (anonymous) 0x1526…f851 | No | SELL | 100 | 68¢ | $68 | 0x3eaa95… |
| 06-11 19:39:30 | (anonymous) 0x53b6…ddf8 | No | SELL | 100 | 68¢ | $68 | 0x3eaa95… |
| 06-11 19:39:30 | Dependent-Diet 0xd9ae…4081 | No | BUY | 2,169 | 68¢ | $1,475 | 0x3eaa95… |
| 06-11 19:39:30 | (anonymous) 0x12df…6a3d | Yes | BUY | 100 | 32¢ | $32 | 0x3eaa95… |
| 06-11 19:39:30 | Far-Off-Logistics 0xe57c…b0fb | No | SELL | 100 | 68¢ | $68 | 0x3eaa95… |
| 06-11 19:39:30 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | SELL | 12 | 68¢ | $8 | 0x3eaa95… |
| 06-11 19:39:30 | (anonymous) 0xade4…e91d | No | SELL | 100 | 68¢ | $68 | 0x3eaa95… |
| 06-11 18:37:22 | (anonymous) 0x8ed8…8b49 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 32¢ | $1 | 0x3dee9e… |
| 06-11 18:37:22 | Frigid-Guidance 0x9ac1…0e59 | No | SELL | 3 | 68¢ | $2 | 0x3dee9e… |
| 06-11 16:28:54 | (anonymous) 0x2dd4…3fb3 | Yes | SELL | 57 | 32¢ | $18 | 0xaee305… |
| 06-11 16:28:54 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | SELL | 12 | 67¢ | $8 | 0xaee305… |
| 06-11 16:28:54 | Frigid-Guidance 0x9ac1…0e59 | No | SELL | 40 | 68¢ | $27 | 0xaee305… |
| 06-11 16:28:54 | Fake-Hypothesis 0xf94c…e742 | No | SELL | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0xaee305… |
| 06-11 16:15:34 | (anonymous) 0x88f7…e7ad | No | SELL | 3 | 65¢ | $2 | 0x4fdeab… |
| 06-11 16:15:34 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | BUY | 3 | 65¢ | $2 | 0x4fdeab… |
| 06-11 14:23:36 | (anonymous) 0xec2a…b354 | No | SELL | 42 | 66¢ | $27 | 0x001afd… |
| 06-11 14:23:36 | Fake-Hypothesis 0xf94c…e742 | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x001afd… |
| 06-11 14:23:36 | (anonymous) 0x3365…972a | No | BUY | 17 | 66¢ | $11 | 0x001afd… |
| 06-11 14:23:36 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | BUY | 8 | 65¢ | $5 | 0x001afd… |
| 06-11 11:36:34 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | SELL | 12 | 68¢ | $8 | 0x5b036a… |
| 06-11 11:36:34 | Harsh-Sequel 0x16d7…1c40 | Yes | SELL | 89 | 32¢ | $28 | 0x5b036a… |
| 06-11 11:36:34 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 42 | 32¢ | $14 | 0x5b036a… |
| 06-11 11:36:34 | Fake-Hypothesis 0xf94c…e742 | No | SELL | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0x5b036a… |
| 06-11 11:36:34 | Motionless-Commonsense 0x122c…821f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 31¢ | $6 | 0x5b036a… |
| 06-11 08:47:54 | (anonymous) 0x88f7…e7ad | No | BUY | 3 | 67¢ | $2 | 0x358d75… |
| 06-11 08:47:54 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | SELL | 3 | 67¢ | $2 | 0x358d75… |
| 06-11 08:47:31 | (anonymous) 0x13ef…5691 | No | BUY | 3 | 68¢ | $2 | 0x44595a… |
| 06-11 08:47:31 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 32¢ | $1 | 0x44595a… |
| 06-11 08:47:30 | (anonymous) 0xeba9…cf76 | Yes | BUY | 169 | 35¢ | $59 | 0x392400… |
| 06-11 08:47:30 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 35¢ | $2 | 0x392400… |
| 06-11 08:47:30 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | BUY | 12 | 65¢ | $8 | 0x392400… |
| 06-11 08:47:30 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 143 | 65¢ | $93 | 0x392400… |
| 06-11 08:47:30 | Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | BUY | 4 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x392400… |
| 06-11 08:47:30 | Fake-Hypothesis 0xf94c…e742 | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x392400… |
| 06-11 07:47:33 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x9f2ece… |
| 06-11 07:47:33 | Realistic-Yoke 0x6294…c256 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x9f2ece… |
| 06-11 06:49:21 | Motherly-Clone 0xe8d6…d5db | No | BUY | 12 | 68¢ | $8 | 0x04b2ba… |
| 06-11 06:49:21 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | SELL | 5 | 67¢ | $3 | 0x04b2ba… |
| 06-11 06:49:21 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 7 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x04b2ba… |
| 06-11 05:18:03 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 61 | 33¢ | $20 | 0xc91526… |
| 06-11 05:18:03 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xc91526… |
| 06-11 05:18:03 | Chubby-Forehead 0x2ce0…8d6f | No | BUY | 200 | 67¢ | $134 | 0xc91526… |
| 06-11 05:18:03 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | SELL | 12 | 67¢ | $8 | 0xc91526… |
| 06-11 05:18:03 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | SELL | 3 | 67¢ | $2 | 0xc91526… |
| 06-11 05:18:03 | Fake-Hypothesis 0xf94c…e742 | No | SELL | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0xc91526… |
| 06-11 05:18:03 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | SELL | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0xc91526… |
| 06-11 04:24:46 | Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | BUY | 2 | 65¢ | $1 | 0xdab979… |
| 06-11 04:24:46 | Old-Fashioned-Gig 0x3042…26ee | No | SELL | 2 | 65¢ | $1 | 0xdab979… |
| 06-11 02:58:09 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | SELL | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0xdb5fbf… |
| 06-11 02:58:09 | Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0xdb5fbf… |
| 06-11 01:11:27 | (anonymous) 0x58c8…e4ed | No | BUY | 2 | 65¢ | $1 | 0x0df42f… |
| 06-11 01:11:27 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | SELL | 2 | 65¢ | $1 | 0x0df42f… |
| 06-11 01:11:25 | (anonymous) 0x0782…fa77 | No | SELL | 3 | 64¢ | $2 | 0xce737a… |
| 06-11 01:11:25 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 3 | 64¢ | $2 | 0xce737a… |
| 06-10 23:29:22 | High-Soil 0x2ed9…ca97 | No | SELL | 444 | 63¢ | $280 | 0x81ae94… |
| 06-10 23:29:22 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 444 | 63¢ | $280 | 0x81ae94… |
| 06-10 23:12:30 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | SELL | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0xb0bab1… |
| 06-10 23:12:30 | Fake-Hypothesis 0xf94c…e742 | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0xb0bab1… |
| 06-10 23:07:55 | (anonymous) 0x0782…fa77 | No | BUY | 3 | 67¢ | $2 | 0x7f6341… |
| 06-10 23:07:55 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 33¢ | $1 | 0x7f6341… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | (anonymous) 0xe346…b831 | No | BUY | 100 | 64¢ | $64 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | BUY | 5 | 63¢ | $3 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | (anonymous) 0xfe2c…0fca | No | BUY | 100 | 64¢ | $64 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | (anonymous) 0x0cee…9d08 | No | BUY | 100 | 64¢ | $64 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | Private-Patrolling 0x7789…a280 | No | BUY | 500 | 64¢ | $320 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | (anonymous) 0x9864…9fc8 | No | BUY | 100 | 64¢ | $64 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | (anonymous) 0x847d…f233 | No | BUY | 100 | 64¢ | $64 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | Idolized-Money 0x4e61…82ee | Yes | BUY | 3,737 | 37¢ | $1,370 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | (anonymous) 0xf8b5…6123 | Yes | SELL | 300 | 37¢ | $111 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | Treasured-Total 0xeab5…f570 | No | BUY | 30 | 63¢ | $19 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | (anonymous) 0x188f…26d0 | No | BUY | 12 | 63¢ | $8 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | BUY | 2,067 | 63¢ | $1,302 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 23:07:46 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 95 | 64¢ | $61 | 0xc366ec… |
| 06-10 21:27:00 | (anonymous) 0x1475…5fb7 | Yes | BUY | 194 | 36¢ | $70 | 0x53a529… |
| 06-10 21:27:00 | (anonymous) 0xfe2c…0fca | No | BUY | 94 | 64¢ | $60 | 0x53a529… |
| 06-10 21:27:00 | (anonymous) 0x847d…f233 | No | BUY | 100 | 64¢ | $64 | 0x53a529… |
| 06-10 19:05:57 | (anonymous) 0xd002…59ea | No | BUY | 100 | 65¢ | $65 | 0x385394… |
| 06-10 19:05:57 | (anonymous) 0xa810…bf02 | No | BUY | 100 | 65¢ | $65 | 0x385394… |