Realized P&L
-$14.3K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.70K
Hit rate
48.8%
Resolved
70
Trades
21,149
lifetime
Volume
$4.91M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$232
Open exposure
$47.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 18:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 15 days
Categories
Politics
49% 58% $-1,936
Other
46% 49% $-12,376
Crypto
5% 100% +$22
Tech
0%
Sports
0% 0% $-23
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 567 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +6,694 $4,970 82¢ $5.5K +$553 06-29 02:00
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -5,306 $-4,525 84¢ $-4431 +$95 06-23 02:54
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +4,663 $3,757 90¢ $4.2K +$417 06-30 14:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -3,522 $-3,688 86¢ $-3011 +$677 06-28 00:08
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +2,500 $2,150 90¢ $2.3K +$112 06-11 12:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -2,200 $-2,259 100¢ $-2198 +$61 06-17 17:02
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No +1,950 $1,882 100¢ $1.9K +$66 06-17 09:45
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No -1,845 $-1,844 100¢ $-1843 +$1 06-18 07:51
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +1,781 $1,760 100¢ $1.8K +$17 06-27 15:13
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No +1,500 $1,410 100¢ $1.5K +$89 06-09 17:08
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No +1,420 $1,392 99¢ $1.4K +$13 06-29 15:53
Iran leadership change by June 30? No -1,281 $-1,427 100¢ $-1279 +$148 06-30 13:46
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No -1,268 $-1,319 100¢ $-1266 +$53 06-18 03:33
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 No +1,440 $923 86¢ $1.2K +$315 06-30 04:04
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No +1,219 $1,081 100¢ $1.2K +$138 06-30 13:40
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +1,200 $1,040 86¢ $1.0K $-2 06-30 07:27
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +1,175 $972 84¢ $981 +$8 06-26 18:29
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +979 $944 100¢ $978 +$34 06-21 03:15
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes -5,002 $-1,511 20¢ $-975 +$536 06-17 18:10
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,300 $913 29¢ $940 +$27 06-26 18:00
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Yes +923 $758 95¢ $880 +$122 06-26 06:40
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No -850 $-1,001 100¢ $-849 +$152 06-30 13:47
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +1,096 $767 74¢ $816 +$49 06-23 11:01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +1,099 $801 74¢ $813 +$12 06-11 20:34
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +900 $819 86¢ $774 $-45 06-27 18:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +1,000 $700 75¢ $750 +$50 06-22 00:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +2,051 $-365 32¢ $667 +$1,032 06-30 03:17
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No +656 $619 99¢ $652 +$33 06-27 01:56
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No +637 $629 100¢ $634 +$5 06-28 10:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No -1,094 $-553 57¢ $-624 $-71 06-24 15:35