Realized P&L
-$95.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$7.74K
Hit rate
75.5%
Resolved
3,131
Trades
44,625
lifetime
Volume
$8.24M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$185
Open exposure
$209.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 11:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 278 days
Categories
Other
48%
74%
-$27,439
Politics
47%
74%
-$69,386
Crypto
5%
78%
+$1,092
Sports
0%
75%
+$831
Tech
0%
79%
-$44
Pop-Culture
0%
11%
-$95
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 500 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +39,393 | $37,707 | 96¢ | $37.9K | +$169 | 10-26 01:12 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +29,451 | $23,832 | 86¢ | $25.3K | +$1,495 | 10-25 10:20 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | No | +25,565 | $22,227 | 90¢ | $23.1K | +$909 | 10-27 05:06 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | +22,634 | $19,119 | 86¢ | $19.4K | +$267 | 10-22 03:29 | |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | No | +13,001 | $12,382 | 99¢ | $12.9K | +$535 | 10-25 10:01 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +11,000 | $9,909 | 94¢ | $10.3K | +$376 | 10-25 23:42 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | No | +11,882 | $8,629 | 74¢ | $8.8K | +$164 | 10-25 23:45 | |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | No | +6,815 | $6,144 | 92¢ | $6.2K | +$92 | 10-25 01:27 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | Yes | +4,880 | $4,812 | 100¢ | $4.9K | +$68 | 10-27 11:55 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | +5,022 | $4,393 | 92¢ | $4.6K | +$202 | 10-24 09:30 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | +4,570 | $4,160 | 92¢ | $4.2K | +$67 | 10-23 13:30 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | +4,800 | $3,697 | 86¢ | $4.2K | +$455 | 10-03 05:23 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | +3,877 | $3,565 | 100¢ | $3.9K | +$293 | 10-27 00:56 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | +4,070 | $3,681 | 94¢ | $3.8K | +$165 | 10-25 23:21 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | +3,804 | $2,603 | 99¢ | $3.8K | +$1,154 | 10-27 12:42 | |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | No | +5,000 | $3,463 | 72¢ | $3.6K | +$112 | 10-27 12:50 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,825 | $3,502 | 92¢ | $3.5K | +$36 | 10-09 12:40 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | -7,573 | -$3,603 | 46¢ | $-3446 | +$157 | 09-10 12:07 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | No | +3,345 | $2,988 | 98¢ | $3.3K | +$280 | 10-18 17:25 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | No | -2,779 | -$1,972 | 97¢ | $-2705 | -$733 | 10-24 16:48 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | +2,342 | $1,739 | 96¢ | $2.2K | +$509 | 10-27 03:56 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | +2,400 | $2,182 | 94¢ | $2.2K | +$62 | 10-27 12:24 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | Yes | +2,143 | $1,981 | 96¢ | $2.1K | +$87 | 10-27 11:42 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | +2,296 | $1,805 | 90¢ | $2.1K | +$261 | 10-21 14:36 | |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | No | +2,085 | $1,807 | 96¢ | $2.0K | +$198 | 10-26 02:58 | |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | +2,267 | $1,897 | 88¢ | $2.0K | +$98 | 09-23 13:33 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | +2,000 | $1,860 | 92¢ | $1.9K | -$10 | 10-03 14:04 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,000 | $1,504 | 90¢ | $1.8K | +$286 | 10-21 05:12 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | +2,199 | $1,619 | 74¢ | $1.6K | -$3 | 10-27 12:41 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | +1,778 | $1,368 | 76¢ | $1.4K | -$8 | 10-24 19:03 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 368 | $156.7K | 87,214 | 81,134 | +6,080 | No | +$6,263 | 04-17 23:38 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 152 | $140.0K | 73,059 | 80,220 | -7,161 | No | -$2,395 | 05-10 22:46 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 172 | $124.0K | 80,657 | 55,589 | +25,069 | No | +$7,697 | 03-31 20:44 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 210 | $122.1K | 97,554 | 57,292 | +40,262 | No | -$1,249 | 06-04 00:34 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | 234 | $114.7K | 60,037 | 60,037 | +0 | No | +$1,531 | 08-25 03:20 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 314 | $114.2K | 72,074 | 72,064 | +10 | open | — | 09-07 15:14 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 235 | $91.6K | 51,462 | 51,638 | -177 | No | +$6,524 | 05-07 07:46 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 317 | $88.6K | 90,940 | 87,166 | +3,774 | No | -$1,339 | 06-30 20:38 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 393 | $87.7K | 65,340 | 25,947 | +39,393 | open | — | 10-26 01:12 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 209 | $84.2K | 178,847 | 152,314 | +26,533 | No | +$1,850 | 05-29 04:50 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 69 | $83.0K | 44,025 | 44,025 | +0 | open | — | 10-05 00:46 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 113 | $80.0K | 50,680 | 39,680 | +11,000 | open | — | 10-25 23:42 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 145 | $79.7K | 43,324 | 42,047 | +1,276 | No | +$3,439 | 03-26 21:22 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 276 | $77.7K | 85,138 | 72,291 | +12,847 | No | +$74 | 05-28 02:18 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31 | 167 | $77.0K | 48,135 | 35,829 | +12,306 | No | +$5,276 | 04-01 02:18 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15 | 1,215 | $74.5K | 39,374 | 37,307 | +2,067 | No | +$1,675 | 03-15 15:11 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 365 | $67.5K | 57,902 | 28,451 | +29,451 | open | — | 10-25 10:20 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 100 | $66.7K | 19,200 | 50,200 | -31,000 | No | -$1,290 | 06-17 17:02 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 79 | $65.5K | 44,575 | 39,575 | +5,000 | Yes | -$10,936 | 04-08 22:10 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026 | 143 | $61.0K | 33,862 | 32,859 | +1,003 | No | +$2,151 | 04-22 23:53 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 308 | $60.8K | 51,616 | 38,490 | +13,126 | No | +$134 | 07-28 03:37 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | 173 | $60.5K | 36,807 | 25,488 | +11,319 | No | +$563 | 07-29 21:07 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15 | 71 | $60.2K | 35,234 | 26,625 | +8,609 | No | +$926 | 04-15 00:53 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | 153 | $57.9K | 32,010 | 30,810 | +1,200 | No | +$439 | 09-27 06:23 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | 148 | $57.7K | 29,602 | 29,602 | +0 | No | +$570 | 09-28 02:30 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | 197 | $53.3K | 33,405 | 26,164 | +7,242 | No | +$1,597 | 06-30 13:46 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | 107 | $52.8K | 30,980 | 24,780 | +6,200 | No | +$1,277 | 05-30 13:13 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15 | 68 | $52.6K | 30,160 | 25,160 | +5,000 | No | +$286 | 06-19 14:07 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 341 | $52.5K | 50,361 | 48,310 | +2,051 | Yes | -$10,441 | 06-17 10:03 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 75 | $51.3K | 25,499 | 27,487 | -1,987 | No | +$351 | 05-12 06:31 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||