Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$7,695
$50,532 in 24h
Trades
94
Unique wallets
46
Liquidity
$164,343
Latest YES mid
46¢
Latest NO mid
54¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-13
last 05-14 17:13
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-40.3¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $361
vs crowd: 40% YES on $4.3K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | $169 | $1.4K | $1.2K |
| 🐟 Fish | 1 | — | $361 | $361 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 43 | $1.5K | $763 | +$783 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $361 | $361 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $350 | $716 | $366 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $45 | — | +$45 |
| Median | 10 | $49 | $1 | +$48 |
| Below median | 6 | $46 | — | +$46 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $23 | — | +$23 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $86 | $622 | $536 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | $169 | $700 | $531 |
| unranked | 15 | $948 | $139 | +$809 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exalted-Seashore 0x1e0d…bd03 | Yes | +2,100 | $903 | $903 | 1 | 05-13 22:05 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | No | +1,332 | $716 | $716 | 1 | 05-13 05:32 |
| Tough-Mask 0xad52…11ac | No | +1,111 | $622 | $622 | 1 | 05-13 19:49 |
| Strident-Export 0x35e3…9188 | Yes | +814 | $350 | $350 | 3 | 05-13 21:05 |
| Advanced-Shipper 0xa8b3…4484 | No | +755 | $361 | $361 | 1 | 05-13 05:18 |
| Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | Yes | +243 | $105 | $233 | 2 | 05-13 23:20 |
| Bleak-Blank 0xdb9a…b801 | No | +211 | $120 | $120 | 1 | 05-14 01:04 |
| Neglected-Parade 0x0a1d…2d6f | Yes | +51 | $23 | $23 | 1 | 05-13 09:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | +45 | $20 | $29 | 3 | 05-13 22:05 |
| Brief-Howard 0x0e10…b1ff | Yes | +40 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 05-14 10:54 |
| Popular-Depth 0x0f18…5b28 | Yes | +36 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 05-13 19:49 |
| Difficult-Witch 0xc133…2476 | Yes | +22 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-13 20:07 |
| Large-Ecology 0x4282…3455 | Yes | +22 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 05-13 20:58 |
| Red-Hunt 0xdd62…cf51 | No | +20 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 05-14 10:19 |
| Coordinated-Vermicelli 0x66be…1148 | Yes | +18 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-14 16:18 |
| Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | Yes | +15 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 05-14 17:13 |
| Troubled-Lining 0xdbc4…4347 | Yes | +13 | $7 | $33 | 6 | 05-13 22:05 |
| Outrageous-Afterlife 0x79a8…bb66 | Yes | +9 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-13 09:09 |
| Outgoing-Familiarity 0xdc92…c6ce | Yes | +6 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-14 09:44 |
| Luxurious-Appetite 0x442a…850d | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-14 02:44 |
| Thorny-Preference 0xad38…1ca1 | No | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-13 20:03 |
| Appropriate-Challenge 0x964a…51dd | No | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-14 10:09 |
| Narrow-Batting 0x9ba8…34e6 | No | +4 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-14 08:14 |
| French-Cosset 0x13a6…c34d | Yes | +4 | $2 | $7 | 6 | 05-13 22:05 |
| Legitimate-Overclocking 0x9fa4…12c0 | Yes | +4 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-14 08:09 |
| Greedy-Assault 0x8663…a9d9 | Yes | +4 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-14 08:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x78c2…22cf | Yes | +3 | $1 | $3 | 6 | 05-13 22:05 |
| Knowing-Endpoint 0x559b…1580 | Yes | +3 | $1 | $2 | 5 | 05-13 22:05 |
| Corrupt-Tuba 0xb4a4…0973 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 11:14 |
| Rural-Sight 0xe450…91b9 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 09:04 |
| Weighty-Quest 0x3dca…5b4a | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 18:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 17:13:55 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | Yes | BUY | 15 | 46¢ | $7 | 0x47de33… |
| 05-14 16:18:44 | Coordinated-Vermicelli 0x66be…1148 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 45¢ | $8 | 0x1aab71… |
| 05-14 11:14:11 | Corrupt-Tuba 0xb4a4…0973 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 45¢ | $1 | 0x6767f2… |
| 05-14 10:54:40 | Brief-Howard 0x0e10…b1ff | Yes | BUY | 40 | 45¢ | $18 | 0x353f96… |
| 05-14 10:19:49 | Red-Hunt 0xdd62…cf51 | No | BUY | 20 | 56¢ | $11 | 0x84b46d… |
| 05-14 10:09:12 | Appropriate-Challenge 0x964a…51dd | No | BUY | 5 | 56¢ | $3 | 0x586fd3… |
| 05-14 09:44:01 | Outgoing-Familiarity 0xdc92…c6ce | Yes | BUY | 6 | 45¢ | $3 | 0xd26ad1… |
| 05-14 08:44:23 | Greedy-Assault 0x8663…a9d9 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 45¢ | $2 | 0xf84fe8… |
| 05-14 08:14:08 | Narrow-Batting 0x9ba8…34e6 | No | BUY | 4 | 56¢ | $2 | 0x459364… |
| 05-14 08:09:07 | Legitimate-Overclocking 0x9fa4…12c0 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 45¢ | $2 | 0x8654c9… |
| 05-14 02:44:54 | Luxurious-Appetite 0x442a…850d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 44¢ | $2 | 0xd9105e… |
| 05-14 01:04:43 | Bleak-Blank 0xdb9a…b801 | No | BUY | 211 | 57¢ | $120 | 0xb36178… |
| 05-13 23:22:04 | Bold-Guerrilla 0x2721…cf8a | Yes | SELL | 2 | 43¢ | $1 | 0x4bc64a… |
| 05-13 23:20:32 | Red-Girlfriend 0x7b64…8440 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 43¢ | $3 | 0x944373… |
| 05-13 23:20:32 | Outstanding-Change 0xc03f…249d | No | SELL | 145 | 56¢ | $81 | 0x675de4… |
| 05-13 23:20:28 | Phony-Software 0x4708…9580 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 43¢ | $2 | 0x305a62… |
| 05-13 23:20:23 | Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | Yes | SELL | 149 | 43¢ | $64 | 0x3f63d4… |
| 05-13 23:20:23 | Shimmering-Corruption 0x5968…3fc4 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 43¢ | $1 | 0x451a7b… |
| 05-13 23:04:13 | Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | No | SELL | 1,993 | 57¢ | $1,136 | 0x5dff61… |
| 05-13 23:04:13 | Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | Yes | BUY | 392 | 43¢ | $169 | 0x58f660… |
| 05-13 22:05:59 | Utter-Orient 0xe90f…131e | Yes | SELL | 12 | 42¢ | $5 | 0xa3a295… |
| 05-13 22:05:55 | (anonymous) 0x5449…992b | Yes | SELL | 2 | 42¢ | $1 | 0x9d726b… |
| 05-13 22:05:55 | Troubled-Lining 0xdbc4…4347 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 42¢ | $6 | 0x3051e7… |
| 05-13 22:05:53 | Knowing-Endpoint 0x559b…1580 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 42¢ | $0 | 0xc52047… |
| 05-13 22:05:53 | (anonymous) 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | SELL | 11 | 42¢ | $5 | 0x747257… |
| 05-13 22:05:52 | French-Cosset 0x13a6…c34d | Yes | SELL | 3 | 42¢ | $1 | 0x92b379… |
| 05-13 22:05:52 | (anonymous) 0xb4f6…eada | Yes | SELL | 46 | 42¢ | $20 | 0x57e8af… |
| 05-13 22:05:52 | Exalted-Seashore 0x1e0d…bd03 | Yes | BUY | 2,100 | 43¢ | $903 | 0xb9f51f… |
| 05-13 22:05:52 | (anonymous) 0x78c2…22cf | Yes | SELL | 1 | 42¢ | $0 | 0x8befeb… |
| 05-13 21:06:04 | Happy-Go-Lucky-Manicure 0xfe61…e9c2 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 42¢ | $6 | 0xb49876… |
| 05-13 21:06:01 | Knowing-Endpoint 0x559b…1580 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 42¢ | $0 | 0xebd2be… |
| 05-13 21:06:01 | Utter-Orient 0xe90f…131e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 42¢ | $2 | 0x01d950… |
| 05-13 21:05:59 | Utter-Orient 0xe90f…131e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 42¢ | $3 | 0x27bf03… |
| 05-13 21:05:59 | Troubled-Lining 0xdbc4…4347 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 42¢ | $2 | 0x8b3ff6… |
| 05-13 21:05:57 | Utter-Orient 0xe90f…131e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 42¢ | $3 | 0x8969ca… |
| 05-13 21:05:57 | Utter-Orient 0xe90f…131e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 42¢ | $2 | 0x733b68… |
| 05-13 21:05:57 | (anonymous) 0x5449…992b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 42¢ | $0 | 0xe04019… |
| 05-13 21:05:55 | Knowing-Endpoint 0x559b…1580 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 42¢ | $0 | 0x363f89… |
| 05-13 21:05:55 | (anonymous) 0x78c2…22cf | Yes | SELL | 0 | 42¢ | $0 | 0x920e04… |
| 05-13 21:05:55 | Troubled-Lining 0xdbc4…4347 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 42¢ | $3 | 0xbda70c… |
| 05-13 21:05:55 | (anonymous) 0x5449…992b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 42¢ | $0 | 0x32a701… |
| 05-13 21:05:54 | French-Cosset 0x13a6…c34d | Yes | SELL | 1 | 42¢ | $0 | 0xc5390d… |
| 05-13 21:05:54 | (anonymous) 0xb4f6…eada | Yes | SELL | 18 | 42¢ | $8 | 0x550692… |
| 05-13 21:05:54 | Strident-Export 0x35e3…9188 | Yes | BUY | 232 | 43¢ | $100 | 0x3a1db7… |
| 05-13 21:05:52 | Utter-Orient 0xe90f…131e | Yes | SELL | 11 | 42¢ | $5 | 0xbcbdca… |
| 05-13 21:05:52 | (anonymous) 0x5449…992b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 42¢ | $0 | 0x5c1c29… |
| 05-13 21:05:52 | French-Cosset 0x13a6…c34d | Yes | SELL | 1 | 42¢ | $1 | 0xb971e1… |
| 05-13 21:05:52 | Strident-Export 0x35e3…9188 | Yes | BUY | 290 | 43¢ | $125 | 0xc3eda7… |
| 05-13 21:05:52 | Troubled-Lining 0xdbc4…4347 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 42¢ | $3 | 0x4f63e9… |
| 05-13 21:05:52 | (anonymous) 0x78c2…22cf | Yes | SELL | 0 | 42¢ | $0 | 0xd384e0… |
| 05-13 21:05:52 | (anonymous) 0xb4f6…eada | Yes | SELL | 23 | 42¢ | $9 | 0xc5ccc6… |
| 05-13 21:05:52 | Knowing-Endpoint 0x559b…1580 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 42¢ | $0 | 0xd6aaca… |
| 05-13 21:05:50 | French-Cosset 0x13a6…c34d | Yes | SELL | 1 | 42¢ | $1 | 0xc879cf… |
| 05-13 21:05:48 | (anonymous) 0x78c2…22cf | Yes | SELL | 0 | 42¢ | $0 | 0xd1bf09… |
| 05-13 21:05:48 | Strident-Export 0x35e3…9188 | Yes | BUY | 291 | 43¢ | $125 | 0x184066… |
| 05-13 21:05:48 | (anonymous) 0xb4f6…eada | Yes | SELL | 23 | 42¢ | $10 | 0x1e14ad… |
| 05-13 21:05:48 | French-Cosset 0x13a6…c34d | Yes | SELL | 0 | 42¢ | $0 | 0xfaed1f… |
| 05-13 20:58:57 | Happy-Go-Lucky-Manicure 0xfe61…e9c2 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 44¢ | $6 | 0x716640… |
| 05-13 20:58:57 | Utter-Orient 0xe90f…131e | Yes | BUY | 38 | 44¢ | $17 | 0x5c6b0a… |
| 05-13 20:58:50 | Knowing-Endpoint 0x559b…1580 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 44¢ | $2 | 0x9ae3ad… |
| 05-13 20:58:48 | (anonymous) 0x5449…992b | Yes | BUY | 2 | 44¢ | $1 | 0x11b417… |
| 05-13 20:58:48 | (anonymous) 0x78c2…22cf | Yes | BUY | 2 | 44¢ | $1 | 0x327f6a… |
| 05-13 20:58:48 | (anonymous) 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | BUY | 39 | 44¢ | $17 | 0xbd2a03… |
| 05-13 20:58:48 | Troubled-Lining 0xdbc4…4347 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 44¢ | $10 | 0x6eb144… |
| 05-13 20:58:47 | Large-Ecology 0x4282…3455 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 44¢ | $5 | 0x12804b… |
| 05-13 20:58:47 | Awkward-Beginner 0xe74b…ee88 | Yes | SELL | 2,665 | 43¢ | $1,146 | 0x2f8472… |
| 05-13 20:07:51 | Difficult-Witch 0xc133…2476 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 45¢ | $10 | 0x4a3b0a… |
| 05-13 20:03:57 | Thorny-Preference 0xad38…1ca1 | No | BUY | 5 | 56¢ | $3 | 0xbf55da… |
| 05-13 19:49:09 | Troubled-Lining 0xdbc4…4347 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 45¢ | $10 | 0x589542… |
| 05-13 19:49:08 | French-Cosset 0x13a6…c34d | Yes | BUY | 10 | 45¢ | $5 | 0x548560… |
| 05-13 19:49:08 | (anonymous) 0x5449…992b | Yes | BUY | 2 | 45¢ | $1 | 0xff2404… |
| 05-13 19:49:08 | (anonymous) 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | BUY | 17 | 45¢ | $8 | 0xa4abde… |
| 05-13 19:49:08 | Large-Ecology 0x4282…3455 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 45¢ | $5 | 0x3fa7fa… |
| 05-13 19:49:08 | Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | No | BUY | 1,250 | 56¢ | $700 | 0xd13bb5… |
| 05-13 19:49:08 | (anonymous) 0x78c2…22cf | Yes | BUY | 2 | 45¢ | $1 | 0x7925aa… |
| 05-13 19:49:08 | Popular-Depth 0x0f18…5b28 | Yes | BUY | 36 | 45¢ | $16 | 0x7fb094… |
| 05-13 19:49:08 | (anonymous) 0xb4f6…eada | Yes | BUY | 47 | 45¢ | $21 | 0xa3aa94… |
| 05-13 19:49:06 | Tough-Mask 0xad52…11ac | No | BUY | 1,111 | 56¢ | $622 | 0x41b20c… |
| 05-13 18:40:46 | Weighty-Quest 0x3dca…5b4a | No | BUY | 2 | 56¢ | $1 | 0x447de3… |
| 05-13 13:33:22 | Lined-Trinket 0xc9ba…cf54 | No | SELL | 0 | 54¢ | $0 | 0xd0e2df… |
| 05-13 13:33:21 | Lined-Trinket 0xc9ba…cf54 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 45¢ | $3 | 0x4b06be… |
| 05-13 11:58:19 | Verifiable-Obstacle 0x1ee9…197f | No | SELL | 1,129 | 54¢ | $610 | 0xb85129… |
| 05-13 11:38:08 | Stable-Conversation 0xc399…53ab | No | SELL | 33 | 54¢ | $18 | 0xd2dafa… |
| 05-13 09:48:19 | Neglected-Parade 0x0a1d…2d6f | Yes | BUY | 51 | 46¢ | $23 | 0x1329bf… |
| 05-13 09:31:23 | Honest-List 0xc924…4805 | No | SELL | 50 | 53¢ | $26 | 0xd469be… |
| 05-13 09:09:44 | Outrageous-Afterlife 0x79a8…bb66 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 46¢ | $4 | 0xf02dcb… |
| 05-13 09:04:48 | Rural-Sight 0xe450…91b9 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 45¢ | $1 | 0xa8163d… |
| 05-13 06:14:32 | Melodic-Alfalfa 0x9797…c193 | No | SELL | 300 | 57¢ | $171 | 0xd1b1e2… |
| 05-13 05:32:55 | Melodic-Alfalfa 0x9797…c193 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 42¢ | $84 | 0xd5835d… |
| 05-13 05:32:18 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | No | BUY | 1,332 | 54¢ | $716 | 0x0c4448… |
| 05-13 05:18:51 | Advanced-Shipper 0xa8b3…4484 | No | BUY | 755 | 48¢ | $361 | 0xf772c6… |
| 05-13 04:58:24 | Awkward-Beginner 0xe74b…ee88 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 57¢ | $31 | 0xbb2295… |
| 05-13 04:52:06 | Awkward-Beginner 0xe74b…ee88 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 50¢ | $30 | 0x9dd456… |
| 05-13 04:51:54 | Awkward-Beginner 0xe74b…ee88 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 49¢ | $24 | 0x1c3354… |