Threadbare-Signal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$31.7K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.9%

Resolved

Trades

102,962

lifetime

Volume

$1.71M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-10 05:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

64% 33% +$31,833

Other

24% 29% $-137

Crypto

10% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 720 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	317	$98.6K	96,049	95,887	+162	Yes	+$32,085	05-09 11:42
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	615	$58.5K	168,839	124,697	+44,142	open	—	08-02 00:15
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1,332	$50.7K	330,539	250,679	+79,860	open	—	08-10 10:00
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	608	$43.0K	115,199	103,127	+12,072	open	—	02-21 18:15
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	465	$37.1K	60,309	32,062	+28,247	open	—	02-28 00:33
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	348	$33.7K	32,976	25,711	+7,266	open	—	02-27 19:22
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	893	$32.9K	298,119	317,671	-19,552	open	—	05-29 21:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	255	$30.8K	20,482	20,853	-371	open	—	06-21 03:51
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	987	$27.0K	80,216	63,649	+16,567	open	—	02-22 19:15
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	302	$26.6K	72,461	76,213	-3,752	open	—	05-28 13:06
will solana dip to 100 in january 2026	11	$25.9K	25,945	0	+25,945	open	—	01-31 20:39
will ethereum dip to 2400 in january 2026 453	30	$25.1K	25,122	0	+25,122	open	—	01-31 19:50
will bitcoin dip to 80k in february 2026 869 956	5	$21.5K	21,566	0	+21,566	open	—	02-01 07:50
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	178	$20.2K	58,183	38,357	+19,826	open	—	02-21 18:14
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	98	$20.0K	14,698	11,153	+3,545	open	—	06-21 23:23
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	55	$19.2K	76,950	44,420	+32,530	open	—	05-28 19:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	403	$17.5K	47,460	49,064	-1,604	Yes	+$769	05-09 12:59
will ethereum dip to 2600 in january 2026 489	26	$16.7K	16,733	0	+16,733	open	—	01-31 15:05
will trump say six seven this week february 1	9	$16.7K	16,714	0	+16,714	open	—	01-29 21:15
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	143	$16.5K	76,620	76,620	+0	open	—	07-07 20:10
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	675	$16.4K	379,531	390,759	-11,228	open	—	02-13 20:05
us bank failure by january 31	22	$16.2K	16,289	0	+16,289	open	—	01-31 01:33
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	91	$15.8K	38,632	10,318	+28,314	open	—	05-26 13:22
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	596	$15.6K	64,120	82,846	-18,726	open	—	06-23 22:09
will bitcoin dip to 85k in january 2026	2	$15.0K	15,003	0	+15,003	open	—	01-29 16:09
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	560	$14.6K	566,214	96,768	+469,445	open	—	05-12 17:36
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	205	$14.6K	20,379	0	+20,379	open	—	02-05 22:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	32	$14.4K	8,221	7,513	+708	open	—	04-24 18:59
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	8	$14.2K	30,134	11	+30,123	open	—	05-27 00:44
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	280	$13.7K	66,992	69,918	-2,926	open	—	02-16 15:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 10:00:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0x5e5c8a…
08-10 09:07:57	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	8¢	$2	0x421949…
08-10 07:28:51	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0xbd65aa…
08-10 07:23:40	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	8¢	$3	0x36a2d4…
08-10 07:16:15	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	8¢	$10	0x8ba2b2…
08-10 07:10:06	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x79bd55…
08-10 05:00:36	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x7a22f0…
08-10 04:44:54	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$1	0xace23c…
08-10 04:02:46	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x4e49d5…
08-10 02:06:51	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0x69e295…
08-10 01:34:18	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0xa224ff…
08-10 00:05:19	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x1e1405…
08-10 00:04:36	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0x5c4b9b…
08-10 00:03:52	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0xa88e69…
08-09 23:04:55	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x3afd5e…
08-09 22:18:45	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x4dff13…
08-09 20:51:04	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,250	8¢	$100	0x4f420f…
08-09 19:58:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xed8694…
08-09 19:48:10	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	8¢	$18	0xa92df9…
08-09 17:39:34	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xfc53eb…
08-09 17:18:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x0ca0ca…
08-09 16:53:22	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	8¢	$2	0x3793c9…
08-09 16:44:21	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	8¢	$2	0xa86d62…
08-09 16:14:25	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0x03359b…
08-09 15:34:24	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	Yes	BUY	80	16¢	$13	0x560a32…
08-09 15:15:37	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x2f457f…
08-09 15:10:18	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x4bc0ab…
08-09 14:50:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	8¢	$1	0x563bd4…
08-09 14:46:28	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	9¢	$4	0x9f416a…
08-09 14:43:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	10¢	$22	0x05e113…
08-09 12:20:16	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xc04ac5…
08-09 11:55:00	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0xb890f4…
08-09 10:53:21	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	309	2¢	$6	0x0a58c6…
08-09 09:19:06	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,630	8¢	$130	0x7f96ea…
08-09 08:59:45	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,680	8¢	$134	0x8becd1…
08-09 06:56:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xbc4603…
08-09 04:38:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	230	8¢	$18	0x7d797e…
08-09 03:23:07	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	509	5¢	$25	0x403352…
08-09 02:39:33	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x609418…
08-09 02:38:58	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$0	0x8b5338…
08-09 01:38:51	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	375	8¢	$30	0xb4e286…
08-09 01:19:24	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0xb98f8d…
08-08 22:35:30	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,630	8¢	$370	0xe3e8a0…
08-08 19:50:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0xb98c5f…
08-08 19:05:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	8¢	$3	0xda3127…
08-08 17:20:57	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	8¢	$4	0xd259eb…
08-08 15:53:34	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,660	8¢	$133	0x25d013…
08-08 15:42:45	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,111	2¢	$17	0xd4535c…
08-08 15:31:18	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	313	8¢	$25	0xa40647…
08-08 15:19:00	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0x489223…
08-08 14:23:45	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0xd537d9…
08-08 14:12:03	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	8¢	$9	0x5ea4cd…
08-08 14:03:19	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x6691c5…
08-08 13:57:24	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x4c8b55…
08-08 13:24:30	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x624eda…
08-08 13:10:09	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0x37de0e…
08-08 13:00:24	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xf99f6d…
08-08 12:09:06	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0x81410f…
08-08 11:39:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x859b87…
08-08 11:32:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xf6342a…
08-08 11:09:09	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x755698…
08-08 10:20:49	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	Yes	BUY	26	16¢	$4	0xc7615c…
08-08 09:16:00	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x93506a…
08-08 08:56:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x3714bc…
08-08 08:30:07	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xca4c3a…
08-08 08:02:25	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xa130ba…
08-08 06:58:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,435	8¢	$115	0xa218d4…
08-08 06:35:21	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1,111	12¢	$133	0x9dc3d0…
08-08 03:45:22	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0xee643f…
08-08 03:25:54	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0xe1299f…
08-08 03:20:30	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	8¢	$1	0x409070…
08-08 02:15:25	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x505611…
08-08 02:15:21	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x03a21c…
08-08 02:05:15	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x812f32…
08-08 01:45:30	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x1f9521…
08-08 01:02:30	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x2e4dd3…
08-08 00:36:27	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	Yes	BUY	80	18¢	$14	0xb8df19…
08-08 00:07:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,870	8¢	$230	0x0ebe46…
08-07 23:17:57	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x58ae0a…
08-07 22:36:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xe61af2…
08-07 21:38:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	86	8¢	$7	0xe051e8…
08-07 21:05:46	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xeeef54…
08-07 20:59:42	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x910372…
08-07 20:55:33	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x17d890…
08-07 20:49:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xe6b1b6…
08-07 20:27:46	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x0ed58a…
08-07 20:25:25	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0x290a2d…
08-07 20:08:54	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,116	8¢	$249	0x1b1bca…
08-07 19:40:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0x4dced4…
08-07 18:23:36	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	8¢	$4	0xdbe7f1…
08-07 18:03:03	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by december 31 2026 20260701160841000 645	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x63f07f…
08-07 17:59:36	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	8¢	$1	0xe3bd0b…
08-07 17:34:01	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x29debc…
08-07 17:04:48	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xd68900…
08-07 16:08:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x1f3586…
08-07 16:08:51	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0xbdb667…
08-07 15:56:48	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x4b6570…
08-07 15:51:46	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x95d26d…
08-07 15:18:36	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x5376f3…
08-07 15:18:18	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xfd950c…