Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$10,307
$49,030 in 24h
Trades
44
Unique wallets
38
Liquidity
$477,987
Latest YES mid
32¢
Latest NO mid
68¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-04
last 05-05 21:49
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🦐 Shrimp | 38 | $17 | $3.2K | $3.1K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 1 | $10 | — | +$10 |
| unranked | 37 | $7 | $3.2K | $3.1K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proper-Tectonics 0x0164…9ed6 | No | +4,061 | $2,721 | $2,721 | 1 | 05-05 06:45 |
| Bitter-Cartoon 0xa0bc…d428 | No | +200 | $138 | $138 | 1 | 05-05 18:42 |
| Reliable-Airman 0xb04a…acfc | No | +120 | $83 | $83 | 1 | 05-05 18:43 |
| Welcome-Scraper 0xb20f…5737 | No | +94 | $64 | $64 | 1 | 05-05 07:50 |
| Warped-Cyst 0xde02…1401 | No | +50 | $34 | $34 | 1 | 05-05 15:19 |
| Clear-Cut-Gravel 0xb242…eb89 | No | +39 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 05-04 22:39 |
| Frilly-Difference 0x2e6a…7155 | No | +35 | $25 | $25 | 3 | 05-05 05:35 |
| Valuable-Hostess 0x249b…5df1 | Yes | +30 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-05 15:57 |
| Polite-Input 0xe94a…0ff1 | No | +29 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-05 20:03 |
| Wiggly-Robotics 0xdfe5…90b8 | No | +22 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 05-05 13:10 |
| Imaginative-Way 0x2698…0958 | Yes | +14 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-05 14:14 |
| Tattered-Investigation 0x4725…ba00 | No | +11 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-05 16:27 |
| Busy-Agency 0xd26a…00b1 | No | +10 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 05-05 17:54 |
| Early-Supernatural 0x9c6f…8b32 | Yes | +9 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-05 19:27 |
| Unfit-Boutique 0xd0b7…fa4b | No | +8 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-05 18:43 |
| Substantial-Waiter 0x92a0…f764 | No | +7 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 20:03 |
| Sick-Passion 0x14e9…dc86 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-05 03:22 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 21:49:54 | Elaborate-Ore 0x10f5…c397 | No | SELL | 166 | 68¢ | $113 | 0x263564… |
| 05-05 21:45:08 | Angry-Airfield 0x3388…8c29 | No | SELL | 158 | 68¢ | $107 | 0xcae086… |
| 05-05 20:34:50 | Finished-Freelance 0x799f…271c | Yes | SELL | 36 | 31¢ | $11 | 0xc2d40d… |
| 05-05 20:03:38 | Substantial-Waiter 0x92a0…f764 | No | BUY | 7 | 69¢ | $5 | 0xa9564d… |
| 05-05 20:03:28 | Polite-Input 0xe94a…0ff1 | No | BUY | 29 | 69¢ | $20 | 0xd71b11… |
| 05-05 19:27:52 | Early-Supernatural 0x9c6f…8b32 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0xada976… |
| 05-05 18:43:16 | Reliable-Airman 0xb04a…acfc | No | BUY | 120 | 69¢ | $83 | 0x4eb65f… |
| 05-05 18:43:00 | Unfit-Boutique 0xd0b7…fa4b | No | BUY | 8 | 69¢ | $6 | 0xeed51b… |
| 05-05 18:42:50 | Bitter-Cartoon 0xa0bc…d428 | No | BUY | 200 | 69¢ | $138 | 0x78fa0b… |
| 05-05 17:54:52 | Busy-Agency 0xd26a…00b1 | No | BUY | 10 | 69¢ | $7 | 0xdc1275… |
| 05-05 16:42:40 | (anonymous) 0x3ba9…6626 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 31¢ | $7 | 0x65f2fe… |
| 05-05 16:27:44 | Tattered-Investigation 0x4725…ba00 | No | BUY | 11 | 69¢ | $8 | 0xe96267… |
| 05-05 16:07:20 | Submissive-Plough 0xd6ec…fe33 | Yes | SELL | 85 | 31¢ | $26 | 0x69ff4a… |
| 05-05 15:57:30 | Valuable-Hostess 0x249b…5df1 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 32¢ | $10 | 0x84be45… |
| 05-05 15:19:54 | Warped-Cyst 0xde02…1401 | No | BUY | 50 | 69¢ | $34 | 0x03af03… |
| 05-05 14:14:42 | Imaginative-Way 0x2698…0958 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 32¢ | $4 | 0xe15dcb… |
| 05-05 13:45:30 | Pointed-Sitar 0xd008…fa05 | No | SELL | 8 | 68¢ | $5 | 0xc2af86… |
| 05-05 13:45:28 | Offbeat-Flax 0x61d0…87b8 | No | SELL | 8 | 68¢ | $5 | 0x4171dd… |
| 05-05 13:10:24 | Wiggly-Robotics 0xdfe5…90b8 | No | BUY | 22 | 69¢ | $15 | 0x4d2a1f… |
| 05-05 09:31:30 | Improbable-Muffin-Bronchitis 0x8495…b6e8 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 32¢ | $0 | 0x46f7e2… |
| 05-05 09:30:06 | Improbable-Muffin-Bronchitis 0x8495…b6e8 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x5bc913… |
| 05-05 09:26:14 | Improbable-Muffin-Bronchitis 0x8495…b6e8 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 32¢ | $64 | 0x3b7f72… |
| 05-05 09:25:22 | Entire-Frame 0x417b…18d3 | No | SELL | 50 | 67¢ | $34 | 0x032b57… |
| 05-05 07:50:48 | Welcome-Scraper 0xb20f…5737 | No | BUY | 94 | 68¢ | $64 | 0x287eb4… |
| 05-05 07:15:18 | Vigilant-Mambo 0xb631…fa0f | No | SELL | 161 | 67¢ | $108 | 0x7e4dbf… |
| 05-05 07:04:56 | Entire-Frame 0x417b…18d3 | No | SELL | 50 | 67¢ | $34 | 0x1453fa… |
| 05-05 06:45:42 | Proper-Tectonics 0x0164…9ed6 | No | BUY | 4,061 | 67¢ | $2,721 | 0x39de35… |
| 05-05 06:10:28 | Innocent-Apartment 0xae9a…7cea | No | SELL | 3 | 66¢ | $2 | 0xfa3db7… |
| 05-05 06:10:24 | Innocent-Apartment 0xae9a…7cea | No | BUY | 3 | 67¢ | $2 | 0xfc3417… |
| 05-05 05:45:40 | frosique1 0x91c7…b576 | Yes | SELL | 1,110 | 33¢ | $366 | 0x0bebf2… |
| 05-05 05:35:04 | Frilly-Difference 0x2e6a…7155 | No | BUY | 11 | 71¢ | $8 | 0x774496… |
| 05-05 05:30:02 | Frilly-Difference 0x2e6a…7155 | No | BUY | 12 | 71¢ | $8 | 0x4a15d9… |
| 05-05 05:15:12 | Frilly-Difference 0x2e6a…7155 | No | BUY | 13 | 71¢ | $9 | 0x665d18… |
| 05-05 04:55:46 | Original-Specialist 0x06b8…6b77 | No | SELL | 210 | 70¢ | $147 | 0x714e9a… |
| 05-05 04:50:00 | Elliptical-Fellow 0x52b9…dac0 | No | SELL | 157 | 70¢ | $110 | 0x13f566… |
| 05-05 03:22:58 | Sick-Passion 0x14e9…dc86 | No | BUY | 1 | 71¢ | $1 | 0xfa9f30… |
| 05-05 02:39:28 | Dazzling-Musician 0xe90a…d1e6 | No | SELL | 16 | 70¢ | $11 | 0x315409… |
| 05-05 00:24:48 | Juicy-Inventor 0xa9ef…7e5b | No | SELL | 143 | 70¢ | $100 | 0xb8e871… |
| 05-04 23:59:46 | Knowledgeable-Flare 0xc237…561e | No | SELL | 154 | 70¢ | $108 | 0xbab0c6… |
| 05-04 23:34:46 | Jaunty-Shawl 0x4571…760d | No | SELL | 129 | 70¢ | $90 | 0x6ec064… |
| 05-04 22:39:54 | Unconscious-Spouse 0x523a…8e28 | No | SELL | 7,585 | 70¢ | $5,309 | 0xe78edd… |
| 05-04 22:39:54 | Clear-Cut-Gravel 0xb242…eb89 | No | BUY | 39 | 71¢ | $28 | 0x8c0148… |
| 05-04 22:09:44 | Wrong-Playroom 0xaa66…37b0 | No | SELL | 386 | 70¢ | $270 | 0xe020ae… |
| 05-04 20:54:40 | Flowery-Plate 0xd183…41ff | No | SELL | 145 | 70¢ | $102 | 0x39f361… |