Weak-Dinner — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$44.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$43.8K

Hit rate

71.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,871

lifetime

Volume

$3.53M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.23K

Open exposure

$60.2K

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-24 21:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

60% 62% -$160,123

Politics

32% 61% +$198,243

Crypto

8% 57% -$1,047

Sports

0% 67% +$7,701

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 150 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	+50,000	$12,470	28¢	$13.9K	+$1,430	10-23 20:46
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-10,000	-$9,560	97¢	$-9745	-$185	07-24 18:14
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-74,354	-$9,732	13¢	$-9592	+$140	08-22 13:50
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+155,471	$37,417	4¢	$6.6K	-$30,809	10-12 12:53
Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	+11,763	$1,487	55¢	$6.4K	+$4,924	10-19 22:52
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	+9,087	$5,452	59¢	$5.4K	-$91	10-24 21:31
Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	+9,533	$2,412	55¢	$5.2K	+$2,831	10-20 02:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	-10,000	$10,315	18¢	$-1850	-$12,165	09-03 16:33
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+69,538	$2,730	2¢	$1.4K	-$1,304	07-17 18:59
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+50,000	$350	0¢	$75	-$275	09-08 00:01
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	-462	-$46	6¢	$-30	+$16	07-16 02:59
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	+1,000	$261	0¢	$1	-$260	07-23 21:13
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+0	$8,030	4¢	$0	-$8,030	07-27 15:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	164	$425.5K	437,239	0	+437,239	Yes	+$11,753	03-06 02:24
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	251	$339.3K	175,185	184,110	-8,925	No	+$7,198	02-08 23:03
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	122	$316.9K	315,766	25,000	+290,766	Yes	+$23,389	01-24 21:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	62	$273.5K	283,817	0	+283,817	Yes	+$10,330	04-05 16:23
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	82	$211.8K	220,972	0	+220,972	No	+$9,178	02-28 21:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	182	$210.9K	361,429	70,000	+291,429	No	-$195,462	09-15 22:55
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	53	$200.4K	205,000	0	+205,000	No	-$450	06-03 02:02
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$199.4K	100,000	100,000	+0	No	+$250	01-23 23:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	175	$151.7K	176,000	24,697	+151,303	Yes	-$1,149	04-07 23:35
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	85	$133.4K	160,432	160,432	+0	Yes	-$60,535	09-11 15:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	10	$117.7K	80,000	50,000	+30,000	No	+$8,470	04-13 00:21
netanyahu out by march 31 854	41	$98.0K	100,000	0	+100,000	No	+$2,006	03-20 00:52
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	152	$90.1K	186,170	196,170	-10,000	open	—	09-03 16:33
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	11	$84.5K	111,971	0	+111,971	Yes	+$27,426	07-29 17:42
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$56.2K	92,184	0	+92,184	Yes	+$35,952	02-25 01:00
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	51	$54.4K	82,704	9,457	+73,247	Yes	-$997	02-25 18:17
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	52	$41.6K	195,471	40,000	+155,471	open	—	10-12 12:53
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$38.8K	39,948	0	+39,948	No	+$1,142	03-19 23:51
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	101	$37.7K	20,049	25,000	-4,951	No	-$501	01-18 01:38
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	19	$29.4K	20,000	10,000	+10,000	Yes	-$9,830	04-07 03:42
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	140	$25.8K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	07-27 15:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	6	$24.9K	14,634	14,634	+0	Yes	-$2,093	05-06 18:59
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	235	$23.3K	154,885	14,524	+140,361	No	-$9,711	01-30 04:16
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	2	$22.1K	23,269	0	+23,269	No	+$1,140	01-07 02:04
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101	19	$20.9K	22,278	0	+22,278	Yes	+$1,405	01-24 22:18
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	3	$20.6K	28,343	5,777	+22,565	No	+$4,403	01-15 00:01
Netanyahu out by June 30?	133	$19.6K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	+$400	06-08 01:06
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	28	$16.0K	22,221	3,383	+18,837	Yes	-$1,821	01-30 03:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	15	$13.5K	129,516	0	+129,516	Yes	+$116,024	04-02 07:20
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?	8	$13.3K	16,842	0	+16,842	open	—	08-19 02:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 21:31:29	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9,087	60¢	$5,452	0x5d9776…
10-23 20:46:54	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	2,186	22¢	$479	0x4ce39f…
10-21 21:08:47	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	1,079	22¢	$236	0x0c91ab…
10-21 15:37:27	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	1,261	22¢	$276	0xdd829f…
10-21 02:33:57	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	246	22¢	$54	0x9c9a3f…
10-20 22:14:41	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	5,108	22¢	$1,119	0x38c319…
10-20 14:30:51	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	120	22¢	$26	0x9dcf8c…
10-20 02:01:21	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	118	58¢	$69	0xb8add3…
10-20 02:01:21	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	327	58¢	$190	0x81d5af…
10-20 02:00:21	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	935	58¢	$542	0x12257a…
10-20 01:36:44	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0x08779a…
10-20 01:34:06	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0x81c01a…
10-20 01:29:57	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0xca1f6a…
10-20 01:12:47	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	48	58¢	$28	0x9f85ba…
10-20 00:59:44	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0xaf4d0d…
10-20 00:50:12	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0xbc3824…
10-20 00:43:33	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	28	58¢	$16	0x3e279c…
10-20 00:43:21	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,474	58¢	$855	0x225792…
10-20 00:34:57	Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	785	79¢	$620	0xef27a5…
10-19 22:52:32	Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	9,906	13¢	$1,320	0xc1ca85…
10-19 22:52:15	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	3,416	11¢	$391	0xe85ffe…
10-19 22:52:06	Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	806	60¢	$483	0x4a89b1…
10-19 22:51:20	Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,857	9¢	$167	0xc7dfac…
10-19 22:51:11	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	BUY	3,053	8¢	$244	0x2f00eb…
10-19 04:40:56	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	8,598	26¢	$2,210	0x8146a4…
10-19 04:40:41	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	31,386	26¢	$8,066	0x0c08f3…
10-18 18:34:20	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	BUY	16	26¢	$4	0xe74bc3…
10-12 12:53:47	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,001	5¢	$156	0x4e2dec…
10-12 01:17:00	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	5¢	$1	0xfe13b2…
10-12 00:11:08	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xdebd34…
10-11 22:38:15	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0xfba2ab…
10-11 22:31:47	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	5¢	$13	0x38a843…
10-11 10:44:32	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0x083df1…
10-11 08:59:00	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	342	5¢	$18	0xccd8f5…
10-11 08:56:51	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32,569	5¢	$1,694	0x19babf…
10-09 13:44:24	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	5¢	$104	0x18345b…
10-09 09:58:34	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	351	5¢	$18	0xaf4c04…
10-07 12:28:31	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x9bd7d9…
10-07 11:07:45	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	5¢	$1	0x84935e…
10-07 10:06:02	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x74f405…
10-07 09:48:02	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x8ae17a…
10-03 23:01:59	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	57	5¢	$3	0xad8c8d…
10-03 21:41:19	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	5¢	$3	0x160a7b…
10-03 20:02:38	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	5¢	$2	0xfb00bf…
10-03 19:13:07	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	790	5¢	$41	0x958782…
10-03 15:39:32	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x308a42…
10-03 14:46:39	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x2c56fa…
10-03 14:26:05	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	5¢	$8	0x90ad11…
09-15 22:55:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	70,000	11¢	$7,700	0xd8c3fb…
09-11 15:06:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	321	18¢	$58	0x690e92…
09-11 15:05:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xf85b03…
09-11 15:05:40	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	24	18¢	$4	0x87c489…
09-11 15:04:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	18,499	18¢	$3,330	0xb997f0…
09-11 15:04:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	41,926	18¢	$7,547	0xdce4dc…
09-11 14:56:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x97f6ce…
09-11 14:56:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	14	21¢	$3	0x302e18…
09-11 14:56:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x05ddbd…
09-11 14:56:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	174	21¢	$36	0x8a5c89…
09-11 14:56:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	110	21¢	$23	0x7378bc…
09-11 14:54:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x7a7add…
09-11 14:54:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x28b13b…
09-11 14:54:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0xdae73f…
09-11 14:54:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x07a4e6…
09-11 14:54:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0xb2aa4b…
09-11 14:54:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0xc57961…
09-11 14:54:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x3931d9…
09-11 14:54:09	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0xc0b945…
09-11 14:53:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x45b990…
09-11 14:53:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0xd7faaf…
09-11 14:53:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x1ce436…
09-11 14:53:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x25005e…
09-11 14:53:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	273	21¢	$57	0x649632…
09-11 14:53:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	498	21¢	$105	0x133513…
09-11 14:52:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xec7b33…
09-11 14:52:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x60977c…
09-11 14:52:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x33cdb8…
09-11 14:52:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x86deb4…
09-11 14:52:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	9	21¢	$2	0xd2208f…
09-11 14:52:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	33,537	21¢	$7,043	0xa5ec00…
09-08 00:32:19	Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	BUY	220	45¢	$99	0x19d03e…
09-08 00:01:13	Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	50,000	1¢	$350	0xc13094…
09-07 16:01:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	58¢	$1,160	0x763718…
09-07 15:31:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20,000	50¢	$10,000	0x3a43ef…
09-04 23:07:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	21,477	51¢	$10,953	0xf39957…
09-04 18:58:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	381,445	1¢	$2,289	0xc8c513…
09-04 18:53:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x6b99d1…
09-04 18:47:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xc3a6af…
09-04 18:43:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	204	1¢	$1	0x52270a…
09-04 18:43:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	51	1¢	$0	0xe0447b…
09-04 18:41:07	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,176	1¢	$13	0x1e86c6…
09-04 18:12:28	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	43	1¢	$0	0xe7ddc4…
09-04 18:09:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x612791…
09-04 18:08:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$0	0xb92d43…
09-04 17:50:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	399	1¢	$2	0xc82956…
09-04 17:50:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	342	1¢	$2	0xf8c098…
09-04 17:50:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	81	1¢	$0	0xc94753…
09-04 17:13:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x0adb89…
09-04 17:06:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6a95ac…
09-04 16:29:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	24	1¢	$0	0xbe0beb…
09-04 16:25:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	1¢	$0	0x43b440…