Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$7,979,179
$335,460 in 24h
Trades
210,555
Unique wallets
19,210
Liquidity
$979,681
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-08 08:18
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-1.2¢
(top1%: 3% YES on $505.2K
vs crowd: 4% YES on $4.23M)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 69 | $19.5K | $1.40M | $1.38M |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 203 | $28.2K | $1.42M | $1.39M |
| 🐟 Fish | 1,708 | $73.6K | $671.1K | $597.5K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 17,230 | $37.9K | $574.9K | $537.0K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 32 | $13.1K | $492.1K | $479.0K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 110 | $10.9K | $744.6K | $733.7K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 111 | $10.2K | $124.2K | $114.0K |
| Median | 1,674 | $14.3K | $241.0K | $226.8K |
| Below median | 1,732 | $3.6K | $154.7K | $151.2K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 114 | $4.4K | $43.2K | $38.8K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 122 | $8.8K | $78.9K | $70.1K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 33 | $7.1K | $80.7K | $73.6K |
| unranked | 15,282 | $86.8K | $2.11M | $2.02M |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0xd8bf…44ea | Yes | +455,748 | $30,000 | $30,000 | 306 | 06-19 16:45 |
| Worn-Tanker 0xc97b…47e5 | No | +283,457 | $267,192 | $267,192 | 423 | 07-06 17:51 |
| Babyish-Workplace 0x396f…f2a8 | Yes | +243,860 | $16,082 | $16,082 | 1,500 | 06-24 08:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x785d…fab9 | No | +239,333 | $223,537 | $223,537 | 1 | 06-06 14:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x4a41…f4c4 | No | +239,208 | $223,659 | $223,659 | 1 | 06-06 14:47 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | Yes | +166,666 | $9,000 | $9,000 | 48 | 07-01 07:25 |
| Vital-Browser 0xe749…f771 | No | +158,454 | $149,855 | $149,855 | 16 | 07-01 18:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x097d…e19b | No | +119,055 | $111,317 | $111,317 | 1 | 06-06 14:36 |
| Accurate-Competitor 0x60c1…f605 | No | +80,799 | $77,020 | $77,020 | 5 | 07-01 11:47 |
| Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | +78,505 | $73,755 | $73,755 | 437 | 07-07 14:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | +63,861 | $57,160 | $480,403 | 2,295 | 07-06 13:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xbadf…aef3 | No | +62,343 | $58,291 | $58,291 | 1 | 06-06 13:42 |
| Devoted-Offramp 0x527b…eb08 | Yes | +60,120 | $4,000 | $4,000 | 4 | 05-31 20:10 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +55,555 | $51,722 | $51,722 | 1 | 06-18 15:34 |
| SILF 0x7d5d…91d8 | No | +52,379 | $49,171 | $55,807 | 360 | 06-30 08:33 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +37,210 | $2,007 | $2,007 | 685 | 07-06 21:39 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | +36,761 | $1,639 | $8,013 | 213 | 07-03 06:41 |
| Discrete-Species 0xd8e0…c1a7 | No | +34,837 | $32,876 | $32,876 | 763 | 06-28 09:44 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +29,666 | $28,010 | $28,010 | 883 | 07-07 01:03 |
| Self-Reliant-Dad 0xba45…87f3 | Yes | +26,976 | $1,389 | $1,564 | 223 | 07-01 07:25 |
| Hidden-Contrast 0x4ee4…18ef | No | +26,030 | $25,000 | $25,000 | 1 | 07-01 14:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x9f7e…82ce | No | +20,817 | $19,418 | $19,418 | 450 | 06-19 16:45 |
| Limp-Tablecloth 0x94bd…6184 | No | +20,519 | $19,244 | $34,199 | 602 | 06-30 05:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8ff…c93b | No | +20,000 | $18,880 | $18,880 | 40 | 06-26 14:24 |
| Wrathful-Treat 0xdc62…1eb3 | No | +17,081 | $15,960 | $15,960 | 298 | 07-01 11:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c3e…502c | No | +14,012 | $13,246 | $13,246 | 193 | 06-30 16:54 |
| Bruised-Mango 0x6bcd…06b9 | No | +14,000 | $13,138 | $13,138 | 298 | 06-24 21:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c3e…502c | Yes | +13,999 | $781 | $781 | 409 | 06-30 03:41 |
| Bruised-Mango 0x6bcd…06b9 | Yes | +13,994 | $877 | $877 | 145 | 06-24 12:33 |
| Average-Jellybeans 0x3f2d…2adc | Yes | +13,530 | $541 | $14,968 | 6,863 | 07-08 05:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x720d…ea38 | No | +13,000 | $12,223 | $12,223 | 420 | 07-06 15:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | +12,327 | $11,884 | $11,884 | 7 | 07-02 14:48 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +12,322 | $447 | $15,469 | 7,085 | 07-08 07:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xf949…3220 | No | +11,913 | $11,235 | $30,886 | 11 | 06-30 03:41 |
| Sick-Placement 0x0cba…92d3 | No | +11,118 | $10,400 | $10,400 | 2 | 06-21 16:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xdb45…b5d6 | Yes | +10,874 | $712 | $712 | 3 | 06-21 01:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xe4a1…e2bf | No | +10,734 | $10,000 | $10,000 | 1 | 06-09 14:06 |
| Threadbare-Signal 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | +9,286 | $549 | $549 | 111 | 07-01 06:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x2481…9b79 | No | +8,888 | $8,301 | $8,301 | 13 | 06-20 22:16 |
| Good-Natured-Cell 0x052f…53fb | No | +8,728 | $8,152 | $8,152 | 29 | 06-20 23:49 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +8,601 | $8,291 | $8,291 | 211 | 07-06 21:09 |
| Broken-Dogwood 0x24c8…23e1 | No | +8,406 | $7,822 | $14,662 | 73 | 06-17 23:51 |
| Different-Drawer 0x25d7…c2bf | Yes | +8,000 | $408 | $408 | 13 | 07-06 21:09 |
| Heavenly-Cassava 0x753c…e3ad | No | +7,712 | $7,300 | $7,300 | 4 | 07-07 16:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x8257…5c78 | Yes | +6,062 | $250 | $250 | 3 | 07-06 16:54 |
| Babyish-Examination 0xac29…36c7 | Yes | +5,883 | $206 | $206 | 191 | 07-06 11:58 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 08:18:50 | (anonymous) 0x3304…906a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb2b945… |
| 07-08 08:18:50 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 125 | 96¢ | $120 | 0xcad83e… |
| 07-08 08:18:50 | (anonymous) 0x9b1d…9ac7 | No | BUY | 125 | 96¢ | $120 | 0xcad83e… |
| 07-08 08:18:50 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb2b945… |
| 07-08 08:18:41 | (anonymous) 0x3304…906a | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x796d17… |
| 07-08 08:18:41 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x796d17… |
| 07-08 08:15:56 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb35777… |
| 07-08 08:15:56 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb35777… |
| 07-08 08:15:49 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x7c0fc8… |
| 07-08 08:15:49 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x7c0fc8… |
| 07-08 08:15:43 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x515e5b… |
| 07-08 08:15:43 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x515e5b… |
| 07-08 08:15:34 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xcc5ad0… |
| 07-08 08:15:34 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xcc5ad0… |
| 07-08 08:13:49 | (anonymous) 0x8b3c…5513 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x3e5d15… |
| 07-08 08:13:49 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x3e5d15… |
| 07-08 08:13:41 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x29fbf2… |
| 07-08 08:13:41 | (anonymous) 0x8b3c…5513 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x29fbf2… |
| 07-08 08:13:31 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb70af7… |
| 07-08 08:13:31 | (anonymous) 0x1b73…cbb4 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb70af7… |
| 07-08 08:13:23 | (anonymous) 0x1b73…cbb4 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x751f75… |
| 07-08 08:13:23 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x751f75… |
| 07-08 08:12:25 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x02ecf0… |
| 07-08 08:12:25 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x02ecf0… |
| 07-08 08:12:16 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x913aa9… |
| 07-08 08:12:16 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x913aa9… |
| 07-08 08:11:50 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa2a450… |
| 07-08 08:11:50 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa2a450… |
| 07-08 08:11:38 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xfb7ec7… |
| 07-08 08:11:38 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xfb7ec7… |
| 07-08 08:06:40 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xdbc2d4… |
| 07-08 08:06:40 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xdbc2d4… |
| 07-08 08:06:32 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xe20db5… |
| 07-08 08:06:32 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xe20db5… |
| 07-08 08:06:05 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x34aa5c… |
| 07-08 08:06:05 | (anonymous) 0x5f42…e101 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x34aa5c… |
| 07-08 08:05:55 | (anonymous) 0x5f42…e101 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x03e144… |
| 07-08 08:05:55 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x03e144… |
| 07-08 08:04:55 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x1ee96d… |
| 07-08 08:04:55 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x1ee96d… |
| 07-08 08:04:47 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x905536… |
| 07-08 08:04:47 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x905536… |
| 07-08 08:04:23 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x7f5643… |
| 07-08 08:04:23 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x7f5643… |
| 07-08 08:04:16 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc9b402… |
| 07-08 08:04:16 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc9b402… |
| 07-08 08:01:22 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x91aa9a… |
| 07-08 08:01:22 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x91aa9a… |
| 07-08 08:01:11 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xc5a1cb… |
| 07-08 08:01:11 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xc5a1cb… |
| 07-08 08:00:25 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xeaa898… |
| 07-08 08:00:25 | (anonymous) 0x8b3c…5513 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xeaa898… |
| 07-08 08:00:14 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x4a3d9a… |
| 07-08 08:00:14 | (anonymous) 0x8b3c…5513 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x4a3d9a… |
| 07-08 07:52:26 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x75e5b5… |
| 07-08 07:52:26 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x75e5b5… |
| 07-08 07:52:19 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb8ca0a… |
| 07-08 07:52:19 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb8ca0a… |
| 07-08 07:50:55 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xcd9acd… |
| 07-08 07:50:55 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xcd9acd… |
| 07-08 07:50:47 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xdf4b4b… |
| 07-08 07:50:47 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xdf4b4b… |
| 07-08 07:49:23 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb0ad8a… |
| 07-08 07:49:23 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb0ad8a… |
| 07-08 07:49:16 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb44be8… |
| 07-08 07:49:16 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb44be8… |
| 07-08 07:48:35 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 267 | 4¢ | $10 | 0x3f9c1d… |
| 07-08 07:48:35 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | BUY | 33 | 96¢ | $31 | 0x3f9c1d… |
| 07-08 07:48:35 | Simplistic-Jellyfish 0xcdf8…b8ea | No | SELL | 300 | 96¢ | $288 | 0x3f9c1d… |
| 07-08 07:44:49 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 47 | 96¢ | $45 | 0xdae4b6… |
| 07-08 07:44:49 | Enlightened-Calorie 0x368d…f2e0 | No | BUY | 47 | 96¢ | $45 | 0xdae4b6… |
| 07-08 07:43:22 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xea95a8… |
| 07-08 07:43:22 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xea95a8… |
| 07-08 07:43:14 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x68f320… |
| 07-08 07:43:14 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x68f320… |
| 07-08 07:41:25 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x55b93c… |
| 07-08 07:41:25 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x55b93c… |
| 07-08 07:41:14 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x68813d… |
| 07-08 07:41:14 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x68813d… |
| 07-08 07:39:58 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x085aa2… |
| 07-08 07:39:58 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x085aa2… |
| 07-08 07:39:50 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa5958d… |
| 07-08 07:39:50 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa5958d… |
| 07-08 07:39:47 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa3969d… |
| 07-08 07:39:47 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa3969d… |
| 07-08 07:39:40 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x654f4c… |
| 07-08 07:39:40 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x654f4c… |
| 07-08 07:35:23 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xd6ddb2… |
| 07-08 07:35:23 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd6ddb2… |
| 07-08 07:35:14 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x114370… |
| 07-08 07:35:14 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x114370… |
| 07-08 07:34:50 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa66293… |
| 07-08 07:34:50 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa66293… |
| 07-08 07:34:43 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf41f80… |
| 07-08 07:34:43 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf41f80… |
| 07-08 07:31:25 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xe04924… |
| 07-08 07:31:25 | (anonymous) 0xca84…27f4 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xe04924… |
| 07-08 07:31:17 | (anonymous) 0xae28…638a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x533989… |
| 07-08 07:31:17 | (anonymous) 0xca84…27f4 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x533989… |
| 07-08 07:30:38 | (anonymous) 0x5f42…e101 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x274740… |