Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$10,103,535
$335,460 in 24h
Trades
274,205
Unique wallets
21,234
Liquidity
$979,681
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 08-17 17:38
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.5¢
(top1%: 3% YES on $607.3K
vs crowd: 3% YES on $5.24M)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 90 | $24.2K | $1.86M | $1.84M |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 259 | $31.4K | $1.68M | $1.65M |
| 🐟 Fish | 2,282 | $78.5K | $870.7K | $792.1K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 18,602 | $40.0K | $648.6K | $608.6K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 41 | $16.9K | $590.3K | $573.4K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 156 | $11.7K | $1.02M | $1.01M |
| ✅ Top 10% | 185 | $12.3K | $180.7K | $168.5K |
| Median | 2,164 | $14.6K | $332.4K | $317.7K |
| Below median | 1,815 | $3.8K | $171.0K | $167.2K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 135 | $4.6K | $86.6K | $82.0K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 171 | $10.0K | $116.2K | $106.1K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 41 | $7.9K | $94.6K | $86.6K |
| unranked | 16,525 | $92.4K | $2.47M | $2.38M |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0xd8bf…44ea | Yes | +455,748 | $30,000 | $30,000 | 306 | 06-19 16:45 |
| Babyish-Workplace 0x396f…f2a8 | Yes | +245,714 | $16,155 | $16,155 | 1,502 | 07-25 01:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x785d…fab9 | No | +239,333 | $223,537 | $223,537 | 1 | 06-06 14:53 |
| Worn-Tanker 0xc97b…47e5 | No | +223,969 | $210,035 | $452,279 | 2,311 | 08-05 16:03 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | Yes | +166,666 | $9,000 | $9,000 | 48 | 07-01 07:25 |
| Vital-Browser 0xe749…f771 | No | +164,915 | $156,067 | $156,067 | 20 | 07-18 18:08 |
| Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | +161,772 | $153,765 | $153,765 | 1,376 | 08-08 07:05 |
| Accurate-Competitor 0x60c1…f605 | No | +81,188 | $77,394 | $77,394 | 7 | 08-07 10:00 |
| Discrete-Species 0xd8e0…c1a7 | No | +78,091 | $74,473 | $74,473 | 1,391 | 08-15 01:06 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +74,455 | $69,866 | $69,866 | 6 | 08-08 07:51 |
| Weak-Dinner 0xb1a2…372a | Yes | +69,538 | $2,730 | $2,730 | 2 | 07-17 18:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x097d…e19b | No | +64,017 | $58,370 | $164,263 | 238 | 08-17 06:06 |
| Devoted-Offramp 0x527b…eb08 | Yes | +60,120 | $4,000 | $4,000 | 4 | 05-31 20:10 |
| SILF 0x7d5d…91d8 | No | +57,279 | $53,851 | $95,139 | 696 | 08-13 07:59 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +53,101 | $2,616 | $2,616 | 891 | 08-11 16:57 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +46,091 | $43,786 | $43,786 | 1,153 | 08-09 05:38 |
| Hidden-Contrast 0x4ee4…18ef | No | +33,517 | $32,210 | $32,210 | 2 | 07-14 08:31 |
| Exhausted-Tanktop 0x8349…c99d | No | +31,251 | $30,019 | $30,019 | 113 | 07-15 11:58 |
| Self-Reliant-Dad 0xba45…87f3 | Yes | +26,976 | $1,389 | $1,564 | 223 | 07-01 07:25 |
| Good-Natured-Cell 0x052f…53fb | No | +26,742 | $25,427 | $25,427 | 136 | 08-03 05:53 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +22,239 | $21,385 | $21,385 | 319 | 08-02 22:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x9f7e…82ce | No | +20,817 | $19,418 | $19,418 | 450 | 06-19 16:45 |
| Limp-Tablecloth 0x94bd…6184 | No | +20,519 | $19,244 | $34,199 | 602 | 06-30 05:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | +20,291 | $19,537 | $19,537 | 128 | 08-17 16:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8ff…c93b | No | +20,000 | $18,880 | $18,880 | 40 | 06-26 14:24 |
| (anonymous) 0xfca7…5e0a | No | +18,988 | $18,281 | $18,281 | 30 | 07-27 08:13 |
| Babyish-Examination 0xac29…36c7 | Yes | +17,393 | $588 | $925 | 326 | 08-01 06:53 |
| Wrathful-Treat 0xdc62…1eb3 | No | +17,356 | $16,223 | $16,223 | 302 | 07-30 22:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | +16,700 | $16,062 | $16,062 | 105 | 07-19 21:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | +15,818 | $15,177 | $22,360 | 282 | 08-02 08:06 |
| Crazy-Hydrant 0x2f33…0479 | Yes | +14,679 | $528 | $528 | 304 | 08-14 06:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c3e…502c | No | +14,012 | $13,246 | $13,246 | 193 | 06-30 16:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xb723…0065 | No | +14,007 | $13,460 | $13,460 | 3 | 07-20 12:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c3e…502c | Yes | +13,999 | $781 | $781 | 409 | 06-30 03:41 |
| Bruised-Mango 0x6bcd…06b9 | Yes | +13,994 | $877 | $877 | 145 | 06-24 12:33 |
| Bruised-Mango 0x6bcd…06b9 | No | +13,984 | $13,123 | $13,153 | 299 | 08-13 13:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x720d…ea38 | No | +13,000 | $12,223 | $12,223 | 420 | 07-06 15:36 |
| Wee-Contractor-Alibi 0x61c7…5ddb | No | +12,836 | $12,307 | $16,535 | 14 | 08-15 12:03 |
| Boiling-Framework 0xf368…17b4 | Yes | +12,702 | $490 | $490 | 545 | 08-17 07:00 |
| Boiling-Framework 0xf368…17b4 | No | +12,647 | $12,157 | $12,157 | 255 | 08-15 01:06 |
| Threadbare-Signal 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | +11,465 | $625 | $625 | 172 | 07-27 04:29 |
| Sick-Placement 0x0cba…92d3 | No | +11,118 | $10,400 | $10,400 | 2 | 06-21 16:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x856a…4ea2 | No | +10,910 | $10,452 | $10,452 | 92 | 07-21 20:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xdb45…b5d6 | Yes | +10,874 | $712 | $712 | 3 | 06-21 01:16 |
| Spry-Netbook 0xa65c…32fb | Yes | +10,300 | $386 | $664 | 77 | 07-12 00:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | +10,000 | $380 | $380 | 74 | 07-28 14:32 |
| Eatpraylove 0xc021…1fa8 | Yes | +10,000 | $380 | $380 | 152 | 07-26 00:07 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-17 17:38:42 | Competent-Tulip 0x57de…cd90 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xd5481a… |
| 08-17 17:38:42 | (anonymous) 0xbd72…529f | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xd5481a… |
| 08-17 16:33:27 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xd9a082… |
| 08-17 16:33:27 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xd9a082… |
| 08-17 16:33:18 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xed3bb1… |
| 08-17 16:33:18 | Competent-Tulip 0x57de…cd90 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xed3bb1… |
| 08-17 16:32:46 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x89f619… |
| 08-17 16:32:46 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x89f619… |
| 08-17 16:32:37 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xd001c7… |
| 08-17 16:32:37 | Competent-Tulip 0x57de…cd90 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xd001c7… |
| 08-17 16:32:28 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xc0614c… |
| 08-17 16:32:28 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xc0614c… |
| 08-17 16:32:15 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xc32740… |
| 08-17 16:32:15 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xc32740… |
| 08-17 16:32:15 | Competent-Tulip 0x57de…cd90 | No | SELL | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0xc32740… |
| 08-17 16:32:03 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x6b538b… |
| 08-17 16:32:03 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x6b538b… |
| 08-17 16:31:42 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x0838b4… |
| 08-17 16:31:42 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x0838b4… |
| 08-17 16:31:31 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x294b45… |
| 08-17 16:31:31 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x294b45… |
| 08-17 16:31:19 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xc27005… |
| 08-17 16:31:19 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xc27005… |
| 08-17 16:31:07 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xa97060… |
| 08-17 16:31:07 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xa97060… |
| 08-17 16:30:48 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xb3d291… |
| 08-17 16:30:48 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xb3d291… |
| 08-17 16:18:10 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xc3b827… |
| 08-17 16:18:10 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xc3b827… |
| 08-17 16:17:58 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x7e1bac… |
| 08-17 16:17:58 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x7e1bac… |
| 08-17 16:14:39 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xd6d87f… |
| 08-17 16:14:39 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xd6d87f… |
| 08-17 16:14:27 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x6cd2a6… |
| 08-17 16:14:27 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x6cd2a6… |
| 08-17 16:13:30 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xd20c2a… |
| 08-17 16:13:30 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xd20c2a… |
| 08-17 16:13:21 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x67b75e… |
| 08-17 16:13:21 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x67b75e… |
| 08-17 16:13:10 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x742647… |
| 08-17 16:13:10 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x742647… |
| 08-17 16:13:01 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x644a44… |
| 08-17 16:13:01 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x644a44… |
| 08-17 16:12:52 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xe3dad4… |
| 08-17 16:12:52 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xe3dad4… |
| 08-17 16:12:40 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x733f71… |
| 08-17 16:12:40 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x733f71… |
| 08-17 16:12:28 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x1e5a2f… |
| 08-17 16:12:28 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x1e5a2f… |
| 08-17 16:12:19 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x1b369c… |
| 08-17 16:12:19 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x1b369c… |
| 08-17 16:12:09 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xcf0d29… |
| 08-17 16:12:09 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xcf0d29… |
| 08-17 16:11:52 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xdc6d71… |
| 08-17 16:11:52 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xdc6d71… |
| 08-17 16:11:36 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x40ebb4… |
| 08-17 16:11:36 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x40ebb4… |
| 08-17 16:11:24 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xe5af90… |
| 08-17 16:11:24 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xe5af90… |
| 08-17 15:57:10 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 332 | 96¢ | $319 | 0xf19ac9… |
| 08-17 15:57:10 | Awful-Inheritance 0x4e57…f99f | No | SELL | 332 | 96¢ | $319 | 0xf19ac9… |
| 08-17 15:48:30 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x9100b2… |
| 08-17 15:48:30 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x9100b2… |
| 08-17 15:48:19 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x760f5c… |
| 08-17 15:48:19 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x760f5c… |
| 08-17 15:48:01 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x3156de… |
| 08-17 15:48:01 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x3156de… |
| 08-17 15:47:33 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x066181… |
| 08-17 15:47:33 | (anonymous) 0xcccb…8590 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x066181… |
| 08-17 14:19:45 | (anonymous) 0x84af…e455 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x1ed054… |
| 08-17 14:19:45 | (anonymous) 0xf085…e463 | No | BUY | 229 | 96¢ | $220 | 0x1ed054… |
| 08-17 14:19:45 | Moist-Order 0x8bc8…97dc | No | SELL | 227 | 96¢ | $218 | 0x1ed054… |
| 08-17 14:01:01 | (anonymous) 0x84af…e455 | No | SELL | 98 | 96¢ | $94 | 0x28a1e8… |
| 08-17 14:01:01 | Noxious-Lumberman 0xecb9…bdd4 | No | BUY | 98 | 96¢ | $94 | 0x28a1e8… |
| 08-17 13:35:45 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 775 | 96¢ | $745 | 0x6df893… |
| 08-17 13:35:45 | (anonymous) 0xd7b9…558d | No | SELL | 775 | 96¢ | $745 | 0x6df893… |
| 08-17 13:13:16 | Wooden-Cinema 0x648b…00ba | No | SELL | 13 | 96¢ | $13 | 0x7452ed… |
| 08-17 13:13:16 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 13 | 96¢ | $13 | 0x7452ed… |
| 08-17 12:46:33 | (anonymous) 0x84af…e455 | No | SELL | 161 | 96¢ | $155 | 0x79760b… |
| 08-17 12:46:33 | Vivid-Toaster 0xd105…2e5f | No | BUY | 161 | 96¢ | $155 | 0x79760b… |
| 08-17 12:45:37 | (anonymous) 0x14e7…fe15 | No | SELL | 436 | 96¢ | $419 | 0xc1850b… |
| 08-17 12:45:37 | (anonymous) 0x84af…e455 | No | SELL | 97 | 96¢ | $94 | 0xc1850b… |
| 08-17 12:45:37 | (anonymous) 0xb350…8357 | No | SELL | 413 | 96¢ | $397 | 0xc1850b… |
| 08-17 12:45:37 | Prudent-Kill-Cytoplasm 0x4aea…faae | No | SELL | 27 | 96¢ | $26 | 0xc1850b… |
| 08-17 12:45:37 | (anonymous) 0x5391…f460 | No | SELL | 95 | 96¢ | $91 | 0xc1850b… |
| 08-17 12:45:37 | Mortified-Gravitas 0xf4b7…c61f | No | BUY | 1,448 | 96¢ | $1,393 | 0xc1850b… |
| 08-17 12:45:37 | (anonymous) 0x77d4…c267 | No | SELL | 380 | 96¢ | $366 | 0xc1850b… |
| 08-17 11:22:33 | (anonymous) 0xe69a…b835 | Yes | BUY | 385 | 4¢ | $15 | 0x437ad2… |
| 08-17 11:22:33 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 385 | 96¢ | $370 | 0x437ad2… |
| 08-17 10:05:09 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0x5da9c6… |
| 08-17 10:05:09 | (anonymous) 0xc496…3e38 | No | SELL | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0x5da9c6… |
| 08-17 10:05:03 | (anonymous) 0x5391…f460 | No | SELL | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0x42e3d6… |
| 08-17 10:05:03 | (anonymous) 0xc496…3e38 | No | BUY | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0x42e3d6… |
| 08-17 10:04:55 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0x3b8cb7… |
| 08-17 10:04:55 | (anonymous) 0xc496…3e38 | No | SELL | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0x3b8cb7… |
| 08-17 10:04:48 | (anonymous) 0x5391…f460 | No | SELL | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0xaac15e… |
| 08-17 10:04:48 | (anonymous) 0xc496…3e38 | No | BUY | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0xaac15e… |
| 08-17 10:04:40 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0xd2fb2a… |
| 08-17 10:04:40 | (anonymous) 0xc496…3e38 | No | SELL | 12 | 96¢ | $12 | 0xd2fb2a… |
| 08-17 10:04:37 | (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | BUY | 26 | 96¢ | $25 | 0xbc54c3… |