Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$3,529,751
$335,460 in 24h
Trades
72,571
Unique wallets
10,645
Liquidity
$979,681
Latest YES mid
7¢
Latest NO mid
93¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-09 22:57
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+8.5¢
(top1%: 12% YES on $16.1K
vs crowd: 3% YES on $1.71M)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 35 | $2.7K | $170.3K | $167.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 80 | $6.2K | $943.0K | $936.8K |
| 🐟 Fish | 732 | $25.6K | $217.2K | $191.6K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 9,797 | $23.4K | $320.1K | $296.7K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 18 | $1.9K | $14.2K | $12.3K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 43 | $3.9K | $36.1K | $32.2K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 66 | $4.6K | $63.5K | $58.9K |
| Median | 687 | $9.8K | $57.5K | $47.7K |
| Below median | 830 | $1.2K | $56.0K | $54.8K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 34 | $1.4K | $3.3K | $1.8K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 41 | $2.8K | $39.9K | $37.2K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 17 | $239 | $55.7K | $55.5K |
| unranked | 8,908 | $32.0K | $1.32M | $1.29M |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | +287,469 | $268,781 | $268,781 | 3 | 06-07 00:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x785d…fab9 | No | +239,333 | $223,537 | $223,537 | 1 | 06-06 14:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x4a41…f4c4 | No | +239,208 | $223,659 | $223,659 | 1 | 06-06 14:47 |
| Babyish-Workplace 0x396f…f2a8 | Yes | +181,382 | $11,984 | $11,984 | 1,494 | 06-09 17:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x097d…e19b | No | +119,055 | $111,317 | $111,317 | 1 | 06-06 14:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xbadf…aef3 | No | +62,343 | $58,291 | $58,291 | 1 | 06-06 13:42 |
| Devoted-Offramp 0x527b…eb08 | Yes | +60,120 | $4,000 | $4,000 | 4 | 05-31 20:10 |
| SILF 0x7d5d…91d8 | No | +32,379 | $30,242 | $30,242 | 236 | 06-01 19:28 |
| Worn-Tanker 0xc97b…47e5 | No | +15,603 | $14,581 | $14,581 | 123 | 06-09 03:36 |
| Outstanding-Jumpsuit 0xb034…1340 | Yes | +14,479 | $1,000 | $1,000 | 3 | 06-09 13:31 |
| Accurate-Competitor 0x60c1…f605 | No | +13,241 | $12,381 | $12,381 | 1 | 06-01 13:07 |
| Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | +11,425 | $10,683 | $10,683 | 28 | 06-06 10:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x9f7e…82ce | No | +11,110 | $10,349 | $10,349 | 423 | 06-09 17:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xe4a1…e2bf | No | +10,734 | $10,000 | $10,000 | 1 | 06-09 14:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xaad3…f49e | No | +8,236 | $7,691 | $10,642 | 33 | 05-30 17:42 |
| Broken-Dogwood 0x24c8…23e1 | No | +6,666 | $6,206 | $6,206 | 5 | 06-08 15:06 |
| Sick-Placement 0x0cba…92d3 | No | +5,360 | $5,000 | $5,000 | 1 | 06-08 18:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x64aa…f81e | No | +5,350 | $4,992 | $4,992 | 1 | 06-09 15:36 |
| Fixed-Dredger 0x6770…45fb | No | +5,000 | $4,655 | $13,995 | 25 | 06-09 17:48 |
| Demanding-Rust 0xf933…52fb | No | +5,000 | $4,650 | $4,650 | 85 | 06-09 08:28 |
| Rich-Try 0xd5e3…e379 | No | +4,993 | $4,658 | $4,658 | 50 | 06-01 00:13 |
| Heavenly-Cassava 0x753c…e3ad | No | +4,278 | $4,000 | $4,000 | 1 | 05-30 06:16 |
| Genuine-Segment 0xd34b…0004 | No | +3,897 | $3,620 | $3,620 | 90 | 06-09 21:59 |
| Subdued-Revenant 0xcf07…c770 | No | +3,417 | $3,183 | $3,183 | 41 | 06-08 15:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xd5e8…871d | Yes | +3,235 | $220 | $220 | 1 | 06-07 08:40 |
| Attractive-Harpsichord 0x02ad…a1fc | Yes | +3,175 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-04 11:16 |
| Overjoyed-Scam 0xc5b5…9c30 | Yes | +3,175 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-04 11:14 |
| Black-And-White-Plywood 0xef58…b722 | Yes | +3,109 | $193 | $1,040 | 84 | 06-08 09:45 |
| Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | Yes | +2,995 | $218 | $1,397 | 11 | 06-09 17:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | +2,774 | $2,589 | $18,368 | 1,114 | 06-08 05:29 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +2,625 | $172 | $172 | 121 | 06-08 19:58 |
| Noted-Pathogenesis 0x6e85…1f81 | Yes | +2,620 | $187 | $483 | 84 | 06-07 05:49 |
| Natural-Intensity 0x9cb9…7b80 | No | +2,500 | $2,328 | $2,328 | 1 | 06-09 11:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xb2c6…3654 | No | +2,400 | $2,239 | $2,239 | 1 | 05-31 22:04 |
| Powerless-Email 0x1e34…b86f | No | +2,400 | $2,244 | $2,244 | 128 | 06-07 22:22 |
| Grounded-Snug 0xbfb3…4b43 | No | +2,316 | $2,100 | $28,680 | 647 | 06-08 09:44 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +2,259 | $2,110 | $2,110 | 100 | 06-09 18:06 |
| Noxious-Lumberman 0xecb9…bdd4 | No | +2,034 | $1,901 | $1,901 | 3 | 06-07 16:51 |
| Trustworthy-Break 0x327c…86ef | Yes | +2,000 | $132 | $132 | 3 | 06-06 16:21 |
| Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | +2,000 | $1,864 | $1,864 | 5 | 06-09 17:48 |
| Dapper-Grandfather 0x85c9…8bea | No | +2,000 | $1,870 | $1,870 | 1 | 05-31 08:43 |
| Optimal-Cantaloupe 0x0784…f127 | Yes | +1,852 | $116 | $758 | 95 | 06-03 08:03 |
| Fortunate-Constellation 0xfaf5…75e5 | Yes | +1,839 | $105 | $3,808 | 1,280 | 06-08 15:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x6351…ef7f | Yes | +1,538 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-08 13:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x144e…75ba | Yes | +1,500 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-06 20:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x56e0…4f24 | Yes | +1,500 | $100 | $100 | 18 | 06-06 23:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x01bc…dbe4 | Yes | +1,468 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-06 21:30 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-09 22:57:45 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x62a3cd… |
| 06-09 22:57:45 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x62a3cd… |
| 06-09 22:57:10 | Sugary-Peen 0x469c…309b | Yes | SELL | 38 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x055c35… |
| 06-09 22:57:10 | (anonymous) 0x13f5…7d59 | No | SELL | 62 | 93¢ | $58 | 0x854757… |
| 06-09 22:57:10 | Spicy-Peer 0xf5e9…cf1f | No | SELL | 38 | 93¢ | $35 | 0x055c35… |
| 06-09 22:57:10 | Sugary-Peen 0x469c…309b | Yes | SELL | 62 | 7¢ | $4 | 0x854757… |
| 06-09 22:55:58 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xda08f4… |
| 06-09 22:55:58 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xda08f4… |
| 06-09 22:55:54 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $6 | 0xca7d85… |
| 06-09 22:55:54 | (anonymous) 0x3304…906a | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x34544e… |
| 06-09 22:55:54 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x34544e… |
| 06-09 22:55:54 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xca7d85… |
| 06-09 22:55:43 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 56 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xf0b979… |
| 06-09 22:55:43 | Insistent-Haversack 0x7817…c98e | No | BUY | 67 | 93¢ | $63 | 0xf0b979… |
| 06-09 22:55:43 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xf0b979… |
| 06-09 22:55:25 | Sugary-Peen 0x469c…309b | Yes | SELL | 17 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xff9988… |
| 06-09 22:55:25 | Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | BUY | 183 | 93¢ | $170 | 0xff9988… |
| 06-09 22:55:25 | Jaded-Announcement 0xa58c…a1e2 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 7¢ | $14 | 0xff9988… |
| 06-09 22:55:21 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 64 | 7¢ | $5 | 0x909775… |
| 06-09 22:55:21 | Ruddy-Serum 0xff45…0913 | No | BUY | 64 | 93¢ | $60 | 0x909775… |
| 06-09 22:52:55 | (anonymous) 0x8b3c…5513 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xfcbac0… |
| 06-09 22:52:55 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xfcbac0… |
| 06-09 22:52:54 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xd6a485… |
| 06-09 22:52:54 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x18fe81… |
| 06-09 22:52:54 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xd6a485… |
| 06-09 22:52:54 | (anonymous) 0x5f42…e101 | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $6 | 0x18fe81… |
| 06-09 22:52:06 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xa8c173… |
| 06-09 22:52:06 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xa8c173… |
| 06-09 22:52:04 | (anonymous) 0xc03d…ca87 | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $6 | 0xfa6bd8… |
| 06-09 22:52:04 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xfa6bd8… |
| 06-09 22:44:18 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x78a717… |
| 06-09 22:44:18 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x78a717… |
| 06-09 22:41:39 | Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xa241ce… |
| 06-09 22:41:39 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xa241ce… |
| 06-09 22:41:07 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x8ed28f… |
| 06-09 22:41:07 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x8ed28f… |
| 06-09 22:39:34 | (anonymous) 0xca84…27f4 | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $6 | 0x4de527… |
| 06-09 22:39:34 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x4de527… |
| 06-09 22:32:37 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | SELL | 11 | 93¢ | $10 | 0xc5f6a8… |
| 06-09 22:32:37 | Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | BUY | 11 | 93¢ | $10 | 0xc5f6a8… |
| 06-09 22:32:10 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xb44efc… |
| 06-09 22:32:10 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xb44efc… |
| 06-09 22:32:09 | (anonymous) 0x8b3c…5513 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xc0223a… |
| 06-09 22:32:09 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xc0223a… |
| 06-09 22:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x2053…1247 | No | SELL | 29 | 93¢ | $27 | 0xe1a7a1… |
| 06-09 22:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x8e0e…0041 | No | SELL | 44 | 93¢ | $41 | 0xacc942… |
| 06-09 22:31:34 | Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | BUY | 30 | 93¢ | $28 | 0x608fc3… |
| 06-09 22:31:34 | Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | BUY | 47 | 93¢ | $44 | 0xa45adc… |
| 06-09 22:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x5c9a…7500 | No | SELL | 47 | 93¢ | $44 | 0xa45adc… |
| 06-09 22:31:34 | Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | BUY | 44 | 93¢ | $41 | 0xacc942… |
| 06-09 22:31:34 | Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | BUY | 29 | 93¢ | $27 | 0xe1a7a1… |
| 06-09 22:31:34 | (anonymous) 0xd62b…2ee4 | No | SELL | 30 | 93¢ | $28 | 0x608fc3… |
| 06-09 22:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x4ef5…5757 | No | SELL | 41 | 93¢ | $38 | 0x2b0ea6… |
| 06-09 22:31:34 | Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | BUY | 41 | 93¢ | $38 | 0x2b0ea6… |
| 06-09 22:30:34 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 63 | 7¢ | $5 | 0x186008… |
| 06-09 22:30:34 | Relieved-Cry 0x64be…c653 | No | SELL | 18 | 93¢ | $17 | 0x186008… |
| 06-09 22:30:34 | Respectful-Unblinking 0x8bba…9724 | No | BUY | 82 | 93¢ | $76 | 0x186008… |
| 06-09 22:30:24 | Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x2be697… |
| 06-09 22:30:24 | (anonymous) 0x3304…906a | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x2be697… |
| 06-09 22:30:22 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 11 | 93¢ | $10 | 0x5f8a62… |
| 06-09 22:30:22 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x5f8a62… |
| 06-09 22:30:22 | Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | BUY | 4 | 93¢ | $4 | 0x5f8a62… |
| 06-09 22:29:54 | Relieved-Cry 0x64be…c653 | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x34028d… |
| 06-09 22:29:54 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x34028d… |
| 06-09 22:29:45 | Relieved-Cry 0x64be…c653 | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xa0c464… |
| 06-09 22:29:45 | (anonymous) 0x3304…906a | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xa0c464… |
| 06-09 22:28:45 | Relieved-Cry 0x64be…c653 | No | SELL | 68 | 93¢ | $63 | 0xcf361d… |
| 06-09 22:28:45 | Quaint-Smog 0xac4c…3813 | No | BUY | 68 | 93¢ | $63 | 0xcf361d… |
| 06-09 22:28:13 | Relieved-Cry 0x64be…c653 | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x6dc851… |
| 06-09 22:28:13 | (anonymous) 0x1b73…cbb4 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x6dc851… |
| 06-09 22:27:04 | Relieved-Cry 0x64be…c653 | No | SELL | 2 | 93¢ | $2 | 0xbe9447… |
| 06-09 22:27:04 | (anonymous) 0x5f42…e101 | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $6 | 0xbe9447… |
| 06-09 22:27:04 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 4 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xbe9447… |
| 06-09 22:26:25 | (anonymous) 0xca84…27f4 | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $6 | 0xdc6d77… |
| 06-09 22:26:25 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xdc6d77… |
| 06-09 22:25:49 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xea54d7… |
| 06-09 22:25:49 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xea54d7… |
| 06-09 22:25:22 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 47 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x55be3d… |
| 06-09 22:25:22 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 32 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x2b1591… |
| 06-09 22:25:22 | (anonymous) 0x56a3…2666 | No | SELL | 32 | 93¢ | $30 | 0x2b1591… |
| 06-09 22:25:22 | (anonymous) 0xb762…6c34 | No | SELL | 41 | 93¢ | $38 | 0xfc7146… |
| 06-09 22:25:22 | (anonymous) 0x89fb…91b8 | No | SELL | 47 | 93¢ | $44 | 0x55be3d… |
| 06-09 22:25:22 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 52 | 7¢ | $4 | 0x405c9f… |
| 06-09 22:25:22 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 41 | 7¢ | $3 | 0xfc7146… |
| 06-09 22:25:22 | (anonymous) 0xa174…07f2 | No | SELL | 52 | 93¢ | $48 | 0x405c9f… |
| 06-09 22:24:42 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x76c008… |
| 06-09 22:24:42 | (anonymous) 0xc03d…ca87 | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $6 | 0x76c008… |
| 06-09 22:24:39 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x827e85… |
| 06-09 22:24:39 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x827e85… |
| 06-09 22:23:19 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x248106… |
| 06-09 22:23:19 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x248106… |
| 06-09 22:20:19 | Sugary-Peen 0x469c…309b | Yes | BUY | 3 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xfe8ee8… |
| 06-09 22:20:19 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xfe8ee8… |
| 06-09 22:20:19 | (anonymous) 0x8b3c…5513 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x1ab1df… |
| 06-09 22:20:19 | (anonymous) 0x5f42…e101 | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $6 | 0xfe8ee8… |
| 06-09 22:20:19 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x1ab1df… |
| 06-09 22:17:16 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 6 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xb90af0… |
| 06-09 22:17:16 | Sugary-Peen 0x469c…309b | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x8f8f32… |
| 06-09 22:17:16 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0x8f8f32… |
| 06-09 22:17:16 | Sugary-Peen 0x469c…309b | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xb90af0… |