Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$9,365,484
$335,460 in 24h
Trades
260,419
Unique wallets
20,519
Liquidity
$979,681
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-28 09:59
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.5¢
(top1%: 3% YES on $538.9K
vs crowd: 3% YES on $4.91M)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 84 | $24.0K | $1.67M | $1.65M |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 233 | $30.1K | $1.56M | $1.53M |
| 🐟 Fish | 2,151 | $76.4K | $884.7K | $808.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 18,051 | $38.9K | $621.9K | $583.1K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 33 | $16.1K | $522.8K | $506.7K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 148 | $12.1K | $1.01M | $995.0K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 189 | $11.7K | $120.2K | $108.5K |
| Median | 2,050 | $14.4K | $296.8K | $282.4K |
| Below median | 1,794 | $5.4K | $166.5K | $161.1K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 148 | $3.2K | $85.7K | $82.4K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 127 | $9.7K | $96.1K | $86.4K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 33 | $7.5K | $82.7K | $75.2K |
| unranked | 15,997 | $89.3K | $2.37M | $2.28M |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0xd8bf…44ea | Yes | +455,748 | $30,000 | $30,000 | 306 | 06-19 16:45 |
| Worn-Tanker 0xc97b…47e5 | No | +282,776 | $266,504 | $369,525 | 1,972 | 07-27 08:13 |
| Babyish-Workplace 0x396f…f2a8 | Yes | +245,714 | $16,155 | $16,155 | 1,502 | 07-25 01:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x785d…fab9 | No | +239,333 | $223,537 | $223,537 | 1 | 06-06 14:53 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | Yes | +166,666 | $9,000 | $9,000 | 48 | 07-01 07:25 |
| Vital-Browser 0xe749…f771 | No | +164,915 | $156,067 | $156,067 | 20 | 07-18 18:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x097d…e19b | No | +119,055 | $111,317 | $111,317 | 1 | 06-06 14:36 |
| Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | +110,441 | $104,476 | $104,476 | 1,091 | 07-15 11:53 |
| Accurate-Competitor 0x60c1…f605 | No | +81,029 | $77,241 | $77,241 | 6 | 07-23 00:40 |
| Discrete-Species 0xd8e0…c1a7 | No | +75,591 | $72,068 | $72,068 | 1,390 | 07-27 19:05 |
| Weak-Dinner 0xb1a2…372a | Yes | +69,538 | $2,730 | $2,730 | 2 | 07-17 18:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xbadf…aef3 | No | +62,343 | $58,291 | $58,291 | 1 | 06-06 13:42 |
| Devoted-Offramp 0x527b…eb08 | Yes | +60,120 | $4,000 | $4,000 | 4 | 05-31 20:10 |
| SILF 0x7d5d…91d8 | No | +57,279 | $53,851 | $89,367 | 652 | 07-23 04:39 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | No | +55,555 | $51,722 | $51,722 | 1 | 06-18 15:34 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +48,376 | $2,434 | $2,434 | 844 | 07-27 03:58 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +41,131 | $39,023 | $39,023 | 1,109 | 07-27 23:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x4a41…f4c4 | No | +39,445 | $31,464 | $415,854 | 270 | 07-27 08:13 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | +36,728 | $1,588 | $8,864 | 370 | 07-22 14:18 |
| Hidden-Contrast 0x4ee4…18ef | No | +33,517 | $32,210 | $32,210 | 2 | 07-14 08:31 |
| Exhausted-Tanktop 0x8349…c99d | No | +31,251 | $30,019 | $30,019 | 113 | 07-15 11:58 |
| Self-Reliant-Dad 0xba45…87f3 | Yes | +26,976 | $1,389 | $1,564 | 223 | 07-01 07:25 |
| Babyish-Examination 0xac29…36c7 | Yes | +21,609 | $756 | $756 | 325 | 07-12 09:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x9f7e…82ce | No | +20,817 | $19,418 | $19,418 | 450 | 06-19 16:45 |
| Limp-Tablecloth 0x94bd…6184 | No | +20,519 | $19,244 | $34,199 | 602 | 06-30 05:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8ff…c93b | No | +20,000 | $18,880 | $18,880 | 40 | 06-26 14:24 |
| (anonymous) 0xfca7…5e0a | No | +18,988 | $18,281 | $18,281 | 30 | 07-27 08:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xa8aa…dd0e | No | +17,327 | $16,689 | $16,689 | 8 | 07-08 11:27 |
| Wrathful-Treat 0xdc62…1eb3 | No | +17,313 | $16,182 | $16,182 | 301 | 07-20 23:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | +16,700 | $16,062 | $16,062 | 105 | 07-19 21:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xf949…3220 | No | +15,476 | $14,652 | $34,303 | 19 | 07-20 18:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c3e…502c | No | +14,012 | $13,246 | $13,246 | 193 | 06-30 16:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xb723…0065 | No | +14,007 | $13,460 | $13,460 | 3 | 07-20 12:27 |
| Bruised-Mango 0x6bcd…06b9 | No | +14,000 | $13,138 | $13,138 | 298 | 06-24 21:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c3e…502c | Yes | +13,999 | $781 | $781 | 409 | 06-30 03:41 |
| Bruised-Mango 0x6bcd…06b9 | Yes | +13,994 | $877 | $877 | 145 | 06-24 12:33 |
| Average-Jellybeans 0x3f2d…2adc | Yes | +13,328 | $509 | $16,555 | 7,904 | 07-28 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x720d…ea38 | No | +13,000 | $12,223 | $12,223 | 420 | 07-06 15:36 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +11,792 | $399 | $17,313 | 8,059 | 07-28 09:54 |
| Threadbare-Signal 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | +11,465 | $625 | $625 | 172 | 07-27 04:29 |
| Sick-Placement 0x0cba…92d3 | No | +11,118 | $10,400 | $10,400 | 2 | 06-21 16:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x856a…4ea2 | No | +10,910 | $10,452 | $10,452 | 92 | 07-21 20:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xdb45…b5d6 | Yes | +10,874 | $712 | $712 | 3 | 06-21 01:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xe4a1…e2bf | No | +10,734 | $10,000 | $10,000 | 1 | 06-09 14:06 |
| Spry-Netbook 0xa65c…32fb | Yes | +10,300 | $386 | $664 | 77 | 07-12 00:23 |
| Eatpraylove 0xc021…1fa8 | Yes | +10,000 | $380 | $380 | 152 | 07-26 00:07 |
| Rewarding-Subset 0x7399…46d6 | No | +9,000 | $8,633 | $8,633 | 3 | 07-22 12:38 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | +7,244 | $275 | $275 | 48 | 07-28 09:59 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 09:59:43 | Energetic-Tension 0x882a…b8de | Yes | SELL | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x2908d4… |
| 07-28 09:59:43 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x2908d4… |
| 07-28 09:54:49 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x00cb3d… |
| 07-28 09:54:49 | Energetic-Tension 0x882a…b8de | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x00cb3d… |
| 07-28 09:53:34 | (anonymous) 0xa29c…572a | Yes | BUY | 77 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x77735a… |
| 07-28 09:53:34 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 77 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x77735a… |
| 07-28 09:52:53 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 120 | 4¢ | $5 | 0xab7b5c… |
| 07-28 09:52:53 | Lumbering-Samovar 0x78c8…2f91 | Yes | SELL | 120 | 4¢ | $5 | 0xab7b5c… |
| 07-28 09:52:29 | (anonymous) 0xa29c…572a | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x30f30f… |
| 07-28 09:52:29 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x30f30f… |
| 07-28 09:49:29 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 120 | 4¢ | $5 | 0x367619… |
| 07-28 09:49:29 | Lumbering-Samovar 0x78c8…2f91 | Yes | BUY | 120 | 4¢ | $5 | 0x367619… |
| 07-28 09:48:02 | Prestigious-Faith 0xfd65…7179 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x192ca8… |
| 07-28 09:48:02 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x192ca8… |
| 07-28 09:45:58 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc16b16… |
| 07-28 09:45:58 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc16b16… |
| 07-28 09:45:47 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x58810c… |
| 07-28 09:45:47 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x58810c… |
| 07-28 09:43:58 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x547f2e… |
| 07-28 09:43:58 | Prestigious-Faith 0xfd65…7179 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x547f2e… |
| 07-28 09:42:14 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xad6db0… |
| 07-28 09:42:14 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xad6db0… |
| 07-28 09:41:58 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa8356c… |
| 07-28 09:41:58 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa8356c… |
| 07-28 09:40:44 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 8 | 96¢ | $8 | 0xe64006… |
| 07-28 09:40:44 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xe64006… |
| 07-28 09:38:28 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x89249a… |
| 07-28 09:38:28 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x89249a… |
| 07-28 09:38:20 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb750ad… |
| 07-28 09:38:20 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb750ad… |
| 07-28 09:37:58 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa5aede… |
| 07-28 09:37:58 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa5aede… |
| 07-28 09:37:50 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb4387c… |
| 07-28 09:37:50 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb4387c… |
| 07-28 09:35:50 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x87aaaf… |
| 07-28 09:35:50 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x87aaaf… |
| 07-28 09:35:41 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x51e0a0… |
| 07-28 09:35:41 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x51e0a0… |
| 07-28 09:34:23 | (anonymous) 0x7c0f…9f39 | Yes | SELL | 6,000 | 4¢ | $228 | 0x70895f… |
| 07-28 09:34:23 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 1,414 | 4¢ | $54 | 0x70895f… |
| 07-28 07:37:01 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0x410ec3… |
| 07-28 07:37:01 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x410ec3… |
| 07-28 07:34:13 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x326506… |
| 07-28 07:34:13 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x326506… |
| 07-28 07:34:00 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd445c1… |
| 07-28 07:34:00 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xd445c1… |
| 07-28 07:28:45 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x169aea… |
| 07-28 07:28:45 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x169aea… |
| 07-28 07:28:39 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x8a23ed… |
| 07-28 07:28:39 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x8a23ed… |
| 07-28 07:22:19 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 11 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x2d7411… |
| 07-28 07:22:19 | (anonymous) 0x9710…2672 | No | BUY | 11 | 96¢ | $11 | 0x2d7411… |
| 07-28 07:19:12 | (anonymous) 0x58a1…e37c | No | BUY | 15 | 96¢ | $14 | 0xf57bf8… |
| 07-28 07:19:12 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 15 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf57bf8… |
| 07-28 07:14:10 | Average-Jellybeans 0x3f2d…2adc | Yes | SELL | 423 | 4¢ | $16 | 0x73e4af… |
| 07-28 07:14:10 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 81 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x73e4af… |
| 07-28 07:14:10 | (anonymous) 0x7fd8…3d43 | No | SELL | 624 | 96¢ | $599 | 0x73e4af… |
| 07-28 07:14:10 | Sugary-Peen 0x469c…309b | Yes | SELL | 120 | 4¢ | $5 | 0x73e4af… |
| 07-28 07:13:15 | (anonymous) 0x7dde…03a1 | No | BUY | 97 | 96¢ | $94 | 0xef7475… |
| 07-28 07:13:15 | Average-Jellybeans 0x3f2d…2adc | Yes | SELL | 159 | 4¢ | $6 | 0xef7475… |
| 07-28 07:13:15 | Immediate-Geology 0x734c…1d86 | Yes | BUY | 256 | 4¢ | $10 | 0xef7475… |
| 07-28 07:12:28 | (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x64781c… |
| 07-28 07:12:28 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x64781c… |
| 07-28 07:12:28 | (anonymous) 0x7dde…03a1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x64781c… |
| 07-28 07:12:18 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd90b60… |
| 07-28 07:12:18 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xd90b60… |
| 07-28 07:12:16 | (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x2d1b0b… |
| 07-28 07:12:16 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x2d1b0b… |
| 07-28 07:12:10 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xdac069… |
| 07-28 07:12:10 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xdac069… |
| 07-28 07:09:45 | Bewitched-Disaster 0x24df…5849 | No | BUY | 18 | 96¢ | $17 | 0xf3b412… |
| 07-28 07:09:45 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 18 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf3b412… |
| 07-28 07:09:15 | (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x8854bf… |
| 07-28 07:09:15 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x8854bf… |
| 07-28 07:09:06 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb69ce4… |
| 07-28 07:09:06 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb69ce4… |
| 07-28 06:57:55 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xfeaa8a… |
| 07-28 06:57:55 | (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xfeaa8a… |
| 07-28 06:57:46 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x14aa9d… |
| 07-28 06:57:46 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x14aa9d… |
| 07-28 06:49:09 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 624 | 4¢ | $24 | 0x20e468… |
| 07-28 06:49:09 | (anonymous) 0x7fd8…3d43 | No | BUY | 624 | 96¢ | $600 | 0x20e468… |
| 07-28 06:44:55 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xfc7fe2… |
| 07-28 06:44:55 | (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xfc7fe2… |
| 07-28 06:44:49 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x559fb3… |
| 07-28 06:44:49 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x559fb3… |
| 07-28 06:44:24 | (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x411cf5… |
| 07-28 06:44:24 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x411cf5… |
| 07-28 06:44:15 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x228d06… |
| 07-28 06:44:15 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x228d06… |
| 07-28 06:37:10 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd648b7… |
| 07-28 06:37:10 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xd648b7… |
| 07-28 06:34:12 | (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x850667… |
| 07-28 06:34:12 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x850667… |
| 07-28 06:34:04 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x58e78d… |
| 07-28 06:34:04 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x58e78d… |
| 07-28 06:32:54 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc3c6c2… |
| 07-28 06:32:54 | (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc3c6c2… |
| 07-28 06:32:46 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc8b4ae… |
| 07-28 06:32:46 | (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc8b4ae… |