Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
open
Total volume
$4,046,527
$335,460 in 24h
Trades
101,284
Unique wallets
14,182
Liquidity
$979,681
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-16 04:18
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+4.1¢
(top1%: 8% YES on $34.9K
vs crowd: 4% YES on $1.98M)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 45 | $4.9K | $214.7K | $209.8K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 109 | $8.1K | $988.9K | $980.9K |
| 🐟 Fish | 1,041 | $36.9K | $289.1K | $252.2K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 12,987 | $31.7K | $409.8K | $378.0K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 26 | $2.8K | $32.0K | $29.2K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 66 | $5.9K | $47.3K | $41.4K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 71 | $6.2K | $61.8K | $55.6K |
| Median | 1,258 | $11.9K | $114.5K | $102.6K |
| Below median | 1,208 | $2.3K | $83.9K | $81.6K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 68 | $2.1K | $5.5K | $3.4K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 55 | $3.8K | $50.3K | $46.5K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 21 | $1.5K | $59.7K | $58.2K |
| unranked | 11,409 | $45.0K | $1.45M | $1.40M |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | +278,475 | $260,336 | $277,227 | 325 | 06-16 04:18 |
| Babyish-Workplace 0x396f…f2a8 | Yes | +243,256 | $16,044 | $16,044 | 1,499 | 06-13 12:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x785d…fab9 | No | +239,333 | $223,537 | $223,537 | 1 | 06-06 14:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x4a41…f4c4 | No | +239,208 | $223,659 | $223,659 | 1 | 06-06 14:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x097d…e19b | No | +119,055 | $111,317 | $111,317 | 1 | 06-06 14:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xbadf…aef3 | No | +62,343 | $58,291 | $58,291 | 1 | 06-06 13:42 |
| Devoted-Offramp 0x527b…eb08 | Yes | +60,120 | $4,000 | $4,000 | 4 | 05-31 20:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xd8bf…44ea | Yes | +37,836 | $2,270 | $2,270 | 298 | 06-12 14:12 |
| SILF 0x7d5d…91d8 | No | +32,379 | $30,242 | $30,242 | 236 | 06-01 19:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xfc00…0be0 | No | +20,308 | $19,001 | $19,001 | 327 | 06-14 11:16 |
| Wrathful-Treat 0xdc62…1eb3 | No | +16,181 | $15,116 | $15,116 | 289 | 06-16 00:33 |
| Worn-Tanker 0xc97b…47e5 | No | +15,603 | $14,581 | $14,581 | 123 | 06-09 03:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x9f7e…82ce | No | +13,645 | $12,699 | $12,699 | 424 | 06-10 03:07 |
| Accurate-Competitor 0x60c1…f605 | No | +13,241 | $12,381 | $12,381 | 1 | 06-01 13:07 |
| Broken-Dogwood 0x24c8…23e1 | No | +12,064 | $11,242 | $11,242 | 72 | 06-12 21:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xe4a1…e2bf | No | +10,734 | $10,000 | $10,000 | 1 | 06-09 14:06 |
| Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | +9,225 | $8,617 | $12,749 | 29 | 06-11 11:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xaad3…f49e | No | +8,236 | $7,691 | $10,642 | 33 | 05-30 17:42 |
| Limp-Tablecloth 0x94bd…6184 | No | +5,964 | $5,540 | $13,023 | 429 | 06-11 10:48 |
| Threadbare-Signal 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | +5,953 | $367 | $367 | 109 | 06-11 17:54 |
| Sick-Placement 0x0cba…92d3 | No | +5,360 | $5,000 | $5,000 | 1 | 06-08 18:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x64aa…f81e | No | +5,350 | $4,992 | $4,992 | 1 | 06-09 15:36 |
| Demanding-Rust 0xf933…52fb | No | +5,000 | $4,650 | $4,650 | 85 | 06-09 08:28 |
| Rich-Try 0xd5e3…e379 | No | +4,993 | $4,658 | $4,658 | 50 | 06-01 00:13 |
| Broken-Dogwood 0x24c8…23e1 | Yes | +4,417 | $280 | $280 | 94 | 06-11 11:08 |
| Heavenly-Cassava 0x753c…e3ad | No | +4,278 | $4,000 | $4,000 | 1 | 05-30 06:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc54…680f | No | +4,212 | $3,946 | $4,486 | 171 | 06-14 08:39 |
| Genuine-Segment 0xd34b…0004 | No | +3,995 | $3,710 | $3,710 | 94 | 06-10 00:05 |
| Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | +3,805 | $3,569 | $3,569 | 153 | 06-15 14:43 |
| Natural-Intensity 0x9cb9…7b80 | No | +3,500 | $3,268 | $3,268 | 3 | 06-12 08:12 |
| Subdued-Revenant 0xcf07…c770 | No | +3,417 | $3,183 | $3,183 | 41 | 06-08 15:08 |
| Wilted-Airfield-Diaphragm 0x6779…2ff6 | No | +3,308 | $3,100 | $3,100 | 3 | 06-16 03:06 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Camp 0x8afa…adb6 | No | +3,304 | $3,063 | $14,782 | 306 | 06-15 04:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xd5e8…871d | Yes | +3,235 | $220 | $220 | 1 | 06-07 08:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x01bc…dbe4 | Yes | +3,210 | $209 | $388 | 3 | 06-14 21:45 |
| Overjoyed-Scam 0xc5b5…9c30 | Yes | +3,175 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-04 11:14 |
| Attractive-Harpsichord 0x02ad…a1fc | Yes | +3,175 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-04 11:16 |
| Black-And-White-Plywood 0xef58…b722 | Yes | +3,109 | $193 | $1,040 | 84 | 06-08 09:45 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +3,081 | $202 | $202 | 145 | 06-13 17:23 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +3,005 | $2,805 | $2,805 | 148 | 06-13 14:24 |
| Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | Yes | +2,992 | $207 | $1,622 | 15 | 06-12 21:15 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +2,723 | $172 | $172 | 129 | 06-14 06:49 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +2,716 | $2,541 | $2,541 | 125 | 06-14 11:31 |
| Noted-Pathogenesis 0x6e85…1f81 | Yes | +2,620 | $187 | $483 | 84 | 06-07 05:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x108f…7937 | Yes | +2,493 | $161 | $161 | 107 | 06-14 02:56 |
| Trustworthy-Break 0x327c…86ef | Yes | +2,000 | $132 | $132 | 3 | 06-06 16:21 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 04:18:24 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x21373e… |
| 06-16 04:18:24 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x21373e… |
| 06-16 04:18:15 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x30d7b1… |
| 06-16 04:18:15 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x30d7b1… |
| 06-16 04:17:25 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xe43f90… |
| 06-16 04:17:25 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xe43f90… |
| 06-16 04:17:18 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x359b67… |
| 06-16 04:17:18 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x359b67… |
| 06-16 04:15:36 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xe0fa44… |
| 06-16 04:15:36 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xe0fa44… |
| 06-16 04:15:18 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x464378… |
| 06-16 04:15:18 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x464378… |
| 06-16 04:14:13 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x16e331… |
| 06-16 04:14:13 | (anonymous) 0x3304…906a | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x16e331… |
| 06-16 04:13:57 | (anonymous) 0x3304…906a | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x95dab5… |
| 06-16 04:13:57 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x95dab5… |
| 06-16 04:12:22 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7aff8a… |
| 06-16 04:12:22 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x7aff8a… |
| 06-16 04:12:15 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xc4a793… |
| 06-16 04:12:15 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xc4a793… |
| 06-16 04:10:54 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x728527… |
| 06-16 04:10:54 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x728527… |
| 06-16 04:10:49 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x6617a1… |
| 06-16 04:10:49 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x6617a1… |
| 06-16 04:10:42 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x476530… |
| 06-16 04:10:42 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x476530… |
| 06-16 04:10:37 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xf9a294… |
| 06-16 04:10:37 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xf9a294… |
| 06-16 04:05:42 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xf1d517… |
| 06-16 04:05:42 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xf1d517… |
| 06-16 04:05:31 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x02f2a1… |
| 06-16 04:05:31 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x02f2a1… |
| 06-16 04:04:03 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x5d3071… |
| 06-16 04:04:03 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x5d3071… |
| 06-16 04:03:55 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x75c753… |
| 06-16 04:03:55 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x75c753… |
| 06-16 04:01:37 | (anonymous) 0x2104…aeda | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xa72f48… |
| 06-16 04:01:37 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xa72f48… |
| 06-16 04:01:30 | (anonymous) 0x2104…aeda | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xe904ae… |
| 06-16 04:01:30 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xe904ae… |
| 06-16 03:54:52 | Husky-Effectiveness 0xbb96…d3a4 | No | BUY | 66 | 94¢ | $62 | 0xd5073e… |
| 06-16 03:54:52 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 66 | 94¢ | $62 | 0xd5073e… |
| 06-16 03:51:58 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xd7cfc1… |
| 06-16 03:51:58 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xd7cfc1… |
| 06-16 03:51:42 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xbdd2fd… |
| 06-16 03:51:42 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xbdd2fd… |
| 06-16 03:49:58 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xd5b599… |
| 06-16 03:49:58 | (anonymous) 0x2104…aeda | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xd5b599… |
| 06-16 03:49:49 | (anonymous) 0x2104…aeda | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xfd11f5… |
| 06-16 03:49:49 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xfd11f5… |
| 06-16 03:49:00 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x283e57… |
| 06-16 03:49:00 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x283e57… |
| 06-16 03:48:49 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x69adec… |
| 06-16 03:48:49 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x69adec… |
| 06-16 03:45:42 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xeb7b07… |
| 06-16 03:45:42 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xeb7b07… |
| 06-16 03:45:30 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x25ae6c… |
| 06-16 03:45:30 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x25ae6c… |
| 06-16 03:34:00 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 8 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x98f019… |
| 06-16 03:34:00 | (anonymous) 0xf48a…34e2 | No | SELL | 8 | 94¢ | $7 | 0x98f019… |
| 06-16 03:31:19 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 52 | 94¢ | $49 | 0x162dd0… |
| 06-16 03:31:19 | Whispered-Closure 0xcd60…a967 | No | BUY | 52 | 94¢ | $49 | 0x162dd0… |
| 06-16 03:25:21 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x1b1359… |
| 06-16 03:25:21 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x1b1359… |
| 06-16 03:25:12 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xfe7bd4… |
| 06-16 03:25:12 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xfe7bd4… |
| 06-16 03:23:30 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x9f1e90… |
| 06-16 03:23:30 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9f1e90… |
| 06-16 03:23:24 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x8a5c38… |
| 06-16 03:23:24 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x8a5c38… |
| 06-16 03:20:09 | Ready-Menu 0xe06b…8aa0 | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x6c3d0c… |
| 06-16 03:20:09 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x6c3d0c… |
| 06-16 03:17:37 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x69ef42… |
| 06-16 03:17:37 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x69ef42… |
| 06-16 03:17:28 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7464e9… |
| 06-16 03:17:28 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7464e9… |
| 06-16 03:16:37 | (anonymous) 0x8b3c…5513 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x1d73d0… |
| 06-16 03:16:37 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x1d73d0… |
| 06-16 03:16:30 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x61fcac… |
| 06-16 03:16:30 | (anonymous) 0x8b3c…5513 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x61fcac… |
| 06-16 03:15:03 | (anonymous) 0xc03d…ca87 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xdc8aec… |
| 06-16 03:15:03 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xdc8aec… |
| 06-16 03:14:39 | (anonymous) 0xc03d…ca87 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x96f72d… |
| 06-16 03:14:39 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x96f72d… |
| 06-16 03:14:03 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x4cb45f… |
| 06-16 03:14:03 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x4cb45f… |
| 06-16 03:13:45 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x4216e1… |
| 06-16 03:13:45 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x4216e1… |
| 06-16 03:11:12 | Prime-Mastoid 0xa9e6…0706 | No | SELL | 52 | 94¢ | $49 | 0x6045ee… |
| 06-16 03:11:12 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 52 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x6045ee… |
| 06-16 03:09:54 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x9fc1e1… |
| 06-16 03:09:54 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9fc1e1… |
| 06-16 03:09:42 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x1bb467… |
| 06-16 03:09:42 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x1bb467… |
| 06-16 03:06:16 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 2,130 | 94¢ | $2,000 | 0xcaaaca… |
| 06-16 03:06:16 | Wilted-Airfield-Diaphragm 0x6779…2ff6 | No | BUY | 2,130 | 94¢ | $2,000 | 0xcaaaca… |
| 06-16 03:04:19 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x6a657a… |
| 06-16 03:04:19 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x6a657a… |
| 06-16 03:04:12 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x4f760a… |
| 06-16 03:04:12 | (anonymous) 0x5712…09a9 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x4f760a… |