Competent-Tulip — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$169

Hit rate

94.0%

Resolved

6,092

Trades

33,872

lifetime

Volume

$16.8M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$497

Open exposure

$18.2K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-25 20:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 228 days

Categories

Other

90% 97% -$10,704

Crypto

5% 94% -$33,601

Politics

3% 85% +$767

Sports

2% 89% +$26,039

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 93 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	+11,400	$11,276	100¢	$11.4K	+$84	10-25 20:50
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+3,465	$3,406	98¢	$3.4K	-$14	10-20 22:18
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	No	+1,890	$1,873	99¢	$1.9K	+$5	10-23 13:35
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-1,200	-$1,233	98¢	$-1177	+$56	09-25 13:59
US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	+252	$246	98¢	$246	+$0	10-06 07:05
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027?	No	-100	-$95	93¢	$-93	+$2	08-04 08:30
Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027?	No	-53	-$49	90¢	$-48	+$0	07-24 11:18
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	+0	-$30	97¢	$0	+$30	09-09 16:31
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	+0	-$4	96¢	$0	+$4	09-29 21:23
china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932	No	+0	-$1	82¢	$0	+$1	08-20 14:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	280	$283.6K	168,186	117,975	+50,211	Yes	+$196	06-28 04:05
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	347	$266.1K	146,831	120,873	+25,958	Yes	+$392	05-12 23:06
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	326	$222.6K	117,667	109,943	+7,724	Yes	+$854	06-25 02:50
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1,201	$221.1K	114,844	116,044	-1,200	open	—	10-05 02:20
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	318	$210.0K	119,309	94,300	+25,009	Yes	-$338	06-13 02:55
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	131	$127.7K	70,465	70,465	+0	No	-$10,855	07-18 22:32
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	88	$102.4K	60,000	45,000	+15,000	Yes	+$2,286	06-20 01:44
spx opens up or down on march 3 2026	21	$87.4K	58,346	29,186	+29,160	Down	+$27	03-03 14:15
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	103	$81.8K	42,435	40,065	+2,370	Yes	+$63	06-26 00:38
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?	180	$74.6K	34,654	40,994	-6,339	No	+$25	07-01 03:41
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	130	$63.1K	34,194	29,983	+4,211	No	+$229	02-28 07:12
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	66	$62.6K	32,523	30,653	+1,870	Yes	+$67	02-28 07:47
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	179	$61.9K	34,286	30,486	+3,800	Yes	+$988	06-17 02:40
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	36	$60.3K	36,088	24,688	+11,400	open	—	10-25 20:50
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?	97	$59.7K	30,000	30,000	+0	No	+$75	07-09 21:44
spx opens up or down on march 10 2026	41	$59.4K	33,731	26,011	+7,720	Up	+$256	03-10 20:33
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	75	$58.2K	40,010	24,863	+15,147	Yes	+$3,288	06-23 01:58
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	29	$54.9K	32,884	22,154	+10,730	Yes	+$34	06-24 23:36
highest temperature in seoul on january 14 neg 4corbelow	18	$54.7K	35,926	18,800	+17,126	No	+$25	01-14 04:39
highest temperature in seoul on march 27 2026 6corbelow	31	$53.2K	53,369	0	+53,369	No	+$127	03-27 01:03
highest temperature in seoul on march 26 2026 7c	23	$52.8K	53,015	0	+53,015	No	+$212	03-26 00:14
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	158	$52.2K	41,000	17,000	+24,000	Yes	+$1,610	06-15 04:01
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	112	$51.9K	46,176	6,171	+40,005	Yes	+$257	06-27 04:48
nik up or down on june 16 2026	42	$49.5K	24,800	24,800	+0	Up	+$53	06-16 13:45
Knicks vs. Spurs	78	$49.2K	3,100	58,685	-55,585	Knicks	+$28,502	06-14 03:24
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1?	28	$47.3K	42,581	4,800	+37,781	No	+$90	06-01 13:32
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 11?	5	$46.8K	47,135	0	+47,135	Down	+$301	06-11 13:46
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	173	$46.8K	40,911	7,338	+33,574	Yes	-$585	06-17 06:10
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings	42	$45.6K	60,000	61,000	-1,000	Sunrisers Hyderabad	-$8,353	04-18 14:23
highest temperature in london on january 11 7c	10	$45.4K	45,449	0	+45,449	No	+$58	01-11 15:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 20:50:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$101	0x73241b…
10-25 12:51:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x0943ce…
10-25 10:40:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	243	100¢	$242	0xfea350…
10-23 13:35:42	StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xa3d146…
10-22 22:06:18	StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x44b8dc…
10-22 22:03:42	StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x03e19a…
10-22 17:45:44	StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	No	BUY	66	99¢	$66	0x656d41…
10-22 16:19:53	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	11,000	100¢	$10,945	0xab328b…
10-22 04:28:00	Spread: Warriors (-5.5)	Lakers	BUY	182	100¢	$182	0x5469bc…
10-21 19:29:02	StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x793f6d…
10-21 07:57:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	10,418	100¢	$10,376	0x2ffe44…
10-21 07:56:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x9e663c…
10-21 07:56:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x6c8965…
10-21 07:55:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x25936e…
10-21 07:38:53	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf1724b…
10-21 07:38:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xd6f815…
10-21 07:37:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xa7edc9…
10-21 07:37:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xf7f5e0…
10-21 07:36:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x3f2874…
10-21 06:51:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	405	100¢	$404	0x9617a4…
10-20 22:18:30	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0x99d1cf…
10-20 18:19:11	StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0x224001…
10-20 08:17:44	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	124	98¢	$121	0xce029f…
10-20 08:16:17	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	57	98¢	$56	0x342e61…
10-20 08:13:34	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x2b1e56…
10-20 08:10:23	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	106	98¢	$104	0x902a5e…
10-20 02:21:38	StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,812	99¢	$1,795	0x507840…
10-19 23:40:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xdf7ffd…
10-19 23:10:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0x8bb24d…
10-19 22:40:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xee7187…
10-19 21:55:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	971	100¢	$966	0x5bbd02…
10-19 17:31:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x56f611…
10-19 16:49:39	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,252	98¢	$1,230	0xbbf865…
10-18 15:41:18	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	1,500	99¢	$1,478	0x573abe…
10-18 14:07:29	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	948	99¢	$935	0xa80771…
10-16 21:42:03	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	813	98¢	$800	0x207faf…
10-16 14:14:19	StandX FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1,777	99¢	$1,761	0x8d609a…
10-15 13:29:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,980	0x8213d9…
10-15 07:47:55	standx fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	SELL	56	98¢	$55	0xd5210b…
10-15 07:28:35	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	BUY	190	97¢	$184	0xe7efba…
10-15 07:28:29	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf7783a…
10-15 07:27:10	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xed23c7…
10-15 07:19:29	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xcb2c4b…
10-15 07:15:07	standx fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xd04446…
10-15 07:07:16	standx fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x80c872…
10-15 07:06:56	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	BUY	438	94¢	$412	0xf65217…
10-15 06:26:08	standx fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0x8b295a…
10-15 06:24:55	will the us confirm that aliens exist by october 31 396	No	SELL	3,793	99¢	$3,752	0x80de70…
10-14 00:26:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x3cca55…
10-08 14:19:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	180	99¢	$178	0x4f0715…
10-07 09:51:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	3,738	99¢	$3,705	0x35357a…
10-07 09:22:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x87ea05…
10-07 09:19:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x5c19e8…
10-07 04:11:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	1,111	99¢	$1,101	0x72da22…
10-07 03:58:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8f8b1b…
10-07 02:28:50	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	1,355	98¢	$1,328	0xac0ce3…
10-07 02:24:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	10,015	99¢	$9,925	0x3792d0…
10-06 17:45:32	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x018622…
10-06 15:35:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	6,443	99¢	$6,372	0xda75c1…
10-06 12:57:48	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$36	0x5dd0b0…
10-06 07:05:12	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xdec737…
10-06 05:53:01	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xcd2317…
10-06 04:49:15	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x0ee882…
10-06 03:14:21	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x87b5e3…
10-06 02:24:36	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd44bb9…
10-06 02:18:19	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x6d77db…
10-06 02:11:22	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x9bf48d…
10-06 02:05:14	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,675	87¢	$1,460	0xaad814…
10-05 04:20:46	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x29f233…
10-05 04:07:22	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0xcb8587…
10-05 04:04:43	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xe85499…
10-05 02:29:37	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	112	98¢	$110	0x7389b3…
10-05 02:20:05	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$5	0xa1b9d3…
10-05 00:23:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 5?	Yes	SELL	258	0¢	$0	0x66d885…
10-05 00:22:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	252	1¢	$2	0xc9156f…
10-05 00:22:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	106	0¢	$0	0x2da54b…
10-03 01:50:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	2,500	99¢	$2,470	0xa9f1f4…
10-03 01:26:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x98d078…
10-03 00:58:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0x9ceaf2…
10-02 23:43:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	1,016	99¢	$1,003	0xf94a64…
10-02 14:12:11	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	76	98¢	$74	0x0d008d…
10-02 09:57:41	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb65b77…
10-02 09:57:11	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x0712b5…
10-02 09:56:39	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x97cf3d…
10-02 09:56:11	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x6fc1d1…
10-02 09:55:38	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xa5f4be…
10-02 08:28:17	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xbd3120…
10-02 05:22:57	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5f383f…
09-30 10:39:33	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	1,750	100¢	$1,748	0x1705ae…
09-29 21:23:23	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1,453	94¢	$1,373	0xacd37b…
09-29 20:43:27	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$10	0x83f863…
09-29 20:31:32	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	150	94¢	$142	0xfa7c48…
09-29 12:05:17	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	389	100¢	$388	0x081564…
09-29 12:04:50	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x1e3554…
09-29 11:52:21	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x753af8…
09-29 11:26:03	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x1ad9c1…
09-29 11:10:38	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x51864a…
09-29 10:39:06	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0fe500…
09-29 09:43:06	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	3,422	100¢	$3,419	0x8a6d7a…
09-29 09:38:09	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x050b34…