China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
open
Total volume
$950,947
$1,775 in 24h
Trades
34,544
Unique wallets
9,444
Liquidity
$32,100
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-09 15:22
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.2¢
(top1%: 8% YES on $12.7K
vs crowd: 8% YES on $504.4K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 24 | $1.1K | $22.6K | $21.5K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 47 | $1.7K | $101.4K | $99.6K |
| 🐟 Fish | 490 | $9.2K | $71.1K | $61.9K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 8,883 | $27.9K | $269.4K | $241.4K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 8 | $974 | $11.7K | $10.7K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 25 | $1.6K | $14.4K | $12.8K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 28 | $394 | $1.4K | $1.0K |
| Median | 1,342 | $6.0K | $62.6K | $56.6K |
| Below median | 863 | $4.3K | $40.4K | $36.2K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 15 | $148 | $391 | $243 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 24 | $113 | $8.1K | $8.0K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 11 | $679 | $18.8K | $18.1K |
| unranked | 7,128 | $25.8K | $306.6K | $280.7K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devoted-Offramp 0x527b…eb08 | Yes | +36,977 | $3,316 | $3,316 | 66 | 07-01 14:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +21,369 | $389 | $945 | 88 | 07-06 02:01 |
| Spanish-Priority 0x4004…c40b | No | +12,985 | $11,688 | $11,688 | 106 | 06-29 07:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x2481…9b79 | No | +11,111 | $10,444 | $10,444 | 1 | 07-06 05:03 |
| Motherly-Clone 0xe8d6…d5db | No | +10,664 | $9,742 | $9,742 | 15 | 06-29 21:21 |
| Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | +10,450 | $9,785 | $10,543 | 22 | 07-09 13:43 |
| Easy-Variation 0x43b4…ec9c | No | +10,000 | $9,400 | $9,400 | 2 | 07-06 05:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x6754…7487 | No | +9,215 | $8,583 | $8,583 | 15 | 07-06 05:03 |
| Front-Pruner 0xa41f…b397 | No | +3,842 | $3,571 | $3,571 | 2 | 07-01 14:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x64c7…14f3 | Yes | +3,286 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 07-06 20:41 |
| Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | +2,885 | $189 | $771 | 188 | 07-07 17:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x689f…b3dd | Yes | +2,606 | $214 | $214 | 3 | 07-07 16:04 |
| Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | Yes | +2,500 | $-425 | $873 | 11 | 07-06 20:41 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +2,466 | $2,340 | $2,340 | 5 | 07-06 05:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x2be6…8ae5 | No | +2,000 | $1,800 | $1,800 | 24 | 06-29 18:09 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +1,639 | $73 | $73 | 6 | 07-07 17:28 |
| Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | +1,500 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 07-06 01:59 |
| Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | +1,400 | $19 | $19 | 4 | 07-06 01:59 |
| Tattered-Strait 0x6326…01d6 | Yes | +1,254 | $96 | $96 | 2 | 07-06 04:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xbd13…a7a6 | No | +1,132 | $1,023 | $1,023 | 13 | 06-29 18:09 |
| Essential-Diarist 0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | +1,125 | $-1 | $41 | 11 | 07-06 14:01 |
| Threadbare-Signal 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | +1,111 | $78 | $78 | 11 | 05-31 18:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | +1,026 | $-47 | $247 | 36 | 07-07 16:56 |
| Immaculate-Hassock 0x84f8…0ff2 | No | +1,000 | $915 | $915 | 15 | 06-29 07:03 |
| Uncommon-Sibling 0xc040…beac | Yes | +926 | $86 | $86 | 3 | 06-24 07:45 |
| Occasional-Persimmon 0x98dc…9949 | Yes | +740 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 07-06 05:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x5446…4895 | No | +736 | $677 | $677 | 1 | 06-15 15:20 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +727 | $623 | $14,988 | 200 | 07-09 15:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf43…bdc4 | No | +611 | $545 | $545 | 1 | 06-11 14:12 |
| Only-Spirituality 0x5297…7b99 | Yes | +600 | $-72 | $1,017 | 98 | 07-06 05:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x2ee7…ce15 | No | +600 | $536 | $536 | 3 | 06-15 09:31 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +571 | $9 | $111 | 12 | 07-06 05:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x5c45…4cca | No | +540 | $502 | $1,022 | 12 | 07-01 13:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x108f…7937 | Yes | +537 | $48 | $48 | 5 | 06-10 09:13 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +533 | $-48 | $1,496 | 387 | 07-08 17:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xd35b…e5d1 | No | +531 | $499 | $499 | 1 | 07-02 20:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xe773…e1b0 | Yes | +476 | $40 | $40 | 4 | 07-02 08:46 |
| Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | +463 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 07-07 17:28 |
| Gleaming-Enemy 0x7171…7af9 | Yes | +441 | $27 | $98 | 17 | 07-01 14:22 |
| Woozy-Trillion 0xaf7c…70dd | Yes | +440 | $44 | $108 | 7 | 06-16 00:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x37af…00fe | Yes | +417 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 07-05 08:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x6431…3542 | No | +417 | $392 | $392 | 1 | 07-05 08:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x7162…f2b3 | Yes | +379 | $23 | $23 | 5 | 07-06 14:01 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +375 | $33 | $33 | 12 | 06-25 19:19 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +374 | $353 | $353 | 8 | 07-06 02:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc0a…6fc4 | No | +368 | $333 | $333 | 3 | 06-12 08:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | +356 | $323 | $323 | 37 | 06-15 19:23 |
| Aching-Grandma 0xd239…0230 | No | +351 | $312 | $570 | 7 | 06-14 09:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | +346 | $32 | $32 | 40 | 06-15 19:24 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb0b…b519 | No | +343 | $308 | $1,676 | 2 | 06-02 01:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x8895…466d | No | +326 | $300 | $300 | 1 | 06-02 09:56 |
| Confused-Dragonfruit 0x013b…c3dd | Yes | +300 | $-4 | $14 | 3 | 07-09 01:19 |
| Gregarious-Return 0x7c30…7673 | No | +300 | $267 | $267 | 3 | 06-15 09:31 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +291 | $-13 | $45 | 9 | 07-06 07:19 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 15:22:34 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x491940… |
| 07-09 15:22:34 | Wary-Instance 0x4eed…4e6f | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x491940… |
| 07-09 15:13:19 | Creative-Diction 0xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xf9b9aa… |
| 07-09 15:13:19 | (anonymous) 0xc249…ace0 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xf9b9aa… |
| 07-09 14:25:44 | Super-Stab 0x2377…4186 | No | BUY | 15 | 96¢ | $15 | 0x2b75d5… |
| 07-09 14:25:44 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 15 | 96¢ | $15 | 0x2b75d5… |
| 07-09 13:43:28 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x8b57d0… |
| 07-09 13:43:28 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x8b57d0… |
| 07-09 13:29:34 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x9fe2d1… |
| 07-09 13:29:34 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x9fe2d1… |
| 07-09 13:28:25 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x0c742b… |
| 07-09 13:28:25 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x0c742b… |
| 07-09 13:14:32 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xfa7055… |
| 07-09 13:14:32 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xfa7055… |
| 07-09 13:13:25 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x067e9f… |
| 07-09 13:13:25 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x067e9f… |
| 07-09 12:59:01 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x54eaa5… |
| 07-09 12:59:01 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x54eaa5… |
| 07-09 12:58:22 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xcf0e77… |
| 07-09 12:58:22 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0xcf0e77… |
| 07-09 12:34:40 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6c9b13… |
| 07-09 12:34:40 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6c9b13… |
| 07-09 12:34:10 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x43c2c3… |
| 07-09 12:34:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x43c2c3… |
| 07-09 12:19:38 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x0e63bc… |
| 07-09 12:19:38 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x0e63bc… |
| 07-09 12:19:08 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x228ca5… |
| 07-09 12:19:08 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x228ca5… |
| 07-09 05:57:56 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xdd4021… |
| 07-09 05:57:56 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xdd4021… |
| 07-09 05:57:41 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x760fee… |
| 07-09 05:57:41 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x760fee… |
| 07-09 05:42:55 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf79cde… |
| 07-09 05:42:55 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf79cde… |
| 07-09 05:42:40 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x4f6bf3… |
| 07-09 05:42:40 | Awful-Task 0x798b…e349 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x4f6bf3… |
| 07-09 03:43:40 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x992d69… |
| 07-09 03:43:40 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x992d69… |
| 07-09 03:42:41 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x568cfa… |
| 07-09 03:42:41 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x568cfa… |
| 07-09 03:28:11 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x011397… |
| 07-09 03:28:11 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x011397… |
| 07-09 03:27:40 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x568a95… |
| 07-09 03:27:40 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x568a95… |
| 07-09 03:09:11 | Crafty-Grandparent 0x599c…d493 | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x364250… |
| 07-09 03:09:11 | Creative-Diction 0xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x364250… |
| 07-09 01:20:52 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x2432a3… |
| 07-09 01:20:52 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x2432a3… |
| 07-09 01:19:43 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x6b090b… |
| 07-09 01:19:43 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 84 | 96¢ | $81 | 0x6b090b… |
| 07-09 01:19:43 | Confused-Dragonfruit 0x013b…c3dd | Yes | SELL | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x6b090b… |
| 07-09 01:19:43 | Awful-Task 0x798b…e349 | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x6b090b… |
| 07-09 01:18:53 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 16 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xe48f76… |
| 07-09 01:18:53 | Confused-Dragonfruit 0x013b…c3dd | Yes | SELL | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x4f865c… |
| 07-09 01:18:53 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 16 | 96¢ | $15 | 0xe48f76… |
| 07-09 01:18:53 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 100 | 95¢ | $95 | 0x4f865c… |
| 07-09 00:56:38 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6d5736… |
| 07-09 00:56:38 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6d5736… |
| 07-08 17:33:05 | (anonymous) 0x15fb…41de | No | SELL | 60 | 95¢ | $57 | 0xf61f37… |
| 07-08 17:33:05 | Awful-Task 0x798b…e349 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xf61f37… |
| 07-08 17:33:05 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 11 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xf61f37… |
| 07-08 17:33:05 | (anonymous) 0x4ac0…6471 | Yes | SELL | 38 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xf61f37… |
| 07-08 16:49:05 | Writhing-Horn-Chronograph 0x04fe…035e | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x882a44… |
| 07-08 16:49:05 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x882a44… |
| 07-08 11:23:25 | Crafty-Grandparent 0x599c…d493 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xbcf992… |
| 07-08 11:23:25 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xbcf992… |
| 07-08 09:42:53 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x8a7286… |
| 07-08 09:42:53 | Belated-Haversack 0x3b14…bc5e | No | BUY | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x8a7286… |
| 07-08 08:54:23 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | SELL | 14 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xd73101… |
| 07-08 08:54:23 | (anonymous) 0x4ac0…6471 | Yes | SELL | 543 | 5¢ | $25 | 0xd73101… |
| 07-08 08:54:23 | Authorized-Mayonnaise 0x5238…be0d | No | SELL | 557 | 95¢ | $531 | 0xd73101… |
| 07-08 06:45:16 | Creative-Diction 0xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | SELL | 74 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x126b95… |
| 07-08 06:45:16 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | SELL | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x126b95… |
| 07-08 06:45:16 | (anonymous) 0x8410…c718 | No | SELL | 200 | 95¢ | $191 | 0x126b95… |
| 07-08 06:45:16 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x126b95… |
| 07-08 06:45:16 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x126b95… |
| 07-08 05:38:41 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x962c29… |
| 07-08 05:38:41 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x962c29… |
| 07-08 05:38:41 | (anonymous) 0xe9e8…7b51 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x962c29… |
| 07-08 04:26:29 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xae666c… |
| 07-08 04:26:29 | (anonymous) 0xca84…27f4 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xae666c… |
| 07-08 04:26:22 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x5c4e1a… |
| 07-08 04:26:22 | (anonymous) 0xca84…27f4 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x5c4e1a… |
| 07-08 04:26:22 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0x5c4e1a… |
| 07-08 02:16:31 | Crazy-Pride 0x76f0…c3ab | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xdc00a5… |
| 07-08 02:16:31 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xdc00a5… |
| 07-07 23:17:22 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa656ff… |
| 07-07 23:17:22 | (anonymous) 0x4d20…8378 | Yes | SELL | 439 | 4¢ | $19 | 0xa656ff… |
| 07-07 23:17:22 | Creative-Diction 0xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | BUY | 299 | 4¢ | $13 | 0xa656ff… |
| 07-07 23:17:22 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa656ff… |
| 07-07 23:17:22 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | BUY | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa656ff… |
| 07-07 17:28:08 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 56 | 96¢ | $54 | 0x312863… |
| 07-07 17:28:08 | Prudent-Kill-Cytoplasm 0x4aea…faae | No | SELL | 27 | 94¢ | $26 | 0x312863… |
| 07-07 17:28:08 | Lucky-Corps 0xc78d…87eb | No | SELL | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x312863… |
| 07-07 17:28:08 | Fat-Admin 0x3a91…a770 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x312863… |
| 07-07 17:28:08 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x312863… |
| 07-07 17:28:08 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | BUY | 500 | 4¢ | $20 | 0x312863… |
| 07-07 17:28:08 | (anonymous) 0x79e7…f41f | Yes | BUY | 90 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x312863… |
| 07-07 17:28:08 | Delayed-Vanadyl 0x215a…254c | Yes | BUY | 312 | 4¢ | $12 | 0x312863… |
| 07-07 17:28:08 | Secondary-Maximum 0xa5c7…7e7b | No | SELL | 28 | 94¢ | $26 | 0x312863… |