Realized P&L
-$6.08K
Unrealized P&L
-$377
Hit rate
73.5%
Resolved
633
Trades
539,302
lifetime
Volume
$21.0M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$39
Open exposure
$43.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 18:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 41 days
Categories
Other
51%
59%
$-1,119
Politics
30%
62%
$-6,161
Crypto
12%
80%
+$1,344
Sports
5%
58%
$-192
Tech
2%
100%
+$44
Pop-Culture
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 7882 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | +5,143 | $4,686 | 96¢ | $4.9K | +$255 | 06-09 21:50 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | +2,687 | $2,571 | 97¢ | $2.6K | +$23 | 06-09 18:54 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +2,787 | $2,308 | 82¢ | $2.3K | $-36 | 06-09 19:26 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | +2,281 | $1,926 | 90¢ | $2.1K | +$138 | 06-09 15:13 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | +2,063 | $2,002 | 98¢ | $2.0K | +$18 | 06-09 21:14 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | +1,955 | $1,822 | 96¢ | $1.9K | +$47 | 06-09 16:16 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +2,035 | $1,656 | 82¢ | $1.7K | +$3 | 06-05 23:19 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | +2,246 | $1,516 | 74¢ | $1.7K | +$135 | 06-08 12:50 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,843 | $1,563 | 55¢ | $1.5K | $-13 | 06-09 20:05 | |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | No | +1,920 | $1,395 | 80¢ | $1.5K | +$135 | 06-09 22:00 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +1,538 | $1,482 | 99¢ | $1.5K | +$47 | 06-09 20:40 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Yes | +1,842 | $1,637 | 82¢ | $1.5K | $-126 | 06-09 14:11 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | Yes | +1,503 | $1,285 | 98¢ | $1.5K | +$195 | 06-09 12:48 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +1,887 | $1,340 | 72¢ | $1.3K | +$9 | 06-09 19:15 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Yes | +2,079 | $1,548 | 64¢ | $1.3K | $-228 | 06-06 21:36 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | +2,149 | $1,200 | 55¢ | $1.2K | $-29 | 06-08 13:18 | |
| Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | No | +1,169 | $1,120 | 99¢ | $1.2K | +$42 | 06-08 12:00 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | No | +1,268 | $1,139 | 90¢ | $1.1K | +$1 | 06-09 20:28 | |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | Yes | +1,120 | $1,059 | 98¢ | $1.1K | +$34 | 06-09 10:43 | |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | +1,090 | $1,038 | 96¢ | $1.0K | +$9 | 06-08 13:58 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | Yes | +1,075 | $1,033 | 94¢ | $1.0K | $-18 | 06-09 14:38 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Yes | +3,535 | $1,619 | 28¢ | $972 | $-647 | 06-08 04:34 | |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | -1,240 | $-911 | 76¢ | $-937 | $-25 | 06-04 01:33 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +959 | $923 | 98¢ | $935 | +$12 | 06-08 14:08 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | +2,307 | $1,114 | 38¢ | $888 | $-226 | 06-06 18:37 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | No | +875 | $789 | 94¢ | $823 | +$34 | 06-07 08:23 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | +827 | $803 | 99¢ | $817 | +$14 | 06-09 18:23 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | +1,313 | $749 | 62¢ | $807 | +$58 | 06-09 00:45 | |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | +1,112 | $659 | 72¢ | $806 | +$147 | 06-09 20:07 | |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | -800 | $-415 | 100¢ | $-799 | $-384 | 06-07 18:34 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 1,006 | $79.2K | 65,229 | 51,881 | +13,348 | open | — | 05-31 10:07 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 891 | $75.5K | 69,427 | 44,590 | +24,837 | open | — | 03-01 01:33 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 611 | $66.5K | 60,602 | 41,705 | +18,897 | open | — | 05-29 14:11 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 564 | $61.8K | 41,537 | 33,894 | +7,643 | open | — | 03-03 00:54 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | 469 | $58.1K | 34,247 | 25,227 | +9,020 | open | — | 05-30 11:45 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | 1,049 | $56.6K | 64,439 | 41,400 | +23,039 | open | — | 03-01 00:00 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 619 | $54.9K | 35,168 | 31,329 | +3,839 | open | — | 01-31 20:35 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971 | 1,202 | $52.3K | 51,380 | 35,813 | +15,567 | open | — | 03-30 17:24 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 776 | $51.6K | 42,537 | 31,465 | +11,072 | open | — | 03-27 20:02 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 483 | $51.3K | 36,676 | 29,888 | +6,788 | open | — | 06-01 06:21 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552 | 1,175 | $47.6K | 56,028 | 32,600 | +23,428 | open | — | 03-30 23:23 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 353 | $45.9K | 28,176 | 23,003 | +5,173 | open | — | 04-08 00:02 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 550 | $45.8K | 31,371 | 24,877 | +6,494 | open | — | 04-27 14:37 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 628 | $43.5K | 34,468 | 29,190 | +5,278 | open | — | 03-31 23:12 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | 456 | $42.1K | 36,724 | 23,006 | +13,718 | open | — | 05-30 19:26 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | 703 | $41.6K | 44,849 | 32,268 | +12,581 | open | — | 04-21 15:23 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | 985 | $40.6K | 37,098 | 27,694 | +9,404 | open | — | 01-31 00:34 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597 | 812 | $40.5K | 39,101 | 26,540 | +12,561 | open | — | 03-30 14:59 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 862 | $40.0K | 34,507 | 29,507 | +5,000 | open | — | 04-28 10:46 |
| will the us invade iran by march 31 | 717 | $39.7K | 47,083 | 32,185 | +14,898 | open | — | 03-31 19:37 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881 | 868 | $39.0K | 46,205 | 30,228 | +15,977 | open | — | 03-30 15:56 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 757 | $39.0K | 37,066 | 29,393 | +7,673 | open | — | 05-01 01:31 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 335 | $38.4K | 23,192 | 18,059 | +5,133 | Yes | $-4,565 | 05-07 23:33 |
| will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 803 | $38.3K | 46,412 | 31,150 | +15,262 | open | — | 01-18 02:29 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | 401 | $37.9K | 27,351 | 21,020 | +6,331 | open | — | 04-30 21:55 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 465 | $37.5K | 27,203 | 24,883 | +2,319 | open | — | 04-07 17:10 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | 340 | $36.7K | 28,479 | 23,354 | +5,125 | open | — | 05-31 18:19 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 30 | 536 | $35.2K | 32,827 | 26,170 | +6,657 | open | — | 04-07 13:18 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982 | 706 | $35.2K | 36,318 | 26,993 | +9,325 | open | — | 04-16 01:35 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 528 | $35.2K | 30,153 | 24,065 | +6,088 | open | — | 02-28 03:52 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 865 | $713.6K | 10,422 | 06-09 08:04 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 801 | $2.89M | 240,049 | 06-01 05:20 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 772 | $165.1K | 47,947 | 06-09 21:44 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | 737 | $3.23M | 49,080 | 06-09 16:04 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 718 | $109.2M | 192,094 | 06-09 22:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xca8f…d963 | 709 | $373.9K | 170,983 | 04-26 14:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | 709 | $80.4K | 57,450 | 06-09 09:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2 | 641 | $975.0K | 93,176 | 03-31 14:53 |