Known-Use — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$333.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$16.4K

Hit rate

72.8%

Resolved

77,255

Trades

1,723,828

lifetime

Volume

$61.5M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$173.4K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 07:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 300 days

Categories

Other

56% 66% -$212,807

Politics

29% 60% -$112,585

Sports

7% 70% +$2,950

Crypto

6% 77% -$4,447

Tech

2% 61% -$5,261

Pop-Culture

0% 60% -$1,050

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 9899 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+14,785	$9,812	96¢	$14.2K	+$4,425	10-27 02:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+15,765	$12,191	82¢	$12.8K	+$658	10-26 23:38
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+18,513	$9,244	54¢	$10.0K	+$706	10-26 22:55
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+10,041	$3,903	98¢	$9.9K	+$5,966	10-24 04:22
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+21,153	$10,857	46¢	$9.8K	-$1,074	10-26 20:59
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	-7,816	-$1,296	97¢	$-7570	-$6,274	10-16 11:47
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+7,777	$5,537	90¢	$7.0K	+$1,462	10-27 07:57
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+7,096	$4,639	86¢	$6.1K	+$1,428	10-25 22:29
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+7,821	$4,960	72¢	$5.7K	+$711	10-26 21:55
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+6,504	$4,681	82¢	$5.3K	+$621	10-12 17:38
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+5,595	$4,120	92¢	$5.2K	+$1,055	10-27 06:18
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+5,817	$5,449	86¢	$5.0K	-$455	10-27 03:34
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	+6,402	$5,203	78¢	$5.0K	-$241	10-27 05:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+5,255	$4,500	94¢	$4.9K	+$413	10-27 04:25
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	+4,864	$3,763	98¢	$4.8K	+$1,004	10-23 20:01
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+4,756	$4,670	99¢	$4.7K	+$44	08-17 15:03
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	No	+4,866	$4,136	97¢	$4.7K	+$573	10-27 08:00
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+7,550	$4,147	62¢	$4.7K	+$504	10-25 18:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+5,470	$3,352	84¢	$4.6K	+$1,215	10-24 23:39
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+4,433	$3,797	94¢	$4.2K	+$354	10-27 07:18
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+5,398	$4,339	76¢	$4.1K	-$209	10-26 22:35
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+3,976	$3,888	99¢	$3.9K	+$33	08-22 03:02
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+4,743	$3,636	82¢	$3.9K	+$253	10-26 22:47
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	+3,880	$3,574	100¢	$3.9K	+$302	09-13 13:13
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+4,443	$3,290	86¢	$3.8K	+$509	10-25 19:39
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+3,640	$3,541	99¢	$3.6K	+$75	10-07 13:03
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+9,397	$4,253	38¢	$3.6K	-$644	10-26 21:34
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+3,929	$1,975	92¢	$3.6K	+$1,620	10-24 16:25
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+3,628	$3,444	98¢	$3.6K	+$126	08-21 17:37
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+3,746	$2,252	94¢	$3.5K	+$1,250	10-27 08:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1,309	$219.6K	171,470	139,534	+31,936	open	—	10-26 23:38
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2,702	$147.8K	124,657	117,583	+7,074	No	+$9,310	10-26 17:04
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2,393	$138.0K	154,366	116,685	+37,681	Yes	-$17,862	10-26 17:00
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	662	$121.5K	82,686	72,958	+9,729	open	—	10-23 20:01
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1,696	$117.2K	69,547	74,635	-5,088	No	+$598	10-04 21:45
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	731	$113.1K	78,659	71,257	+7,402	open	—	10-27 08:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	562	$111.5K	73,667	63,427	+10,240	Yes	+$374	09-28 02:09
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1,830	$102.4K	71,241	76,459	-5,218	No	+$3,097	10-26 16:58
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1,380	$100.1K	94,456	80,645	+13,811	No	+$2,249	10-25 02:52
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	788	$97.8K	94,969	72,072	+22,896	Yes	-$4,749	09-16 18:00
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	1,208	$95.2K	96,917	67,142	+29,776	open	—	10-27 02:29
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1,652	$92.9K	108,641	68,975	+39,666	open	—	10-26 22:55
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	862	$92.7K	73,310	56,216	+17,094	Yes	-$3,518	10-04 23:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	850	$90.0K	64,695	58,592	+6,103	Yes	+$522	07-29 16:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	722	$81.4K	75,615	67,256	+8,359	No	+$321	09-16 18:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1,019	$81.1K	66,881	52,246	+14,635	No	+$173	05-31 10:07
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	443	$80.7K	60,304	51,518	+8,786	open	—	10-27 06:18
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	691	$79.0K	69,114	53,511	+15,603	Yes	+$445	08-31 16:19
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	785	$78.0K	64,612	50,420	+14,192	open	—	10-25 22:29
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	891	$75.5K	69,427	44,590	+24,837	Yes	-$4,160	03-01 01:33
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	865	$72.3K	52,369	43,635	+8,734	No	+$542	06-30 22:08
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	425	$70.7K	41,558	39,280	+2,278	open	—	10-27 03:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	760	$69.5K	60,922	52,211	+8,711	No	-$182	06-29 09:52
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	240	$69.2K	39,671	39,671	+0	open	—	10-23 00:19
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	583	$68.8K	53,561	44,559	+9,002	No	+$4	09-01 03:26
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	640	$68.4K	61,402	43,229	+18,173	No	+$795	05-29 14:11
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	668	$68.1K	55,528	46,015	+9,514	No	+$1,164	06-21 21:52
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	987	$67.4K	58,445	45,213	+13,232	No	+$1,826	09-21 09:06
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	772	$66.8K	56,202	45,456	+10,746	No	+$116	07-31 21:39
Fed rate hike in 2026?	576	$66.5K	70,244	55,783	+14,461	Yes	-$732	09-16 15:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 08:06:06	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	108	86¢	$93	0xa61446…
10-27 08:06:06	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	30	13¢	$4	0xa61446…
10-27 08:06:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-07 House election by 75%-80%?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x646e47…
10-27 08:05:59	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-01 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x880ccd…
10-27 08:05:36	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 60%-65%?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x1879e6…
10-27 08:05:35	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$1	0xe35980…
10-27 08:05:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 60%-65%?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x9c8230…
10-27 08:05:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 60%-65%?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x9017a8…
10-27 08:05:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 60%-65%?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x5d06ed…
10-27 08:05:14	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	81	3¢	$2	0xb450fc…
10-27 08:04:59	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0xf3ff57…
10-27 08:04:59	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	38	74¢	$28	0x5ac2ce…
10-27 08:04:59	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	21	74¢	$16	0x481376…
10-27 08:04:57	Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x27aac1…
10-27 08:04:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xfc7916…
10-27 08:04:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-01 House election by 55%-60%?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0xe35096…
10-27 08:04:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-01 House election by 55%-60%?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x733761…
10-27 08:04:36	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-01 House election by 75% or more?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0xb0838d…
10-27 08:04:36	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-01 House election by 75% or more?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x4a7d04…
10-27 08:04:17	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xfbc879…
10-27 08:03:27	Will the Democrats win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	26¢	$6	0xdd5e41…
10-27 08:03:23	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-02 House election by 45% or more?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x4eb8d0…
10-27 08:03:06	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	16	92¢	$15	0xc7cc10…
10-27 08:03:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	518	93¢	$482	0x1b6a5e…
10-27 08:03:00	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0xa4dcae…
10-27 08:02:54	Will BYU Cougars Win the 2026 Big 12 Championship?	No	SELL	7	79¢	$5	0x23aa9a…
10-27 08:02:08	Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Michigan and Maine?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x46156e…
10-27 08:02:06	Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	39¢	$7	0x0e0fc8…
10-27 08:01:53	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0x8e4778…
10-27 08:01:51	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat?	Yes	SELL	80	15¢	$12	0xfc9127…
10-27 08:01:51	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	No	SELL	35	59¢	$21	0x6d0255…
10-27 08:01:51	Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat?	No	SELL	15	16¢	$2	0x50424e…
10-27 08:01:51	Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat?	Yes	BUY	3	84¢	$2	0x50424e…
10-27 08:01:30	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 85% or more?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0xadd2ca…
10-27 08:01:27	Will Republic of Ireland win 2026-27 Nations League Group B3?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xbe918a…
10-27 08:01:14	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	60	69¢	$41	0xfffe79…
10-27 08:00:41	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	766	94¢	$720	0xbce101…
10-27 08:00:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ND-AL House election by 5%-15%?	Yes	SELL	79	2¢	$1	0xf7d04b…
10-27 08:00:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 27?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x4d7da0…
10-27 08:00:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	11	44¢	$5	0x15d6c3…
10-27 08:00:14	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?	Yes	SELL	39	22¢	$9	0x530b6d…
10-27 08:00:09	Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xa947bb…
10-27 08:00:05	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	14	62¢	$8	0x1baa23…
10-27 08:00:03	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xe08a0e…
10-27 08:00:03	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	12	62¢	$8	0xa7490b…
10-27 07:59:29	Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?	No	SELL	11	58¢	$7	0x9fffee…
10-27 07:59:24	Will Christopher McVey win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x3d470a…
10-27 07:59:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election by 60%-65%?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x95ac02…
10-27 07:58:50	Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x79a351…
10-27 07:58:47	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0xf5c896…
10-27 07:58:38	Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 1%?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xc6ce0a…
10-27 07:58:33	Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0x1903e1…
10-27 07:58:03	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 5°C on October 27?	No	SELL	52	99¢	$52	0x0715e0…
10-27 07:57:41	Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	19¢	$2	0xf8351e…
10-27 07:57:35	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0x4c8f3c…
10-27 07:57:32	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-15 House election by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	60	82¢	$49	0xa7def1…
10-27 07:57:14	Will SpaceXAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x596c4f…
10-27 07:57:11	Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	60¢	$20	0x357c3c…
10-27 07:56:56	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	25	56¢	$14	0x98b6f1…
10-27 07:56:06	Will SpaceXAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0xf186f7…
10-27 07:55:59	Amphenol (APH) Q3 organic sales growth 24% to 28%?	Yes	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0xa08d09…
10-27 07:55:59	Amphenol (APH) Q3 organic sales growth 24% to 28%?	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0x46ff09…
10-27 07:55:45	Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	61¢	$4	0x7ee704…
10-27 07:55:42	Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 5°C on October 27?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x6f40e8…
10-27 07:55:36	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KS-04 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	29	23¢	$7	0x5634cb…
10-27 07:55:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	103	68¢	$70	0xfd4209…
10-27 07:55:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x200a6a…
10-27 07:55:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	182	33¢	$60	0x4908c4…
10-27 07:55:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	208	67¢	$139	0x4908c4…
10-27 07:55:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$3	0x697564…
10-27 07:55:11	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xa22264…
10-27 07:54:57	Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xcd950a…
10-27 07:54:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-01 House election by 9%-12%?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xc652eb…
10-27 07:54:24	Will Anthropic be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0xf29f6a…
10-27 07:54:21	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-26 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	83	77¢	$64	0xaee6e9…
10-27 07:54:14	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x9e8eed…
10-27 07:54:12	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	318	89¢	$283	0x69a61f…
10-27 07:54:12	Will RZP-Zehut win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0x5e02d7…
10-27 07:54:11	Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x25df26…
10-27 07:53:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0xa612fc…
10-27 07:53:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0xa612fc…
10-27 07:53:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xefd242…
10-27 07:53:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	89	44¢	$39	0x78d8e2…
10-27 07:53:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	261	44¢	$115	0x730564…
10-27 07:53:23	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?	No	BUY	60	76¢	$46	0x45cd71…
10-27 07:53:14	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?	No	BUY	24	76¢	$18	0xd9f258…
10-27 07:53:14	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?	No	BUY	61	76¢	$46	0x043e1c…
10-27 07:53:03	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xb74312…
10-27 07:53:03	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	177	96¢	$171	0xb74312…
10-27 07:52:38	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xd4d68a…
10-27 07:52:38	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x476c9c…
10-27 07:52:23	Will Eitan Ginzburg be the next Speaker of the Knesset?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x8e160e…
10-27 07:52:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-05 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x9cd195…
10-27 07:51:50	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	302	87¢	$262	0x73e9c4…
10-27 07:51:50	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0x73e9c4…
10-27 07:51:50	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	31	14¢	$4	0x4fa337…
10-27 07:51:11	Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0x2ce446…
10-27 07:51:09	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	75	88¢	$66	0xc8a6b6…
10-27 07:51:06	Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x79b8d0…
10-27 07:51:05	Will the Republican Party win the IA-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	166	14¢	$23	0x60a3f9…