Realized P&L
-$6.08K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.96K
Hit rate
73.5%
Resolved
634
Trades
632,093
lifetime
Volume
$25.9M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$41
Open exposure
$71.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 12:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 41 days
Categories
Other
50%
59%
$-1,119
Politics
29%
62%
$-6,161
Crypto
11%
79%
+$1,343
Sports
7%
58%
$-192
Tech
2%
100%
+$44
Pop-Culture
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 2977 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +8,189 | $6,489 | 72¢ | $5.9K | $-552 | 07-21 11:58 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +4,199 | $4,076 | 96¢ | $4.0K | $-26 | 07-21 11:24 | |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | +4,354 | $3,980 | 93¢ | $4.0K | +$68 | 07-21 11:17 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | No | +5,485 | $4,169 | 72¢ | $4.0K | $-192 | 07-21 16:39 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | +5,470 | $3,121 | 66¢ | $3.6K | +$517 | 07-20 13:45 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | +5,456 | $2,915 | 62¢ | $3.4K | +$441 | 07-21 10:38 | |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | No | +6,059 | $3,407 | 52¢ | $3.2K | $-226 | 07-21 15:12 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | No | +3,224 | $2,764 | 89¢ | $2.9K | +$98 | 07-15 12:32 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | +3,190 | $2,150 | 82¢ | $2.6K | +$481 | 07-17 15:28 | |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | +5,279 | $2,252 | 48¢ | $2.5K | +$255 | 07-21 15:12 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | +3,039 | $2,052 | 78¢ | $2.4K | +$334 | 06-26 06:10 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | +2,558 | $2,050 | 88¢ | $2.2K | +$188 | 07-21 12:49 | |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +2,522 | $2,277 | 89¢ | $2.2K | $-42 | 07-21 00:09 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | +2,190 | $2,070 | 98¢ | $2.1K | +$69 | 07-19 22:28 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +2,329 | $2,051 | 90¢ | $2.1K | +$34 | 07-21 14:41 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | +5,159 | $2,463 | 38¢ | $2.0K | $-477 | 07-21 11:12 | |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | Yes | +2,560 | $1,908 | 72¢ | $1.8K | $-78 | 07-20 20:36 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +2,446 | $1,810 | 74¢ | $1.8K | +$12 | 07-17 13:13 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | +5,422 | $2,530 | 34¢ | $1.8K | $-714 | 07-16 01:04 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | +6,481 | $989 | 28¢ | $1.8K | +$794 | 07-20 16:45 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | No | +3,489 | $2,138 | 50¢ | $1.8K | $-376 | 07-20 16:23 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,269 | $1,540 | 54¢ | $1.7K | +$209 | 07-21 09:54 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +1,718 | $1,574 | 95¢ | $1.6K | +$59 | 07-14 01:56 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +1,656 | $1,500 | 92¢ | $1.5K | +$32 | 07-20 21:32 | |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | +1,872 | $884 | 80¢ | $1.5K | +$623 | 07-21 08:02 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +1,473 | $1,331 | 94¢ | $1.4K | +$61 | 07-20 08:34 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | +1,678 | $654 | 82¢ | $1.4K | +$722 | 07-21 05:16 | |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,970 | $968 | 45¢ | $1.3K | +$368 | 07-21 16:47 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | +1,501 | $1,286 | 88¢ | $1.3K | +$42 | 07-19 10:05 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,984 | $1,042 | 64¢ | $1.3K | +$238 | 07-17 22:32 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 1,006 | $79.2K | 65,229 | 51,881 | +13,348 | open | — | 05-31 10:07 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 891 | $75.5K | 69,427 | 44,590 | +24,837 | open | — | 03-01 01:33 |
| israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026 | 817 | $69.5K | 48,217 | 42,046 | +6,171 | open | — | 06-30 22:08 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 611 | $66.5K | 60,602 | 41,705 | +18,897 | open | — | 05-29 14:11 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 564 | $61.8K | 41,537 | 33,894 | +7,643 | open | — | 03-03 00:54 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | 469 | $58.1K | 34,247 | 25,227 | +9,020 | open | — | 05-30 11:45 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | 1,049 | $56.6K | 64,439 | 41,400 | +23,039 | open | — | 03-01 00:00 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 663 | $55.7K | 42,045 | 33,132 | +8,913 | open | — | 06-23 05:22 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 619 | $54.9K | 35,168 | 31,329 | +3,839 | open | — | 01-31 20:35 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971 | 1,202 | $52.3K | 51,380 | 35,813 | +15,567 | open | — | 03-30 17:24 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 776 | $51.6K | 42,537 | 31,465 | +11,072 | open | — | 03-27 20:02 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 415 | $51.6K | 47,333 | 33,168 | +14,165 | open | — | 07-21 11:58 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 483 | $51.3K | 36,676 | 29,888 | +6,788 | open | — | 06-01 06:21 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552 | 1,175 | $47.6K | 56,028 | 32,600 | +23,428 | open | — | 03-30 23:23 |
| mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155 | 463 | $46.8K | 37,530 | 31,784 | +5,746 | open | — | 07-14 14:12 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 353 | $45.9K | 28,176 | 23,003 | +5,173 | open | — | 04-08 00:02 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 550 | $45.8K | 31,371 | 24,877 | +6,494 | open | — | 04-27 14:37 |
| mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659 | 623 | $44.9K | 38,573 | 32,104 | +6,469 | open | — | 07-20 04:58 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 628 | $43.5K | 34,468 | 29,190 | +5,278 | open | — | 03-31 23:12 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | 456 | $42.1K | 36,724 | 23,006 | +13,718 | open | — | 05-30 19:26 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | 703 | $41.6K | 44,849 | 32,268 | +12,581 | open | — | 04-21 15:23 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | 985 | $40.6K | 37,098 | 27,694 | +9,404 | open | — | 01-31 00:34 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597 | 812 | $40.5K | 39,101 | 26,540 | +12,561 | open | — | 03-30 14:59 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 862 | $40.0K | 34,507 | 29,507 | +5,000 | open | — | 04-28 10:46 |
| will the us invade iran by march 31 | 717 | $39.7K | 47,083 | 32,185 | +14,898 | open | — | 03-31 19:37 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881 | 868 | $39.0K | 46,205 | 30,228 | +15,977 | open | — | 03-30 15:56 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 757 | $39.0K | 37,066 | 29,393 | +7,673 | open | — | 05-01 01:31 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 335 | $38.4K | 23,192 | 18,059 | +5,133 | Yes | $-4,565 | 05-07 23:33 |
| will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 803 | $38.3K | 46,412 | 31,150 | +15,262 | open | — | 01-18 02:29 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | 401 | $37.9K | 27,351 | 21,020 | +6,331 | open | — | 04-30 21:55 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||