Known-Use — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$209.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$21.0K

Hit rate

66.7%

Resolved (90d)

30,510

Trades (90d)

584,498

1,688,550 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$17.8M

$60.4M lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$162.3K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 13:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 304 days

Categories

Other

56% 66% -$220,368

Politics

29% 60% -$112,976

Sports

7% 69% -$5,057

Crypto

6% 77% -$5,134

Tech

2% 61% -$5,244

Pop-Culture

0% 60% -$1,050

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 9899 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+14,585	$9,616	97¢	$14.1K	+$4,516	10-29 17:46
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+20,131	$10,142	68¢	$13.6K	+$3,446	10-30 02:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+15,235	$11,744	82¢	$12.6K	+$825	10-30 20:57
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+10,041	$3,903	98¢	$9.9K	+$5,986	10-24 04:22
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+7,533	$4,993	84¢	$6.4K	+$1,373	10-31 09:01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+6,736	$4,587	92¢	$6.2K	+$1,577	10-27 19:29
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+18,131	$9,114	32¢	$5.9K	-$3,221	10-30 23:47
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+6,504	$4,681	86¢	$5.6K	+$946	10-12 17:38
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+6,407	$5,905	82¢	$5.2K	-$667	10-31 11:35
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	+6,402	$5,203	78¢	$5.0K	-$241	10-27 05:54
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	+4,864	$3,763	100¢	$4.9K	+$1,089	10-23 20:01
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+4,756	$4,670	99¢	$4.7K	+$46	08-17 15:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+5,470	$3,352	86¢	$4.7K	+$1,324	10-24 23:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+4,415	$3,015	98¢	$4.3K	+$1,290	10-31 11:52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+5,780	$4,223	72¢	$4.2K	-$32	10-30 18:01
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+5,336	$4,293	74¢	$4.0K	-$339	10-31 10:44
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+3,976	$3,888	99¢	$3.9K	+$37	08-22 03:02
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	+3,880	$3,574	100¢	$3.9K	+$302	09-13 13:13
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+6,192	$3,312	62¢	$3.9K	+$539	10-30 19:05
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	+4,706	$3,681	79¢	$3.7K	+$32	10-31 11:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+4,061	$2,528	91¢	$3.7K	+$1,168	10-31 13:27
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	Yes	+7,309	$4,056	50¢	$3.7K	-$365	10-29 22:42
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+4,597	$3,871	79¢	$3.6K	-$252	10-20 12:23
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+3,640	$3,541	99¢	$3.6K	+$75	10-07 13:03
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+3,929	$1,975	92¢	$3.6K	+$1,620	10-24 16:25
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+3,628	$3,444	98¢	$3.6K	+$124	08-21 17:37
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+9,397	$4,253	38¢	$3.6K	-$701	10-26 21:34
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	+4,931	$3,484	72¢	$3.5K	+$41	10-31 12:31
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+4,110	$2,977	86¢	$3.5K	+$537	10-30 13:55
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,602	$3,520	96¢	$3.5K	-$48	10-27 06:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1,317	$220.5K	171,970	140,314	+31,656	open	—	10-30 20:57
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2,702	$147.8K	124,657	117,583	+7,074	No	+$9,310	10-26 17:04
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2,393	$138.0K	154,366	116,685	+37,681	Yes	-$17,862	10-26 17:00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	814	$123.2K	83,690	76,825	+6,865	open	—	10-30 23:27
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	662	$121.5K	82,686	72,958	+9,729	open	—	10-23 20:01
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1,696	$117.2K	69,547	74,635	-5,088	No	+$598	10-04 21:45
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	562	$111.5K	73,667	63,427	+10,240	Yes	+$374	09-28 02:09
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1,830	$102.4K	71,241	76,459	-5,218	No	+$3,097	10-26 16:58
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1,380	$100.1K	94,456	80,645	+13,811	No	+$2,249	10-25 02:52
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	1,232	$98.3K	98,406	68,831	+29,575	open	—	10-29 17:46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	788	$97.8K	94,969	72,072	+22,896	Yes	-$4,749	09-16 18:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	570	$97.0K	70,657	61,251	+9,407	open	—	10-31 11:52
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1,695	$93.8K	108,641	70,379	+38,262	open	—	10-30 23:47
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	862	$92.7K	73,310	56,216	+17,094	Yes	-$3,518	10-04 23:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	850	$90.0K	64,695	58,592	+6,103	Yes	+$522	07-29 16:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	722	$81.4K	75,615	67,256	+8,359	No	+$321	09-16 18:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1,019	$81.1K	66,881	52,246	+14,635	No	+$173	05-31 10:07
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	800	$80.0K	66,043	51,414	+14,629	open	—	10-31 09:01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	691	$79.0K	69,114	53,511	+15,603	Yes	+$445	08-31 16:19
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	494	$78.5K	46,522	43,654	+2,868	open	—	10-31 11:35
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	891	$75.5K	69,427	44,590	+24,837	Yes	-$4,160	03-01 01:33
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	865	$72.3K	52,369	43,635	+8,734	No	+$542	06-30 22:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	760	$69.5K	60,922	52,211	+8,711	No	-$182	06-29 09:52
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	240	$69.2K	39,671	39,671	+0	open	—	10-23 00:19
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	583	$68.8K	53,561	44,559	+9,002	No	+$4	09-01 03:26
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	640	$68.4K	61,402	43,229	+18,173	No	+$795	05-29 14:11
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	668	$68.1K	55,528	46,015	+9,514	No	+$1,164	06-21 21:52
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	987	$67.4K	58,445	45,213	+13,232	No	+$1,826	09-21 09:06
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	772	$66.8K	56,202	45,456	+10,746	No	+$116	07-31 21:39
Fed rate hike in 2026?	576	$66.5K	70,244	55,783	+14,461	Yes	-$732	09-16 15:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 13:32:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	33	61¢	$20	0xdc4ad6…
10-31 13:32:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0x493248…
10-31 13:32:03	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WV-01 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x309466…
10-31 13:31:37	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,250,000 and 3,500,000?	Yes	SELL	78	19¢	$15	0x360c26…
10-31 13:30:54	Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West?	Yes	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x1b8d9b…
10-31 13:30:40	Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?	Yes	SELL	18	70¢	$13	0xa5aeca…
10-31 13:29:58	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	SELL	26	39¢	$10	0xf01fd8…
10-31 13:29:42	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	No	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xeca1a5…
10-31 13:29:42	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	No	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0xcad519…
10-31 13:29:42	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x601029…
10-31 13:29:42	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x147937…
10-31 13:29:42	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	No	SELL	19	24¢	$5	0x0fd7eb…
10-31 13:29:15	Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$20	0x6db49c…
10-31 13:28:25	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	515	9¢	$46	0xe36144…
10-31 13:28:18	Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	23	64¢	$15	0xd75f28…
10-31 13:28:16	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 4,500,000 and 5,000,000?	Yes	SELL	55	32¢	$18	0x1a8eb3…
10-31 13:28:10	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	9¢	$5	0xd0da80…
10-31 13:27:19	Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Georgia be between 4,200,000 and 4,400,000?	Yes	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0xb4e33f…
10-31 13:27:12	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 5,000,000 and 5,500,000?	Yes	SELL	41	49¢	$20	0xce21ae…
10-31 13:27:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	412	93¢	$383	0xf703c3…
10-31 13:27:04	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0x1ce1c9…
10-31 13:26:48	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 31?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xb0a534…
10-31 13:26:31	Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x048217…
10-31 13:26:13	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	16	77¢	$12	0xb968f4…
10-31 13:25:34	Will Becerra win the 2026 California gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xde0ae3…
10-31 13:25:31	Will Chet Holmgren win the 2026-27 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x604b65…
10-31 13:25:12	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	24	85¢	$20	0x3c6900…
10-31 13:25:10	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	17	87¢	$15	0x4a3ca7…
10-31 13:25:00	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x0ea2bb…
10-31 13:24:58	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0x0bcbfa…
10-31 13:24:25	Will the Central Bank of Chile decrease the monetary policy rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	79	8¢	$6	0xfe8c3b…
10-31 13:24:25	Will the Central Bank of Chile decrease the monetary policy rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x088a15…
10-31 13:24:15	Will Democrats win the Ohio, Iowa, and Maine Senate seats?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x5e6d09…
10-31 13:24:03	Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x326444…
10-31 13:24:03	Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x1f7c86…
10-31 13:24:03	Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0x1f7c86…
10-31 13:24:00	Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xa52429…
10-31 13:23:54	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$20	0xfbc0c9…
10-31 13:23:48	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x1fd934…
10-31 13:23:43	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 31?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$12	0x3ada83…
10-31 13:23:24	Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x72fecb…
10-31 13:23:21	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0x9cfd08…
10-31 13:23:06	Will DK Metcalf have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x49e7b5…
10-31 13:22:49	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1,006	0¢	$4	0x516425…
10-31 13:22:39	Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	26¢	$2	0xd1f3f2…
10-31 13:22:39	Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xbdd41c…
10-31 13:22:39	Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0xb3f19a…
10-31 13:22:18	Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0xa3d8a0…
10-31 13:22:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 31?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x2f88d6…
10-31 13:21:58	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on November 1?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x9d200a…
10-31 13:21:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0x4b0e62…
10-31 13:21:46	Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?	Yes	SELL	73	4¢	$3	0xe14578…
10-31 13:21:46	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1,006	0¢	$4	0x906067…
10-31 13:21:30	Will Lucas Chevalier (PSG) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?	Yes	BUY	309	8¢	$25	0x0306ec…
10-31 13:21:24	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	No	SELL	69	99¢	$68	0xf6b962…
10-31 13:21:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-04 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0xa0cba8…
10-31 13:21:12	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-03 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	32	24¢	$8	0xb4f693…
10-31 13:20:39	Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?	Yes	SELL	71	22¢	$16	0x177e27…
10-31 13:20:25	Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	47	72¢	$34	0xf9563c…
10-31 13:20:25	Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	527	0¢	$2	0xa8deda…
10-31 13:20:22	Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	200	71¢	$142	0xd5e70b…
10-31 13:20:18	Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	198	0¢	$0	0x316b44…
10-31 13:20:10	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	853	0¢	$3	0xe7b16d…
10-31 13:19:12	Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x8e3e36…
10-31 13:19:10	Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats?	No	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0xd32232…
10-31 13:19:09	Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?	Yes	SELL	16	69¢	$11	0x458932…
10-31 13:19:06	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xfc65fc…
10-31 13:18:27	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	51	72¢	$37	0x062d63…
10-31 13:17:43	Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Zacatecas Congress election?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xd55b94…
10-31 13:17:43	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-02 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x84884c…
10-31 13:17:19	Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x64dcc8…
10-31 13:17:19	Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x1e606b…
10-31 13:17:13	Will The Odyssey win Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	130	60¢	$78	0x0e3c00…
10-31 13:16:55	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	16	61¢	$10	0xecb287…
10-31 13:16:51	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	248	33¢	$82	0xd73669…
10-31 13:16:51	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	SELL	48	66¢	$32	0xd73669…
10-31 13:16:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	16	61¢	$10	0xd564dc…
10-31 13:16:51	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	BUY	506	34¢	$172	0x435417…
10-31 13:16:46	Will The Mosquito Bowl win Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	14	5¢	$1	0x094040…
10-31 13:16:40	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	SELL	28	38¢	$11	0xbfecd4…
10-31 13:16:13	Will White House post 160-179 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x740a30…
10-31 13:15:45	Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x6a61c9…
10-31 13:15:33	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	97	55¢	$54	0xb9e972…
10-31 13:15:33	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	67	56¢	$38	0x3d1bb7…
10-31 13:15:30	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0xad3300…
10-31 13:15:27	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	318	47¢	$148	0xaa9d5d…
10-31 13:15:25	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	22	47¢	$10	0xc86b42…
10-31 13:15:25	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	23	53¢	$12	0xc86b42…
10-31 13:15:25	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	54¢	$54	0x44eb6f…
10-31 13:15:19	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by December 31?	No	SELL	11	43¢	$5	0xab72bd…
10-31 13:14:58	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by December 31?	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xc78904…
10-31 13:14:33	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	78	23¢	$18	0x6bf521…
10-31 13:13:54	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x15b097…
10-31 13:12:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 31?	No	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x9a8f00…
10-31 13:12:30	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	No	SELL	17	88¢	$15	0x809f8a…
10-31 13:12:22	Will Democrats sweep the Georgia Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0x3978ff…
10-31 13:12:22	Will Democrats sweep the Georgia Senate and Governor elections?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x30e3ee…
10-31 13:11:54	Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xdc76f8…
10-31 13:11:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 31?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x5d0d0e…
10-31 13:11:33	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	78¢	$32	0x864c12…