Known-Use — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$352.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$20.8K

Hit rate

72.7%

Resolved

79,213

Trades

1,770,738

lifetime

Volume

$63.0M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$162.8K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-01 21:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 305 days

Categories

Other

55% 66% -$223,492

Politics

29% 60% -$112,240

Sports

7% 69% -$5,055

Crypto

6% 77% -$5,046

Tech

2% 60% -$5,710

Pop-Culture

0% 59% -$1,119

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 9899 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+14,585	$9,616	97¢	$14.1K	+$4,509	10-29 17:46
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+15,127	$11,654	82¢	$12.5K	+$826	10-31 15:56
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+20,131	$10,142	57¢	$11.5K	+$1,373	10-30 02:44
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+10,041	$3,903	98¢	$9.9K	+$5,981	10-24 04:22
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+17,929	$9,048	43¢	$7.7K	-$1,375	10-31 14:35
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+6,736	$4,587	92¢	$6.2K	+$1,644	10-27 19:29
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+7,096	$4,616	88¢	$6.2K	+$1,593	11-01 14:02
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+6,935	$5,064	88¢	$6.1K	+$1,074	11-01 10:46
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+6,786	$6,180	85¢	$5.7K	-$432	11-01 20:42
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	+6,402	$5,203	78¢	$5.0K	-$241	10-27 05:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+5,470	$3,352	86¢	$4.7K	+$1,379	10-24 23:39
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+4,756	$4,670	99¢	$4.7K	+$46	08-17 15:03
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+4,415	$3,015	99¢	$4.4K	+$1,356	10-31 11:52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+5,780	$4,223	72¢	$4.2K	-$32	10-30 18:01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	+6,194	$4,077	67¢	$4.1K	+$73	11-01 19:33
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+5,559	$4,456	74¢	$4.1K	-$365	11-01 17:42
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	+5,040	$3,938	80¢	$4.0K	+$91	11-01 20:41
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+3,976	$3,888	99¢	$3.9K	+$37	08-22 03:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+4,261	$2,710	92¢	$3.9K	+$1,189	10-31 18:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+7,323	$4,061	52¢	$3.8K	-$216	11-01 22:51
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+6,192	$3,312	62¢	$3.8K	+$524	10-30 19:05
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+5,914	$3,847	64¢	$3.8K	-$91	10-30 06:21
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+3,640	$3,541	99¢	$3.6K	+$79	10-07 13:03
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+3,929	$1,975	92¢	$3.6K	+$1,620	10-24 16:25
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+3,628	$3,444	99¢	$3.6K	+$131	08-21 17:37
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+9,397	$4,253	38¢	$3.6K	-$677	10-26 21:34
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	+4,173	$3,395	85¢	$3.5K	+$153	11-01 20:00
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,602	$3,520	96¢	$3.5K	-$51	10-27 06:40
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	+4,719	$3,339	74¢	$3.5K	+$129	11-01 20:47
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+7,298	$3,033	48¢	$3.5K	+$433	11-01 12:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1,318	$220.6K	171,970	140,422	+31,548	open	—	10-31 15:56
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2,702	$147.8K	124,657	117,583	+7,074	No	+$9,310	10-26 17:04
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2,393	$138.0K	154,366	116,685	+37,681	Yes	-$17,862	10-26 17:00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	814	$123.2K	83,690	76,825	+6,865	Yes	+$783	10-30 23:27
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	662	$121.5K	82,686	72,958	+9,729	No	+$544	10-23 20:01
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1,696	$117.2K	69,547	74,635	-5,088	No	+$598	10-04 21:45
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	562	$111.5K	73,667	63,427	+10,240	Yes	+$374	09-28 02:09
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1,830	$102.4K	71,241	76,459	-5,218	No	+$3,097	10-26 16:58
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1,380	$100.1K	94,456	80,645	+13,811	No	+$2,249	10-25 02:52
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	1,232	$98.3K	98,406	68,831	+29,575	open	—	10-29 17:46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	788	$97.8K	94,969	72,072	+22,896	Yes	-$4,749	09-16 18:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	574	$97.0K	70,657	61,627	+9,031	open	—	10-31 15:02
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1,697	$93.8K	108,641	70,582	+38,060	open	—	10-31 14:35
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	862	$92.7K	73,310	56,216	+17,094	Yes	-$3,518	10-04 23:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	850	$90.0K	64,695	58,592	+6,103	Yes	+$522	07-29 16:58
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	594	$82.8K	49,581	46,084	+3,497	open	—	11-01 20:42
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	722	$81.4K	75,615	67,256	+8,359	No	+$321	09-16 18:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1,019	$81.1K	66,881	52,246	+14,635	No	+$173	05-31 10:07
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	807	$80.4K	66,043	51,851	+14,192	open	—	11-01 14:02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	691	$79.0K	69,114	53,511	+15,603	Yes	+$445	08-31 16:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	891	$75.5K	69,427	44,590	+24,837	Yes	-$4,160	03-01 01:33
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	865	$72.3K	52,369	43,635	+8,734	No	+$542	06-30 22:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	760	$69.5K	60,922	52,211	+8,711	No	-$182	06-29 09:52
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	240	$69.2K	39,671	39,671	+0	open	—	10-23 00:19
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	583	$68.8K	53,561	44,559	+9,002	No	+$4	09-01 03:26
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	640	$68.4K	61,402	43,229	+18,173	No	+$795	05-29 14:11
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	668	$68.1K	55,528	46,015	+9,514	No	+$1,164	06-21 21:52
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	987	$67.4K	58,445	45,213	+13,232	No	+$1,826	09-21 09:06
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	772	$66.8K	56,202	45,456	+10,746	No	+$116	07-31 21:39
Fed rate hike in 2026?	576	$66.5K	70,244	55,783	+14,461	Yes	-$732	09-16 15:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 23:07:04	Will Tencent be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xca6f18…
11-01 23:06:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	200	35¢	$70	0x905a9d…
11-01 23:06:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x062aae…
11-01 23:06:39	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x0dcc94…
11-01 23:06:13	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-33 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	80	8¢	$7	0x42addd…
11-01 23:05:54	Will Baidu be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xd591e5…
11-01 23:05:52	Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0xcb058a…
11-01 23:05:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	100	68¢	$68	0x1154e2…
11-01 23:05:18	Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x578b9b…
11-01 23:05:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-33 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	80	34¢	$27	0x1863dc…
11-01 23:05:13	Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	763	0¢	$2	0x267b96…
11-01 23:05:04	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	963	0¢	$3	0x743353…
11-01 23:04:51	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on November 1?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xef4a8c…
11-01 23:04:51	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Texas?	No	BUY	700	99¢	$692	0x18b335…
11-01 23:04:09	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1edc23…
11-01 23:03:52	Will Joe Burrow have 3,749.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x4fa6cc…
11-01 23:03:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0xa09fd3…
11-01 23:02:12	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KS-04 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$1	0xec7714…
11-01 23:02:09	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8f9846…
11-01 23:01:49	Will Axis launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	30	33¢	$10	0xc9d363…
11-01 23:01:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0x7b0808…
11-01 23:01:45	Will Republicans win Alaska and Maine, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5c48e3…
11-01 23:01:31	Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x8eb603…
11-01 23:01:18	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	37¢	$11	0x094ef1…
11-01 23:01:13	Will Maria Pappas win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x8e31b8…
11-01 23:01:03	Will PSOE win the most seats in Álava in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	22	28¢	$6	0x3b6c3c…
11-01 23:01:03	Will PSOE win the most seats in Álava in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	24	28¢	$7	0x2a615c…
11-01 23:01:03	Will PSOE win the most seats in Álava in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	0	28¢	$0	0x27103d…
11-01 23:01:01	Will PSOE win the most seats in Álava in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x753b77…
11-01 23:00:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 2?	Yes	SELL	75	97¢	$73	0xdbd5ae…
11-01 23:00:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	56	97¢	$54	0x66decc…
11-01 23:00:45	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	88	88¢	$78	0x5e7a93…
11-01 23:00:39	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on November 2?	No	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x4ba0d0…
11-01 23:00:30	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on November 2?	No	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0x545180…
11-01 23:00:19	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x8ee585…
11-01 22:59:52	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	103	67¢	$69	0x41fde2…
11-01 22:59:51	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0xfbc1f9…
11-01 22:59:48	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Tennessee Senate election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x484daa…
11-01 22:59:31	Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x2385b6…
11-01 22:59:30	Will Vox win the most seats in Almería in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xe3fad2…
11-01 22:59:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x07456b…
11-01 22:59:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	400	92¢	$368	0x326713…
11-01 22:59:09	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 22-24%?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x355fa3…
11-01 22:59:09	Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x2bd3ee…
11-01 22:59:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0x06908c…
11-01 22:58:43	Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0xdad4c2…
11-01 22:58:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 2?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x9bbfeb…
11-01 22:58:39	Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0xca0339…
11-01 22:58:37	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0xabf5b5…
11-01 22:58:34	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x4dd556…
11-01 22:58:31	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x6ea534…
11-01 22:58:24	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	77¢	$20	0xf1a79a…
11-01 22:58:16	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-06 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x71fcd8…
11-01 22:57:58	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	78¢	$22	0x81d453…
11-01 22:57:36	Will Seattle have between 6.75 and 7.75 inches of precipitation in November?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x00601b…
11-01 22:57:31	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0xdb74d1…
11-01 22:57:31	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-03 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0x7a4329…
11-01 22:57:25	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x9065a6…
11-01 22:57:13	Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x9daf6a…
11-01 22:57:12	Will Target Q3 comparable sales growth be above 5%?	Yes	SELL	60	30¢	$18	0x16acf1…
11-01 22:57:01	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-04 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0x322d45…
11-01 22:56:48	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-06 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	80	93¢	$75	0x4e0519…
11-01 22:56:46	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0xdcb5af…
11-01 22:56:27	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x5599ba…
11-01 22:56:25	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xd7c759…
11-01 22:56:21	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xeeacd6…
11-01 22:56:04	Will Parker Washington have 1,149.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	40	59¢	$24	0x5c02f1…
11-01 22:55:55	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	77¢	$39	0xc96e39…
11-01 22:55:42	Will Agapito win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x55260e…
11-01 22:55:25	Will PP win the most seats in Murcia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0x62bfb2…
11-01 22:55:13	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	194	28¢	$54	0x801762…
11-01 22:55:01	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	48	17¢	$8	0xf98f81…
11-01 22:55:01	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	45	17¢	$8	0xec67c0…
11-01 22:55:01	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 25%-30%?	No	SELL	20	82¢	$17	0xec67c0…
11-01 22:55:01	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xbdbf8c…
11-01 22:55:01	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	32	17¢	$5	0x872bfe…
11-01 22:54:43	Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	SELL	11	61¢	$7	0x58092b…
11-01 22:54:10	Will PP win the most seats in Teruel in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	13	89¢	$11	0xe57ac1…
11-01 22:54:09	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-04 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	142	27¢	$38	0x2fd0d5…
11-01 22:54:07	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x45b84b…
11-01 22:54:01	Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0x44c473…
11-01 22:53:52	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by November 30?	Yes	SELL	0	33¢	$0	0x3db644…
11-01 22:52:43	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	20¢	$3	0xf182ff…
11-01 22:52:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xff8f1d…
11-01 22:52:25	Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$14	0xf43505…
11-01 22:52:24	Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0xc05f40…
11-01 22:52:10	Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x46f4b2…
11-01 22:52:00	Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	72	85¢	$61	0x60e92b…
11-01 22:51:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	23	53¢	$12	0xe76db6…
11-01 22:51:06	Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0xbf7c96…
11-01 22:50:49	Will PP win 132-137 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x79820e…
11-01 22:50:43	Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x175567…
11-01 22:50:37	Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	30¢	$9	0xe7d01b…
11-01 22:50:24	Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x58c5c6…
11-01 22:49:57	Will Zay Flowers have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	17	34¢	$6	0x21db86…
11-01 22:49:55	Will Zay Flowers have 5.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	19	33¢	$6	0x04874f…
11-01 22:49:28	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0x247650…
11-01 22:49:13	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x3f2dcd…
11-01 22:49:04	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	120	85¢	$102	0xf1829d…
11-01 22:48:57	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x9a2772…