Known-Use — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$27.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$22.3K

Hit rate

68.4%

Resolved (7d)

1,840

Trades (7d)

59,179

1,748,941 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$1.90M

$62.3M lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$161.6K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 03:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 303 days

Categories

Other

56% 66% -$217,430

Politics

29% 60% -$112,843

Sports

7% 69% -$5,057

Crypto

6% 77% -$4,941

Tech

2% 61% -$5,259

Pop-Culture

0% 60% -$1,050

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 9899 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+14,585	$9,616	97¢	$14.1K	+$4,495	10-29 17:46
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+20,131	$10,142	67¢	$13.6K	+$3,416	10-30 02:44
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+15,595	$12,041	82¢	$12.8K	+$748	10-30 00:14
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+10,041	$3,903	97¢	$9.7K	+$5,806	10-24 04:22
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+6,736	$4,587	92¢	$6.2K	+$1,610	10-27 19:29
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+7,599	$5,052	80¢	$6.1K	+$1,065	10-30 01:32
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+18,513	$9,244	33¢	$6.0K	-$3,200	10-26 22:55
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+6,504	$4,681	84¢	$5.4K	+$751	10-12 17:38
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+5,889	$5,491	84¢	$5.0K	-$517	10-29 17:43
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	+6,402	$5,203	78¢	$5.0K	-$241	10-27 05:54
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	+4,864	$3,763	99¢	$4.8K	+$1,055	10-23 20:01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+5,275	$3,854	90¢	$4.8K	+$920	10-29 21:52
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+4,756	$4,670	99¢	$4.7K	+$44	08-17 15:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+5,470	$3,352	86¢	$4.7K	+$1,324	10-24 23:39
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+5,424	$4,364	78¢	$4.2K	-$133	10-29 19:23
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+6,821	$3,695	60¢	$4.1K	+$404	10-29 17:56
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+3,976	$3,888	99¢	$3.9K	+$37	08-22 03:02
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	+3,880	$3,574	100¢	$3.9K	+$302	09-13 13:13
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+9,397	$4,253	40¢	$3.7K	-$503	10-26 21:34
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+6,111	$3,965	60¢	$3.6K	-$329	10-30 03:31
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+3,640	$3,541	99¢	$3.6K	+$79	10-07 13:03
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+3,929	$1,975	92¢	$3.6K	+$1,620	10-24 16:25
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+3,628	$3,444	98¢	$3.6K	+$124	08-21 17:37
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+4,110	$2,977	86¢	$3.6K	+$578	10-29 19:19
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	Yes	+7,309	$4,056	48¢	$3.5K	-$548	10-29 22:42
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+3,645	$2,130	96¢	$3.5K	+$1,369	10-30 03:56
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	No	+4,439	$3,477	79¢	$3.5K	+$21	10-29 20:47
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+3,474	$2,125	100¢	$3.5K	+$1,343	10-27 22:03
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,602	$3,520	96¢	$3.5K	-$53	10-27 06:40
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15	No	+6,571	$2,685	52¢	$3.4K	+$732	10-29 05:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1,314	$220.2K	171,970	139,954	+32,016	open	—	10-30 00:14
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2,702	$147.8K	124,657	117,583	+7,074	No	+$9,310	10-26 17:04
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2,393	$138.0K	154,366	116,685	+37,681	Yes	-$17,862	10-26 17:00
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	662	$121.5K	82,686	72,958	+9,729	open	—	10-23 20:01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	776	$118.6K	81,518	74,216	+7,302	open	—	10-30 03:56
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1,696	$117.2K	69,547	74,635	-5,088	No	+$598	10-04 21:45
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	562	$111.5K	73,667	63,427	+10,240	Yes	+$374	09-28 02:09
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1,830	$102.4K	71,241	76,459	-5,218	No	+$3,097	10-26 16:58
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1,380	$100.1K	94,456	80,645	+13,811	No	+$2,249	10-25 02:52
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	1,232	$98.3K	98,406	68,831	+29,575	open	—	10-29 17:46
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	788	$97.8K	94,969	72,072	+22,896	Yes	-$4,749	09-16 18:00
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1,688	$93.6K	108,641	69,998	+38,644	open	—	10-30 02:44
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	862	$92.7K	73,310	56,216	+17,094	Yes	-$3,518	10-04 23:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	850	$90.0K	64,695	58,592	+6,103	Yes	+$522	07-29 16:58
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	486	$87.5K	63,720	55,253	+8,467	open	—	10-29 21:52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	722	$81.4K	75,615	67,256	+8,359	No	+$321	09-16 18:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1,019	$81.1K	66,881	52,246	+14,635	No	+$173	05-31 10:07
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	691	$79.0K	69,114	53,511	+15,603	Yes	+$445	08-31 16:19
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	787	$78.4K	65,141	50,446	+14,695	open	—	10-30 01:32
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	463	$75.7K	44,522	42,172	+2,350	open	—	10-29 17:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	891	$75.5K	69,427	44,590	+24,837	Yes	-$4,160	03-01 01:33
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	865	$72.3K	52,369	43,635	+8,734	No	+$542	06-30 22:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	760	$69.5K	60,922	52,211	+8,711	No	-$182	06-29 09:52
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	240	$69.2K	39,671	39,671	+0	open	—	10-23 00:19
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	583	$68.8K	53,561	44,559	+9,002	No	+$4	09-01 03:26
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	640	$68.4K	61,402	43,229	+18,173	No	+$795	05-29 14:11
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	668	$68.1K	55,528	46,015	+9,514	No	+$1,164	06-21 21:52
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	987	$67.4K	58,445	45,213	+13,232	No	+$1,826	09-21 09:06
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	772	$66.8K	56,202	45,456	+10,746	No	+$116	07-31 21:39
Fed rate hike in 2026?	576	$66.5K	70,244	55,783	+14,461	Yes	-$732	09-16 15:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 04:06:10	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xf7d7d9…
10-30 04:06:09	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0xaf0198…
10-30 04:06:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0xa20de3…
10-30 04:05:45	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	76¢	$39	0xe6461a…
10-30 04:05:12	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0x1c8c94…
10-30 04:05:04	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x3c4254…
10-30 04:04:39	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	45	1¢	$0	0xb943ff…
10-30 04:03:51	Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xc65f29…
10-30 04:03:51	Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	No	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0x046b67…
10-30 04:03:45	Will Republicans win the Michigan Senate seat, and Democrats win Ohio?	No	BUY	88	85¢	$75	0xc03f5f…
10-30 04:03:28	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0x42d6fb…
10-30 04:03:24	Will the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) win the most seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xe22f88…
10-30 04:03:07	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	16	60¢	$10	0x80fc0d…
10-30 04:02:42	Will PP win the most seats in Zaragoza in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x8b73c4…
10-30 04:02:33	Will T1 Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	SELL	16	39¢	$6	0xeab6bd…
10-30 04:02:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 30?	No	BUY	51	91¢	$46	0xdd9198…
10-30 04:02:12	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	76¢	$41	0xf480d7…
10-30 04:02:12	Will Diable play for Oh My God in 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x83ba94…
10-30 04:01:54	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x992877…
10-30 04:01:28	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	26¢	$22	0xb7f8d5…
10-30 04:01:13	Will Junior Caminero win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Yes	SELL	13	3¢	$0	0xbcdf4e…
10-30 04:01:12	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xce60d3…
10-30 04:00:51	Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xcc6fd0…
10-30 04:00:37	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	120	86¢	$103	0xf1bfb0…
10-30 04:00:33	Will there be between 110m and 115m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	No	BUY	92	85¢	$78	0x0156fc…
10-30 04:00:00	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	No	SELL	19	85¢	$16	0x266d12…
10-30 03:59:43	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?	Yes	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0x177880…
10-30 03:59:39	Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x0d5c52…
10-30 03:59:31	Will the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) win the most seats in the next Punjab Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xc6f93a…
10-30 03:59:22	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Secretary of State election?	Yes	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0x3e20ed…
10-30 03:58:25	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be between 1,800,000 and 2,000,000?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x22c5ee…
10-30 03:57:58	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	31	60¢	$19	0x96387b…
10-30 03:57:55	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	95	40¢	$38	0x4df3cd…
10-30 03:57:00	Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	21¢	$13	0x2febb7…
10-30 03:56:58	Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xb74a80…
10-30 03:56:51	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xfd1c94…
10-30 03:56:51	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xbd1b84…
10-30 03:56:51	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x16ba2a…
10-30 03:56:48	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xdc18ee…
10-30 03:56:48	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x903c92…
10-30 03:56:48	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x402456…
10-30 03:56:46	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xbbc184…
10-30 03:56:46	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x720d41…
10-30 03:56:45	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8f043d…
10-30 03:56:45	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x8009c2…
10-30 03:56:45	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x344944…
10-30 03:56:45	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2787ca…
10-30 03:56:43	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe5c192…
10-30 03:56:42	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc5885b…
10-30 03:56:40	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe51eb2…
10-30 03:56:40	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xb2af34…
10-30 03:56:40	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x3ac261…
10-30 03:56:39	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	16	89¢	$14	0xb78702…
10-30 03:56:39	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	15	89¢	$13	0xa87c65…
10-30 03:56:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x12883d…
10-30 03:56:34	Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0x6bda4c…
10-30 03:56:16	Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	Yes	BUY	195	11¢	$22	0x973dcd…
10-30 03:56:16	Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x973dcd…
10-30 03:56:13	Will Luka Doncic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?	Yes	SELL	34	25¢	$8	0x79bb8f…
10-30 03:56:09	Will Democrats win the Maine Governor election and Republicans win the Maine Senate election?	Yes	BUY	24	33¢	$8	0x08471d…
10-30 03:56:07	Will Democrats win the Maine Governor election and Republicans win the Maine Senate election?	Yes	BUY	205	33¢	$68	0x4585b5…
10-30 03:55:04	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x79d82b…
10-30 03:54:36	Pacifica FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$27	0x8cc594…
10-30 03:54:03	Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation at the end of October?	No	BUY	247	2¢	$4	0x63b0a6…
10-30 03:54:01	Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation at the end of October?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x071fcc…
10-30 03:53:58	Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation at the end of October?	No	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x5025cf…
10-30 03:53:58	Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation at the end of October?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x3b6c4f…
10-30 03:53:45	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	1,224	91¢	$1,115	0x964be5…
10-30 03:53:06	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	SELL	75	37¢	$28	0xfe1bcd…
10-30 03:52:51	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in October?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x12a095…
10-30 03:51:33	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	SELL	231	100¢	$230	0xd1f0b4…
10-30 03:51:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 30?	No	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0xf4e463…
10-30 03:50:22	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	800	68¢	$544	0x848264…
10-30 03:50:07	Will "Ink" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0xafc14d…
10-30 03:49:24	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	18	37¢	$7	0xd01bea…
10-30 03:49:22	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	958	37¢	$357	0xa10050…
10-30 03:49:07	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x42ff49…
10-30 03:48:54	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x26e1ea…
10-30 03:48:51	Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?	No	BUY	107	63¢	$67	0xa5a0bb…
10-30 03:48:48	Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?	No	BUY	49	63¢	$31	0x44aff1…
10-30 03:48:48	Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?	Yes	SELL	60	37¢	$22	0x44aff1…
10-30 03:48:27	Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	51	49¢	$25	0x794497…
10-30 03:48:21	Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	15	47¢	$7	0xa8ef90…
10-30 03:48:21	Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	53¢	$12	0x10e036…
10-30 03:48:19	Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	53¢	$14	0xd8d986…
10-30 03:48:19	Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	16	47¢	$7	0xd8d986…
10-30 03:48:19	Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x2ebc61…
10-30 03:48:16	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?	Yes	BUY	120	10¢	$12	0xe7eb04…
10-30 03:47:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xb9b73d…
10-30 03:46:28	Ilhan Omar arrested by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	3¢	$1	0x72d18e…
10-30 03:44:55	Will any contestant beat Luke Littler?	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xfe0a18…
10-30 03:44:34	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	No	BUY	162	86¢	$139	0xc3bcc5…
10-30 03:44:06	Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xa60f27…
10-30 03:43:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x3402b3…
10-30 03:43:49	Will Luis Zamora Carrillo win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	No	BUY	19	86¢	$17	0x0041d0…
10-30 03:43:15	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xf0741b…
10-30 03:42:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x70e107…
10-30 03:42:19	Will Luis Zamora Carrillo win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x06ab2f…
10-30 03:41:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	2,000	13¢	$264	0x830d38…
10-30 03:41:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	BUY	51	13¢	$7	0x8cfda3…