Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
open
Total volume
$854,166
Trades
1,669
Unique wallets
383
Liquidity
$7,445
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-29
last 08-15 14:19
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-6.5¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $1.6K
vs crowd: 8% YES on $431.6K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 26 | $99 | $3.9K | $3.8K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 39 | $329 | $2.9K | $2.5K |
| 🐟 Fish | 119 | $32.0K | $388.6K | $356.6K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 199 | $235 | $3.6K | $3.3K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 6 | $17 | $1.5K | $1.5K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 19 | $133 | $1.9K | $1.8K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 7 | $11 | $808 | $798 |
| Median | 52 | $5 | $1.3K | $1.3K |
| Below median | 45 | $42 | $1.1K | $1.1K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 8 | $31 | $156 | $125 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 11 | $119 | $208 | $89 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $13 | $1.2K | $1.1K |
| unranked | 232 | $32.3K | $390.7K | $358.5K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horrible-Pitcher 0xf939…16af | Yes | +5,444 | $440 | $63,452 | 156 | 06-08 07:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xef45…c583 | No | +5,444 | $5,008 | $45,076 | 9 | 05-30 11:39 |
| Worthless-Summer 0xe29e…fa35 | Yes | +1,402 | $75 | $75 | 2 | 07-06 03:47 |
| Rundown-Schoolhouse 0x6abe…d6a5 | No | +967 | $908 | $1,210 | 2 | 08-01 02:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +454 | $438 | $438 | 6 | 08-01 02:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | +429 | $13 | $13 | 25 | 08-15 08:33 |
| Creepy-Task 0xe838…3832 | No | +308 | $280 | $280 | 1 | 07-06 03:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x30dd…bb80 | No | +200 | $193 | $193 | 1 | 07-02 03:51 |
| Prickly-Offense 0xe947…ab96 | No | +200 | $190 | $190 | 1 | 05-31 00:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x722e…51af | No | +200 | $186 | $186 | 5 | 05-29 21:22 |
| Advanced-Petitioner 0x2e62…b22e | Yes | +178 | $2 | $22 | 4 | 07-19 00:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x4775…d205 | No | +176 | $170 | $170 | 1 | 07-02 06:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x7820…fa12 | No | +143 | $137 | $137 | 7 | 07-25 00:00 |
| Complete-Novel 0x60fd…89a9 | Yes | +131 | $8 | $66 | 11 | 06-02 15:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xfac0…fdd8 | Yes | +121 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-30 21:22 |
| Genuine-Segment 0xd34b…0004 | No | +120 | $111 | $111 | 5 | 07-06 06:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xa15b…8ff7 | No | +115 | $111 | $111 | 1 | 06-09 11:43 |
| Obedient-Mini 0x3806…d265 | Yes | +110 | $7 | $21 | 2 | 07-07 03:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | +109 | $95 | $705 | 38 | 08-05 01:57 |
| 0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781 0x6d65…3781 | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-31 22:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x1500…d35a | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 2 | 06-16 05:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b13…28df | No | +100 | $93 | $93 | 1 | 05-31 10:21 |
| Plush-Dirt 0x9d69…ab3a | No | +89 | $83 | $83 | 2 | 05-30 21:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x94e6…2d1f | Yes | +84 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-07 14:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x9ec4…2e6a | No | +80 | $75 | $75 | 2 | 07-23 15:38 |
| Snappy-Danger 0xe6c3…9ed6 | No | +74 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 05-30 18:31 |
| Interesting-Rest 0xd9b4…2d6c | Yes | +71 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-29 17:47 |
| Basic-Hamster 0x5824…69a9 | No | +70 | $65 | $65 | 1 | 05-29 14:24 |
| Fruitful-Promenade-Spirit 0xf031…2883 | No | +60 | $56 | $95 | 3 | 06-15 16:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x2e7b…179e | No | +57 | $55 | $55 | 1 | 08-15 05:50 |
| Yellow-Alphabet 0x7e5e…7315 | Yes | +56 | $2 | $2 | 5 | 06-05 14:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xae75…dcb7 | No | +53 | $51 | $51 | 2 | 06-16 05:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xbf53…415d | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 05-30 23:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x2c7c…07eb | No | +52 | $49 | $49 | 2 | 08-09 12:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x27a6…6480 | No | +51 | $49 | $49 | 1 | 08-15 05:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x8132…fe3c | No | +51 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-17 04:16 |
| Outlandish-Sideburns 0xb3ff…374f | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-03 09:14 |
| Hungry-Legging 0xfd1b…650b | No | +50 | $46 | $46 | 1 | 07-06 22:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x3641…0ff8 | No | +50 | $46 | $46 | 2 | 05-29 22:25 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +50 | $-7 | $29 | 15 | 08-07 15:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x475e…f5fc | No | +47 | $46 | $46 | 8 | 06-22 07:38 |
| Fussy-Throne 0xaa0d…96e7 | No | +46 | $43 | $43 | 1 | 07-06 21:12 |
| Colossal-Polliwog 0x052d…b892 | Yes | +45 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-17 02:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x4247…91c4 | Yes | +41 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-29 21:22 |
| Courteous-Dwell 0xe068…c5ea | Yes | +30 | $2 | $2 | 6 | 05-31 04:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x607f…d6c5 | Yes | +27 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-12 01:59 |
| Moral-Countryside 0xb1c9…bf22 | Yes | +27 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 15:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xc02d…6767 | Yes | +26 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-20 00:36 |
| Excitable-Ladder 0xabfc…039c | Yes | +25 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-09 12:27 |
| Quick-Witted-Artichoke 0xacc6…236d | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 16:42 |
| Open-Elevator 0xb8ed…3363 | Yes | +18 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-27 05:28 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-15 14:19:40 | (anonymous) 0xef38…adc9 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xe15af1… |
| 08-15 14:19:40 | (anonymous) 0xf808…669d | No | SELL | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xe15af1… |
| 08-15 08:33:45 | Suspicious-Plane-Literate 0xba91…1f7f | Yes | SELL | 34 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xab9567… |
| 08-15 08:33:45 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 34 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xab9567… |
| 08-15 05:50:42 | (anonymous) 0x2e7b…179e | No | BUY | 57 | 97¢ | $55 | 0x07e3ca… |
| 08-15 05:50:42 | (anonymous) 0xef38…adc9 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x07e3ca… |
| 08-15 05:50:42 | Extroverted-Narrative 0x9c48…b968 | No | SELL | 130 | 97¢ | $126 | 0x07e3ca… |
| 08-15 05:50:42 | (anonymous) 0x27a6…6480 | No | BUY | 51 | 97¢ | $49 | 0x07e3ca… |
| 08-15 05:50:42 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x07e3ca… |
| 08-15 01:16:22 | Impish-Locust 0x84a0…1b18 | No | BUY | 19 | 97¢ | $18 | 0x1592c1… |
| 08-15 01:16:22 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 19 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x1592c1… |
| 08-14 08:25:40 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x57bb90… |
| 08-14 08:25:40 | (anonymous) 0xc3b1…f77e | No | BUY | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0x57bb90… |
| 08-14 07:36:49 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x87b460… |
| 08-14 07:36:49 | (anonymous) 0xc58e…6fe6 | No | BUY | 12 | 97¢ | $12 | 0x87b460… |
| 08-14 07:28:36 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7fe9ea… |
| 08-14 07:28:36 | (anonymous) 0x83a5…3b11 | No | BUY | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0x7fe9ea… |
| 08-14 02:52:21 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xf1e0ab… |
| 08-14 02:52:21 | Flickering-Basement 0x6a0a…f913 | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0xf1e0ab… |
| 08-14 01:56:48 | (anonymous) 0xa642…e3af | No | SELL | 19 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x74e063… |
| 08-14 01:56:48 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x74e063… |
| 08-14 01:47:37 | (anonymous) 0x8c8c…9cd6 | No | BUY | 14 | 97¢ | $14 | 0x95fe4d… |
| 08-14 01:47:37 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x95fe4d… |
| 08-13 14:27:54 | (anonymous) 0x0ec8…1739 | No | BUY | 17 | 97¢ | $16 | 0x9dfb2b… |
| 08-13 14:27:54 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 17 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x9dfb2b… |
| 08-13 08:41:09 | (anonymous) 0xf606…b368 | No | BUY | 14 | 97¢ | $14 | 0xc6c3cf… |
| 08-13 08:41:09 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc6c3cf… |
| 08-13 08:24:43 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 15 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xa2a0c9… |
| 08-13 08:24:43 | Trifling-Generator 0x74cb…a374 | No | BUY | 15 | 97¢ | $15 | 0xa2a0c9… |
| 08-13 07:53:46 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcd468e… |
| 08-13 07:53:46 | (anonymous) 0xf0a0…029c | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0xcd468e… |
| 08-13 02:27:52 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 22 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x907dd3… |
| 08-13 02:27:52 | Energetic-Stealth 0x2d07…d032 | No | BUY | 22 | 97¢ | $21 | 0x907dd3… |
| 08-13 01:49:45 | (anonymous) 0x9278…02af | No | BUY | 24 | 97¢ | $23 | 0x9d487a… |
| 08-13 01:49:45 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 24 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x9d487a… |
| 08-13 01:40:21 | Comfortable-Morphology 0x8f8d…fe0f | No | BUY | 12 | 97¢ | $12 | 0xf3522e… |
| 08-13 01:40:21 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xf3522e… |
| 08-12 08:16:03 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x1a37cb… |
| 08-12 08:16:03 | Vicious-Bayou 0x7513…ad54 | No | BUY | 14 | 97¢ | $14 | 0x1a37cb… |
| 08-12 08:10:10 | (anonymous) 0x6418…c732 | No | BUY | 12 | 97¢ | $12 | 0x7fd391… |
| 08-12 08:10:10 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7fd391… |
| 08-12 07:59:45 | Crazy-Cocktail 0x43a8…d354 | No | BUY | 14 | 97¢ | $14 | 0xf07fdd… |
| 08-12 07:59:45 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xf07fdd… |
| 08-12 07:47:31 | (anonymous) 0x4fad…262e | No | BUY | 12 | 97¢ | $12 | 0xffe78d… |
| 08-12 07:47:31 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xffe78d… |
| 08-12 07:32:28 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x73cd75… |
| 08-12 07:32:28 | (anonymous) 0x50a7…5c13 | No | BUY | 14 | 97¢ | $14 | 0x73cd75… |
| 08-12 07:12:31 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 17 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x0535f1… |
| 08-12 07:12:31 | Lustrous-Calculus 0xde16…9ca0 | No | BUY | 17 | 97¢ | $16 | 0x0535f1… |
| 08-12 03:19:21 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 23 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x1feb19… |
| 08-12 03:19:21 | Cloudy-Oats 0xd6c3…eea6 | No | BUY | 23 | 97¢ | $22 | 0x1feb19… |
| 08-12 02:49:00 | (anonymous) 0x8daf…0b51 | No | BUY | 13 | 97¢ | $13 | 0xf444f2… |
| 08-12 02:49:00 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 13 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xf444f2… |
| 08-12 01:59:27 | (anonymous) 0xbe19…abee | No | BUY | 26 | 97¢ | $25 | 0xe5cd81… |
| 08-12 01:59:27 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 26 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xe5cd81… |
| 08-12 01:59:21 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 27 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xfd38d2… |
| 08-12 01:59:21 | (anonymous) 0x607f…d6c5 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xfd38d2… |
| 08-12 01:59:18 | Great-Quartet 0xeeee…66c8 | No | BUY | 18 | 97¢ | $17 | 0x9c66f7… |
| 08-12 01:59:18 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 18 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x9c66f7… |
| 08-11 10:16:03 | Tan-Inscription 0x5ffc…ce81 | No | BUY | 38 | 97¢ | $37 | 0x305e64… |
| 08-11 10:16:03 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | Yes | BUY | 38 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x305e64… |
| 08-10 08:15:10 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x08fa29… |
| 08-10 08:15:10 | (anonymous) 0xb5c3…7537 | No | BUY | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0x08fa29… |
| 08-10 08:07:46 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x0b1d8f… |
| 08-10 08:07:46 | Identical-Census 0x395e…6002 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x0b1d8f… |
| 08-10 03:30:04 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0xdb0847… |
| 08-10 03:30:04 | (anonymous) 0x53e0…74b6 | No | BUY | 15 | 97¢ | $15 | 0xdb0847… |
| 08-10 03:30:04 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xdb0847… |
| 08-10 03:25:01 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x0bf659… |
| 08-10 03:25:01 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x0bf659… |
| 08-10 03:25:01 | (anonymous) 0x7dc8…5d7f | No | BUY | 24 | 97¢ | $23 | 0x0bf659… |
| 08-10 02:19:22 | (anonymous) 0x0cf1…d6c4 | No | BUY | 13 | 97¢ | $13 | 0x67115d… |
| 08-10 02:19:22 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x67115d… |
| 08-10 02:19:22 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x67115d… |
| 08-09 12:27:57 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xbc0a86… |
| 08-09 12:27:57 | (anonymous) 0x2c7c…07eb | No | BUY | 12 | 96¢ | $11 | 0xbc0a86… |
| 08-09 12:27:57 | Excitable-Ladder 0xabfc…039c | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xbc0a86… |
| 08-09 09:09:36 | (anonymous) 0x5c53…f60f | No | BUY | 19 | 97¢ | $18 | 0x666c94… |
| 08-09 09:09:36 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x666c94… |
| 08-09 09:09:36 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x666c94… |
| 08-09 05:05:30 | (anonymous) 0x2c7c…07eb | No | BUY | 40 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x8e99dc… |
| 08-09 05:05:30 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | SELL | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0x8e99dc… |
| 08-09 05:05:30 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x8e99dc… |
| 08-08 07:54:25 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x5f9377… |
| 08-08 07:54:25 | Virtuous-Compassionate 0x28b9…2bdc | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x5f9377… |
| 08-07 15:19:43 | Loathsome-Recommendation 0x81b7…d59f | Yes | BUY | 0 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcf3d36… |
| 08-07 15:19:43 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcf3d36… |
| 08-07 15:19:43 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xcf3d36… |
| 08-07 15:19:43 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcf3d36… |
| 08-07 06:57:43 | (anonymous) 0x5b5e…dcf4 | No | BUY | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x08bcac… |
| 08-07 06:57:43 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x08bcac… |
| 08-07 03:16:28 | (anonymous) 0x7c20…0074 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x4f9104… |
| 08-07 03:16:28 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x4f9104… |
| 08-07 03:08:51 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xe8f5b1… |
| 08-07 03:08:51 | (anonymous) 0x3f1b…2686 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0xe8f5b1… |
| 08-07 03:02:58 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x91c617… |
| 08-07 03:02:58 | (anonymous) 0xc9e4…3833 | No | SELL | 15 | 96¢ | $14 | 0x91c617… |
| 08-07 01:31:37 | (anonymous) 0x697f…339a | No | BUY | 18 | 97¢ | $17 | 0x52bbbb… |
| 08-07 01:31:37 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x52bbbb… |
| 08-07 01:31:37 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x52bbbb… |