Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
open
Total volume
$848,480
Trades
1,148
Unique wallets
281
Liquidity
$7,445
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-29
last 07-06 04:41
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-6.5¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $1.5K
vs crowd: 8% YES on $428.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 22 | $75 | $3.2K | $3.1K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 33 | $298 | $2.6K | $2.3K |
| 🐟 Fish | 78 | $32.0K | $387.3K | $355.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 148 | $228 | $2.8K | $2.6K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 6 | $17 | $1.5K | $1.5K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 19 | $123 | $2.0K | $1.9K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 7 | $8 | $663 | $655 |
| Median | 43 | $5 | $723 | $718 |
| Below median | 36 | $36 | $718 | $682 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $7 | $216 | $209 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 12 | $117 | $198 | $81 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | — | $1.1K | $1.1K |
| unranked | 148 | $32.3K | $388.8K | $356.6K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horrible-Pitcher 0xf939…16af | Yes | +5,444 | $440 | $63,452 | 156 | 06-08 07:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xef45…c583 | No | +5,444 | $5,008 | $45,076 | 9 | 05-30 11:39 |
| Worthless-Summer 0xe29e…fa35 | Yes | +1,402 | $75 | $75 | 2 | 07-06 03:47 |
| Rundown-Schoolhouse 0x6abe…d6a5 | No | +1,125 | $1,059 | $1,059 | 1 | 05-30 20:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | +325 | $303 | $497 | 20 | 07-06 03:47 |
| Creepy-Task 0xe838…3832 | No | +308 | $280 | $280 | 1 | 07-06 03:47 |
| Advanced-Petitioner 0x2e62…b22e | Yes | +298 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 06-27 05:28 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +227 | $214 | $830 | 21 | 07-06 03:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x30dd…bb80 | No | +200 | $193 | $193 | 1 | 07-02 03:51 |
| Obedient-Mini 0x3806…d265 | Yes | +200 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 05-29 14:24 |
| Prickly-Offense 0xe947…ab96 | No | +200 | $190 | $190 | 1 | 05-31 00:59 |
| Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | +200 | $193 | $193 | 1 | 07-06 03:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x722e…51af | No | +200 | $186 | $186 | 5 | 05-29 21:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x4775…d205 | No | +176 | $170 | $170 | 1 | 07-02 06:27 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +138 | $133 | $133 | 1 | 07-06 03:46 |
| Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | +135 | $129 | $129 | 1 | 07-01 10:18 |
| Complete-Novel 0x60fd…89a9 | Yes | +131 | $8 | $66 | 11 | 06-02 15:28 |
| Extroverted-Narrative 0x9c48…b968 | No | +130 | $120 | $150 | 2 | 06-20 10:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xfac0…fdd8 | Yes | +121 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-30 21:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xa15b…8ff7 | No | +115 | $111 | $111 | 1 | 06-09 11:43 |
| 0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781 0x6d65…3781 | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-31 22:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x1500…d35a | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 2 | 06-16 05:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b13…28df | No | +100 | $93 | $93 | 1 | 05-31 10:21 |
| Plush-Dirt 0x9d69…ab3a | No | +89 | $83 | $83 | 2 | 05-30 21:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x94e6…2d1f | Yes | +84 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-07 14:27 |
| Snappy-Danger 0xe6c3…9ed6 | No | +74 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 05-30 18:31 |
| Interesting-Rest 0xd9b4…2d6c | Yes | +71 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-29 17:47 |
| Basic-Hamster 0x5824…69a9 | No | +70 | $65 | $65 | 1 | 05-29 14:24 |
| Genuine-Segment 0xd34b…0004 | No | +70 | $65 | $65 | 4 | 07-06 03:47 |
| Fruitful-Promenade-Spirit 0xf031…2883 | No | +60 | $56 | $95 | 3 | 06-15 16:57 |
| Yellow-Alphabet 0x7e5e…7315 | Yes | +56 | $2 | $2 | 5 | 06-05 14:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xae75…dcb7 | No | +53 | $51 | $51 | 2 | 06-16 05:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xbf53…415d | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 05-30 23:58 |
| New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 4 | 07-06 03:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x8132…fe3c | No | +51 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-17 04:16 |
| Outlandish-Sideburns 0xb3ff…374f | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-03 09:14 |
| Reckless-Compassionate 0x3ea7…7fc0 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-06 03:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x9ec4…2e6a | No | +50 | $46 | $46 | 1 | 05-29 14:24 |
| Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-06 03:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x3641…0ff8 | No | +50 | $46 | $46 | 2 | 05-29 22:25 |
| Colossal-Polliwog 0x052d…b892 | Yes | +45 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-17 02:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x4247…91c4 | Yes | +41 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-29 21:22 |
| Ultimate-Tomtom 0x3d68…db93 | Yes | +36 | $1 | $1 | 5 | 06-25 20:59 |
| Suspicious-Plane-Literate 0xba91…1f7f | Yes | +34 | $4 | $6 | 2 | 06-15 21:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | +33 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 07-01 10:19 |
| Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | +31 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-27 00:47 |
| Courteous-Dwell 0xe068…c5ea | Yes | +30 | $2 | $2 | 6 | 05-31 04:17 |
| Moral-Countryside 0xb1c9…bf22 | Yes | +27 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 15:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xf2e8…e187 | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 10:15 |
| Quick-Witted-Artichoke 0xacc6…236d | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 16:42 |
| Open-Elevator 0xb8ed…3363 | Yes | +18 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-27 05:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xf156…8623 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-31 03:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | +16 | $1 | $2 | 4 | 06-12 22:54 |
| Rigid-Monitor 0x00b1…bf06 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-29 18:06 |
| Buoyant-Molasses 0xc6ba…b46d | Yes | +12 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-01 16:29 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 04:41:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 0 | 92¢ | $0 | 0x092a58… |
| 07-06 04:41:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 50 | 8¢ | $4 | 0x092a58… |
| 07-06 04:41:53 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 50 | 92¢ | $46 | 0x092a58… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | (anonymous) 0x3d49…9fc1 | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | Creepy-Task 0xe838…3832 | No | BUY | 308 | 91¢ | $280 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | BUY | 109 | 92¢ | $100 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | Genuine-Segment 0xd34b…0004 | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | Worthless-Summer 0xe29e…fa35 | Yes | BUY | 802 | 7¢ | $54 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 200 | 96¢ | $193 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:47:56 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | BUY | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0x5fb5d1… |
| 07-06 03:46:44 | Secondary-Maximum 0xa5c7…7e7b | No | BUY | 19 | 97¢ | $18 | 0xf2bd1d… |
| 07-06 03:46:44 | Worthless-Summer 0xe29e…fa35 | Yes | BUY | 601 | 3¢ | $21 | 0xf2bd1d… |
| 07-06 03:46:44 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 22 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xf2bd1d… |
| 07-06 03:46:44 | Reckless-Compassionate 0x3ea7…7fc0 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xf2bd1d… |
| 07-06 03:46:44 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 138 | 96¢ | $133 | 0xf2bd1d… |
| 07-06 03:46:44 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 29 | 96¢ | $28 | 0xf2bd1d… |
| 07-06 03:46:44 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 200 | 97¢ | $193 | 0xf2bd1d… |
| 07-06 03:46:44 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0xf2bd1d… |
| 07-06 03:46:44 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xf2bd1d… |
| 07-05 01:51:02 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x1494e2… |
| 07-05 01:51:02 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x1494e2… |
| 07-05 01:50:49 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x49e45b… |
| 07-05 01:50:49 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x49e45b… |
| 07-04 15:47:40 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xe30425… |
| 07-04 15:47:40 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xe30425… |
| 07-04 15:47:29 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x30ed7a… |
| 07-04 15:47:29 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x30ed7a… |
| 07-04 00:57:14 | (anonymous) 0x5f42…e101 | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xa4bb5b… |
| 07-04 00:57:14 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xa4bb5b… |
| 07-04 00:57:08 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x09471c… |
| 07-04 00:57:08 | (anonymous) 0x5f42…e101 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x09471c… |
| 07-04 00:55:55 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 8 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xff8a3b… |
| 07-04 00:55:55 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 8 | 97¢ | $8 | 0xff8a3b… |
| 07-04 00:53:07 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 9 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc0cc71… |
| 07-04 00:53:07 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 9 | 97¢ | $9 | 0xc0cc71… |
| 07-04 00:48:58 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0xeb0921… |
| 07-04 00:48:58 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xeb0921… |
| 07-04 00:45:44 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 13 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x21f465… |
| 07-04 00:45:44 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 13 | 97¢ | $12 | 0x21f465… |
| 07-04 00:41:41 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 15 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x46d67e… |
| 07-04 00:41:41 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 15 | 97¢ | $15 | 0x46d67e… |
| 07-04 00:37:47 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 18 | 97¢ | $17 | 0x57c0fa… |
| 07-04 00:37:47 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 18 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x57c0fa… |
| 07-03 22:45:53 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x44efc2… |
| 07-03 22:45:53 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x44efc2… |
| 07-03 22:45:53 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 2 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x44efc2… |
| 07-03 22:45:44 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x10f183… |
| 07-03 22:45:44 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x10f183… |
| 07-03 22:05:56 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x5c8fd9… |
| 07-03 22:05:56 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x5c8fd9… |
| 07-03 22:05:44 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x6d0091… |
| 07-03 22:05:44 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x6d0091… |
| 07-03 16:58:16 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2a3510… |
| 07-03 16:58:16 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x2a3510… |
| 07-03 16:58:07 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xf61465… |
| 07-03 16:58:07 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xf61465… |
| 07-03 09:14:20 | Outlandish-Sideburns 0xb3ff…374f | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0x49dd76… |
| 07-03 09:14:20 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x49dd76… |
| 07-02 20:02:44 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x1b7ddc… |
| 07-02 20:02:44 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x1b7ddc… |
| 07-02 11:55:44 | Inferior-Eyeliner 0x9e1b…2740 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x4e7984… |
| 07-02 11:55:44 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x4e7984… |
| 07-02 06:27:46 | Content-Neurobiologist 0x2e68…6898 | No | SELL | 176 | 97¢ | $170 | 0x1ffc4e… |
| 07-02 06:27:46 | (anonymous) 0x4775…d205 | No | BUY | 176 | 97¢ | $170 | 0x1ffc4e… |
| 07-02 03:51:56 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x1374d3… |
| 07-02 03:51:56 | (anonymous) 0xb50a…a2b8 | No | SELL | 46 | 96¢ | $45 | 0x1374d3… |
| 07-02 03:51:56 | (anonymous) 0x652a…fd23 | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x1374d3… |
| 07-02 03:51:56 | (anonymous) 0x30dd…bb80 | No | BUY | 200 | 96¢ | $193 | 0x1374d3… |
| 07-02 02:05:29 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x08d3dc… |
| 07-02 02:05:29 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x08d3dc… |
| 07-02 02:05:20 | (anonymous) 0xb50a…a2b8 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa7f18c… |
| 07-02 02:05:20 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa7f18c… |
| 07-01 23:36:37 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x3cdf84… |
| 07-01 23:36:37 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x3cdf84… |
| 07-01 23:36:29 | (anonymous) 0x408c…5eff | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x45283f… |
| 07-01 23:36:29 | (anonymous) 0xdd9b…5124 | No | SELL | 4 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x45283f… |
| 07-01 23:36:29 | (anonymous) 0xb50a…a2b8 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x45283f… |
| 07-01 22:46:49 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc7e0f1… |
| 07-01 22:46:49 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc7e0f1… |
| 07-01 22:46:38 | (anonymous) 0xdd9b…5124 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf45030… |
| 07-01 22:46:38 | (anonymous) 0xee2f…f4da | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf45030… |
| 07-01 22:41:26 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x555366… |
| 07-01 22:41:26 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 9 | 96¢ | $8 | 0x555366… |
| 07-01 22:41:20 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $8 | 0xce0a2d… |
| 07-01 22:41:20 | (anonymous) 0xdd9b…5124 | No | SELL | 9 | 96¢ | $8 | 0xce0a2d… |
| 07-01 20:57:47 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x1a772a… |
| 07-01 20:57:47 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x1a772a… |
| 07-01 20:57:40 | (anonymous) 0xdd9b…5124 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x32a3b0… |
| 07-01 20:57:40 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x32a3b0… |
| 07-01 20:36:19 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc3d8df… |
| 07-01 20:36:19 | (anonymous) 0xdd9b…5124 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc3d8df… |
| 07-01 20:21:19 | (anonymous) 0xe20a…d74f | Yes | SELL | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xe7ebfc… |
| 07-01 20:21:19 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 9 | 96¢ | $8 | 0xe7ebfc… |
| 07-01 20:21:02 | (anonymous) 0xdd9b…5124 | No | SELL | 9 | 96¢ | $8 | 0x588309… |
| 07-01 20:21:02 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $8 | 0x588309… |
| 07-01 19:23:28 | (anonymous) 0xc03d…ca87 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x1001af… |