Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
open
Total volume
$852,129
Trades
1,498
Unique wallets
316
Liquidity
$7,445
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-29
last 07-26 16:08
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-6.5¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $1.6K
vs crowd: 8% YES on $430.3K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 25 | $94 | $3.7K | $3.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 37 | $310 | $2.8K | $2.5K |
| 🐟 Fish | 96 | $32.0K | $388.2K | $356.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 158 | $233 | $2.9K | $2.7K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 6 | $17 | $1.5K | $1.5K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 19 | $127 | $1.9K | $1.8K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 8 | $11 | $808 | $798 |
| Median | 51 | $5 | $1.3K | $1.3K |
| Below median | 45 | $42 | $1.1K | $1.1K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 6 | $10 | $156 | $146 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 13 | $134 | $202 | $68 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | — | $1.2K | $1.2K |
| unranked | 165 | $32.3K | $389.6K | $357.3K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horrible-Pitcher 0xf939…16af | Yes | +5,444 | $440 | $63,452 | 156 | 06-08 07:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xef45…c583 | No | +5,444 | $5,008 | $45,076 | 9 | 05-30 11:39 |
| Worthless-Summer 0xe29e…fa35 | Yes | +1,402 | $75 | $75 | 2 | 07-06 03:47 |
| Rundown-Schoolhouse 0x6abe…d6a5 | No | +1,125 | $1,059 | $1,059 | 1 | 05-30 20:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +377 | $363 | $363 | 5 | 07-18 09:45 |
| Creepy-Task 0xe838…3832 | No | +308 | $280 | $280 | 1 | 07-06 03:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x30dd…bb80 | No | +200 | $193 | $193 | 1 | 07-02 03:51 |
| Prickly-Offense 0xe947…ab96 | No | +200 | $190 | $190 | 1 | 05-31 00:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x722e…51af | No | +200 | $186 | $186 | 5 | 05-29 21:22 |
| Advanced-Petitioner 0x2e62…b22e | Yes | +178 | $2 | $22 | 4 | 07-19 00:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x4775…d205 | No | +176 | $170 | $170 | 1 | 07-02 06:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | +156 | $141 | $659 | 34 | 07-22 21:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x7820…fa12 | No | +143 | $137 | $137 | 7 | 07-25 00:00 |
| Complete-Novel 0x60fd…89a9 | Yes | +131 | $8 | $66 | 11 | 06-02 15:28 |
| Extroverted-Narrative 0x9c48…b968 | No | +130 | $120 | $150 | 2 | 06-20 10:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xfac0…fdd8 | Yes | +121 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-30 21:22 |
| Genuine-Segment 0xd34b…0004 | No | +120 | $111 | $111 | 5 | 07-06 06:06 |
| Ultimate-Tomtom 0x3d68…db93 | Yes | +119 | $5 | $5 | 8 | 07-25 00:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xa15b…8ff7 | No | +115 | $111 | $111 | 1 | 06-09 11:43 |
| Obedient-Mini 0x3806…d265 | Yes | +110 | $7 | $21 | 2 | 07-07 03:59 |
| 0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781 0x6d65…3781 | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-31 22:55 |
| Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 4 | 07-26 16:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x1500…d35a | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 2 | 06-16 05:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b13…28df | No | +100 | $93 | $93 | 1 | 05-31 10:21 |
| Plush-Dirt 0x9d69…ab3a | No | +89 | $83 | $83 | 2 | 05-30 21:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x94e6…2d1f | Yes | +84 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-07 14:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x9ec4…2e6a | No | +80 | $75 | $75 | 2 | 07-23 15:38 |
| Snappy-Danger 0xe6c3…9ed6 | No | +74 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 05-30 18:31 |
| Interesting-Rest 0xd9b4…2d6c | Yes | +71 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-29 17:47 |
| Basic-Hamster 0x5824…69a9 | No | +70 | $65 | $65 | 1 | 05-29 14:24 |
| Fruitful-Promenade-Spirit 0xf031…2883 | No | +60 | $56 | $95 | 3 | 06-15 16:57 |
| Yellow-Alphabet 0x7e5e…7315 | Yes | +56 | $2 | $2 | 5 | 06-05 14:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x2cd1…ab90 | No | +56 | $54 | $54 | 2 | 07-22 12:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xae75…dcb7 | No | +53 | $51 | $51 | 2 | 06-16 05:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xbf53…415d | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 05-30 23:58 |
| New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | +52 | $50 | $50 | 4 | 07-06 03:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x8132…fe3c | No | +51 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-17 04:16 |
| Outlandish-Sideburns 0xb3ff…374f | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-03 09:14 |
| Hungry-Legging 0xfd1b…650b | No | +50 | $46 | $46 | 1 | 07-06 22:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x3641…0ff8 | No | +50 | $46 | $46 | 2 | 05-29 22:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x2943…33a5 | No | +49 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 07-23 15:38 |
| Colossal-Polliwog 0x052d…b892 | Yes | +45 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-17 02:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x4247…91c4 | Yes | +41 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-29 21:22 |
| Suspicious-Plane-Literate 0xba91…1f7f | Yes | +34 | $4 | $6 | 2 | 06-15 21:18 |
| Courteous-Dwell 0xe068…c5ea | Yes | +30 | $2 | $2 | 6 | 05-31 04:17 |
| Moral-Countryside 0xb1c9…bf22 | Yes | +27 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 15:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xc02d…6767 | Yes | +26 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-20 00:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xf2e8…e187 | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 10:15 |
| Quick-Witted-Artichoke 0xacc6…236d | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 16:42 |
| Open-Elevator 0xb8ed…3363 | Yes | +18 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-27 05:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xf156…8623 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-31 03:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | +16 | $1 | $2 | 4 | 06-12 22:54 |
| Rigid-Monitor 0x00b1…bf06 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-29 18:06 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 16:08:42 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x5230ad… |
| 07-26 16:08:42 | (anonymous) 0x9032…267b | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x5230ad… |
| 07-26 16:08:42 | (anonymous) 0x5871…7c2e | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x5230ad… |
| 07-26 13:34:40 | (anonymous) 0xcaf9…22de | No | SELL | 19 | 96¢ | $18 | 0x233f7e… |
| 07-26 13:34:40 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 19 | 96¢ | $18 | 0x233f7e… |
| 07-25 00:03:24 | Ultimate-Tomtom 0x3d68…db93 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x9dcff5… |
| 07-25 00:03:24 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x9dcff5… |
| 07-25 00:02:21 | Ultimate-Tomtom 0x3d68…db93 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x92e7fa… |
| 07-25 00:02:21 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x92e7fa… |
| 07-25 00:00:25 | Ultimate-Tomtom 0x3d68…db93 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x771444… |
| 07-25 00:00:25 | (anonymous) 0x7820…fa12 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x771444… |
| 07-24 13:50:22 | (anonymous) 0x7820…fa12 | No | BUY | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0xabf333… |
| 07-24 13:50:22 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xabf333… |
| 07-23 15:40:18 | (anonymous) 0x7820…fa12 | No | BUY | 19 | 96¢ | $18 | 0x147798… |
| 07-23 15:40:18 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 19 | 96¢ | $18 | 0x147798… |
| 07-23 15:38:01 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | SELL | 135 | 96¢ | $130 | 0x937b1a… |
| 07-23 15:38:01 | (anonymous) 0x2943…33a5 | No | BUY | 49 | 96¢ | $47 | 0x937b1a… |
| 07-23 15:38:01 | (anonymous) 0x9ec4…2e6a | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x937b1a… |
| 07-23 15:38:01 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 37 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x937b1a… |
| 07-23 15:38:01 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 19 | 96¢ | $18 | 0x937b1a… |
| 07-22 21:58:33 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xe872dd… |
| 07-22 21:58:33 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xe872dd… |
| 07-22 21:58:25 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x5477e6… |
| 07-22 21:58:25 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x5477e6… |
| 07-22 12:54:42 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc893a9… |
| 07-22 12:54:42 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc893a9… |
| 07-22 12:54:34 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc9fec9… |
| 07-22 12:54:34 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc9fec9… |
| 07-22 12:34:18 | (anonymous) 0x2cd1…ab90 | No | BUY | 51 | 96¢ | $49 | 0x5ac4b9… |
| 07-22 12:34:18 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x5ac4b9… |
| 07-22 12:34:18 | (anonymous) 0xbbf7…afa8 | No | SELL | 91 | 96¢ | $88 | 0x5ac4b9… |
| 07-22 11:56:18 | (anonymous) 0x2cd1…ab90 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x2c8a01… |
| 07-22 11:56:18 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x2c8a01… |
| 07-22 11:56:10 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x971629… |
| 07-22 11:56:10 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x971629… |
| 07-22 06:28:09 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xc1f7a2… |
| 07-22 06:28:09 | Glossy-Cream 0x8e6c…6ed0 | No | SELL | 18 | 96¢ | $17 | 0xc1f7a2… |
| 07-21 22:14:06 | (anonymous) 0xbbf7…afa8 | No | BUY | 91 | 96¢ | $88 | 0xe3fb1c… |
| 07-21 22:14:06 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 91 | 96¢ | $88 | 0xe3fb1c… |
| 07-20 21:54:51 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xec4fcc… |
| 07-20 21:54:51 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xec4fcc… |
| 07-20 21:54:45 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x075ba1… |
| 07-20 21:54:45 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x075ba1… |
| 07-20 17:01:03 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x56848e… |
| 07-20 17:01:03 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x56848e… |
| 07-20 17:00:54 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa528e8… |
| 07-20 17:00:54 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa528e8… |
| 07-20 10:01:55 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 104 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xc0283a… |
| 07-20 10:01:55 | Content-Neurobiologist 0x2e68…6898 | No | SELL | 104 | 96¢ | $100 | 0xc0283a… |
| 07-20 09:12:00 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf2b482… |
| 07-20 09:12:00 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf2b482… |
| 07-20 09:11:48 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xff398e… |
| 07-20 09:11:48 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xff398e… |
| 07-20 08:39:57 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc8af2b… |
| 07-20 08:39:57 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc8af2b… |
| 07-20 08:39:49 | (anonymous) 0x1316…b090 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x564be2… |
| 07-20 08:39:49 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x564be2… |
| 07-20 01:01:10 | Troubled-Fannypack 0x50ca…ac03 | No | BUY | 15 | 96¢ | $14 | 0xe9c063… |
| 07-20 01:01:10 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 15 | 96¢ | $14 | 0xe9c063… |
| 07-20 00:52:19 | (anonymous) 0x3304…906a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xcf9034… |
| 07-20 00:52:19 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xcf9034… |
| 07-20 00:52:06 | (anonymous) 0x3304…906a | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xab005d… |
| 07-20 00:52:06 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xab005d… |
| 07-20 00:49:10 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc99fde… |
| 07-20 00:49:10 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc99fde… |
| 07-20 00:49:03 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x46a1c3… |
| 07-20 00:49:03 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x46a1c3… |
| 07-20 00:36:48 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x50ae2d… |
| 07-20 00:36:48 | (anonymous) 0xc02d…6767 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x50ae2d… |
| 07-19 23:47:54 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x61dfec… |
| 07-19 23:47:54 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x61dfec… |
| 07-19 23:47:43 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x5a2b5d… |
| 07-19 23:47:43 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x5a2b5d… |
| 07-19 17:40:57 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x259519… |
| 07-19 17:40:57 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x259519… |
| 07-19 17:40:48 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xfc1bf2… |
| 07-19 17:40:48 | (anonymous) 0xe3ef…960b | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xfc1bf2… |
| 07-19 17:31:13 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb05e5b… |
| 07-19 17:31:13 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb05e5b… |
| 07-19 17:31:03 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0xf306f1… |
| 07-19 17:31:03 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf306f1… |
| 07-19 17:31:03 | (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf306f1… |
| 07-19 17:30:57 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x994afe… |
| 07-19 17:30:57 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x994afe… |
| 07-19 17:30:40 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x9e15cf… |
| 07-19 17:30:40 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x9e15cf… |
| 07-19 16:03:52 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x58dac3… |
| 07-19 16:03:52 | (anonymous) 0x1b73…cbb4 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x58dac3… |
| 07-19 16:03:45 | (anonymous) 0x1b73…cbb4 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x9e0328… |
| 07-19 16:03:45 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x9e0328… |
| 07-19 14:26:18 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 16 | 96¢ | $15 | 0x83d01e… |
| 07-19 14:26:18 | Common-Attribute 0xfd76…6c23 | No | BUY | 16 | 96¢ | $15 | 0x83d01e… |
| 07-19 13:20:52 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xf4e4a8… |
| 07-19 13:20:52 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf4e4a8… |
| 07-19 13:20:42 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xb939b3… |
| 07-19 13:20:42 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xb939b3… |
| 07-19 13:11:31 | (anonymous) 0x1b73…cbb4 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xea7203… |
| 07-19 13:11:31 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xea7203… |
| 07-19 13:11:24 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb5c603… |
| 07-19 13:11:24 | (anonymous) 0x1b73…cbb4 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xb5c603… |