Realized P&L
+$472
Unrealized P&L
+$125
Hit rate
79.7%
Resolved
40
Trades
59,062
lifetime
Volume
$129.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$1.29K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 18:26
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 14 days
Categories
Other
48% 24% $-93
Politics
41% 33% +$579
Sports
5% 0% $-5
Tech
4%
Crypto
2%
Pop-Culture
0% 50% $-9
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 242 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +510 $467 86¢ $439 $-28 07-01 23:26
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +560 $20 14¢ $78 +$58 07-18 21:52
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes -116 $-32 64¢ $-74 $-42 07-02 00:52
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? No -60 $-50 88¢ $-53 $-3 07-09 01:25
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,658 $-44 $-51 $-7 07-15 14:40
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? No +48 $45 96¢ $46 +$1 06-23 17:42
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,327 $-19 $42 +$61 07-12 09:39
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No -50 $-39 78¢ $-39 +$0 07-02 00:43
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes +400 $48 $36 $-12 07-18 02:56
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +50 $34 70¢ $35 +$1 06-27 04:35
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes -400 $-34 $-34 +$0 07-08 10:46
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? Yes -50 $-30 65¢ $-32 $-2 07-18 11:25
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026? Yes -333 $-73 $-25 +$47 07-02 00:43
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes -266 $-27 10¢ $-25 +$1 07-15 10:16
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $26 24¢ $24 $-2 07-12 02:26
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes +160 $20 12¢ $19 $-1 07-17 10:24
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +20 $19 95¢ $19 +$0 06-29 20:38
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes -60 $-36 32¢ $-19 +$17 07-18 15:14
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes -50 $-29 37¢ $-18 +$10 07-08 12:46
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +20 $18 92¢ $18 +$0 06-08 19:24
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes +20 $18 92¢ $18 +$1 06-23 15:40
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? Yes +100 $19 18¢ $18 $-1 07-14 09:29
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No -20 $-17 90¢ $-18 $-1 07-02 01:15
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes +149 $-13 12¢ $17 +$30 07-19 07:13
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes -340 $-21 $-17 +$4 07-14 21:24
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? Yes +229 $18 $16 $-2 07-16 19:54
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? Yes +50 $17 32¢ $16 $-1 07-08 11:17
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +20 $14 76¢ $15 +$1 07-06 02:07
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes +200 $26 $15 $-11 05-30 16:12
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +50 $12 30¢ $15 +$3 07-04 20:32