Realized P&L
+$472
Unrealized P&L
+$36
Hit rate
79.7%
Resolved
40
Trades
56,320
lifetime
Volume
$107.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$595
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 21:41
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 14 days
Categories
Other
46% 24% $-93
Politics
45% 33% +$579
Sports
6% 0% $-5
Crypto
2%
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0% 50% $-9
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 2009 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $91 98¢ $98 +$6 06-03 05:33
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Yes +50 $47 97¢ $48 +$1 06-09 02:10
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No +40 $37 87¢ $35 $-2 06-09 09:16
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes -86 $-51 40¢ $-34 +$17 05-29 23:52
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $31 82¢ $33 +$2 06-01 19:11
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Yes -233 $-19 13¢ $-30 $-11 06-07 20:30
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes +200 $26 15¢ $30 +$4 05-30 16:12
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? Yes +220 $25 12¢ $26 +$1 06-06 19:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes +400 $26 $22 $-4 06-06 09:56
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +120 $23 18¢ $22 $-1 06-09 06:21
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes +400 $23 $21 $-2 06-08 20:43
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +20 $18 91¢ $18 +$0 06-08 19:24
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -440 $-18 $-17 +$1 06-09 09:29
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Yes +205 $16 $16 +$0 06-08 11:12
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No +70 $5 20¢ $14 +$9 06-03 16:10
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Yes +40 $4 34¢ $14 +$10 06-07 20:44
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes -211 $-14 $-11 +$2 05-28 14:57
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No -13 $-11 90¢ $-11 $-1 05-28 21:43
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? No +437 $15 $10 $-5 06-05 08:19
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes +100 $13 10¢ $10 $-3 06-07 21:25
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes +50 $8 18¢ $9 +$1 06-08 11:43
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Yes +80 $11 11¢ $8 $-2 06-02 16:17
Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7? Yes +25 $9 33¢ $8 $-1 06-01 17:14
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes +50 $8 16¢ $8 $-0 06-03 19:09
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +40 $6 19¢ $8 +$2 06-08 22:24
Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? Yes +80 $7 10¢ $8 +$1 06-09 19:51
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? No +60 $7 12¢ $7 $-1 06-09 09:45
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Yes -150 $-14 $-7 +$7 05-29 22:25
Felix Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes -99 $-8 $-6 +$1 06-08 19:04
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Yes +50 $2 12¢ $6 +$4 06-02 16:10