Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$861
Trades
35
Unique wallets
14
Liquidity
$2,128
Latest YES mid
15¢
Latest NO mid
86¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-03
last 06-15 01:48
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $76 | $349 | $273 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | — | $17 | $17 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 6 | $48 | $138 | $90 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $15 | — | +$15 |
| Median | 1 | — | $3 | $3 |
| Below median | 5 | $32 | $275 | $243 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $7 | $158 | $152 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $60 | — | +$60 |
| unranked | 3 | $10 | $67 | $57 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x04dc…2387 | Yes | +400 | $60 | $60 | 1 | 06-06 15:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x8393…f0ae | No | +186 | $156 | $156 | 2 | 06-06 15:45 |
| Female-Fourths 0xe308…309c | Yes | +100 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-11 09:35 |
| Unfinished-Belt 0xae91…0f69 | No | +100 | $85 | $85 | 2 | 06-11 09:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x4b30…52e4 | No | +59 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-05 14:55 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +40 | $34 | $34 | 2 | 06-11 09:35 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-05 15:46 |
| Rotating-Markup 0x9102…8b85 | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-15 01:48 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 01:48:06 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0x36ea9a… |
| 06-15 01:48:06 | Rotating-Markup 0x9102…8b85 | No | BUY | 3 | 86¢ | $3 | 0x36ea9a… |
| 06-11 09:35:03 | Female-Fourths 0xe308…309c | Yes | BUY | 100 | 15¢ | $15 | 0x2f508b… |
| 06-11 09:35:03 | Unfinished-Belt 0xae91…0f69 | No | BUY | 79 | 85¢ | $67 | 0x2f508b… |
| 06-11 09:35:03 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0x2f508b… |
| 06-11 09:35:03 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 15¢ | $0 | 0x2f508b… |
| 06-11 08:30:13 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x72e192… |
| 06-11 08:30:13 | Unfinished-Belt 0xae91…0f69 | No | BUY | 21 | 85¢ | $18 | 0x72e192… |
| 06-06 15:45:18 | (anonymous) 0x8393…f0ae | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0xcde8df… |
| 06-06 15:45:18 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | No | SELL | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0xcde8df… |
| 06-06 15:44:10 | (anonymous) 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 166 | 84¢ | $140 | 0x703bd2… |
| 06-06 15:44:10 | (anonymous) 0x8393…f0ae | No | BUY | 166 | 84¢ | $140 | 0x703bd2… |
| 06-06 15:44:07 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xc7b2c1… |
| 06-06 15:44:07 | (anonymous) 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xc7b2c1… |
| 06-06 15:43:48 | (anonymous) 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xcf97ea… |
| 06-06 15:43:48 | (anonymous) 0x168f…9e00 | No | BUY | 186 | 85¢ | $158 | 0xcf97ea… |
| 06-06 15:43:48 | (anonymous) 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 15¢ | $15 | 0xcf97ea… |
| 06-06 15:43:48 | (anonymous) 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 15¢ | $7 | 0xcf97ea… |
| 06-06 15:43:48 | (anonymous) 0x04dc…2387 | Yes | BUY | 400 | 15¢ | $60 | 0xcf97ea… |
| 06-05 18:32:57 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 14¢ | $7 | 0x782c98… |
| 06-05 18:32:57 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 14¢ | $7 | 0x782c98… |
| 06-05 16:13:49 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 14¢ | $6 | 0x0e4c6d… |
| 06-05 16:13:49 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 14¢ | $6 | 0x0e4c6d… |
| 06-05 15:48:25 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 14¢ | $6 | 0x5b8e2e… |
| 06-05 15:48:25 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 14¢ | $6 | 0x5b8e2e… |
| 06-05 15:46:22 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xc2b227… |
| 06-05 15:46:22 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 15¢ | $4 | 0xc2b227… |
| 06-05 15:46:22 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 90 | 15¢ | $14 | 0xc2b227… |
| 06-05 15:46:22 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 15¢ | $7 | 0xc2b227… |
| 06-05 14:55:24 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 59 | 15¢ | $9 | 0xa8fd6e… |
| 06-05 14:55:24 | (anonymous) 0x4b30…52e4 | No | BUY | 59 | 85¢ | $50 | 0xa8fd6e… |
| 06-03 05:04:54 | Quarterly-Humidity 0xd6fa…4f2d | No | SELL | 2 | 84¢ | $2 | 0x31a23f… |
| 06-03 05:04:54 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 16¢ | $0 | 0x31a23f… |
| 06-03 05:04:43 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xbf04b4… |
| 06-03 05:04:43 | Quarterly-Humidity 0xd6fa…4f2d | Yes | SELL | 21 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xbf04b4… |