Unfinished-Belt 0xae91ec…1f0f69
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Realized P&L
-$8
Unrealized P&L
+$113
Hit rate
15.2%
Resolved
10
Trades
840
lifetime
Volume
$8.78K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$1.40K
27 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-29 14:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Other
77% 29% $-5
Tech
17% — —
Sports
5% 67% $-3
Crypto
0% — —
Politics
0% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
66 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No -160 $-149 96¢ $-153 $-4 05-30 12:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +144 $125 100¢ $144 +$19 06-13 15:33
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No -139 $-138 100¢ $-139 $-1 06-18 17:03
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +100 $85 86¢ $86 +$1 06-11 09:35
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No -86 $-74 97¢ $-84 $-10 06-07 19:11
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +69 $50 90¢ $62 +$12 06-24 08:48
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +91 $59 68¢ $62 +$2 06-19 12:35
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +60 $12 97¢ $58 +$46 06-09 08:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +83 $60 68¢ $56 $-4 06-10 20:22
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +57 $42 99¢ $56 +$14 06-01 22:45
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No -54 $-53 100¢ $-54 $-1 06-14 09:53
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +55 $50 90¢ $50 $-0 06-18 17:00
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +55 $50 90¢ $49 $-1 06-29 14:32
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +43 $32 99¢ $43 +$11 06-03 17:06
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes -43 $-42 96¢ $-41 +$0 06-15 20:06
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +40 $26 99¢ $40 +$14 06-04 11:43
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes +60 $50 64¢ $38 $-12 06-10 20:30
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +32 $13 100¢ $32 +$19 06-09 09:28
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +30 $26 99¢ $30 +$4 05-30 16:13
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes +56 $30 51¢ $28 $-2 06-10 20:28
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31? No +27 $25 92¢ $25 $-0 06-28 14:30
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No -22 $-21 100¢ $-22 $-1 05-30 08:24
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No +21 $20 100¢ $21 +$1 06-11 23:14
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No -12 $-11 94¢ $-11 $-1 05-30 12:28
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No -11 $-10 94¢ $-11 $-0 05-30 12:28
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +6 $5 84¢ $5 +$0 05-29 10:57
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +8 $1 56¢ $4 +$3 06-24 08:50