Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$3,399
$182 in 24h
Trades
147
Unique wallets
43
Liquidity
$3,224
Latest YES mid
32¢
Latest NO mid
68¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-14 16:05
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+20.3¢
(top1%: 60% YES on $405
vs crowd: 39% YES on $2.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $396 | $208 | +$188 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 14 | $268 | $396 | $129 |
| 🐟 Fish | 10 | $141 | $682 | $541 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 11 | $83 | $76 | +$7 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $242 | $163 | +$79 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $65 | $30 | +$35 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $75 | $11 | +$64 |
| Median | 4 | $51 | $14 | +$36 |
| Below median | 7 | $77 | $805 | $727 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $20 | — | +$20 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 7 | $103 | $54 | +$49 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 7 | $177 | $14 | +$163 |
| unranked | 7 | $78 | $270 | $192 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | +491 | $335 | $995 | 9 | 06-14 16:05 |
| Few-Apparel 0x09e6…24a1 | No | +464 | $264 | $264 | 2 | 06-02 23:03 |
| Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | +244 | $90 | $394 | 3 | 06-13 11:56 |
| Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | +244 | $163 | $163 | 3 | 06-13 11:56 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +232 | $47 | $47 | 7 | 06-13 21:36 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +193 | $63 | $63 | 12 | 06-13 21:36 |
| Female-Fourths 0xe308…309c | Yes | +184 | $64 | $64 | 3 | 06-11 10:48 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +160 | $57 | $57 | 4 | 06-04 03:31 |
| Guilty-Spring 0x04dc…2387 | Yes | +154 | $44 | $44 | 1 | 06-01 15:02 |
| Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | +114 | $34 | $88 | 9 | 06-13 21:36 |
| Evil-Bronchitis 0x32e5…931a | Yes | +112 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 05-31 05:51 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +95 | $30 | $30 | 4 | 06-13 11:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xf0f6…3836 | No | +74 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-13 21:36 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +60 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 06-02 12:52 |
| Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | Yes | +60 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-13 11:55 |
| Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | +48 | $16 | $60 | 5 | 06-11 23:02 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +46 | $30 | $30 | 3 | 06-11 10:48 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +40 | $38 | $97 | 8 | 06-11 10:48 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +34 | $8 | $107 | 5 | 06-13 11:55 |
| Whispered-Diary 0xb260…9d59 | Yes | +31 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-04 16:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | +25 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 05-29 22:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +25 | $6 | $9 | 2 | 06-01 19:05 |
| Homely-Field 0x51f2…38ef | Yes | +20 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 05-28 17:51 |
| Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | No | +20 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-02 10:43 |
| Orderly-Dentist 0xe4ca…1383 | Yes | +11 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-04 07:23 |
| Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | No | +8 | $5 | $5 | 3 | 06-13 11:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xae73…09fa | No | +4 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-02 12:52 |
| Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $5 | 2 | 06-04 03:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x926d…a15b | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-13 12:02 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 16:05:37 | Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | SELL | 20 | 69¢ | $14 | 0x7667bb… |
| 06-14 16:05:37 | Frequent-Vineyard 0x317b…a53b | Yes | SELL | 20 | 31¢ | $6 | 0x7667bb… |
| 06-13 21:36:34 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 32¢ | $6 | 0xbe5b85… |
| 06-13 21:36:34 | Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | SELL | 14 | 69¢ | $10 | 0xbe5b85… |
| 06-13 21:36:34 | (anonymous) 0xf0f6…3836 | No | BUY | 74 | 68¢ | $50 | 0xbe5b85… |
| 06-13 21:36:34 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0xbe5b85… |
| 06-13 21:36:34 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0xbe5b85… |
| 06-13 12:02:12 | (anonymous) 0x926d…a15b | Yes | SELL | 1 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x61560f… |
| 06-13 12:02:12 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x61560f… |
| 06-13 11:59:09 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xc5d821… |
| 06-13 11:59:09 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xc5d821… |
| 06-13 11:58:16 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 2 | 33¢ | $1 | 0x8c5828… |
| 06-13 11:58:16 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | No | BUY | 2 | 67¢ | $1 | 0x8c5828… |
| 06-13 11:57:07 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | No | BUY | 3 | 69¢ | $2 | 0x5a837c… |
| 06-13 11:57:07 | Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | SELL | 3 | 69¢ | $2 | 0x5a837c… |
| 06-13 11:56:57 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 32¢ | $6 | 0x1b72fd… |
| 06-13 11:56:57 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 32¢ | $10 | 0x1b72fd… |
| 06-13 11:56:57 | Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | SELL | 341 | 69¢ | $235 | 0x1b72fd… |
| 06-13 11:56:57 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | SELL | 488 | 31¢ | $152 | 0x1b72fd… |
| 06-13 11:56:15 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 32¢ | $6 | 0x7260bf… |
| 06-13 11:56:15 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | No | BUY | 3 | 69¢ | $2 | 0x21a2b9… |
| 06-13 11:56:15 | Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | SELL | 3 | 69¢ | $2 | 0x21a2b9… |
| 06-13 11:56:15 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 50 | 68¢ | $34 | 0x7260bf… |
| 06-13 11:56:15 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 32¢ | $10 | 0x7260bf… |
| 06-13 11:55:54 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 100 | 67¢ | $67 | 0x485b8f… |
| 06-13 11:55:54 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0x485b8f… |
| 06-13 11:55:54 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 33¢ | $20 | 0x485b8f… |
| 06-13 11:55:54 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0x485b8f… |
| 06-13 11:55:40 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 34¢ | $7 | 0xed0163… |
| 06-13 11:55:40 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 34¢ | $7 | 0xed0163… |
| 06-13 11:55:40 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 94 | 66¢ | $62 | 0xed0163… |
| 06-13 11:55:40 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 34¢ | $7 | 0xed0163… |
| 06-13 11:55:40 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 34¢ | $12 | 0xed0163… |
| 06-11 23:02:37 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 34¢ | $7 | 0xb524cf… |
| 06-11 23:02:37 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | BUY | 48 | 34¢ | $16 | 0xb524cf… |
| 06-11 23:02:37 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 34¢ | $7 | 0xb524cf… |
| 06-11 23:02:37 | Proper-Parrot 0x4c86…9784 | Yes | SELL | 108 | 34¢ | $37 | 0xb524cf… |
| 06-11 23:02:37 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 34¢ | $7 | 0xb524cf… |
| 06-11 10:48:52 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 64¢ | $13 | 0xca242f… |
| 06-11 10:48:52 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 36¢ | $2 | 0xca242f… |
| 06-11 10:48:52 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 19 | 64¢ | $12 | 0xca242f… |
| 06-11 10:48:52 | Female-Fourths 0xe308…309c | Yes | BUY | 44 | 36¢ | $16 | 0xca242f… |
| 06-11 10:13:34 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x5f3a03… |
| 06-11 10:13:34 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 5 | 67¢ | $3 | 0x5f3a03… |
| 06-11 09:44:00 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | Yes | SELL | 36 | 32¢ | $12 | 0x15ee9e… |
| 06-11 09:44:00 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 32¢ | $9 | 0x15ee9e… |
| 06-11 09:44:00 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 7 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x15ee9e… |
| 06-11 09:43:27 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 13 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x9d7b5f… |
| 06-11 09:43:27 | Gracious-Cayenne 0x582a…7bb2 | Yes | SELL | 33 | 32¢ | $11 | 0x9d7b5f… |
| 06-11 09:43:27 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 32¢ | $6 | 0x9d7b5f… |
| 06-11 09:33:42 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | SELL | 24 | 33¢ | $8 | 0xf900b3… |
| 06-11 09:33:42 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 15 | 67¢ | $10 | 0xf900b3… |
| 06-11 09:33:42 | Female-Fourths 0xe308…309c | Yes | BUY | 39 | 33¢ | $13 | 0xf900b3… |
| 06-11 07:51:45 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | Yes | SELL | 20 | 34¢ | $7 | 0xed9b95… |
| 06-11 07:51:45 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 34¢ | $7 | 0xed9b95… |
| 06-11 07:49:01 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | BUY | 24 | 34¢ | $8 | 0xe9ac8b… |
| 06-11 07:49:01 | Basic-Stitcher 0x52fd…2ab7 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 34¢ | $15 | 0xe9ac8b… |
| 06-11 07:49:01 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 34¢ | $7 | 0xe9ac8b… |
| 06-09 16:00:01 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | No | SELL | 7 | 63¢ | $4 | 0x935950… |
| 06-09 16:00:01 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 7 | 63¢ | $4 | 0x935950… |
| 06-09 12:52:37 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 54 | 35¢ | $19 | 0x7d6c1c… |
| 06-09 12:52:37 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 65¢ | $13 | 0x7d6c1c… |
| 06-09 12:52:37 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | No | BUY | 7 | 65¢ | $5 | 0x7d6c1c… |
| 06-09 12:52:37 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | SELL | 27 | 35¢ | $10 | 0x7d6c1c… |
| 06-04 16:00:57 | Whispered-Diary 0xb260…9d59 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 32¢ | $10 | 0x049aca… |
| 06-04 16:00:57 | Tailinks - 23518 0x6643…0109 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x049aca… |
| 06-04 16:00:57 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 68¢ | $14 | 0x049aca… |
| 06-04 07:23:54 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 31¢ | $3 | 0xefc1bb… |
| 06-04 07:23:54 | Orderly-Dentist 0xe4ca…1383 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 31¢ | $3 | 0xefc1bb… |
| 06-04 07:21:28 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 31¢ | $9 | 0x5c4cd8… |
| 06-04 07:21:28 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 31¢ | $6 | 0x5c4cd8… |
| 06-04 07:21:28 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 31¢ | $3 | 0x5c4cd8… |
| 06-04 03:32:37 | Tailinks - 23518 0x6643…0109 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 49¢ | $3 | 0xee208e… |
| 06-04 03:32:37 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 49¢ | $3 | 0xee208e… |
| 06-04 03:32:33 | (anonymous) 0x926d…a15b | Yes | BUY | 2 | 49¢ | $1 | 0x77cf0e… |
| 06-04 03:32:33 | Tailinks - 23518 0x6643…0109 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 49¢ | $1 | 0x77cf0e… |
| 06-04 03:32:30 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xdb7db2… |
| 06-04 03:32:30 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 32¢ | $6 | 0xdb7db2… |
| 06-04 03:32:30 | Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | BUY | 800 | 70¢ | $562 | 0xdb7db2… |
| 06-04 03:32:30 | Female-Fourths 0xe308…309c | Yes | BUY | 100 | 35¢ | $35 | 0xdb7db2… |
| 06-04 03:32:30 | Gracious-Cayenne 0x582a…7bb2 | No | SELL | 17 | 71¢ | $12 | 0xdb7db2… |
| 06-04 03:32:30 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | BUY | 563 | 28¢ | $158 | 0xdb7db2… |
| 06-04 03:32:30 | Gracious-Cayenne 0x582a…7bb2 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 33¢ | $11 | 0xdb7db2… |
| 06-04 03:32:30 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 36¢ | $11 | 0xdb7db2… |
| 06-04 03:32:30 | Basic-Stitcher 0x52fd…2ab7 | No | SELL | 12 | 71¢ | $8 | 0xdb7db2… |
| 06-04 03:32:30 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 20 | 65¢ | $13 | 0xdb7db2… |
| 06-04 03:31:22 | Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | BUY | 95 | 61¢ | $58 | 0x587378… |
| 06-04 03:31:22 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 95 | 39¢ | $37 | 0x587378… |
| 06-04 03:31:12 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 36¢ | $2 | 0xb5d333… |
| 06-04 03:31:12 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 36¢ | $2 | 0xb5d333… |
| 06-04 03:29:55 | Tailinks - 23518 0x6643…0109 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 40¢ | $8 | 0xbceeb4… |
| 06-04 03:29:55 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 41¢ | $11 | 0xbceeb4… |
| 06-04 03:29:55 | Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | BUY | 74 | 60¢ | $45 | 0xbceeb4… |
| 06-04 03:29:55 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 36¢ | $7 | 0xbceeb4… |
| 06-04 03:29:55 | Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 42¢ | $3 | 0xbceeb4… |
| 06-02 23:03:26 | Few-Apparel 0x09e6…24a1 | No | BUY | 20 | 53¢ | $11 | 0xde77a7… |
| 06-02 23:03:26 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 47¢ | $9 | 0xde77a7… |
| 06-02 20:33:43 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | SELL | 40 | 51¢ | $20 | 0x5d2334… |
| 06-02 20:33:43 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | SELL | 40 | 49¢ | $20 | 0x5d2334… |
| 06-02 20:26:57 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 51¢ | $10 | 0x48690e… |