Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$13,690
$182 in 24h
Trades
607
Unique wallets
110
Liquidity
$3,224
Latest YES mid
29¢
Latest NO mid
71¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-29 20:20
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+4.5¢
(top1%: 35% YES on $700
vs crowd: 30% YES on $9.0K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 13 | $859 | $899 | $41 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 32 | $606 | $4.1K | $3.5K |
| 🐟 Fish | 33 | $916 | $1.0K | $103 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 32 | $320 | $228 | +$92 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $242 | $458 | $216 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 8 | $233 | $1.8K | $1.6K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 7 | $295 | $35 | +$260 |
| Median | 6 | $19 | $608 | $589 |
| Below median | 18 | $244 | $1.2K | $982 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $58 | $83 | $25 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 13 | $183 | $348 | $165 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 9 | $458 | $836 | $378 |
| unranked | 41 | $969 | $893 | +$77 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | +1,499 | $404 | $681 | 44 | 07-25 04:30 |
| Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | No | +906 | $598 | $598 | 6 | 07-11 00:35 |
| CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | +812 | $545 | $1,684 | 28 | 07-29 12:23 |
| Spirited-Motorcar 0xe1b3…1426 | No | +713 | $498 | $498 | 11 | 07-10 23:50 |
| Decisive-Spokeswoman 0xc326…1db1 | No | +592 | $459 | $704 | 8 | 07-29 20:20 |
| Female-Fourths 0xe308…309c | Yes | +504 | $131 | $131 | 5 | 07-11 14:28 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +438 | $117 | $117 | 19 | 07-11 00:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | Yes | +405 | $122 | $130 | 3 | 07-25 06:15 |
| Junior-Shutdown 0x2412…f534 | Yes | +400 | $116 | $116 | 11 | 07-06 11:03 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +368 | $125 | $260 | 46 | 07-13 18:48 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +360 | $265 | $323 | 24 | 07-13 10:56 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +284 | $201 | $201 | 17 | 07-27 06:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x6f1b…eb22 | Yes | +262 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 07-17 17:23 |
| Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | +244 | $90 | $394 | 3 | 06-13 11:56 |
| Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | +244 | $131 | $786 | 6 | 07-10 00:58 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +200 | $70 | $70 | 6 | 07-01 08:12 |
| Guilty-Spring 0x04dc…2387 | Yes | +154 | $44 | $44 | 1 | 06-01 15:02 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +95 | $30 | $30 | 4 | 06-13 11:56 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +79 | $61 | $214 | 6 | 07-07 17:50 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +79 | $36 | $361 | 16 | 07-07 17:01 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +75 | $53 | $53 | 3 | 07-08 08:27 |
| Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | +74 | $52 | $52 | 11 | 07-10 00:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xf0f6…3836 | No | +74 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-13 21:36 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +73 | $53 | $53 | 5 | 07-28 21:55 |
| Idealistic-Valance 0x191e…ef6b | No | +69 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-27 14:12 |
| Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | +69 | $42 | $1,288 | 20 | 07-04 11:57 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +60 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 06-02 12:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xa099…8943 | Yes | +47 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-28 11:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xfd5a…aa7a | No | +46 | $33 | $33 | 8 | 07-10 23:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +41 | $12 | $21 | 4 | 06-28 11:39 |
| Whispered-Diary 0xb260…9d59 | Yes | +31 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-04 16:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x70c7…92fe | Yes | +25 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-28 02:07 |
| Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | +24 | $5 | $51 | 12 | 07-22 17:04 |
| Watchful-Production 0x2184…00df | No | +24 | $17 | $17 | 3 | 07-07 19:04 |
| Flawed-Meander 0x42b7…abff | No | +23 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 07-11 00:35 |
| Spherical-Fringe 0x04b3…1b7e | No | +21 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 07-23 06:51 |
| Homely-Field 0x51f2…38ef | Yes | +20 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 05-28 17:51 |
| Sandy-Wife 0x34d0…264e | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-16 08:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xbcba…4573 | Yes | +15 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-19 14:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x471c…9e94 | Yes | +11 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 07-25 06:13 |
| Orderly-Dentist 0xe4ca…1383 | Yes | +11 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-04 07:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x78d4…c133 | Yes | +10 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-21 21:12 |
| Friendly-Legislation 0xa9b7…f43c | Yes | +10 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 06-28 11:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-12 09:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +9 | $24 | $227 | 28 | 07-28 21:55 |
| Flawless-Turn 0xa937…4152 | No | +8 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-04 12:02 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +7 | $5 | $34 | 3 | 07-22 17:04 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +7 | $1 | $9 | 2 | 07-18 08:51 |
| Brave-Hummus 0x8673…4025 | No | +7 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 07-11 00:37 |
| Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | +5 | $4 | $13 | 3 | 07-29 20:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xa87f…864d | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-23 06:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-12 09:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-12 09:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-12 09:10 |
| Mindless-Replication 0x278f…e428 | No | +4 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-18 15:48 |
| Sharp-Landform 0x0446…cc69 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $5 | 2 | 06-04 03:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x926d…a15b | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-13 12:02 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 20:20:20 | Decisive-Spokeswoman 0xc326…1db1 | No | BUY | 7 | 70¢ | $5 | 0x167c6c… |
| 07-29 20:20:20 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | SELL | 7 | 70¢ | $5 | 0x167c6c… |
| 07-29 12:23:20 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | SELL | 153 | 72¢ | $110 | 0xb33058… |
| 07-29 12:23:20 | (anonymous) 0xad66…8b41 | Yes | SELL | 153 | 28¢ | $43 | 0xb33058… |
| 07-28 21:55:13 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 7 | 71¢ | $5 | 0x4c81c7… |
| 07-28 21:55:13 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 7 | 29¢ | $2 | 0x4c81c7… |
| 07-28 10:43:25 | Tired-Exterior 0x42aa…7d26 | No | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0x8a7777… |
| 07-28 10:43:25 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x8a7777… |
| 07-27 14:12:45 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 3 | 68¢ | $2 | 0xef6a67… |
| 07-27 14:12:45 | (anonymous) 0xdf0e…c02b | No | SELL | 3 | 68¢ | $2 | 0xef6a67… |
| 07-27 14:12:43 | Idealistic-Valance 0x191e…ef6b | No | BUY | 69 | 70¢ | $48 | 0xd24c18… |
| 07-27 14:12:43 | Unlucky-Jaguar 0x21a6…c753 | No | SELL | 40 | 70¢ | $28 | 0xd24c18… |
| 07-27 14:12:43 | (anonymous) 0xdf0e…c02b | No | SELL | 29 | 70¢ | $20 | 0xd24c18… |
| 07-27 10:19:54 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 7 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xcfe4b3… |
| 07-27 10:19:54 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | BUY | 7 | 70¢ | $5 | 0xcfe4b3… |
| 07-27 06:50:09 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 29 | 68¢ | $20 | 0x8f31cb… |
| 07-27 06:50:09 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 29 | 68¢ | $20 | 0x8f31cb… |
| 07-27 06:45:24 | Unlucky-Jaguar 0x21a6…c753 | No | BUY | 40 | 70¢ | $28 | 0xe222cd… |
| 07-27 06:45:24 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 29 | 69¢ | $20 | 0xe222cd… |
| 07-27 06:45:24 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 44 | 69¢ | $30 | 0xe222cd… |
| 07-27 06:45:24 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 10 | 30¢ | $3 | 0xe222cd… |
| 07-27 06:45:24 | (anonymous) 0xad66…8b41 | Yes | BUY | 153 | 31¢ | $47 | 0xe222cd… |
| 07-27 06:45:24 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0xe222cd… |
| 07-27 06:45:24 | Decisive-Spokeswoman 0xc326…1db1 | No | BUY | 10 | 69¢ | $7 | 0xe222cd… |
| 07-27 00:21:09 | (anonymous) 0xdf0e…c02b | No | SELL | 8 | 71¢ | $6 | 0xacefc2… |
| 07-27 00:21:09 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 29¢ | $2 | 0xacefc2… |
| 07-27 00:19:16 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xd385db… |
| 07-27 00:19:16 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 8 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xd385db… |
| 07-26 01:15:54 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 18 | 29¢ | $5 | 0x2fbaa0… |
| 07-26 01:15:54 | (anonymous) 0x2975…56e0 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 29¢ | $6 | 0x2fbaa0… |
| 07-26 01:15:54 | (anonymous) 0xdf0e…c02b | No | SELL | 3 | 71¢ | $2 | 0x2fbaa0… |
| 07-25 10:34:01 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 6 | 70¢ | $4 | 0x88d486… |
| 07-25 10:34:01 | (anonymous) 0x2975…56e0 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 30¢ | $6 | 0x88d486… |
| 07-25 10:34:01 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 15 | 30¢ | $4 | 0x88d486… |
| 07-25 06:15:01 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 15 | 29¢ | $4 | 0x304917… |
| 07-25 06:15:01 | (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | Yes | SELL | 15 | 29¢ | $4 | 0x304917… |
| 07-25 06:13:49 | (anonymous) 0x471c…9e94 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0xd8ed3a… |
| 07-25 06:13:49 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xd8ed3a… |
| 07-25 04:31:00 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 64 | 69¢ | $44 | 0x12be74… |
| 07-25 04:31:00 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 84 | 69¢ | $58 | 0x12be74… |
| 07-25 04:31:00 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0x12be74… |
| 07-25 04:30:57 | (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | Yes | BUY | 391 | 30¢ | $117 | 0xaa3e4f… |
| 07-25 04:30:57 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | SELL | 307 | 30¢ | $92 | 0xaa3e4f… |
| 07-25 04:30:57 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 84 | 70¢ | $59 | 0xaa3e4f… |
| 07-24 16:30:31 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 5 | 70¢ | $4 | 0xea40ae… |
| 07-24 16:30:31 | (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | Yes | BUY | 29 | 30¢ | $9 | 0xea40ae… |
| 07-24 16:30:31 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | SELL | 24 | 30¢ | $7 | 0xea40ae… |
| 07-24 11:29:01 | (anonymous) 0x2975…56e0 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 29¢ | $6 | 0x959de4… |
| 07-24 11:29:01 | Blue-Bend 0x9495…468f | No | SELL | 21 | 71¢ | $15 | 0x959de4… |
| 07-23 19:58:42 | (anonymous) 0x2975…56e0 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 31¢ | $7 | 0x48fb0a… |
| 07-23 19:58:42 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 21 | 69¢ | $14 | 0x48fb0a… |
| 07-23 06:51:16 | (anonymous) 0xba0f…1011 | No | SELL | 20 | 69¢ | $14 | 0x5437b0… |
| 07-23 06:51:16 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 20 | 69¢ | $14 | 0x5437b0… |
| 07-23 06:51:16 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 80 | 69¢ | $55 | 0xfdb3d3… |
| 07-23 06:51:16 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 80 | 69¢ | $55 | 0xfdb3d3… |
| 07-23 06:51:13 | Blue-Bend 0x9495…468f | No | SELL | 21 | 71¢ | $15 | 0x888406… |
| 07-23 06:51:13 | Decisive-Spokeswoman 0xc326…1db1 | No | BUY | 10 | 70¢ | $7 | 0x47805e… |
| 07-23 06:51:13 | Spherical-Fringe 0x04b3…1b7e | No | BUY | 21 | 71¢ | $15 | 0x888406… |
| 07-23 06:51:13 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0x47805e… |
| 07-23 06:51:13 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 57 | 69¢ | $39 | 0x47805e… |
| 07-23 06:51:13 | (anonymous) 0xba0f…1011 | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0x47805e… |
| 07-23 06:51:13 | (anonymous) 0xa87f…864d | No | BUY | 5 | 70¢ | $4 | 0x47805e… |
| 07-23 06:51:13 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 80 | 70¢ | $56 | 0x47805e… |
| 07-23 06:51:13 | Wonderful-Volatility 0x0739…aba8 | No | SELL | 223 | 70¢ | $156 | 0x47805e… |
| 07-23 06:51:13 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | SELL | 31 | 30¢ | $9 | 0x47805e… |
| 07-22 19:45:01 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 6 | 69¢ | $4 | 0x3b684b… |
| 07-22 19:45:01 | (anonymous) 0xba0f…1011 | No | SELL | 6 | 69¢ | $4 | 0x3b684b… |
| 07-22 19:44:57 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xc495ae… |
| 07-22 19:44:57 | (anonymous) 0xba0f…1011 | No | BUY | 6 | 70¢ | $4 | 0xc495ae… |
| 07-22 19:44:57 | Decisive-Spokeswoman 0xc326…1db1 | No | BUY | 6 | 70¢ | $4 | 0xc495ae… |
| 07-22 19:44:57 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | No | SELL | 17 | 70¢ | $12 | 0xc495ae… |
| 07-22 18:21:22 | (anonymous) 0xba0f…1011 | No | SELL | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0x22ef89… |
| 07-22 18:21:22 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | No | BUY | 17 | 70¢ | $12 | 0x22ef89… |
| 07-22 18:21:22 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 3 | 69¢ | $2 | 0x22ef89… |
| 07-22 18:21:19 | Blue-Bend 0x9495…468f | No | BUY | 43 | 75¢ | $32 | 0xd75d2d… |
| 07-22 18:21:19 | (anonymous) 0xba0f…1011 | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xd75d2d… |
| 07-22 18:21:19 | (anonymous) 0xdf0e…c02b | No | BUY | 43 | 75¢ | $32 | 0xd75d2d… |
| 07-22 18:21:19 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | SELL | 198 | 25¢ | $49 | 0xd75d2d… |
| 07-22 18:21:19 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 154 | 76¢ | $117 | 0xd75d2d… |
| 07-22 18:21:19 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 458 | 25¢ | $113 | 0xd75d2d… |
| 07-22 17:04:45 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 26 | 76¢ | $20 | 0x8f2031… |
| 07-22 17:04:45 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 26 | 76¢ | $20 | 0x8f2031… |
| 07-22 17:04:42 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xc3ec0e… |
| 07-22 17:04:42 | (anonymous) 0xba0f…1011 | No | SELL | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xc3ec0e… |
| 07-22 17:04:39 | (anonymous) 0x296d…96fb | No | SELL | 120 | 77¢ | $93 | 0xa2210a… |
| 07-22 17:04:39 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 7 | 78¢ | $6 | 0xa2210a… |
| 07-22 17:04:39 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 23¢ | $10 | 0xa2210a… |
| 07-22 17:04:39 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 23 | 22¢ | $5 | 0xa2210a… |
| 07-22 17:04:39 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 26 | 77¢ | $20 | 0xa2210a… |
| 07-22 17:04:39 | (anonymous) 0xba0f…1011 | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0xa2210a… |
| 07-22 09:23:48 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 23 | 78¢ | $18 | 0x8906da… |
| 07-22 09:23:48 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 22¢ | $5 | 0x8906da… |
| 07-21 19:20:31 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | No | SELL | 22 | 78¢ | $18 | 0xebdfbf… |
| 07-21 19:20:31 | CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | BUY | 22 | 78¢ | $18 | 0xebdfbf… |
| 07-20 13:51:16 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 21¢ | $5 | 0x610075… |
| 07-20 13:51:16 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 9 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x610075… |
| 07-20 13:51:16 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 21¢ | $3 | 0x610075… |
| 07-20 13:16:42 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 6 | 80¢ | $5 | 0x78ebdc… |
| 07-20 13:16:42 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0x78ebdc… |
| 07-20 13:16:42 | (anonymous) 0xec47…0c22 | No | SELL | 26 | 80¢ | $21 | 0x78ebdc… |