Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$18,756
$182 in 24h
Trades
784
Unique wallets
141
Liquidity
$3,224
Latest YES mid
29¢
Latest NO mid
71¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-19 15:40
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+8.4¢
(top1%: 35% YES on $700
vs crowd: 26% YES on $12.0K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 17 | $1.0K | $1.6K | $548 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 35 | $481 | $5.7K | $5.2K |
| 🐟 Fish | 46 | $1.1K | $1.3K | $207 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 43 | $559 | $345 | +$214 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $242 | $458 | $216 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 9 | $282 | $2.1K | $1.8K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $141 | $653 | $512 |
| Median | 11 | $215 | $646 | $431 |
| Below median | 21 | $244 | $1.3K | $1.1K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 9 | $74 | $96 | $23 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 17 | $181 | $1.3K | $1.1K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 9 | $458 | $1.1K | $682 |
| unranked | 58 | $1.3K | $1.1K | +$171 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | +1,419 | $377 | $734 | 58 | 08-19 15:04 |
| Golden-Unemployment 0x7365…64da | No | +1,229 | $796 | $796 | 2 | 08-14 06:46 |
| Spirited-Motorcar 0xe1b3…1426 | No | +1,160 | $802 | $802 | 16 | 08-19 15:40 |
| CompulsiveGambler 0xe0f1…c4bd | No | +980 | $660 | $1,798 | 30 | 08-04 12:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xbf76…02b8 | Yes | +768 | $274 | $274 | 8 | 08-14 06:47 |
| Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | +618 | $404 | $404 | 8 | 08-17 05:10 |
| Female-Fourths 0xe308…309c | Yes | +504 | $131 | $131 | 5 | 07-11 14:28 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +458 | $123 | $123 | 21 | 08-04 12:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | Yes | +405 | $122 | $130 | 3 | 07-25 06:15 |
| Junior-Shutdown 0x2412…f534 | Yes | +400 | $116 | $116 | 11 | 07-06 11:03 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +368 | $125 | $260 | 46 | 07-13 18:48 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +360 | $265 | $323 | 24 | 07-13 10:56 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +324 | $228 | $228 | 20 | 08-08 15:38 |
| Wilted-Burden-Survivor 0xd8d5…8935 | No | +300 | $201 | $201 | 1 | 08-08 15:38 |
| Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | +300 | $204 | $204 | 3 | 08-08 15:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x6f1b…eb22 | Yes | +262 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 07-17 17:23 |
| Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | +244 | $90 | $394 | 3 | 06-13 11:56 |
| Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | +244 | $131 | $786 | 6 | 07-10 00:58 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +200 | $70 | $70 | 6 | 07-01 08:12 |
| Guilty-Spring 0x04dc…2387 | Yes | +154 | $44 | $44 | 1 | 06-01 15:02 |
| Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | +116 | $81 | $81 | 16 | 08-06 11:34 |
| Slushy-Parrot 0x0615…836f | Yes | +100 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 08-03 16:10 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +95 | $30 | $30 | 4 | 06-13 11:56 |
| Physical-Cleric 0x84a6…29ce | Yes | +94 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 08-06 16:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ee4…4cca | Yes | +87 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 08-09 19:27 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +85 | $47 | $47 | 2 | 08-10 15:29 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +79 | $61 | $214 | 6 | 07-07 17:50 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +79 | $36 | $361 | 16 | 07-07 17:01 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +75 | $53 | $53 | 3 | 07-08 08:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xf0f6…3836 | No | +74 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-13 21:36 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +73 | $53 | $53 | 5 | 07-28 21:55 |
| Idealistic-Valance 0x191e…ef6b | No | +69 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-27 14:12 |
| Wrong-Apprehension 0xdf81…697d | No | +69 | $42 | $1,288 | 20 | 07-04 11:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xa099…8943 | Yes | +47 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-28 11:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xfd5a…aa7a | No | +46 | $33 | $33 | 8 | 07-10 23:50 |
| Watchful-Production 0x2184…00df | No | +35 | $24 | $24 | 5 | 08-19 14:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xc5d4…08fc | No | +34 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 08-08 15:38 |
| Whispered-Diary 0xb260…9d59 | Yes | +31 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-04 16:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x70c7…92fe | Yes | +25 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-28 02:07 |
| Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | +24 | $5 | $51 | 12 | 07-22 17:04 |
| Flawed-Meander 0x42b7…abff | No | +23 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 07-11 00:35 |
| Homely-Field 0x51f2…38ef | Yes | +20 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 05-28 17:51 |
| Flawed-Ship 0xc50c…3017 | Yes | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 08-08 16:11 |
| Sandy-Wife 0x34d0…264e | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-16 08:52 |
| Flawed-Ship 0xc50c…3017 | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 08-08 15:38 |
| Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | +19 | $13 | $13 | 4 | 08-10 15:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xbcba…4573 | Yes | +15 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-19 14:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x9de3…b489 | No | +15 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 08-14 06:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xf685…1ddc | No | +14 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 08-04 12:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +13 | $2 | $32 | 5 | 08-14 06:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x04ad…adb4 | No | +13 | $8 | $8 | 4 | 08-19 15:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x471c…9e94 | Yes | +11 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 07-25 06:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +11 | $24 | $266 | 44 | 08-19 15:04 |
| Orderly-Dentist 0xe4ca…1383 | Yes | +11 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-04 07:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x78d4…c133 | Yes | +10 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-21 21:12 |
| Friendly-Legislation 0xa9b7…f43c | Yes | +10 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 06-28 11:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | No | +10 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 08-16 17:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | +9 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 08-12 11:02 |
| Envious-Personnel 0x7e0f…708e | No | +8 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-15 13:01 |
| Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | +8 | $6 | $86 | 19 | 08-19 15:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-19 15:40:10 | (anonymous) 0x04ad…adb4 | No | BUY | 1 | 67¢ | $1 | 0x669d76… |
| 08-19 15:40:10 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | SELL | 1 | 67¢ | $1 | 0x669d76… |
| 08-19 15:40:03 | Spirited-Motorcar 0xe1b3…1426 | No | BUY | 4 | 66¢ | $3 | 0x5d2a6f… |
| 08-19 15:40:03 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | SELL | 4 | 66¢ | $3 | 0x5d2a6f… |
| 08-19 15:04:39 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 4 | 32¢ | $1 | 0xad8a60… |
| 08-19 15:04:39 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | BUY | 4 | 68¢ | $3 | 0xad8a60… |
| 08-19 15:04:33 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 2 | 33¢ | $1 | 0x375f98… |
| 08-19 15:04:33 | (anonymous) 0x04ad…adb4 | No | BUY | 2 | 67¢ | $1 | 0x375f98… |
| 08-19 15:04:31 | Spirited-Motorcar 0xe1b3…1426 | No | BUY | 0 | 66¢ | $0 | 0xd3b0b1… |
| 08-19 15:04:31 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | SELL | 0 | 66¢ | $0 | 0xd3b0b1… |
| 08-19 15:04:27 | (anonymous) 0x04ad…adb4 | No | BUY | 5 | 67¢ | $3 | 0xb12977… |
| 08-19 15:04:27 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0xb12977… |
| 08-19 15:04:25 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | SELL | 3 | 66¢ | $2 | 0xaa9c8c… |
| 08-19 15:04:25 | Spirited-Motorcar 0xe1b3…1426 | No | BUY | 3 | 66¢ | $2 | 0xaa9c8c… |
| 08-19 14:58:27 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 3 | 33¢ | $1 | 0xf8b93a… |
| 08-19 14:58:27 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | BUY | 3 | 67¢ | $2 | 0xf8b93a… |
| 08-19 14:58:21 | Watchful-Production 0x2184…00df | No | BUY | 2 | 67¢ | $1 | 0xbf54a0… |
| 08-19 14:58:21 | (anonymous) 0x04ad…adb4 | No | BUY | 5 | 67¢ | $3 | 0xfae47e… |
| 08-19 14:58:21 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0xfae47e… |
| 08-19 14:58:21 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 2 | 33¢ | $1 | 0xbf54a0… |
| 08-19 14:58:19 | Spirited-Motorcar 0xe1b3…1426 | No | BUY | 20 | 66¢ | $13 | 0x3ae633… |
| 08-19 14:58:19 | Serpentine-Merchant 0x3d70…e9b0 | No | SELL | 20 | 66¢ | $13 | 0x3ae633… |
| 08-18 13:36:55 | (anonymous) 0xe9ce…9061 | No | BUY | 3 | 67¢ | $2 | 0x55aa06… |
| 08-18 13:36:55 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 3 | 33¢ | $1 | 0x55aa06… |
| 08-17 05:10:16 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0xd33602… |
| 08-17 05:10:16 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 13 | 66¢ | $9 | 0xd33602… |
| 08-17 05:10:16 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 8 | 66¢ | $5 | 0xd33602… |
| 08-16 17:03:33 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 10 | 66¢ | $7 | 0x296a12… |
| 08-16 17:03:33 | (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | No | BUY | 10 | 66¢ | $7 | 0x296a12… |
| 08-16 05:37:18 | Blue-Bend 0x9495…468f | No | SELL | 1 | 64¢ | $1 | 0x96c318… |
| 08-16 05:37:18 | (anonymous) 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | BUY | 1 | 64¢ | $1 | 0x96c318… |
| 08-15 13:01:33 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 8 | 66¢ | $5 | 0x9b1279… |
| 08-15 13:01:33 | Envious-Personnel 0x7e0f…708e | No | BUY | 8 | 66¢ | $5 | 0x9b1279… |
| 08-14 21:24:28 | (anonymous) 0xa6b3…c1ea | No | BUY | 2 | 66¢ | $1 | 0xa53508… |
| 08-14 21:24:28 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 2 | 34¢ | $1 | 0xa53508… |
| 08-14 18:33:16 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | SELL | 3 | 64¢ | $2 | 0x09b38d… |
| 08-14 18:33:16 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | BUY | 3 | 64¢ | $2 | 0x09b38d… |
| 08-14 17:59:33 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 3 | 34¢ | $1 | 0xe63235… |
| 08-14 17:59:33 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | BUY | 3 | 66¢ | $2 | 0xe63235… |
| 08-14 06:47:03 | (anonymous) 0xbf76…02b8 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 35¢ | $3 | 0x30de35… |
| 08-14 06:47:03 | (anonymous) 0x9de3…b489 | No | BUY | 8 | 65¢ | $5 | 0x30de35… |
| 08-14 06:46:01 | (anonymous) 0xbf76…02b8 | Yes | BUY | 548 | 37¢ | $203 | 0xf87d94… |
| 08-14 06:46:01 | Golden-Unemployment 0x7365…64da | No | BUY | 500 | 63¢ | $315 | 0xf87d94… |
| 08-14 06:46:01 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0xf87d94… |
| 08-14 06:46:01 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | SELL | 28 | 37¢ | $10 | 0xf87d94… |
| 08-14 06:37:39 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 32 | 65¢ | $21 | 0x7846b2… |
| 08-14 06:37:39 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 35¢ | $7 | 0x7846b2… |
| 08-14 06:37:39 | (anonymous) 0xbf76…02b8 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 35¢ | $18 | 0x7846b2… |
| 08-13 18:06:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 7 | 68¢ | $5 | 0xd320cc… |
| 08-13 18:06:07 | (anonymous) 0x9de3…b489 | No | BUY | 7 | 68¢ | $5 | 0xd320cc… |
| 08-13 18:03:27 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 66¢ | $20 | 0xf71fe7… |
| 08-13 18:03:27 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 6 | 65¢ | $4 | 0xf71fe7… |
| 08-13 18:03:27 | Brave-Hummus 0x8673…4025 | No | SELL | 36 | 66¢ | $24 | 0xf71fe7… |
| 08-13 18:01:27 | Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | No | SELL | 758 | 66¢ | $500 | 0xb9bfe7… |
| 08-13 18:01:27 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | Yes | SELL | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xb9bfe7… |
| 08-13 18:01:27 | Golden-Unemployment 0x7365…64da | No | BUY | 729 | 66¢ | $481 | 0xb9bfe7… |
| 08-13 18:01:27 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 19 | 33¢ | $6 | 0xb9bfe7… |
| 08-13 12:04:46 | (anonymous) 0x33d6…a50a | No | SELL | 7 | 67¢ | $5 | 0xa34186… |
| 08-13 12:04:46 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 7 | 33¢ | $2 | 0xa34186… |
| 08-12 11:02:48 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | BUY | 9 | 69¢ | $6 | 0x31bb79… |
| 08-12 11:02:48 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 31¢ | $3 | 0x31bb79… |
| 08-12 10:39:00 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x76a581… |
| 08-12 10:39:00 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | SELL | 9 | 67¢ | $6 | 0x76a581… |
| 08-11 14:58:49 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | Yes | SELL | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x0f42bb… |
| 08-11 14:58:49 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 9 | 34¢ | $3 | 0x0f42bb… |
| 08-11 14:58:49 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | SELL | 14 | 66¢ | $9 | 0x0f42bb… |
| 08-10 15:43:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 25 | 31¢ | $8 | 0xd99174… |
| 08-10 15:43:15 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 31¢ | $8 | 0xd99174… |
| 08-10 15:29:51 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 33¢ | $8 | 0x933103… |
| 08-10 15:29:51 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 25 | 67¢ | $17 | 0x933103… |
| 08-10 15:02:58 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 2 | 34¢ | $1 | 0x47d100… |
| 08-10 15:02:58 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 5 | 67¢ | $3 | 0x47d100… |
| 08-10 15:02:58 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | SELL | 17 | 68¢ | $12 | 0x47d100… |
| 08-10 01:13:33 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | SELL | 1 | 66¢ | $1 | 0x42f7be… |
| 08-10 01:13:33 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 1 | 34¢ | $0 | 0x42f7be… |
| 08-10 00:39:04 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 10 | 69¢ | $7 | 0x793a29… |
| 08-10 00:39:04 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | BUY | 13 | 69¢ | $9 | 0x793a29… |
| 08-10 00:39:04 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 3 | 31¢ | $1 | 0x793a29… |
| 08-09 19:27:37 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 62 | 65¢ | $40 | 0x061d93… |
| 08-09 19:27:37 | (anonymous) 0x3ee4…4cca | Yes | BUY | 87 | 34¢ | $30 | 0x061d93… |
| 08-09 19:27:37 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0x061d93… |
| 08-09 19:27:37 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 67¢ | $3 | 0x061d93… |
| 08-09 19:27:37 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 15 | 34¢ | $5 | 0x061d93… |
| 08-09 17:39:28 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 17 | 31¢ | $5 | 0x6e32a8… |
| 08-09 17:39:28 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | SELL | 3 | 70¢ | $2 | 0x6e32a8… |
| 08-09 17:39:28 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | BUY | 20 | 69¢ | $13 | 0x6e32a8… |
| 08-08 21:54:45 | Live-Numismatist 0xdf3b…880a | No | SELL | 9 | 66¢ | $6 | 0x669534… |
| 08-08 21:54:45 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 66¢ | $3 | 0x669534… |
| 08-08 21:54:45 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 4 | 66¢ | $2 | 0x669534… |
| 08-08 19:23:58 | (anonymous) 0xbf76…02b8 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 31¢ | $9 | 0xf9f73e… |
| 08-08 19:23:58 | Cylindrical-Ale 0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 31¢ | $6 | 0xf9f73e… |
| 08-08 19:23:58 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 142 | 68¢ | $97 | 0xf9f73e… |
| 08-08 19:23:58 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 16 | 32¢ | $5 | 0xf9f73e… |
| 08-08 19:23:58 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | Yes | BUY | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0xf9f73e… |
| 08-08 19:23:58 | Brave-Hummus 0x8673…4025 | No | SELL | 41 | 67¢ | $28 | 0xf9f73e… |
| 08-08 19:23:58 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | Yes | BUY | 10 | 34¢ | $3 | 0xf9f73e… |
| 08-08 19:23:58 | Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | No | SELL | 20 | 68¢ | $14 | 0xf9f73e… |
| 08-08 16:56:42 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | No | SELL | 37 | 64¢ | $23 | 0x8c4f01… |
| 08-08 16:56:42 | Vibrant-Minority-Lace 0x74aa…2c3f | No | SELL | 100 | 64¢ | $64 | 0x8c4f01… |
| 08-08 16:56:42 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 137 | 64¢ | $87 | 0x8c4f01… |