Realized P&L
-$14.4K
Unrealized P&L
-$235
Hit rate
68.2%
Resolved
10,104
Trades
55,152
lifetime
Volume
$1.42M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$26
Open exposure
$215
28 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 07:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 300 days
Categories
Other
64% 67% -$10,052
Politics
21% 40% -$2,522
Sports
9% 45% -$603
Tech
4% 39% -$1,006
Crypto
2% 53% -$165
Pop-Culture
0% 44% -$52
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1208 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Brex IPO before 2027? No -48 -$47 99¢ $-48 -$1 04-30 00:40
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +50 $96 82¢ $41 -$55 09-21 17:04
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No -40 -$38 95¢ $-38 +$0 05-01 04:58
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No -20 -$20 100¢ $-20 $0 05-03 15:56
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? No -20 -$19 100¢ $-20 -$1 05-20 05:44
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No -20 -$19 99¢ $-20 $0 05-22 07:36
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No -20 -$18 96¢ $-19 -$1 07-18 12:50
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +50 $24 18¢ $9 -$14 09-21 18:14
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? No +0 $4 75¢ $0 -$4 09-30 03:27
iran oman hormuz agreement by october 31 No +0 $6 96¢ $0 -$6 10-14 12:37
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +0 $15 92¢ $0 -$15 10-15 09:26
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes +0 $26 44¢ $0 -$26 10-02 19:47
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +0 $7 84¢ $0 -$7 10-05 11:58
tyler robinson convicted of homicide No +0 $27 90¢ $0 -$27 10-09 10:59
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by october 31 No +0 $7 99¢ $0 -$7 08-02 05:20
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? No +0 $2 94¢ $0 -$2 10-08 23:18
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes +0 $1 92¢ $0 -$1 08-05 12:50
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? No +0 $9 46¢ $0 -$9 10-05 12:59
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? No +0 $3 84¢ $0 -$3 10-13 15:46
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +0 $1 66¢ $0 -$1 09-29 09:38
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? Yes +0 $6 30¢ $0 -$6 10-18 05:26
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $11 26¢ $0 -$11 10-25 12:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? No +0 $4 50¢ $0 -$4 10-03 08:32
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? No +0 $4 27¢ $0 -$4 09-29 07:12
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +0 $5 26¢ $0 -$5 10-08 18:42
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $18 12¢ $0 -$18 10-08 01:26
Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Yes +0 $3 16¢ $0 -$3 09-26 20:02
Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Yes +0 $3 15¢ $0 -$3 09-26 20:02