Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
open
Total volume
$3,752
Trades
133
Unique wallets
35
Liquidity
$2,697
Latest YES mid
7¢
Latest NO mid
93¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-30
last 06-17 13:02
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $29 | $401 | $372 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $33 | $360 | $327 |
| 🐟 Fish | 8 | $12 | $993 | $981 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 10 | $23 | $16 | +$7 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $1 | $452 | $451 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $10 | $232 | $222 |
| Median | 3 | — | $1 | $1 |
| Below median | 2 | $2 | $1 | +$1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $6 | — | +$6 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 8 | $36 | $363 | $328 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $5 | $165 | $160 |
| unranked | 11 | $38 | $555 | $518 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | +500 | $452 | $452 | 3 | 06-16 05:50 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +90 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-16 05:50 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +84 | $7 | $10 | 6 | 06-17 13:02 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +71 | $6 | $21 | 5 | 06-11 19:15 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-31 15:20 |
| Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | +30 | $2 | $16 | 13 | 06-17 13:02 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +28 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-17 13:02 |
| Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-16 05:50 |
| Grounded-Bath 0x63ac…5bfc | No | +16 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-16 08:57 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-16 05:50 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-01 22:55 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 13:02:28 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x735826… |
| 06-17 13:02:28 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 42 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x735826… |
| 06-17 13:02:28 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | SELL | 90 | 7¢ | $6 | 0x735826… |
| 06-17 13:02:28 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x735826… |
| 06-16 08:57:37 | Grounded-Bath 0x63ac…5bfc | No | BUY | 16 | 92¢ | $15 | 0x55ef88… |
| 06-16 08:57:37 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 16 | 92¢ | $15 | 0x55ef88… |
| 06-16 05:50:40 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x897d99… |
| 06-16 05:50:40 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x897d99… |
| 06-16 05:50:40 | Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | BUY | 200 | 93¢ | $185 | 0x897d99… |
| 06-16 05:50:40 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x897d99… |
| 06-16 05:50:40 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 22 | 92¢ | $20 | 0x897d99… |
| 06-16 05:50:40 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 90 | 7¢ | $6 | 0x897d99… |
| 06-16 05:50:40 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x897d99… |
| 06-14 23:59:00 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 81 | 91¢ | $74 | 0x9518a1… |
| 06-14 23:59:00 | Unique-Roundabout 0xa5fd…36d1 | Yes | SELL | 212 | 9¢ | $19 | 0x9518a1… |
| 06-14 23:59:00 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x9518a1… |
| 06-14 11:11:37 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xbad071… |
| 06-14 11:11:37 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 26 | 91¢ | $24 | 0xbad071… |
| 06-13 19:33:27 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 29 | 90¢ | $26 | 0x27de0a… |
| 06-13 19:33:27 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x27de0a… |
| 06-13 19:33:27 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 104 | 91¢ | $94 | 0x27de0a… |
| 06-13 09:25:12 | (anonymous) 0xf8f2…96cf | Yes | SELL | 84 | 8¢ | $7 | 0xd71642… |
| 06-13 09:25:12 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 84 | 92¢ | $77 | 0xd71642… |
| 06-12 11:23:00 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 2 | 90¢ | $1 | 0x6589eb… |
| 06-12 11:23:00 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x6589eb… |
| 06-12 11:21:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 2 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x0e194c… |
| 06-12 11:21:13 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 2 | 91¢ | $2 | 0x0e194c… |
| 06-11 21:53:04 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x72804c… |
| 06-11 21:53:04 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 12 | 90¢ | $11 | 0x72804c… |
| 06-11 19:57:21 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x7aea8a… |
| 06-11 19:57:21 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x7aea8a… |
| 06-11 19:24:27 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 10¢ | $3 | 0x6544ee… |
| 06-11 19:24:27 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x6544ee… |
| 06-11 19:24:27 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 28 | 90¢ | $26 | 0x6544ee… |
| 06-11 19:24:27 | Blind-Simplification 0x51b4…89b8 | Yes | SELL | 99 | 10¢ | $10 | 0x6544ee… |
| 06-11 19:24:27 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x6544ee… |
| 06-11 19:15:31 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 88¢ | $26 | 0xfed85f… |
| 06-11 19:15:31 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 43 | 12¢ | $5 | 0xfed85f… |
| 06-11 19:15:31 | Blind-Simplification 0x51b4…89b8 | Yes | BUY | 99 | 12¢ | $12 | 0xfed85f… |
| 06-11 19:15:31 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 27 | 12¢ | $3 | 0xfed85f… |
| 06-11 08:58:39 | Robust-Fox 0xdc17…c4ab | Yes | SELL | 10 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x10a0bc… |
| 06-11 08:58:39 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x10a0bc… |
| 06-10 08:08:16 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 74 | 91¢ | $67 | 0x187d55… |
| 06-10 08:08:16 | Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | BUY | 114 | 91¢ | $104 | 0x187d55… |
| 06-10 08:08:16 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 15 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x187d55… |
| 06-10 08:01:12 | Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | BUY | 186 | 88¢ | $163 | 0x34358a… |
| 06-10 08:01:12 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 30 | 88¢ | $26 | 0x34358a… |
| 06-10 08:01:12 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | SELL | 156 | 88¢ | $137 | 0x34358a… |
| 06-10 00:42:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 21 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x5a474f… |
| 06-10 00:42:15 | Thoughtful-Control 0xf38f…67ad | No | SELL | 21 | 87¢ | $19 | 0x5a474f… |
| 06-09 10:30:30 | Quarterly-Humidity 0xd6fa…4f2d | No | SELL | 0 | 87¢ | $0 | 0x7adfe1… |
| 06-09 10:30:30 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 0 | 13¢ | $0 | 0x7adfe1… |
| 06-09 00:42:01 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 11¢ | $4 | 0xa9e52a… |
| 06-09 00:42:01 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | SELL | 31 | 89¢ | $28 | 0xa9e52a… |
| 06-08 23:25:22 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 11¢ | $6 | 0x184f5c… |
| 06-08 23:25:22 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | SELL | 52 | 11¢ | $6 | 0x184f5c… |
| 06-08 11:46:34 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | No | SELL | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xbf5438… |
| 06-08 11:46:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xbf5438… |
| 06-08 10:15:46 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | SELL | 90 | 10¢ | $9 | 0xc96406… |
| 06-08 10:15:46 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 45 | 10¢ | $4 | 0xc96406… |
| 06-08 10:15:46 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 10¢ | $4 | 0xc96406… |
| 06-07 18:56:48 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 14 | 87¢ | $12 | 0xc467c1… |
| 06-07 18:56:48 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | No | SELL | 14 | 87¢ | $12 | 0xc467c1… |
| 06-07 18:56:45 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x0eb608… |
| 06-07 18:56:45 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | No | SELL | 5 | 87¢ | $4 | 0x0eb608… |
| 06-07 16:16:48 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | SELL | 1 | 87¢ | $1 | 0x0793eb… |
| 06-07 16:16:48 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 13¢ | $0 | 0x0793eb… |
| 06-07 16:16:30 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x77edfe… |
| 06-07 16:16:30 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 16 | 89¢ | $14 | 0x77edfe… |
| 06-07 16:16:30 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 65 | 90¢ | $59 | 0x77edfe… |
| 06-07 16:16:30 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | No | BUY | 20 | 89¢ | $18 | 0x77edfe… |
| 06-07 16:16:30 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 129 | 90¢ | $116 | 0x77edfe… |
| 06-07 12:43:48 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x679aaf… |
| 06-07 12:43:48 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x679aaf… |
| 06-07 09:20:36 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x11eb71… |
| 06-07 09:20:36 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x11eb71… |
| 06-07 09:18:37 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0xa90310… |
| 06-07 09:18:37 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0xa90310… |
| 06-07 09:13:27 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 46 | 90¢ | $41 | 0x766dc9… |
| 06-07 09:13:27 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 46 | 90¢ | $41 | 0x766dc9… |
| 06-07 09:13:25 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 14 | 91¢ | $12 | 0xa72c3a… |
| 06-07 09:13:25 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | SELL | 14 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xa72c3a… |
| 06-07 09:13:22 | (anonymous) 0x30b8…fbf3 | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x6b4788… |
| 06-07 09:13:22 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x6b4788… |
| 06-07 09:11:19 | Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | SELL | 100 | 92¢ | $92 | 0xde4558… |
| 06-07 09:11:19 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | BUY | 79 | 92¢ | $73 | 0xde4558… |
| 06-07 09:11:19 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xde4558… |
| 06-07 04:47:04 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 24 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xcc7155… |
| 06-07 04:47:04 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 24 | 92¢ | $22 | 0xcc7155… |
| 06-06 23:37:13 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | SELL | 52 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xd1a1e9… |
| 06-06 23:37:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 25 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xd1a1e9… |
| 06-06 23:37:13 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | BUY | 27 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xd1a1e9… |
| 06-06 23:27:30 | Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | BUY | 100 | 93¢ | $93 | 0x085a70… |
| 06-06 23:27:30 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 67 | 93¢ | $62 | 0x085a70… |
| 06-06 23:27:30 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 75 | 92¢ | $69 | 0x085a70… |
| 06-06 23:27:30 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 211 | 93¢ | $195 | 0x085a70… |
| 06-06 23:27:30 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 662 | 93¢ | $613 | 0x085a70… |
| 06-06 23:27:30 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x085a70… |
| 06-06 23:27:30 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | BUY | 189 | 92¢ | $175 | 0x085a70… |
| 06-04 19:47:10 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xa916d5… |