Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
open
Total volume
$14,314
Trades
447
Unique wallets
92
Liquidity
$2,697
Latest YES mid
15¢
Latest NO mid
85¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-30
last 08-20 17:23
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-0.3¢
(top1%: 8% YES on $20
vs crowd: 9% YES on $8.3K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 14 | $94 | $3.9K | $3.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 22 | $129 | $1.7K | $1.6K |
| 🐟 Fish | 27 | $444 | $1.7K | $1.2K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 29 | $57 | $228 | $171 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $2 | $18 | $17 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 9 | $18 | $763 | $745 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $14 | $572 | $559 |
| Median | 6 | $1 | $24 | $23 |
| Below median | 10 | $13 | $244 | $230 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 6 | $12 | $462 | $450 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 10 | $101 | $1.0K | $933 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $12 | $732 | $719 |
| unranked | 43 | $551 | $3.7K | $3.2K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | +1,035 | $27 | $761 | 14 | 08-07 05:17 |
| Prime-Witchhunt 0x2fe7…03e0 | No | +510 | $462 | $462 | 1 | 07-23 12:44 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +351 | $331 | $732 | 17 | 08-10 21:41 |
| Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | +301 | $271 | $633 | 4 | 06-19 22:58 |
| Mature-Fly 0x43ca…d04c | Yes | +169 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 08-03 04:58 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +124 | $112 | $112 | 7 | 08-07 01:01 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +121 | $8 | $8 | 3 | 08-12 12:49 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +114 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 08-12 14:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e48…1bf2 | Yes | +79 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-29 13:17 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | +75 | $13 | $14 | 2 | 07-27 20:05 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +70 | $66 | $66 | 5 | 08-06 11:11 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +60 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-29 16:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xae7d…058f | Yes | +50 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 08-12 12:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x9757…73e8 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 08-06 11:11 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +40 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-12 14:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +40 | $36 | $55 | 13 | 07-29 13:20 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +33 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-11 17:14 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $-3 | $30 | 17 | 08-12 12:49 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-31 15:20 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +21 | $1 | $28 | 19 | 08-12 14:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | +21 | $-1 | $4 | 8 | 07-29 10:05 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | +19 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 08-06 11:17 |
| Grounded-Bath 0x63ac…5bfc | No | +16 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-16 08:57 |
| Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-12 12:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x45f2…722e | No | +14 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 07-23 23:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | +9 | $2 | $9 | 6 | 08-20 17:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | Yes | +7 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 08-12 12:49 |
| Wordy-Doctrine 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-24 17:44 |
| United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | +1 | $1 | $19 | 4 | 07-27 20:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | +1 | $10 | $342 | 5 | 07-24 02:36 |
| Lone-Dibble 0x6eae…1916 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-05 05:54 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 17:23:45 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | SELL | 59 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x07626b… |
| 08-20 17:23:45 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | BUY | 90 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x07626b… |
| 08-20 17:23:45 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 31 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x07626b… |
| 08-12 14:39:33 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x127967… |
| 08-12 14:39:33 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x127967… |
| 08-12 14:39:33 | (anonymous) 0xe593…2c59 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x127967… |
| 08-12 14:13:42 | Leafy-Dragon 0x5006…48ca | Yes | SELL | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x8ad560… |
| 08-12 14:13:42 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xec4806… |
| 08-12 14:13:42 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x8ad560… |
| 08-12 14:13:42 | Leafy-Dragon 0x5006…48ca | Yes | SELL | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xec4806… |
| 08-12 13:20:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 104 | 3¢ | $4 | 0xdc4adc… |
| 08-12 13:20:06 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 56 | 95¢ | $54 | 0x692538… |
| 08-12 13:20:06 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x692538… |
| 08-12 13:20:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x692538… |
| 08-12 13:20:06 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | Yes | SELL | 106 | 4¢ | $5 | 0x692538… |
| 08-12 13:20:06 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | Yes | SELL | 104 | 3¢ | $4 | 0xdc4adc… |
| 08-12 12:49:10 | (anonymous) 0xc0b6…d8a1 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xf5023e… |
| 08-12 12:49:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xf5023e… |
| 08-12 12:49:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xf5023e… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | (anonymous) 0xae7d…058f | Yes | BUY | 50 | 6¢ | $3 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | (anonymous) 0x8439…8dae | No | SELL | 57 | 95¢ | $54 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | Shimmering-Reindeer 0xf6ea…0a00 | Yes | SELL | 572 | 6¢ | $34 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 40 | 7¢ | $3 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | Leafy-Dragon 0x5006…48ca | Yes | BUY | 50 | 6¢ | $3 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | (anonymous) 0xc0b6…d8a1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 32 | 95¢ | $30 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 73 | 7¢ | $5 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-12 12:49:09 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xa1cc0a… |
| 08-11 17:14:51 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | SELL | 53 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x9e6143… |
| 08-11 17:14:51 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | No | SELL | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x9e6143… |
| 08-11 17:14:51 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | BUY | 33 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x9e6143… |
| 08-11 17:14:45 | (anonymous) 0x2354…46e5 | No | SELL | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x021bd3… |
| 08-11 17:14:45 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x021bd3… |
| 08-11 17:14:42 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 120 | 95¢ | $114 | 0x7454d8… |
| 08-11 17:14:42 | Shimmering-Reindeer 0xf6ea…0a00 | Yes | BUY | 140 | 5¢ | $7 | 0x7454d8… |
| 08-11 17:14:42 | (anonymous) 0x2354…46e5 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x7454d8… |
| 08-10 21:47:15 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xdf6d32… |
| 08-10 21:47:15 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xdf6d32… |
| 08-10 21:47:12 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x9dfaf4… |
| 08-10 21:47:12 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x9dfaf4… |
| 08-10 21:47:09 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 60 | 95¢ | $57 | 0x8ede16… |
| 08-10 21:47:09 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 60 | 95¢ | $57 | 0x8ede16… |
| 08-10 21:47:06 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x8a7e24… |
| 08-10 21:47:06 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x8a7e24… |
| 08-10 21:41:19 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0xfed72f… |
| 08-10 21:41:19 | (anonymous) 0xc0b6…d8a1 | No | SELL | 40 | 95¢ | $38 | 0xfed72f… |
| 08-10 21:41:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 95¢ | $28 | 0xfed72f… |
| 08-10 21:41:16 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 60 | 96¢ | $57 | 0xa5859a… |
| 08-10 21:41:16 | (anonymous) 0xc0b6…d8a1 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0xa5859a… |
| 08-10 21:41:16 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0xa5859a… |
| 08-10 21:41:16 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xa5859a… |
| 08-10 21:41:16 | Shimmering-Reindeer 0xf6ea…0a00 | Yes | BUY | 432 | 5¢ | $19 | 0xa5859a… |
| 08-10 21:41:16 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 99 | 95¢ | $95 | 0xa5859a… |
| 08-10 21:41:16 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0xa5859a… |
| 08-10 21:41:16 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 151 | 4¢ | $7 | 0xa5859a… |
| 08-10 21:41:16 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0xa5859a… |
| 08-09 01:10:37 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc6fa86… |
| 08-09 01:10:37 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 28 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc6fa86… |
| 08-09 01:10:37 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc6fa86… |
| 08-09 01:10:37 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc6fa86… |
| 08-09 01:07:49 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 52 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x6dd572… |
| 08-09 01:07:49 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x6dd572… |
| 08-08 22:55:03 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 53 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xdc118a… |
| 08-08 22:55:03 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xdc118a… |
| 08-08 21:19:45 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 133 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x3727ca… |
| 08-08 21:19:45 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | Yes | SELL | 300 | 2¢ | $6 | 0x3727ca… |
| 08-08 21:19:45 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 167 | 2¢ | $4 | 0x3727ca… |
| 08-08 07:44:22 | (anonymous) 0xb275…6cb2 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3d847c… |
| 08-08 07:44:22 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x3d847c… |
| 08-07 15:44:04 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $8 | 0xa377dc… |
| 08-07 15:44:04 | Proud-Cloves 0xa602…1104 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xa377dc… |
| 08-07 12:34:06 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 28 | 92¢ | $26 | 0xc84fa6… |
| 08-07 12:34:06 | (anonymous) 0xe593…2c59 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 8¢ | $4 | 0xc84fa6… |
| 08-07 12:34:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 32 | 92¢ | $30 | 0xc84fa6… |
| 08-07 12:34:06 | Shimmering-Reindeer 0xf6ea…0a00 | Yes | SELL | 448 | 7¢ | $33 | 0xc84fa6… |
| 08-07 12:34:06 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xc84fa6… |
| 08-07 12:34:06 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xc84fa6… |
| 08-07 12:34:06 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | BUY | 7 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xc84fa6… |
| 08-07 12:34:06 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0xc84fa6… |
| 08-07 05:17:51 | (anonymous) 0x81f1…724d | No | SELL | 7 | 91¢ | $7 | 0xaf6b5b… |
| 08-07 05:17:51 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | SELL | 7 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xaf6b5b… |
| 08-07 01:01:11 | (anonymous) 0xe593…2c59 | No | SELL | 50 | 91¢ | $45 | 0x5fd586… |
| 08-07 01:01:11 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 91¢ | $27 | 0x5fd586… |
| 08-07 01:01:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0x5fd586… |
| 08-06 20:46:18 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $19 | 0x20d138… |
| 08-06 20:46:18 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 40 | 92¢ | $37 | 0x20d138… |
| 08-06 20:46:18 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x20d138… |
| 08-06 17:37:14 | (anonymous) 0x8439…8dae | No | BUY | 40 | 94¢ | $38 | 0xf9e300… |
| 08-06 17:37:14 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 0 | 94¢ | $0 | 0xf9e300… |
| 08-06 17:37:14 | (anonymous) 0xd62b…ceec | No | SELL | 40 | 94¢ | $38 | 0xf9e300… |
| 08-06 11:17:17 | (anonymous) 0x6cb1…0f6e | No | SELL | 40 | 94¢ | $38 | 0x576297… |
| 08-06 11:17:17 | (anonymous) 0x8439…8dae | No | BUY | 17 | 94¢ | $16 | 0x576297… |
| 08-06 11:17:17 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 23 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x576297… |
| 08-06 11:17:12 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xb54b15… |
| 08-06 11:17:12 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | SELL | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0xb54b15… |
| 08-06 11:17:11 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x77bdaf… |
| 08-06 11:17:11 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x77bdaf… |
| 08-06 11:17:05 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x650a57… |