Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
open
Total volume
$8,740
Trades
269
Unique wallets
74
Liquidity
$2,697
Latest YES mid
15¢
Latest NO mid
85¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-30
last 07-29 16:19
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 12 | $34 | $3.1K | $3.0K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 21 | $84 | $1.5K | $1.4K |
| 🐟 Fish | 20 | $418 | $1.3K | $899 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 21 | $52 | $45 | +$7 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 7 | $6 | $519 | $512 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $12 | $279 | $267 |
| Median | 6 | $0 | $24 | $24 |
| Below median | 8 | $12 | $130 | $118 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 5 | $6 | $462 | $456 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 10 | $62 | $954 | $892 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $7 | $329 | $322 |
| unranked | 31 | $483 | $3.2K | $2.7K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | +3,601 | $268 | $520 | 7 | 07-29 10:05 |
| Shimmering-Reindeer 0xf6ea…0a00 | No | +2,700 | $2,447 | $2,447 | 2 | 07-23 12:44 |
| Prime-Witchhunt 0x2fe7…03e0 | No | +510 | $462 | $462 | 1 | 07-23 12:44 |
| Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | +301 | $271 | $633 | 4 | 06-19 22:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e48…1bf2 | Yes | +79 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-29 13:17 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | +75 | $13 | $14 | 2 | 07-27 20:05 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +72 | $67 | $306 | 7 | 07-29 13:17 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +60 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-29 16:19 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +48 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 07-29 10:05 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +43 | $3 | $21 | 11 | 07-28 17:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +40 | $36 | $55 | 13 | 07-29 13:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x6cb1…0f6e | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-27 20:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-27 20:05 |
| Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-27 20:05 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-31 15:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | +25 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-29 16:19 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +24 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 07-28 21:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | +21 | $-1 | $4 | 8 | 07-29 10:05 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | +20 | $0 | $2 | 6 | 07-29 16:19 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +20 | $-2 | $26 | 13 | 07-29 16:19 |
| Grounded-Bath 0x63ac…5bfc | No | +16 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-16 08:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x45f2…722e | No | +14 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 07-23 23:33 |
| Proud-Cloves 0xa602…1104 | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-28 21:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xb275…6cb2 | Yes | +7 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-28 13:16 |
| Wordy-Doctrine 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-24 17:44 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-01 22:55 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +2 | $-1 | $108 | 7 | 07-28 13:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | Yes | +2 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-23 23:33 |
| United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | +1 | $1 | $19 | 4 | 07-27 20:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | +1 | $10 | $342 | 5 | 07-24 02:36 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 16:19:27 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 60 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x2c8a34… |
| 07-29 16:19:27 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | Yes | SELL | 125 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x2c8a34… |
| 07-29 16:19:27 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x2c8a34… |
| 07-29 16:19:27 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x2c8a34… |
| 07-29 16:19:27 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x2c8a34… |
| 07-29 13:20:11 | Likable-Mention 0x3c3e…5a86 | No | SELL | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0xbf7f20… |
| 07-29 13:20:11 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xbf7f20… |
| 07-29 13:17:33 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 44 | 94¢ | $41 | 0x752f60… |
| 07-29 13:17:33 | (anonymous) 0x7e48…1bf2 | Yes | BUY | 79 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x752f60… |
| 07-29 13:17:33 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x752f60… |
| 07-29 13:17:33 | Likable-Mention 0x3c3e…5a86 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x752f60… |
| 07-29 10:05:08 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | SELL | 0 | 100¢ | $0 | 0x0fce89… |
| 07-29 10:05:08 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0x0fce89… |
| 07-29 10:05:08 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x0fce89… |
| 07-29 10:05:08 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | SELL | 51 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x0fce89… |
| 07-29 10:05:08 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x0fce89… |
| 07-28 21:07:02 | Proud-Cloves 0xa602…1104 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xf16478… |
| 07-28 21:07:02 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 9 | 88¢ | $8 | 0xf16478… |
| 07-28 17:10:20 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x051a19… |
| 07-28 17:10:20 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x051a19… |
| 07-28 17:10:20 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 11 | 94¢ | $11 | 0x051a19… |
| 07-28 13:16:13 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 86¢ | $4 | 0xc2590e… |
| 07-28 13:16:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 2 | 87¢ | $2 | 0xc2590e… |
| 07-28 13:16:13 | (anonymous) 0xb275…6cb2 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xc2590e… |
| 07-28 11:12:04 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x6b9c2a… |
| 07-28 11:12:04 | (anonymous) 0xd62b…ceec | Yes | SELL | 50 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x6b9c2a… |
| 07-28 11:12:04 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 39 | 91¢ | $36 | 0x6b9c2a… |
| 07-28 05:47:55 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xc6a2fd… |
| 07-28 05:47:55 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 21 | 91¢ | $19 | 0xc6a2fd… |
| 07-28 05:07:28 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xe46985… |
| 07-28 05:07:28 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0xe46985… |
| 07-28 02:08:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x98fabc… |
| 07-28 02:08:06 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x98fabc… |
| 07-27 23:07:27 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0xf3b344… |
| 07-27 23:07:27 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xf3b344… |
| 07-27 23:07:27 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0xf3b344… |
| 07-27 23:07:27 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xf3b344… |
| 07-27 22:15:57 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0xdddd7d… |
| 07-27 22:15:57 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0xdddd7d… |
| 07-27 22:15:57 | (anonymous) 0xd38f…bf78 | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0xdddd7d… |
| 07-27 22:15:57 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xdddd7d… |
| 07-27 20:28:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0xca01b2… |
| 07-27 20:28:15 | Likable-Mention 0x3c3e…5a86 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xca01b2… |
| 07-27 20:05:03 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | SELL | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x2d8675… |
| 07-27 20:05:03 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x2d8675… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | (anonymous) 0x6cb1…0f6e | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | SELL | 8 | 83¢ | $7 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | SELL | 489 | 17¢ | $82 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | Yes | BUY | 125 | 17¢ | $21 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | (anonymous) 0xd62b…ceec | Yes | BUY | 50 | 17¢ | $8 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | Likable-Mention 0x3c3e…5a86 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 80 | 17¢ | $14 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-27 20:05:00 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0x5b9d3a… |
| 07-26 12:50:42 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | SELL | 50 | 18¢ | $9 | 0xfdad0a… |
| 07-26 12:50:42 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 50 | 82¢ | $41 | 0xfdad0a… |
| 07-26 12:50:40 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 50 | 82¢ | $41 | 0xd4eab2… |
| 07-26 12:50:40 | Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | No | SELL | 50 | 82¢ | $41 | 0xd4eab2… |
| 07-24 23:17:19 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | SELL | 584 | 18¢ | $105 | 0x3ecf25… |
| 07-24 23:17:19 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x3ecf25… |
| 07-24 23:17:19 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | No | SELL | 643 | 82¢ | $527 | 0x3ecf25… |
| 07-24 23:17:19 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0x3ecf25… |
| 07-24 23:17:19 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | BUY | 6 | 82¢ | $5 | 0x3ecf25… |
| 07-24 23:17:19 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x3ecf25… |
| 07-24 23:17:19 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 8 | 82¢ | $6 | 0x3ecf25… |
| 07-24 23:17:19 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x3ecf25… |
| 07-24 23:17:19 | (anonymous) 0xd38f…bf78 | No | BUY | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x3ecf25… |
| 07-24 21:30:16 | (anonymous) 0xd62b…ceec | No | SELL | 30 | 82¢ | $25 | 0x14781d… |
| 07-24 21:30:16 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | SELL | 30 | 18¢ | $5 | 0x14781d… |
| 07-24 21:30:13 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 9 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x208b7c… |
| 07-24 21:30:13 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | SELL | 9 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x208b7c… |
| 07-24 21:29:42 | (anonymous) 0xd62b…ceec | No | BUY | 30 | 82¢ | $25 | 0xc24a84… |
| 07-24 21:29:42 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0xc24a84… |
| 07-24 21:29:42 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xc24a84… |
| 07-24 21:29:42 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 9 | 82¢ | $8 | 0xc24a84… |
| 07-24 21:29:42 | Ambitious-Asparagus 0xa5c2…5b5f | No | SELL | 50 | 82¢ | $41 | 0xc24a84… |
| 07-24 02:36:07 | (anonymous) 0x918f…2e84 | No | SELL | 1 | 83¢ | $1 | 0x2dd2c9… |
| 07-24 02:36:07 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | BUY | 1 | 83¢ | $1 | 0x2dd2c9… |
| 07-23 23:33:58 | (anonymous) 0x45f2…722e | No | BUY | 14 | 88¢ | $12 | 0x07945a… |
| 07-23 23:33:58 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x07945a… |
| 07-23 23:33:58 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | SELL | 6 | 88¢ | $5 | 0x07945a… |
| 07-23 23:33:58 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | Yes | BUY | 2 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x07945a… |
| 07-23 15:20:28 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0x4f1824… |
| 07-23 15:20:28 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 15 | 84¢ | $13 | 0x4f1824… |
| 07-23 15:20:28 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x4f1824… |
| 07-23 15:20:28 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 50 | 84¢ | $42 | 0x4f1824… |
| 07-23 13:40:15 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | BUY | 6 | 82¢ | $5 | 0x9d6a28… |
| 07-23 13:40:15 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 18¢ | $5 | 0x9d6a28… |
| 07-23 13:40:15 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | SELL | 13 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x9d6a28… |
| 07-23 13:40:15 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 50 | 82¢ | $41 | 0x9d6a28… |
| 07-23 12:50:09 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0xe0a0a3… |
| 07-23 12:50:09 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0xe0a0a3… |
| 07-23 12:50:06 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0xce52d2… |