Mature-Fly — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$131

Unrealized P&L

+$44

Hit rate

53.5%

Resolved

Trades

204

lifetime

Volume

$8.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

$124

1 position

First seen

2026-03-01

last 10-19 14:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Politics

60% 31% +$849

Other

29% 16% -$374

Crypto

5% 36% -$46

Tech

4% 0% -$287

Sports

3% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+296	$80	42¢	$124	+$44	10-19 14:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$751	463	463	+0	No	+$51	05-31 04:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$750	867	867	+0	No	+$724	05-24 08:07
will fidesz kdnp win at least 90 seats	4	$465	463	463	+0	No	+$23	04-12 19:19
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	6	$388	433	433	+0	Yes	-$66	03-07 18:37
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	6	$344	511	511	+0	Yes	-$11	03-12 21:15
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	2	$338	183	183	+0	No	+$16	03-28 14:11
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$330	260	260	+0	No	+$70	03-03 18:06
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	3	$302	426	426	+0	No	-$98	06-07 20:33
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$290	299	299	+0	No	-$9	03-02 18:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 20:15 UTC	1	$272	287	0	+287	Up	+$14	03-03 20:19
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$265	170	170	+0	No	+$61	04-26 13:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$258	277	277	+0	No	+$160	05-24 08:07
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$249	149	149	+0	Yes	+$49	04-12 19:19
iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	2	$213	288	288	+0	No	-$68	03-03 16:35
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$199	154	154	+0	No	-$1	06-08 23:56
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	2	$196	121	121	+0	Yes	-$4	03-05 12:19
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	3	$189	123	123	+0	No	-$5	03-24 11:59
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	3	$173	177	177	+0	Yes	+$127	06-04 00:29
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$170	220	220	+0	Yes	+$74	03-23 23:14
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?	6	$130	1,328	196	+1,131	No	-$79	06-09 19:22
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	7	$125	616	616	+0	No	-$75	06-15 16:06
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	11	$121	8,692	8,692	+0	Yes	-$103	07-01 20:20
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?	2	$89	85	85	+0	Yes	+$79	04-30 15:44
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	2	$84	174	174	+0	Yes	-$79	03-06 17:04
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	2	$82	46	46	+0	No	+$5	03-03 14:15
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$80	296	0	+296	open	—	10-19 14:52
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	2	$80	76	76	+0	No	-$20	03-07 18:37
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	2	$70	5,375	0	+5,375	Yes	-$70	07-01 02:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$67	312	312	+0	Yes	-$33	07-18 23:18
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$65	318	318	+0	No	-$35	07-18 23:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 14:52:42	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	296	27¢	$80	0xd83bdf…
10-19 14:52:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	95	15¢	$14	0x4170ad…
09-24 23:39:33	Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	1¢	$0	0xdf893f…
09-24 23:39:24	Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0xeb68d2…
09-10 12:48:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0x67d6a1…
08-03 04:58:44	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?	Yes	BUY	169	6¢	$10	0x9230a0…
08-03 04:56:48	Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.1% in July?	Yes	BUY	208	5¢	$10	0x1b6b10…
08-03 04:55:24	Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xe2a944…
08-03 04:48:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0xf1e2b7…
07-18 23:18:54	Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	216	1¢	$3	0xd35d93…
07-18 23:18:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	318	5¢	$15	0x497c37…
07-18 23:18:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	312	5¢	$17	0xb38100…
07-06 20:05:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	318	16¢	$50	0x7d6c1a…
07-06 20:04:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	312	16¢	$50	0x040287…
07-05 21:48:59	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x088dd4…
07-05 17:34:14	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0x09ca44…
07-01 20:20:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	8,692	0¢	$9	0x5290ee…
07-01 19:29:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	2,080	1¢	$25	0xee94fb…
07-01 19:29:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	607	1¢	$7	0x88456f…
07-01 19:29:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	4,542	1¢	$54	0xedf6d4…
07-01 19:29:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	42	1¢	$1	0xa1a1bd…
07-01 19:29:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	185	1¢	$2	0x2fcbd7…
07-01 19:29:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	506	1¢	$6	0xd085ef…
07-01 19:28:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	522	1¢	$6	0xd54a74…
07-01 19:28:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x07cd1d…
07-01 19:28:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x9f6875…
07-01 02:32:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 8	No	BUY	1,047	0¢	$5	0x0ed505…
07-01 02:32:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 6	No	BUY	1,704	1¢	$10	0xe90c6f…
07-01 02:31:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 3	No	BUY	3,333	1¢	$20	0x5aa19d…
07-01 02:31:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 2	No	BUY	4,000	0¢	$20	0x9619b5…
07-01 02:31:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	192	5¢	$10	0xc36bd0…
07-01 02:31:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	5,081	0¢	$20	0x0b74a0…
06-30 21:31:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10 879 888 944	No	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0xf826a5…
06-30 21:31:20	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17 371 741 936	No	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x66f4b5…
06-30 21:20:34	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0x12ff02…
06-30 21:20:26	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes	SELL	114	0¢	$0	0x1168b0…
06-22 05:26:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x0f8e28…
06-16 11:37:18	Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?	Yes	SELL	128	1¢	$2	0x9080b6…
06-15 16:06:10	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0xf2149c…
06-15 06:44:21	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	SELL	93	4¢	$4	0x1b7f7b…
06-15 06:39:46	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	SELL	190	4¢	$8	0x67dceb…
06-15 04:55:06	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0x97e188…
06-15 04:54:19	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0x479108…
06-15 04:47:52	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	SELL	303	4¢	$12	0xaf321e…
06-09 19:22:09	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	196	13¢	$26	0x5dbe5b…
06-08 23:56:42	Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	154	64¢	$99	0x5c73a1…
06-07 20:33:25	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	426	24¢	$102	0x905338…
06-07 20:01:54	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	45	1¢	$0	0x50c72a…
06-07 20:01:06	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0xe19b5b…
06-07 19:18:37	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x720787…
06-06 19:46:01	Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xa49b0c…
06-05 03:51:15	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes	BUY	114	9¢	$10	0x151ed1…
06-05 03:50:33	Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	12¢	$10	0x6ce0ed…
06-05 03:50:25	Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	216	5¢	$10	0x597776…
06-05 03:49:00	Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x9103a1…
06-04 23:09:01	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	14	72¢	$10	0x9221b5…
06-04 03:47:27	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	1,247	8¢	$100	0xed93da…
06-04 03:11:19	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	12	5¢	$1	0x84585d…
06-04 02:47:19	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0x83338f…
06-04 02:47:18	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	66	5¢	$4	0xe24baf…
06-04 02:47:18	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0xc223c9…
06-04 00:29:10	Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	SELL	177	85¢	$150	0x35048e…
05-31 19:07:00	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	BUY	616	16¢	$100	0xf211e4…
05-31 04:10:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0xdb8871…
05-30 17:27:47	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	8¢	$10	0xb5fd2b…
05-30 17:16:20	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xd5471d…
05-30 08:56:35	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,667	0¢	$2	0x5fc80b…
05-30 08:56:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	SELL	667	0¢	$1	0x1ea74b…
05-28 13:33:22	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	No	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x172310…
05-27 15:35:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x23f190…
05-27 10:38:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	263	78¢	$205	0x70a422…
05-26 23:19:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	263	76¢	$200	0xafcae2…
05-26 05:59:52	Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x14cdd4…
05-26 05:57:25	Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?	Yes	BUY	128	8¢	$10	0x3ff0f8…
05-26 05:56:49	Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x8899c0…
05-26 02:18:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	667	1¢	$10	0x91b952…
05-26 02:18:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,667	1¢	$10	0x0cde19…
05-26 02:00:41	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x739162…
05-24 08:07:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	277	75¢	$209	0xd2900a…
05-24 08:07:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	867	85¢	$737	0x99bcea…
05-23 04:24:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	867	1¢	$13	0x2a7eaa…
05-22 23:59:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	202	4¢	$8	0xf5ad66…
05-21 01:10:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	15	31¢	$5	0xe8ec0e…
05-21 01:06:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x9338a1…
05-14 03:57:24	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	SELL	974	1¢	$6	0xb47cb5…
05-14 03:57:09	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	SELL	131	2¢	$3	0x75aafb…
05-14 03:57:02	Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?	Yes	SELL	217	1¢	$1	0x89fe47…
05-14 03:56:58	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	Yes	SELL	172	1¢	$2	0x110337…
05-04 14:45:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	75	55¢	$41	0xf21d75…
05-04 11:20:36	Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	194	9¢	$17	0x97397f…
05-01 03:58:16	Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0xd26633…
04-30 15:50:56	Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x59f40b…
04-30 15:50:06	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	Yes	BUY	172	6¢	$10	0xa01f07…
04-30 15:49:04	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	BUY	131	8¢	$10	0x472197…
04-30 15:44:06	Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0xfd8cd1…
04-27 16:21:02	Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	96	13¢	$12	0x0ce7ed…
04-27 05:43:22	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	166	0¢	$0	0xbef0fb…
04-26 13:26:54	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	170	96¢	$163	0x29150d…
04-24 23:01:36	Will Donald Trump's tie be blue?	Yes	BUY	46	5¢	$2	0xe68030…
04-24 22:44:30	Will Donald Trump's tie be blue?	Yes	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0xe196cf…