Realized P&L
-$174
Unrealized P&L
+$287
Hit rate
37.2%
Resolved
100
Trades
54,635
lifetime
Volume
$144.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$794
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 00:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 25 days
Categories
Other
48% 31% $-138
Politics
35% 21% $-21
Sports
10% 100% +$2
Tech
4%
Pop-Culture
1%
Crypto
1% 22% $-16
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 428 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Camila Cabello perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes +660 $21 50¢ $330 +$309 07-19 20:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -100 $-16 44¢ $-44 $-28 06-25 13:47
MLB: Scorigami in 2026? Yes -301 $-27 12¢ $-35 $-8 06-15 00:33
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? Yes +893 $46 $30 $-16 07-16 14:20
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +329 $22 $28 +$6 07-17 17:58
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? Yes +67 $6 41¢ $28 +$22 07-15 12:12
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes +504 $26 $25 $-1 07-16 19:04
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Yes +201 $26 11¢ $22 $-3 07-14 12:17
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes +201 $12 11¢ $21 +$9 07-18 14:08
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? Yes +375 $23 $19 $-5 07-16 21:19
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes +659 $38 $17 $-21 07-17 12:18
Fuse FDV above $6B one day after launch? Yes +35 $3 44¢ $16 +$13 06-25 09:27
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +131 $13 11¢ $14 +$1 07-14 08:58
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? Yes +180 $13 $13 $-1 07-12 08:52
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Yes -539 $-13 $-12 +$1 06-26 00:01
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +102 $8 11¢ $11 +$4 07-12 05:17
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes +102 $12 11¢ $11 $-2 07-09 12:28
Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.? Yes +203 $14 $10 $-4 07-14 15:49
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes +671 $6 $10 +$3 07-20 17:36
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +52 $5 18¢ $10 +$5 07-13 00:04
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes +119 $12 $10 $-2 07-10 07:22
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? Yes +203 $8 $9 +$1 07-05 05:19
Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes +100 $10 $9 $-0 07-11 05:48
Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +73 $7 12¢ $9 +$2 06-22 14:26
Hotstuff FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +20 $2 45¢ $9 +$7 07-04 10:29
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? Yes +204 $18 $9 $-9 07-17 04:56
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes +119 $10 $9 $-1 07-15 03:25
SlingshotDAO FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +20 $1 43¢ $9 +$8 06-30 17:04
Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +132 $11 $9 $-2 06-11 21:33
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes +120 $9 $8 $-1 07-19 01:58