Realized P&L
-$24.3K
Unrealized P&L
-$325
Hit rate
37.5%
Resolved
12,201
Trades
215,733
lifetime
Volume
$465.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$1.43K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 21:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 298 days
Categories
Other
52% 21% -$15,117
Politics
33% 23% -$5,748
Sports
8% 23% -$1,449
Tech
4% 27% -$1,471
Crypto
2% 20% -$487
Pop-Culture
1% 43% -$70
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 2853 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes -252 -$14 88¢ $-222 -$208 08-17 15:32
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? No +1,200 $92 10¢ $114 +$22 10-28 21:02
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes +5,331 $114 2¢ $88 -$26 10-27 10:18
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? Yes +802 $48 8¢ $60 +$12 10-27 18:45
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +711 $66 8¢ $60 -$6 10-28 16:17
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +783 $63 7¢ $57 -$6 10-26 10:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes +423 $37 12¢ $53 +$16 10-27 07:36
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +403 $32 12¢ $50 +$18 09-28 22:45
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes +397 $44 12¢ $48 +$4 10-27 06:46
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +802 $68 6¢ $44 -$24 10-19 19:19
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes +402 $42 11¢ $42 +$0 10-13 20:05
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? Yes +580 $91 7¢ $42 -$49 10-28 20:08
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No +592 $41 7¢ $40 -$1 10-28 13:22
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes — +416 $36 9¢ $37 +$1 10-24 02:08
New pandemic in 2026? Yes +1,022 $34 3¢ $35 +$1 10-28 19:17
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes +201 $24 17¢ $34 +$10 10-17 21:00
iran leadership change by november 30 Yes +402 $40 8¢ $34 -$6 10-28 18:46
will louisiana enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027 Yes +201 $20 16¢ $33 +$13 10-28 21:50
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +2,404 $111 1¢ $32 -$78 10-23 09:13
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Yes +786 $40 4¢ $30 -$10 09-29 06:31
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes +336 $27 9¢ $30 +$3 10-27 14:15
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? No +405 $52 7¢ $29 -$23 10-28 10:51
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Yes +489 $30 6¢ $29 -$1 10-26 03:11
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes +201 $20 15¢ $29 +$9 10-20 03:41
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? Yes +416 $38 7¢ $29 -$9 10-26 15:40
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes +764 $29 4¢ $27 -$2 10-28 19:56
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Yes +402 $30 6¢ $26 -$4 10-26 23:30
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +386 $27 7¢ $26 -$1 10-28 02:18
Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes +404 $24 6¢ $25 +$1 10-17 20:08
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes +164 $7 15¢ $25 +$19 10-25 22:19