Realized P&L
-$168
Unrealized P&L
-$98
Hit rate
37.9%
Resolved
96
Trades
47,848
lifetime
Volume
$124.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$413
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 18:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 25 days
Categories
Other
50% 31% $-138
Politics
35% 21% $-21
Sports
9% 100% +$2
Tech
4%
Pop-Culture
1%
Crypto
1% 40% $-10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 412 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
MLB: Scorigami in 2026? Yes -301 $-27 17¢ $-53 $-25 06-15 00:33
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes +472 $32 $30 $-2 06-30 00:24
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes +455 $29 $29 +$0 06-29 03:23
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? Yes +577 $40 $22 $-19 06-29 20:31
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes -489 $-9 $-21 $-12 06-30 19:00
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes +299 $17 $18 +$1 06-25 12:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -100 $-16 18¢ $-17 $-1 06-25 13:47
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes +2,013 $31 $15 $-16 06-30 00:56
Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No +153 $8 $14 +$6 06-29 15:45
Hotstuff FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +30 $2 46¢ $14 +$11 06-28 01:39
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? Yes +119 $12 11¢ $13 +$1 06-11 02:45
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No -13 $-11 97¢ $-13 $-2 06-21 02:18
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Yes -539 $-13 $-12 +$1 06-26 00:01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Yes +107 $12 11¢ $11 $-1 06-30 18:18
Glean IPO before 2027? Yes -83 $-9 14¢ $-11 $-2 06-22 13:01
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes +210 $11 $11 $-0 06-30 15:12
Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30? Yes +129 $10 $10 +$1 06-29 03:47
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? Yes +404 $24 $10 $-13 06-30 18:31
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes -73 $-15 14¢ $-10 +$5 06-26 07:22
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? No -22 $-3 43¢ $-10 $-6 06-27 21:48
Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +132 $11 $9 $-2 06-11 21:33
Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +73 $7 11¢ $8 +$1 06-22 14:26
Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No +102 $8 $7 $-1 06-29 15:15
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes +172 $17 $7 $-10 06-20 17:57
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? Yes +82 $8 $7 $-1 06-27 13:35
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Yes -51 $-3 13¢ $-7 $-4 06-05 07:40
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? No +27 $2 24¢ $6 +$4 06-25 09:41
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes -43 $-6 15¢ $-6 $-0 06-27 21:23
Vanta IPO before 2027? Yes -54 $1 12¢ $-6 $-7 06-26 07:03
Another Elon baby by June 30? Yes +680 $11 $6 $-5 06-29 09:01