Realized P&L
-$24.6K
Unrealized P&L
-$249
Hit rate
37.6%
Resolved
12,319
Trades
217,625
lifetime
Volume
$469.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$1.55K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 13:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 299 days
Categories
Other
52% 21% -$15,317
Politics
33% 23% -$5,763
Sports
8% 23% -$1,533
Tech
4% 27% -$1,469
Crypto
2% 20% -$487
Pop-Culture
1% 43% -$70
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 2853 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes -252 -$14 89¢ $-225 -$211 08-17 15:32
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? No +1,200 $92 8¢ $102 +$10 10-28 21:02
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? Yes +1,395 $141 6¢ $84 -$57 10-29 09:54
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes +5,331 $114 2¢ $83 -$31 10-27 10:18
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? No +1,205 $103 6¢ $78 -$25 10-29 05:03
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes +808 $64 8¢ $69 +$4 10-29 09:37
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +711 $66 9¢ $65 -$1 10-28 16:17
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? Yes +802 $48 8¢ $60 +$12 10-27 18:45
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +783 $63 7¢ $58 -$5 10-26 10:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes +423 $37 12¢ $53 +$16 10-27 07:36
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes +397 $44 12¢ $48 +$4 10-27 06:46
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +403 $32 12¢ $46 +$14 09-28 22:45
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +802 $68 6¢ $44 -$24 10-19 19:19
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes +402 $42 11¢ $42 +$0 10-13 20:05
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No +592 $41 6¢ $38 -$3 10-28 13:22
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes — +416 $36 9¢ $37 +$1 10-24 02:08
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? Yes +201 $24 18¢ $37 +$13 10-17 21:00
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes +201 $20 18¢ $37 +$17 10-28 21:50
New pandemic in 2026? Yes +1,022 $34 3¢ $35 +$1 10-28 19:17
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes +336 $27 10¢ $32 +$5 10-27 14:15
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Yes +786 $40 4¢ $30 -$10 09-29 06:31
Iran leadership change by November 30? Yes +402 $40 8¢ $30 -$10 10-28 18:46
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Yes +489 $30 6¢ $29 -$1 10-26 03:11
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes +201 $20 15¢ $29 +$9 10-20 03:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +404 $32 7¢ $27 -$5 10-29 09:05
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Yes +402 $30 6¢ $26 -$4 10-26 23:30
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +386 $27 7¢ $26 -$1 10-28 02:18
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes +164 $7 16¢ $25 +$19 10-25 22:19
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes +156 $7 16¢ $25 +$18 10-28 18:30
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes +764 $29 3¢ $25 -$4 10-28 19:56