Juvenile-Hypothesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

32.1%

Resolved

Trades

37,899

lifetime

Volume

$30.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 06:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

54% 67% $-2

Crypto

15% 100% +$5

Sports

15% 20% $-3

Politics

15% 50% $-40

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 129 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1,428	$2.0K	50,777	62,814	-12,037	open	—	03-18 20:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	829	$1.4K	19,957	19,797	+161	open	—	04-20 14:47
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	299	$1.3K	1,921	1,931	-10	open	—	03-31 20:16
will scottie scheffler win the 2026 masters tournament	583	$966	5,252	5,802	-550	open	—	04-12 19:50
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	2,327	$894	11,467	11,229	+238	open	—	04-11 19:27
will hideki matsuyama win the 2026 masters tournament	1,315	$725	15,800	12,789	+3,011	open	—	04-11 18:49
GTA VI released before June 2026?	1,256	$666	19,451	19,749	-298	open	—	05-24 18:14
will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	1,149	$561	7,504	7,076	+428	open	—	03-30 17:37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	503	$556	15,762	16,896	-1,134	open	—	04-10 12:57
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	821	$541	4,243	4,216	+28	open	—	04-28 10:10
will arkansas win the 2026 ncaa tournament	999	$498	18,068	13,384	+4,684	open	—	03-27 05:28
will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	560	$491	6,107	4,961	+1,146	open	—	03-27 10:08
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	457	$489	4,386	4,170	+216	open	—	03-06 11:25
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	463	$373	6,081	5,941	+140	open	—	03-24 12:48
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	833	$362	9,756	8,926	+830	open	—	03-24 01:07
trump out as president by march 31	423	$334	5,571	5,720	-150	open	—	02-28 19:32
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	377	$312	8,834	9,358	-525	open	—	03-23 12:29
will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	139	$293	880	835	+46	open	—	03-29 23:15
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	159	$288	11,447	12,168	-721	open	—	02-16 02:28
will henrique gouveia e melo win the 2026 portugal presidential election	244	$271	6,130	7,160	-1,030	open	—	01-17 18:50
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	295	$270	3,638	3,950	-312	Yes	$-43	05-12 20:19
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	138	$261	622	665	-43	open	—	05-27 17:53
will mike vrabel win nfl coach of the year	139	$231	785	759	+25	open	—	02-05 17:30
will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	137	$207	535	555	-19	open	—	04-05 01:20
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	78	$204	248	246	+2	Yes	$-1	05-08 18:45
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	149	$200	2,350	2,108	+242	open	—	04-22 09:36
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	67	$193	132	132	+0	open	—	02-28 20:57
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	61	$190	195	215	-20	open	—	02-28 20:18
tim cook out as apple ceo by march 31	236	$188	2,412	3,655	-1,243	open	—	04-01 02:13
will google gemini 3 score at least 60 on the frontiermath benchmark by	162	$186	1,772	1,504	+268	open	—	02-01 01:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 10:57:33	StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0x4ae620…
08-10 10:51:00	StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xeb332d…
08-10 10:50:55	StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	35	4¢	$2	0xdcf76b…
08-10 09:13:55	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x517307…
08-10 08:58:34	Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?	No	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x602ca4…
08-10 08:58:33	Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x4beb60…
08-10 06:46:19	Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x4fd54a…
08-10 06:42:34	Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0x22ba01…
08-10 06:31:52	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x89ad5e…
08-10 06:27:51	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x8a1ec4…
08-10 06:00:10	Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0xdb2749…
08-10 03:36:07	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x636f3a…
08-10 03:31:30	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	12¢	$4	0x5c92c5…
08-10 02:48:43	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0xab69f1…
08-10 00:55:52	Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0x22ad7c…
08-10 00:38:10	Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0x6e458a…
08-09 23:34:22	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xa7e24f…
08-09 22:40:36	Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?	No	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x7efe8e…
08-09 22:19:18	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0x54d082…
08-09 22:07:06	Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x28d51d…
08-09 22:07:04	Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0xb1dc25…
08-09 21:21:36	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x579d25…
08-09 20:54:15	Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x1d586a…
08-09 20:15:28	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	6	66¢	$4	0xb1caac…
08-09 19:44:15	U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0xeb84cb…
08-09 19:43:42	US defaults on debt by 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x23d367…
08-09 19:14:45	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x7ffc12…
08-09 18:08:15	Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0x05086e…
08-09 17:32:28	Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	3¢	$1	0xe65a3d…
08-09 17:32:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xec1adc…
08-09 17:31:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0x2e099e…
08-09 17:13:06	China coup attempt before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0xe88150…
08-09 17:05:09	Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	3¢	$0	0xf02f6a…
08-09 16:28:07	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	13¢	$4	0xffd1a1…
08-09 16:03:37	Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	13¢	$3	0xd749ae…
08-09 15:44:28	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	13¢	$2	0xc4d4e6…
08-09 15:40:04	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0xdc8dd2…
08-09 15:12:12	Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0xc08703…
08-09 15:11:12	Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x4dc413…
08-09 15:03:52	StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x730787…
08-09 14:30:03	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	17¢	$2	0x9947b5…
08-09 14:05:54	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xe939f1…
08-09 13:58:00	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x54a05e…
08-09 13:15:36	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x20dcbc…
08-09 13:08:46	Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xc5069d…
08-09 12:41:12	China coup attempt before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x31964e…
08-09 12:29:52	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	36¢	$3	0x2f6d52…
08-09 12:24:06	Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0xfacd38…
08-09 11:50:30	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$0	0x189b27…
08-09 11:29:12	Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xd9ba8b…
08-09 11:25:10	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	16¢	$5	0x0846ac…
08-09 11:24:57	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$1	0xc03390…
08-09 11:10:28	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xd6b156…
08-09 10:52:43	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$0	0x344e35…
08-09 10:36:42	Will Aster reach $2.00 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x2eaad1…
08-09 09:02:13	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0xd521ef…
08-09 08:51:43	Obama arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	3¢	$1	0x47617b…
08-09 08:48:21	Obama arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0x7a8f45…
08-09 08:09:48	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	SELL	7	64¢	$4	0xf3086f…
08-09 07:30:04	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0x23cbd1…
08-09 07:19:33	Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x4ee980…
08-09 07:18:39	Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	2¢	$2	0x0cf2ca…
08-09 07:05:55	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	6	72¢	$5	0x22d0be…
08-09 07:05:33	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	6¢	$3	0x3ead0b…
08-09 07:05:21	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x9a35eb…
08-09 07:03:18	Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x96fe74…
08-09 06:39:45	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xd5f2a9…
08-09 06:11:48	Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x233026…
08-09 06:07:09	Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x272807…
08-09 06:04:51	Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x19f87b…
08-09 05:57:06	Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x3c96b0…
08-09 03:05:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	41¢	$5	0x819c52…
08-09 02:39:57	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0x33901c…
08-09 02:39:01	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x3bbccb…
08-09 01:10:57	Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0x5dfb78…
08-09 01:10:37	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0xc6fa86…
08-09 00:35:07	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x462405…
08-08 23:05:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0x671c09…
08-08 22:54:10	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	74	5¢	$4	0x41ad11…
08-08 22:05:51	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0xf06492…
08-08 21:31:09	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0x736051…
08-08 21:26:43	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0x248f02…
08-08 20:43:16	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0xaef1d1…
08-08 19:44:01	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	10¢	$4	0x2311fa…
08-08 19:31:34	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x4acadf…
08-08 18:42:40	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x30f186…
08-08 18:09:49	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0x57b9ab…
08-08 17:16:37	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	20¢	$0	0x37f1de…
08-08 15:56:40	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0xbee2c2…
08-08 15:42:45	Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	9¢	$3	0x16c41d…
08-08 15:38:31	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	20¢	$2	0x06fe6c…
08-08 15:18:04	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x46ddf0…
08-08 15:15:15	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb6a7d8…
08-08 14:45:46	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	59¢	$4	0xdc047c…
08-08 14:31:40	Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x52a991…
08-08 14:31:36	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x172c81…
08-08 14:08:51	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	46	9¢	$4	0x49d7ec…
08-08 14:05:13	Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x951765…
08-08 12:14:45	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xae8bcb…
08-08 10:14:09	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	9¢	$2	0x76ce38…