Realized P&L
+$200
Unrealized P&L
+$59
Hit rate
34.6%
Resolved
12,881
Trades
19,607
lifetime
Volume
$4.56K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$0
Open exposure
$91
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 10-28 19:27
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 284 days
Categories
Other
68% 7% +$276
Politics
15% 19% +$15
Crypto
11% 3% -$141
Tech
4% 19% +$35
Sports
1% 16% +$10
Pop-Culture
1% 15% +$5
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 103 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No +5 $1 98¢ $5 +$4 09-15 13:22
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in October? No +5 $0 98¢ $5 +$5 10-02 08:19
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +5 $1 98¢ $5 +$4 08-13 09:25
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? No -5 -$4 95¢ $-5 $0 09-15 08:40
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +5 $1 94¢ $5 +$4 07-07 05:02
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? No — +5 $1 93¢ $5 +$4 06-13 20:25
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +5 $1 93¢ $5 +$4 07-31 01:38
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No +5 $1 90¢ $5 +$3 06-05 11:12
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes +5 $1 90¢ $4 +$4 06-25 13:15
will papertrade launch a token by december 31 2026 No +5 $0 89¢ $4 +$4 06-08 03:45
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +5 $1 88¢ $4 +$4 10-10 02:49
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +5 $1 85¢ $4 +$3 10-15 09:09
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +5 $1 82¢ $4 +$3 06-15 12:54
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +5 $1 79¢ $4 +$3 06-17 18:15
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes +5 $1 74¢ $4 +$3 05-19 15:26
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +5 $1 60¢ $3 +$2 10-19 08:14
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? No +5 $2 50¢ $3 +$1 10-19 20:58
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $3 50¢ $2 $0 10-28 20:07
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? Yes +5 $1 34¢ $2 +$1 10-24 11:09
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +5 $1 31¢ $2 +$0 10-21 17:28
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +5 $1 29¢ $1 +$1 09-11 05:17
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No +5 $1 28¢ $1 +$1 10-24 08:24
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No +5 $1 28¢ $1 +$1 10-07 07:45
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +5 $1 26¢ $1 +$1 10-19 04:59
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +5 $1 26¢ $1 +$0 10-28 08:57
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +5 $1 26¢ $1 +$0 10-28 06:13
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No +5 $1 26¢ $1 +$0 10-19 16:46
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? No +5 $0 23¢ $1 +$1 10-04 22:07
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? No +5 $1 23¢ $1 +$0 10-02 02:16
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No +5 $1 22¢ $1 $0 08-14 15:39