Realized P&L
+$8
Unrealized P&L
+$11
Hit rate
29.3%
Resolved
139
Trades
12,778
lifetime
Volume
$2.14K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$0
Open exposure
$27
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 06-19 23:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Other
68% 11% +$15
Crypto
16% 9% $-4
Politics
14% 17% $-2
Tech
1%
Sports
1% 0% $-0
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 406 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +5 $2 84¢ $4 +$3 06-11 09:38
Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026? No +5 $0 81¢ $4 +$4 06-09 08:49
Amazon 2026 capex above $210B? Yes +5 $0 64¢ $3 +$3 06-07 16:36
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No +5 $1 34¢ $2 +$1 06-06 00:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No +5 $1 29¢ $1 +$0 06-05 11:12
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes +5 $0 21¢ $1 +$1 06-01 09:29
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No +5 $0 21¢ $1 +$1 06-10 14:43
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No +5 $1 18¢ $1 +$0 06-17 20:34
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes +5 $1 17¢ $1 $-0 06-19 07:57
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? Yes +5 $1 16¢ $1 +$0 06-15 03:38
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes +5 $1 14¢ $1 +$0 06-20 02:17
Amazon 2026 capex above $190B? No -5 $-1 14¢ $-1 $-0 06-16 08:43
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024? No +5 $0 13¢ $1 +$0 06-15 01:24
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? Yes +5 $1 12¢ $1 +$0 06-15 13:58
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +5 $1 12¢ $1 $-0 06-07 15:23
Pro Football: A.J. Brown to join Patriots by regular season start? No +4 $0 14¢ $1 +$0 06-01 12:31
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes +5 $0 10¢ $1 +$0 06-13 12:15
Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass? No +1 $0 46¢ $1 +$0 05-27 20:43
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? No +5 $0 10¢ $0 +$0 06-16 15:30
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $0 $0 +$0 06-18 17:20
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? No +5 $1 $0 $-0 06-16 07:32
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +5 $1 $0 $-1 06-02 10:57
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes +5 $0 $0 $-0 06-19 16:39
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $0 $0 $-0 06-07 16:45
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? Yes +5 $0 $0 $-0 06-04 13:12
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? Yes +5 $0 $0 +$0 06-16 18:49
Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026? Yes +5 $0 $0 +$0 06-16 13:48
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes +5 $0 $0 +$0 06-16 22:40
Over $6M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Yes -5 $-0 $-0 +$0 06-07 06:08
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? No +5 $0 $0 $-0 06-17 09:58