Realized P&L
+$234
Unrealized P&L
-$69
Hit rate
60.9%
Resolved
26
Trades
8,383
lifetime
Volume
$45.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$1.66K
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-31
last 07-01 06:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Other
41% 50% $-8
Sports
36% 50% $-35
Politics
12% 67% +$82
Crypto
10% 89% +$195
Tech
2%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 264 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Yes -3,594 $-262 $-270 $-8 07-01 02:08
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Yes +2,379 $312 11¢ $250 $-62 07-01 07:57
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No -303 $-229 80¢ $-242 $-13 05-28 11:59
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Yes +335 $168 51¢ $171 +$3 07-01 08:40
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Yes +901 $113 14¢ $122 +$8 07-01 05:51
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No -155 $-96 65¢ $-101 $-5 06-04 21:27
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? No -100 $-86 100¢ $-100 $-13 05-30 19:00
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes +182 $78 52¢ $94 +$15 07-01 09:17
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No -115 $-96 81¢ $-93 +$3 05-28 21:17
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Yes +334 $61 16¢ $52 $-9 07-01 07:49
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? No -43 $-39 89¢ $-38 +$1 06-24 22:56
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes +54 $17 51¢ $28 +$11 07-01 09:13
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Yes -98 $-23 22¢ $-21 +$2 06-23 18:41
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes +23 $19 90¢ $20 +$1 06-30 08:02
Will BP be acquired before 2027? Yes +157 $17 12¢ $18 +$1 06-21 12:05
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? No -20 $-11 63¢ $-13 $-2 05-27 21:24
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes +55 $12 22¢ $12 $-0 06-30 00:15
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? No -6 $-5 90¢ $-5 $-0 06-27 14:40
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026? Yes -15 $-3 23¢ $-3 $-0 06-23 20:33
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? Yes +37 $3 $3 +$0 06-29 17:59
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes +57 $3 $3 $-1 06-29 18:03
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B? Yes -19 $-3 13¢ $-2 +$0 06-11 22:14
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes +29 $2 $2 $-0 06-27 15:17