Realized P&L
-$30.3K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.73K
Hit rate
10.5%
Resolved
1,875
Trades
54,298
lifetime
Volume
$3.16M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$58
Open exposure
$6.00K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 10-27 11:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 179 days
Categories
Other
55% 6% -$15,675
Politics
38% 9% -$14,037
Tech
3% 8% -$453
Sports
2% 8% -$60
Crypto
2% 6% -$114
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 5627 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No +859 $843 92¢ $790 -$53 10-26 22:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No +623 $609 99¢ $618 +$9 10-19 18:39
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +700 $622 88¢ $616 -$6 10-27 08:28
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat? Yes +621 $497 78¢ $487 -$9 10-26 20:25
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +660 $509 70¢ $459 -$50 10-25 19:42
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +481 $440 80¢ $385 -$55 10-27 08:25
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No +323 $320 86¢ $277 -$43 10-27 03:34
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat? No +332 $270 80¢ $264 -$5 10-26 20:13
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes +1,070 $1,004 24¢ $254 -$750 09-30 20:09
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +660 $240 30¢ $201 -$39 10-27 11:55
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No -195 -$132 97¢ $-190 -$58 06-26 12:00
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +202 $185 91¢ $183 -$2 10-25 21:44
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes +265 $223 68¢ $180 -$43 10-11 07:49
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No -156 -$123 97¢ $-151 -$28 07-24 08:10
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +159 $143 84¢ $133 -$10 07-16 23:36
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +142 $156 86¢ $123 -$33 10-26 11:46
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No +152 $136 68¢ $104 -$32 10-06 14:02
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? Yes +531 $115 20¢ $103 -$12 10-26 08:28
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +531 $90 14¢ $76 -$14 10-27 08:08
Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? No +75 $69 90¢ $68 -$1 10-19 07:45
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +660 $115 8¢ $56 -$59 10-27 06:40
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +496 $101 11¢ $52 -$49 10-26 14:56
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? Yes +316 $79 16¢ $49 -$30 10-26 08:58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -36 $18 99¢ $-35 -$54 10-23 13:22
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? Yes +51 $34 64¢ $32 -$2 10-27 04:56
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? Yes +151 $49 20¢ $31 -$18 10-26 20:18
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +159 $201 16¢ $26 -$175 10-14 19:58
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? Yes +123 $33 20¢ $25 -$8 10-27 12:28
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Yes +389 $46 5¢ $18 -$28 10-26 06:08
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +361 $84 4¢ $14 -$70 10-22 11:12