Realized P&L (7d)
-$841
Unrealized P&L
-$2.17K
Hit rate
5.5%
Resolved (7d)
60
Trades (7d)
4,311
55,873 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$320.5K
$3.28M lifetime
Avg / trade
$59
Open exposure
$5.69K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 10-29 17:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 181 days
Categories
Other
54% 6% -$15,735
Politics
38% 9% -$14,037
Tech
3% 8% -$453
Sports
2% 8% -$60
Crypto
2% 6% -$114
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 5627 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No +623 $609 100¢ $622 +$12 10-19 18:39
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes +1,070 $1,004 47¢ $498 -$506 09-30 20:09
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? No +610 $574 78¢ $474 -$100 10-29 14:21
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No +643 $605 72¢ $466 -$139 10-29 17:31
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No +856 $762 53¢ $455 -$306 10-29 17:45
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +660 $509 66¢ $439 -$70 10-25 19:42
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat? No +385 $310 79¢ $304 -$6 10-28 13:41
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +660 $240 34¢ $221 -$19 10-27 11:55
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +578 $468 37¢ $214 -$254 10-29 17:39
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +210 $213 94¢ $198 -$15 10-28 10:06
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No -195 -$132 97¢ $-190 -$58 06-26 12:00
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +208 $194 88¢ $184 -$10 10-29 14:57
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes +265 $223 70¢ $184 -$39 10-11 07:49
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +200 $232 84¢ $169 -$63 10-29 15:05
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No -156 -$123 97¢ $-151 -$28 07-24 08:10
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +159 $143 82¢ $130 -$14 07-16 23:36
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? Yes +565 $187 22¢ $126 -$61 10-28 08:58
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No +130 $123 93¢ $120 -$3 10-28 08:57
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No +152 $136 70¢ $106 -$30 10-06 14:02
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat? No +140 $86 50¢ $69 -$17 10-28 17:57
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat? No +144 $79 44¢ $63 -$16 10-29 15:58
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +64 $72 86¢ $55 -$16 10-29 17:46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +1,320 $125 4¢ $48 -$77 10-29 17:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -36 $18 99¢ $-35 -$54 10-23 13:22
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +200 $52 16¢ $31 -$21 10-29 17:31
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? Yes +45 $71 66¢ $30 -$41 10-29 17:48
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +159 $201 18¢ $29 -$172 10-14 19:58
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? Yes +210 $58 13¢ $27 -$31 10-28 11:54
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? Yes -400 -$11 6¢ $-26 -$15 08-28 18:43
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? Yes +35 $24 60¢ $21 -$3 10-28 13:36