Realized P&L (30d)
-$4.80K
Unrealized P&L
-$1.74K
Hit rate
4.2%
Resolved (30d)
292
Trades (30d)
12,085
57,501 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$849.6K
$3.39M lifetime
Avg / trade
$59
Open exposure
$8.17K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 10-31 22:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 183 days
Categories
Other
54% 6% -$15,837
Politics
39% 9% -$14,308
Tech
3% 9% -$465
Sports
2% 8% -$60
Crypto
2% 6% -$120
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 5627 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +1,266 $1,290 92¢ $1.2K -$130 10-31 16:22
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +710 $647 89¢ $630 -$17 10-30 03:53
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026 No +623 $609 100¢ $622 +$13 10-19 18:39
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? No +516 $507 94¢ $486 -$21 10-30 15:10
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +660 $517 70¢ $459 -$59 10-30 10:07
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? No +565 $540 77¢ $437 -$103 10-31 18:43
will missouri enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027 No +440 $376 86¢ $381 +$4 10-31 06:28
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? No +391 $407 96¢ $377 -$30 10-30 16:35
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat? No +452 $378 81¢ $366 -$12 10-31 07:18
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat? Yes +440 $372 80¢ $354 -$18 10-31 07:08
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes +1,070 $1,004 29¢ $314 -$691 09-30 20:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +322 $330 91¢ $292 -$37 10-31 18:45
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes +265 $223 76¢ $202 -$21 10-11 07:49
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +660 $241 30¢ $201 -$39 10-29 19:28
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 No -195 -$132 98¢ $-191 -$58 06-26 12:00
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +200 $239 91¢ $183 -$56 10-30 20:51
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +208 $194 87¢ $182 -$12 10-29 14:57
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? No +554 $193 32¢ $180 -$12 10-31 08:00
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No -156 -$123 95¢ $-148 -$25 10-29 21:47
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No +308 $159 46¢ $140 -$18 10-29 23:00
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +159 $143 84¢ $133 -$10 07-16 23:36
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? Yes +565 $187 23¢ $128 -$59 10-31 18:38
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No +152 $136 76¢ $116 -$20 10-06 14:02
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026? No +660 $108 14¢ $92 -$15 10-31 19:04
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +1,018 $134 9¢ $88 -$46 10-31 08:40
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? No +237 $89 35¢ $83 -$6 10-31 21:05
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +515 $83 15¢ $75 -$9 10-31 00:59
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date No +64 $111 84¢ $54 -$57 10-31 14:38
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? No +213 $200 24¢ $51 -$149 10-29 20:37
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? No +134 $72 32¢ $44 -$29 10-30 23:54