Realized P&L (30d)
-$5.91K
Unrealized P&L
-$2.01K
Hit rate
3.4%
Resolved (30d)
402
Trades (30d)
11,717
56,751 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$830.1K
$3.34M lifetime
Avg / trade
$59
Open exposure
$6.19K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 10-30 22:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 182 days
Categories
Other
54% 6% -$15,825
Politics
38% 9% -$14,037
Tech
3% 8% -$453
Sports
2% 8% -$60
Crypto
2% 6% -$120
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 5627 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +710 $647 88¢ $624 -$22 10-30 03:53
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026 No +623 $609 100¢ $622 +$13 10-19 18:39
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +596 $671 94¢ $563 -$109 10-30 15:05
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? No +516 $507 94¢ $485 -$23 10-30 15:10
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +660 $517 70¢ $459 -$59 10-30 10:07
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? No +565 $538 80¢ $452 -$86 10-30 18:36
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? No +391 $407 96¢ $376 -$31 10-30 16:35
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes +1,070 $1,004 29¢ $310 -$694 09-30 20:09
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +660 $241 30¢ $201 -$39 10-29 19:28
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +210 $213 95¢ $199 -$14 10-28 10:06
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 No -195 -$132 97¢ $-190 -$58 06-26 12:00
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes +265 $223 70¢ $184 -$39 10-11 07:49
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +208 $194 88¢ $182 -$11 10-29 14:57
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +200 $239 91¢ $182 -$57 10-30 20:51
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? Yes +795 $237 20¢ $159 -$78 10-30 18:37
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No -156 -$123 95¢ $-148 -$25 10-29 21:47
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No +308 $159 46¢ $142 -$17 10-29 23:00
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +159 $143 84¢ $133 -$10 07-16 23:36
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No +152 $136 71¢ $108 -$28 10-06 14:02
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +220 $79 36¢ $78 -$1 10-30 08:59
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +1,320 $125 6¢ $77 -$48 10-29 17:31
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +798 $116 9¢ $73 -$43 10-30 07:28
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? No +213 $200 25¢ $53 -$147 10-29 20:37
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? No +134 $72 34¢ $46 -$26 10-30 23:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -36 $18 99¢ $-36 -$54 10-23 13:22
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T? Yes +210 $58 14¢ $29 -$29 10-28 11:54
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +159 $201 16¢ $25 -$176 10-14 19:58
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? Yes +35 $24 58¢ $20 -$3 10-28 13:36
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? Yes +117 $42 16¢ $19 -$23 10-28 02:37
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +361 $84 3¢ $11 -$73 10-22 11:12