Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
open
Total volume
$13,203
$15 in 24h
Trades
319
Unique wallets
99
Liquidity
$14,333
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-04 05:15
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+82.3¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $318
vs crowd: 18% YES on $6.6K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 10 | $638 | $978 | $340 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 33 | $230 | $4.0K | $3.8K |
| 🐟 Fish | 30 | $143 | $436 | $293 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 26 | $167 | $67 | +$99 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $318 | — | +$318 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 10 | $135 | $3.4K | $3.3K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $8 | $11 | $3 |
| Median | 4 | $5 | $2 | +$3 |
| Below median | 10 | $261 | $408 | $147 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 8 | $29 | $393 | $364 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 10 | $111 | $588 | $477 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $118 | $128 | $10 |
| unranked | 44 | $192 | $520 | $328 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unaware-Jackal 0x8964…0bec | No | +2,924 | $2,572 | $2,572 | 7 | 06-16 01:17 |
| Fearful-Congress 0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | +1,947 | $258 | $289 | 4 | 05-31 18:39 |
| Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | No | +966 | $850 | $850 | 6 | 06-15 19:37 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +518 | $45 | $82 | 4 | 06-25 12:21 |
| Tough-Garter 0x03c8…0e01 | Yes | +460 | $41 | $48 | 8 | 06-21 23:44 |
| Punctual-Hydrogen 0x8b44…63fb | Yes | +235 | $23 | $23 | 2 | 06-08 06:16 |
| Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | Yes | +200 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 07-01 11:14 |
| Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | No | +195 | $173 | $633 | 9 | 06-16 00:21 |
| Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | +180 | $23 | $23 | 2 | 06-15 19:37 |
| Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | No | +180 | $159 | $159 | 2 | 06-15 19:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +176 | $31 | $113 | 26 | 07-02 11:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x3387…c3f7 | Yes | +154 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-15 19:37 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | +125 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-04 13:03 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | +125 | $112 | $328 | 3 | 06-16 00:21 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +124 | $12 | $13 | 3 | 06-28 14:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x9d30…5f57 | Yes | +122 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-05 11:06 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +100 | $10 | $18 | 3 | 06-16 00:24 |
| Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | Yes | +90 | $13 | $43 | 7 | 06-16 00:23 |
| Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | +90 | $84 | $165 | 4 | 06-08 05:55 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +84 | $8 | $32 | 4 | 06-30 22:30 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | +71 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-30 22:30 |
| Shimmering-Corruption 0x5968…3fc4 | Yes | +69 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 05-31 18:50 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +60 | $55 | $88 | 2 | 05-31 18:50 |
| Melodic-Portion 0x772d…0deb | No | +59 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 06-02 05:12 |
| Chief-Dream 0x1e34…bf7b | Yes | +49 | $4 | $4 | 5 | 06-28 14:36 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +35 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 06-16 00:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x994c…e58d | Yes | +29 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-04 05:15 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +25 | $22 | $78 | 5 | 06-16 00:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x755b…0cd5 | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-16 00:21 |
| Humming-Macaw 0xfc92…27c9 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-08 06:17 |
| Essential-Diarist 0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-28 14:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x0f0e…ff21 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-26 13:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x22ce…c001 | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-01 02:44 |
| Humming-Macaw 0xfc92…27c9 | No | +20 | $20 | $69 | 3 | 06-08 06:17 |
| Homely-Field 0x51f2…38ef | Yes | +18 | $2 | $2 | 3 | 05-29 20:11 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +15 | $4 | $20 | 9 | 06-11 20:41 |
| Whimsical-Harmony 0xf24f…80e3 | Yes | +15 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-02 05:12 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +15 | $1 | $11 | 8 | 06-26 13:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x7a83…a220 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-30 04:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x7a63…b4ef | Yes | +13 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-01 02:44 |
| Glorious-Bacterium 0xadd2…9d0f | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-31 19:32 |
| Luminous-Insectarium 0x34dc…d280 | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-01 13:47 |
| Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | +7 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 07-04 05:15 |
| Discrete-Installation 0x3b01…3377 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-03 05:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xab7e…1a5f | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-01 02:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 05:15:32 | (anonymous) 0x994c…e58d | Yes | BUY | 29 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x4fb75f… |
| 07-04 05:15:32 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x4fb75f… |
| 07-04 05:15:32 | Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | BUY | 7 | 93¢ | $7 | 0x4fb75f… |
| 07-02 11:22:53 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 13 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xc2296a… |
| 07-02 11:22:53 | (anonymous) 0x6bf9…82fe | No | SELL | 13 | 93¢ | $12 | 0xc2296a… |
| 07-02 11:18:34 | (anonymous) 0x2f9c…c70f | No | SELL | 11 | 93¢ | $10 | 0x23a25a… |
| 07-02 11:18:34 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 11 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x23a25a… |
| 07-02 11:12:02 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x02c9c3… |
| 07-02 11:12:02 | (anonymous) 0xf585…3256 | No | SELL | 16 | 93¢ | $15 | 0x02c9c3… |
| 07-02 11:12:02 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 11 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x02c9c3… |
| 07-02 11:09:19 | (anonymous) 0x53a7…2b66 | No | SELL | 12 | 93¢ | $11 | 0xd7632b… |
| 07-02 11:09:19 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xd7632b… |
| 07-02 11:06:01 | (anonymous) 0x7ce0…23f9 | No | SELL | 11 | 93¢ | $10 | 0x77449f… |
| 07-02 11:06:01 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x77449f… |
| 07-01 11:14:43 | Active-Lifestyle 0x6a85…37c8 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 6¢ | $12 | 0x4ab95c… |
| 07-01 11:14:43 | Tremendous-Divide 0xe154…0b7f | Yes | BUY | 200 | 6¢ | $12 | 0x4ab95c… |
| 06-30 22:30:38 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x46a25f… |
| 06-30 22:30:38 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x46a25f… |
| 06-30 04:55:13 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xb3ff34… |
| 06-30 04:55:13 | (anonymous) 0x7a83…a220 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xb3ff34… |
| 06-28 15:00:55 | (anonymous) 0xac69…fb3e | No | SELL | 11 | 93¢ | $10 | 0x90e892… |
| 06-28 15:00:55 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 11 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x90e892… |
| 06-28 14:57:38 | (anonymous) 0x3238…4282 | No | SELL | 13 | 93¢ | $12 | 0x8de1de… |
| 06-28 14:57:38 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 13 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x8de1de… |
| 06-28 14:38:46 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xb2caff… |
| 06-28 14:38:46 | Essential-Diarist 0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xb2caff… |
| 06-28 14:38:07 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x1a732b… |
| 06-28 14:38:07 | Stale-Armoire 0xca1f…d282 | No | SELL | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0x1a732b… |
| 06-28 14:36:55 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xa825a7… |
| 06-28 14:36:55 | Incomparable-Surprise 0x0482…6b0a | Yes | SELL | 888 | 7¢ | $62 | 0xa825a7… |
| 06-28 14:36:55 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xa825a7… |
| 06-28 14:36:55 | Chief-Dream 0x1e34…bf7b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xa825a7… |
| 06-28 14:36:55 | Grounded-Snug 0xbfb3…4b43 | No | SELL | 847 | 93¢ | $787 | 0xa825a7… |
| 06-28 13:45:47 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x6fbaa1… |
| 06-28 13:45:47 | (anonymous) 0xb146…c098 | No | SELL | 10 | 92¢ | $10 | 0x6fbaa1… |
| 06-26 13:20:03 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x75c24b… |
| 06-26 13:20:03 | (anonymous) 0x0f0e…ff21 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x75c24b… |
| 06-26 13:20:03 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 7 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x75c24b… |
| 06-25 14:52:41 | Grounded-Snug 0xbfb3…4b43 | No | SELL | 27 | 93¢ | $25 | 0x51f407… |
| 06-25 14:52:41 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 27 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x51f407… |
| 06-25 12:21:20 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 332 | 8¢ | $27 | 0x4c81c1… |
| 06-25 12:21:20 | Chief-Dream 0x1e34…bf7b | Yes | BUY | 14 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x4c81c1… |
| 06-25 12:21:20 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 318 | 8¢ | $25 | 0x4c81c1… |
| 06-25 12:21:05 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xb5c9c0… |
| 06-25 12:21:05 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xb5c9c0… |
| 06-25 12:21:05 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xb5c9c0… |
| 06-25 12:21:05 | Chief-Dream 0x1e34…bf7b | Yes | BUY | 4 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xb5c9c0… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | Incomparable-Surprise 0x0482…6b0a | Yes | SELL | 888 | 10¢ | $88 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 19 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | Striped-Employ 0x5768…08fd | No | SELL | 240 | 90¢ | $216 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | Joyful-Glutamate 0xe9c7…147a | No | SELL | 66 | 90¢ | $60 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 332 | 10¢ | $33 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 124 | 10¢ | $12 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | Uneven-Neighborhood 0xc81c…e454 | Yes | BUY | 70 | 9¢ | $6 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | Chief-Dream 0x1e34…bf7b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-25 12:21:02 | (anonymous) 0xd43f…c66b | Yes | BUY | 10 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x607b9a… |
| 06-24 05:05:11 | Plaintive-Ping 0xd44c…28c5 | No | SELL | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0xf0b5c1… |
| 06-24 05:05:11 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 11¢ | $0 | 0xf0b5c1… |
| 06-24 04:00:43 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x9a9842… |
| 06-24 04:00:43 | (anonymous) 0xa66f…3636 | No | SELL | 10 | 89¢ | $9 | 0x9a9842… |
| 06-21 23:44:13 | Tough-Garter 0x03c8…0e01 | Yes | SELL | 35 | 10¢ | $4 | 0x188536… |
| 06-21 23:44:13 | Striped-Employ 0x5768…08fd | No | SELL | 35 | 90¢ | $32 | 0x188536… |
| 06-19 12:34:29 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x39f946… |
| 06-19 12:34:29 | (anonymous) 0xa8a0…d5a0 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x39f946… |
| 06-18 23:59:29 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xfaf7b0… |
| 06-18 23:59:29 | Ripe-Pod 0xd038…3142 | No | SELL | 6 | 89¢ | $5 | 0xfaf7b0… |
| 06-17 12:00:47 | Striped-Employ 0x5768…08fd | No | SELL | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0x256ecc… |
| 06-17 12:00:47 | Frightening-Rainmaker 0x43fd…59d3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x256ecc… |
| 06-17 00:00:37 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | SELL | 22 | 89¢ | $20 | 0xd5fbf1… |
| 06-17 00:00:37 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 22 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xd5fbf1… |
| 06-17 00:00:34 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 20 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x6808b8… |
| 06-17 00:00:34 | Frightening-Rainmaker 0x43fd…59d3 | No | SELL | 20 | 89¢ | $18 | 0x6808b8… |
| 06-16 05:35:58 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0xfe59be… |
| 06-16 05:35:58 | Striped-Employ 0x5768…08fd | No | SELL | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0xfe59be… |
| 06-16 02:13:57 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x2e1bae… |
| 06-16 02:13:57 | Tough-Garter 0x03c8…0e01 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x2e1bae… |
| 06-16 01:17:09 | Unaware-Jackal 0x8964…0bec | No | BUY | 21 | 90¢ | $19 | 0x514e04… |
| 06-16 01:17:09 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x514e04… |
| 06-16 00:24:04 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 10¢ | $10 | 0x744ac3… |
| 06-16 00:24:04 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 10¢ | $10 | 0x744ac3… |
| 06-16 00:24:04 | Unaware-Jackal 0x8964…0bec | No | BUY | 200 | 90¢ | $180 | 0x744ac3… |
| 06-16 00:23:04 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | Yes | SELL | 35 | 9¢ | $3 | 0x181a8f… |
| 06-16 00:23:04 | Tough-Garter 0x03c8…0e01 | Yes | BUY | 35 | 9¢ | $3 | 0x181a8f… |
| 06-16 00:23:01 | Tough-Garter 0x03c8…0e01 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 9¢ | $4 | 0x065715… |
| 06-16 00:23:01 | Useful-Patty 0xe086…0450 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 9¢ | $4 | 0x065715… |
| 06-16 00:23:00 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 6 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x24c5d2… |
| 06-16 00:23:00 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | Yes | SELL | 35 | 10¢ | $3 | 0x24c5d2… |
| 06-16 00:23:00 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x24c5d2… |
| 06-16 00:23:00 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 7 | 90¢ | $6 | 0x24c5d2… |
| 06-16 00:22:43 | Unaware-Jackal 0x8964…0bec | No | BUY | 408 | 89¢ | $363 | 0x83d773… |
| 06-16 00:22:43 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 246 | 11¢ | $27 | 0x83d773… |
| 06-16 00:22:43 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | BUY | 114 | 11¢ | $13 | 0x83d773… |
| 06-16 00:22:43 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 11¢ | $3 | 0x83d773… |
| 06-16 00:21:22 | Useful-Patty 0xe086…0450 | Yes | SELL | 111 | 12¢ | $13 | 0xca24e0… |
| 06-16 00:21:22 | Wide-Eyed-Dark 0x167a…91d5 | No | SELL | 111 | 88¢ | $98 | 0xca24e0… |
| 06-16 00:21:13 | Unaware-Jackal 0x8964…0bec | No | BUY | 1,194 | 87¢ | $1,039 | 0x954c23… |
| 06-16 00:21:13 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x954c23… |
| 06-16 00:21:13 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 117 | 12¢ | $14 | 0x954c23… |