Tough-Garter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.47K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.6%

Resolved

Trades

1,440

lifetime

Volume

$55.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-03 13:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

59% 50% +$2,466

Other

33% 33% +$9

Tech

4% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	6	$3.4K	6,500	5,000	+1,500	Yes	+$2,522	05-09 17:26
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by january 24 671	25	$2.8K	5,994	6,000	-6	open	—	01-24 23:45
odds us strikes iran by feb 28 over 20 on friday 575	3	$2.7K	1,502	1,502	+0	open	—	02-20 09:42
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	9	$1.7K	750	2,500	-1,750	open	—	01-11 15:03
will israel take military action in gaza on march 18 2026	6	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-19 12:13
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	15	$1.6K	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	02-17 18:38
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	40	$1.2K	8,874	8,674	+200	open	—	04-30 01:25
will trump drink water during the state of the union	14	$1.2K	1,602	1,602	+0	open	—	02-25 09:03
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-03 07:53
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	6	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-09 02:40
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	11	$1.1K	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	07-31 16:04
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	8	$1.1K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-01 18:42
another us strike on venezuela by january 31 867	9	$1.1K	3,000	2,000	+1,000	open	—	01-08 17:05
will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	1	$998	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-04 12:15
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	11	$986	767	767	+0	open	—	05-15 17:17
starmer out by july 31 2026	2	$886	500	500	+0	open	—	06-20 21:29
will iran strike israel on march 10	22	$850	3,417	3,417	+0	open	—	03-10 21:00
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?	7	$845	634	634	+0	open	—	02-22 23:51
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	43	$772	6,874	6,874	+0	open	—	05-11 20:04
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	3	$702	750	750	+0	open	—	04-20 22:02
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	5	$674	500	1,000	-500	open	—	01-10 22:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	34	$615	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	01-09 09:52
us strikes iraq by march 7	11	$601	1,100	500	+600	open	—	03-08 04:23
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	11	$600	3,000	500	+2,500	open	—	02-28 15:44
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	2	$575	500	500	+0	open	—	02-22 14:54
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	2	$559	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	02-08 14:33
will steve harrington die in stranger things season 5	15	$554	1,750	1,750	+0	open	—	01-01 01:06
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	11	$547	3,750	1,000	+2,750	open	—	01-15 03:31
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	2	$541	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-05 15:22
will timothe chalamet attend the oscars	2	$531	532	0	+532	open	—	03-15 23:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 13:05:17	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,322	25¢	$330	0x347118…
08-03 09:30:51	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	267	25¢	$67	0xcb0b97…
08-03 09:29:44	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	25¢	$45	0x97edfd…
08-03 09:22:59	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xcb39b0…
08-03 09:03:59	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	25¢	$7	0xea854a…
08-02 21:10:21	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0xbaaea1…
08-02 21:10:21	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	25¢	$34	0x9ebdd1…
08-01 14:40:14	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,000	7¢	$140	0xad510e…
07-31 16:04:38	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	800	42¢	$334	0x0f5636…
07-31 16:01:45	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	200	45¢	$91	0xd7355b…
07-31 12:16:06	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	500	35¢	$175	0xc58ec5…
07-30 22:12:20	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	73	96¢	$70	0xaaf442…
07-30 22:12:03	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0xcdc6eb…
07-30 21:17:24	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	BUY	85	22¢	$19	0x83e199…
07-30 14:35:09	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	1,500	18¢	$262	0xe8fafd…
07-29 22:33:44	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	49	14¢	$7	0x4bcc2a…
07-29 22:32:51	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	701	15¢	$107	0x20efeb…
07-29 21:54:48	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	250	15¢	$37	0xe87daa…
07-29 21:53:09	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	166	15¢	$25	0x7e4a84…
07-29 21:52:30	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	24	15¢	$4	0x2f1b01…
07-29 21:49:53	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	235	15¢	$35	0x2d2b08…
07-29 21:49:50	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	75	15¢	$11	0x123035…
07-26 13:52:22	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	30¢	$91	0x131ef1…
07-25 21:49:34	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	604	7¢	$42	0x3524a3…
07-25 16:52:04	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xc50b23…
07-25 16:52:04	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6ebc8b…
07-25 12:27:13	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	869	7¢	$61	0x440d36…
07-25 11:34:51	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,641	2¢	$89	0x1f05b5…
07-17 07:06:28	SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,791	5¢	$84	0x8c2ac6…
07-13 12:30:53	iran military action against a gulf state on july 12 20260708212322937	No	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x5d8406…
07-11 01:14:23	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	750	22¢	$165	0xc7ec21…
07-01 00:44:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	250	3¢	$8	0x03d04e…
06-30 23:33:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	228	58¢	$132	0x6506cc…
06-30 23:19:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	22	58¢	$13	0x655cee…
06-23 11:39:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	187	29¢	$54	0xd76d7b…
06-23 08:34:25	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x581009…
06-23 05:20:59	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0x837dac…
06-23 00:04:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	157	29¢	$46	0x8c1653…
06-22 22:21:44	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	80	29¢	$23	0xa06427…
06-22 21:54:07	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	29¢	$12	0x7b5966…
06-22 21:33:55	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	141	29¢	$41	0xcf1ae4…
06-22 21:33:41	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	115	29¢	$33	0x1210fb…
06-22 02:16:04	Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	5¢	$1	0x61010d…
06-21 23:47:50	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	15¢	$38	0x7cc94e…
06-21 23:44:37	Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?	Yes	SELL	87	10¢	$9	0x821423…
06-21 23:44:13	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	10¢	$4	0x188536…
06-21 05:31:55	Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x2f3a7b…
06-20 21:29:40	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	500	86¢	$431	0x950d96…
06-20 21:19:19	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x27e4ab…
06-20 20:17:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	1,000	14¢	$142	0xe49206…
06-20 19:46:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	1,000	19¢	$188	0x463fba…
06-18 22:40:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	Yes	BUY	489	8¢	$37	0x591b50…
06-18 22:32:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x02e0fd…
06-16 03:06:54	Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x6d29a8…
06-16 02:13:57	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x2e1bae…
06-16 00:23:04	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	9¢	$3	0x181a8f…
06-16 00:23:01	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0x065715…
06-15 01:02:16	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x2c9202…
06-13 00:33:03	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	9¢	$3	0x5d6d79…
06-07 20:55:43	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	600	8¢	$49	0x17e30a…
06-07 13:23:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	20¢	$200	0x05c314…
06-07 06:40:55	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	BUY	327	9¢	$29	0x3cc7c5…
06-07 00:37:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,500	14¢	$350	0xaea2a6…
06-06 23:06:13	Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x1fd65b…
06-06 19:50:24	Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?	Yes	BUY	29	11¢	$3	0x2b3055…
06-06 19:50:00	Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?	Yes	BUY	38	9¢	$3	0x5aee75…
06-03 12:11:29	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Yes	BUY	164	6¢	$9	0x5ddaf7…
06-01 22:42:58	Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad?	Yes	BUY	598	3¢	$18	0x37c6d2…
06-01 19:50:01	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,336	6¢	$133	0x193a40…
06-01 15:47:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	356	46¢	$165	0x551fda…
06-01 15:45:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	144	46¢	$66	0xb1663a…
05-31 23:54:58	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,500	1¢	$20	0xc576f1…
05-31 21:58:42	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,500	2¢	$24	0x0205b4…
05-31 00:25:19	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0x28421f…
05-30 16:14:09	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x6bb50d…
05-29 22:07:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	386	1¢	$3	0x7e1579…
05-23 22:01:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	SELL	1,000	13¢	$130	0xe8fa53…
05-23 17:04:04	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	412	28¢	$115	0xf91064…
05-23 16:55:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0xaaef68…
05-23 16:54:26	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	388	28¢	$109	0xfbfb22…
05-16 21:20:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,500	5¢	$75	0x302d55…
05-15 17:17:07	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	327	100¢	$326	0x82f7b8…
05-15 17:16:51	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xa25939…
05-15 17:16:46	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	260	100¢	$259	0xbed214…
05-15 17:16:04	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xab0e9a…
05-15 17:15:15	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	92	100¢	$92	0x6edcd8…
05-15 17:15:11	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x62d19f…
05-15 17:14:50	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xcebbf3…
05-15 17:14:47	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xbdf8e9…
05-15 13:19:51	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	623	29¢	$180	0x3c5177…
05-15 13:12:30	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0xbf8f67…
05-15 13:12:26	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	136	28¢	$38	0x68d5c9…
05-13 21:46:05	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 10000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	No	SELL	192	4¢	$8	0x13614c…
05-13 21:43:05	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 11000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	No	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0x870b81…
05-13 21:37:43	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 10000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	No	BUY	225	10¢	$22	0x45e63c…
05-13 21:31:42	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 10000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	BUY	32	89¢	$29	0x20f205…
05-13 21:30:39	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 11000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	No	SELL	92	76¢	$70	0x7bb0ea…
05-13 21:28:04	Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 11000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	No	BUY	98	54¢	$53	0xcc08b0…
05-13 20:25:53	Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??	No	SELL	500	16¢	$81	0x14571e…
05-13 19:42:04	Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??	No	BUY	250	21¢	$52	0xdb785e…