Tough-Garter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7.38K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.26K

Hit rate

47.2%

Resolved

275

Trades

1,724

lifetime

Volume

$85.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

$850

15 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 22:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 119 days

Categories

Politics

50% 35% +$2,662

Other

39% 39% +$662

Tech

7% 62% +$2,834

Crypto

2% 12% +$682

Sports

2% 20% +$567

Pop-Culture

1% 50% -$25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	+1,925	$1,137	12¢	$241	-$897	10-09 17:38
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+3,500	$245	3¢	$110	-$135	08-01 14:40
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Yes	+2,500	$142	4¢	$90	-$52	06-03 12:11
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	-2,500	-$350	3¢	$-71	+$279	06-07 00:37
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Yes	+182	$178	34¢	$62	-$116	10-29 17:35
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	No	+10,000	$84	1¢	$55	-$29	10-31 00:55
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	-323	-$101	17¢	$-55	+$46	07-26 13:52
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	+1,000	$200	3¢	$34	-$166	06-07 13:23
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	+33	$25	89¢	$30	+$5	10-05 20:32
SBF released from custody in 2026?	Yes	+1,791	$84	2¢	$28	-$56	07-17 07:06
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	+1,319	$156	2¢	$24	-$132	10-14 18:25
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Yes	+500	$45	5¢	$23	-$22	06-21 23:44
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	-126	-$57	11¢	$-14	+$43	05-04 08:40
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	+250	$38	5¢	$12	-$25	06-21 23:47
Will Hull City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+1,128	$1	0¢	$2	+$1	10-21 18:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	14	$4.2K	5,000	2,500	+2,500	Yes	-$1,384	10-25 20:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	6	$3.4K	6,500	5,000	+1,500	Yes	+$2,522	05-09 17:26
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by january 24 671	25	$2.8K	5,994	6,000	-6	No	+$94	01-24 23:45
odds us strikes iran by feb 28 over 20 on friday 575	3	$2.7K	1,502	1,502	+0	Yes	-$35	02-20 09:42
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	9	$2.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	-$46	10-19 17:10
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	5	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$1	10-09 09:09
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	9	$1.7K	750	2,500	-1,750	Yes	-$405	01-11 15:03
will israel take military action in gaza on march 18 2026	6	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$334	03-19 12:13
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	15	$1.6K	2,250	2,250	+0	No	+$580	02-17 18:38
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	11	$1.5K	5,531	1,331	+4,200	No	+$2,019	10-29 17:33
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	6	$1.3K	1,100	1,100	+0	Up	+$812	10-05 18:27
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	3	$1.3K	4,000	1,000	+3,000	Yes	+$2,290	09-30 18:44
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	40	$1.2K	8,874	8,674	+200	Yes	-$62	04-30 01:25
will trump drink water during the state of the union	14	$1.2K	1,602	1,602	+0	No	-$16	02-25 09:03
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	3	$1.1K	1,925	0	+1,925	open	—	10-09 17:38
will israel or the us target isfahan nuclear technology center nuclear facility	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$863	04-03 07:53
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	6	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$606	02-09 02:40
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	11	$1.1K	2,250	2,250	+0	No	+$338	07-31 16:04
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	8	$1.1K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	09-20 17:39
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	8	$1.1K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$188	03-01 18:42
another us strike on venezuela by january 31 867	9	$1.1K	3,000	2,000	+1,000	No	-$383	01-08 17:05
will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	1	$998	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$2	03-04 12:15
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	11	$986	767	767	+0	No	+$546	05-15 17:17
starmer out by july 31 2026	2	$886	500	500	+0	Yes	-$24	06-20 21:29
will iran strike israel on march 10	22	$850	3,417	3,417	+0	Yes	+$152	03-10 21:00
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?	7	$845	634	634	+0	Yes	+$367	02-22 23:51
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	5	$830	500	500	+0	Yes	-$10	05-11 21:46
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30?	3	$796	401	401	+0	Yes	+$4	10-06 09:44
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	43	$772	6,874	6,874	+0	No	+$3	05-11 20:04
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	3	$702	750	750	+0	No	-$124	04-20 22:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 22:04:24	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	BUY	101	27¢	$27	0xd622d7…
10-31 00:55:16	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	10,000	1¢	$84	0x75e7d6…
10-29 19:05:00	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,500	7¢	$101	0x4bee3f…
10-29 17:35:52	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Yes	SELL	318	43¢	$138	0x4fc567…
10-29 17:35:32	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	374	96¢	$360	0xf08a35…
10-29 17:35:16	Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?	No	SELL	135	95¢	$129	0xaeaf57…
10-29 17:34:47	Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31?	Yes	SELL	590	26¢	$154	0x82df97…
10-29 17:33:59	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	650	95¢	$619	0xfe0134…
10-29 14:11:08	Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,641	2¢	$70	0x78d521…
10-28 12:38:59	Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$8	0xb8831f…
10-27 22:27:05	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,500	12¢	$178	0xd16786…
10-26 20:28:09	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,249	45¢	$557	0xc285ea…
10-25 20:24:50	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	243	56¢	$136	0x8c190d…
10-25 20:24:50	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	60	56¢	$34	0x85e689…
10-25 20:24:50	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	1,097	56¢	$614	0x4b63ba…
10-25 20:24:50	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	296	56¢	$166	0x48c8d4…
10-25 20:24:50	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	700	56¢	$392	0x3bb3cf…
10-25 20:24:50	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	81	56¢	$45	0x0d7995…
10-25 20:23:02	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	23	56¢	$13	0x48cd2e…
10-25 19:41:51	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	3,500	60¢	$2,100	0x10270f…
10-25 18:39:06	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	500	54¢	$268	0xaabf54…
10-25 12:09:17	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	319	42¢	$134	0x7a9332…
10-25 12:09:05	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	181	42¢	$76	0x4f6625…
10-25 10:19:23	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	311	36¢	$112	0x19c206…
10-25 10:19:17	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xc07975…
10-25 09:49:06	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	184	50¢	$92	0x8f45a7…
10-25 06:57:36	Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027?	Yes	BUY	279	2¢	$6	0xe16ebc…
10-23 19:03:06	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x9bb3c2…
10-23 17:44:56	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0x82924d…
10-23 08:30:30	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	21	78¢	$16	0x2f026f…
10-22 19:30:50	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	198	77¢	$153	0x3132f6…
10-22 16:52:14	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	94	100¢	$94	0x0702aa…
10-22 16:23:32	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 22?	No	SELL	106	7¢	$7	0x01fa8c…
10-22 16:22:44	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 22?	No	BUY	106	15¢	$16	0xc0debd…
10-21 18:38:26	Will Hull City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	1,128	0¢	$1	0x369014…
10-20 21:10:15	OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	321	35¢	$112	0x894d96…
10-19 17:10:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	1,500	65¢	$981	0x738886…
10-19 16:56:18	Paris curfew by October 21?	Yes	BUY	55	88¢	$49	0xffa9dc…
10-19 16:35:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	232	77¢	$179	0xb1fe75…
10-19 16:18:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x00b188…
10-19 16:18:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x3157ac…
10-19 16:18:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x20a918…
10-19 16:18:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x45506a…
10-19 16:17:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	434	68¢	$295	0x457525…
10-19 16:16:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	508	66¢	$336	0x9b15be…
10-19 16:16:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	290	67¢	$194	0xf1aa6c…
10-19 14:10:27	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	655	3¢	$17	0x0f6c69…
10-16 20:27:15	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2,050	3¢	$70	0xa5764c…
10-16 20:18:38	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,500	27¢	$411	0xba6b68…
10-16 20:17:54	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,050	13¢	$262	0x5817b5…
10-16 20:12:44	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Yes	BUY	300	64¢	$192	0xb3624d…
10-16 20:12:18	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0xfe0d16…
10-15 20:49:23	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x1b18cd…
10-14 18:25:31	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	BUY	53	10¢	$5	0x6ca24e…
10-14 18:09:07	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0xbacc14…
10-14 11:31:41	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	BUY	1,241	12¢	$148	0x2f4467…
10-13 23:13:37	Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	SELL	345	5¢	$16	0x65eee3…
10-09 18:15:08	Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	BUY	345	17¢	$60	0x07b70e…
10-09 17:44:58	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	750	26¢	$192	0x816dca…
10-09 17:38:59	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	737	45¢	$331	0xcc73b8…
10-09 15:47:55	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	951	3¢	$25	0xcabed2…
10-09 14:58:58	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10,894	3¢	$283	0x05d463…
10-09 13:28:54	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	590	68¢	$404	0x5bccba…
10-09 13:18:58	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	598	67¢	$403	0xe1180b…
10-09 09:09:12	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	699	100¢	$697	0xf88b50…
10-09 09:09:09	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x2d2344…
10-09 09:08:30	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd12ea2…
10-09 09:08:06	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xb6d3c9…
10-09 09:05:45	Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0xe459a8…
10-09 08:54:58	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0x14ef96…
10-09 08:54:52	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x47877c…
10-09 08:28:52	Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xf06b99…
10-09 08:28:52	Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x4adb05…
10-09 08:28:46	Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x411b1d…
10-09 07:26:18	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x4415e2…
10-08 10:51:26	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	47	71¢	$34	0x824e08…
10-08 10:51:06	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	193	73¢	$141	0xf1b1b7…
10-08 10:46:21	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	208	70¢	$146	0x4fe940…
10-08 10:45:36	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	182	49¢	$89	0xce9e6e…
10-08 10:43:36	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	293	57¢	$166	0x2f0f13…
10-08 09:51:36	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xff9827…
10-08 09:51:36	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xfe4661…
10-08 09:51:36	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0xe6a70e…
10-08 09:51:36	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	30,343	0¢	$30	0xa7cddd…
10-08 09:51:35	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xde1ce7…
10-08 09:51:35	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb08c03…
10-08 09:51:33	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	4,999	0¢	$5	0x0b2a6c…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	5,005	0¢	$5	0xf4e172…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xc75a3b…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	5,914	0¢	$6	0xc617d8…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	7,384	0¢	$7	0x9e3112…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	556	0¢	$1	0x8eacc7…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	6,958	0¢	$7	0x7c44e4…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	505	0¢	$1	0x7b7e99…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	747	0¢	$1	0x5eb4c3…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8,687	0¢	$9	0x5e771f…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	403	0¢	$0	0x1c994a…
10-08 09:51:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 2?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x08e9fe…
10-07 21:18:34	Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x8d79c8…
10-07 21:16:58	Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	25¢	$22	0x4a65d6…