Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,769,875
$16,536 in 24h
Trades
27,465
Unique wallets
2,352
Liquidity
$84,310
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-06 06:26
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-5.0¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $106.2K
vs crowd: 5% YES on $1.27M)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 50 | $2.2K | $578.0K | $575.8K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 106 | $3.3K | $301.6K | $298.3K |
| 🐟 Fish | 314 | $45.9K | $217.2K | $171.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 1,882 | $13.7K | $106.1K | $92.5K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 17 | $145 | $106.1K | $105.9K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 39 | $386 | $65.7K | $65.4K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 29 | $2 | $17.8K | $17.8K |
| Median | 341 | $88 | $159.1K | $159.0K |
| Below median | 184 | $510 | $30.5K | $30.0K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 27 | $162 | $18.4K | $18.3K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 22 | $3.9K | $50.5K | $46.6K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 20 | $4.6K | $37.1K | $32.5K |
| unranked | 1,673 | $55.3K | $717.7K | $662.4K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frightened-Trouble 0x7f3c…5613 | No | +301,848 | $279,192 | $279,192 | 78 | 06-29 21:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x2783…b7f2 | Yes | +172,185 | $13,476 | $13,476 | 14 | 06-24 14:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x60b9…6117 | Yes | +160,973 | $12,180 | $12,180 | 21 | 06-26 18:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x76d8…68fc | Yes | +155,865 | $11,142 | $11,142 | 64 | 07-11 03:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x7ded…c36d | Yes | +97,413 | $5,661 | $5,661 | 7 | 08-04 20:02 |
| Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | +92,993 | $86,517 | $88,730 | 64 | 08-05 21:09 |
| Admired-Omission 0x495e…9a96 | Yes | +49,201 | $4,015 | $4,015 | 7 | 06-17 19:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x7fb8…fc42 | No | +40,930 | $37,859 | $37,859 | 15 | 07-01 02:59 |
| Shimmering-Reindeer 0xf6ea…0a00 | No | +24,850 | $23,099 | $23,099 | 23 | 08-02 04:47 |
| Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | +23,000 | $21,640 | $60,672 | 40 | 08-01 20:53 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +21,821 | $20,339 | $20,339 | 61 | 08-04 22:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +20,567 | $19,289 | $19,289 | 40 | 08-02 04:47 |
| Kind-Nanoparticle 0xad60…97f4 | No | +17,200 | $16,150 | $16,150 | 26 | 08-02 19:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x5845…c328 | No | +11,530 | $10,521 | $10,521 | 6 | 06-26 18:00 |
| Offbeat-Thesis 0xc1a5…f290 | No | +11,342 | $10,477 | $10,477 | 8 | 06-27 23:08 |
| Unaware-Jackal 0x8964…0bec | No | +11,135 | $10,318 | $10,318 | 69 | 07-09 08:41 |
| Immaterial-Advantage 0xf85f…9800 | No | +10,648 | $10,000 | $10,000 | 2 | 07-26 10:15 |
| Altruistic-Mochi 0x397e…fd1d | No | +9,101 | $8,459 | $8,459 | 6 | 07-06 18:16 |
| Gentle-Necklace 0x8508…9fda | Yes | +8,947 | $868 | $4,281 | 43 | 07-24 20:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x3d18…1160 | No | +8,000 | $7,504 | $7,504 | 1 | 08-02 04:47 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +7,734 | $553 | $553 | 123 | 06-29 18:10 |
| Worthless-Summer 0xe29e…fa35 | Yes | +7,661 | $740 | $4,314 | 40 | 07-06 03:47 |
| Rough-Dimple 0x18ab…bae4 | No | +7,639 | $7,180 | $7,180 | 30 | 08-02 16:25 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +7,362 | $6,856 | $11,213 | 120 | 06-30 16:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x8539…a6e1 | No | +7,049 | $6,522 | $6,522 | 21 | 07-06 18:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x00e2…c17d | No | +6,700 | $6,092 | $52,139 | 210 | 08-04 19:59 |
| Specific-Caddy 0xf7eb…31c3 | No | +6,365 | $5,911 | $5,911 | 9 | 08-05 13:17 |
| Superb-Island 0x7cf6…af1e | No | +6,289 | $5,713 | $239,968 | 756 | 08-05 20:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x9fdc…8111 | No | +6,200 | $5,791 | $16,485 | 13 | 08-02 04:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xf29f…5cca | No | +6,000 | $5,368 | $20,212 | 12 | 06-30 10:36 |
| Unaware-Pipe 0x31c5…ede4 | No | +6,000 | $5,538 | $5,538 | 14 | 06-15 09:14 |
| Another-Allowance 0xdafd…5ffb | No | +5,546 | $5,203 | $5,203 | 6 | 08-05 22:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xbe9c…3be9 | No | +5,500 | $4,866 | $55,278 | 65 | 08-02 04:47 |
| Trusty-Guidance 0x8055…44c4 | No | +5,000 | $4,725 | $4,725 | 2 | 08-05 14:29 |
| Empty-Addiction 0x4818…bf0b | No | +4,992 | $4,702 | $4,702 | 48 | 07-26 07:25 |
| Shallow-Polyp 0x39b0…07d1 | No | +4,975 | $4,617 | $4,617 | 15 | 06-02 07:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x1592…bc9f | Yes | +4,286 | $240 | $240 | 1 | 07-30 08:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xbbc3…b736 | Yes | +4,164 | $338 | $338 | 4 | 06-30 01:57 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +3,924 | $68 | $455 | 34 | 06-15 09:14 |
| Incomplete-Cherry 0x107f…bb8c | No | +3,714 | $3,395 | $3,395 | 10 | 06-29 22:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xaec2…7cc7 | No | +3,500 | $3,289 | $3,289 | 5 | 07-26 09:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x8184…bfa7 | Yes | +2,995 | $188 | $188 | 7 | 06-29 11:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xab68…8c2e | Yes | +2,625 | $146 | $146 | 4 | 06-14 22:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xe1b5…8378 | Yes | +2,500 | $150 | $150 | 2 | 07-06 12:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xe275…4701 | Yes | +1,985 | $135 | $135 | 3 | 07-17 12:25 |
| Aching-Defender 0x3822…b720 | Yes | +1,519 | $100 | $100 | 4 | 07-27 14:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xddba…a1ed | Yes | +1,509 | $86 | $86 | 1 | 07-23 06:13 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +1,477 | $107 | $158 | 23 | 07-09 17:41 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 06:26:24 | Rectangular-Min 0x91d2…6443 | No | BUY | 7 | 95¢ | $7 | 0x1f6f26… |
| 08-06 06:26:24 | (anonymous) 0xf756…13f6 | No | SELL | 7 | 95¢ | $7 | 0x1f6f26… |
| 08-06 05:43:32 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | BUY | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x546cdf… |
| 08-06 05:43:32 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x546cdf… |
| 08-06 04:46:54 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x41bb72… |
| 08-06 04:46:54 | (anonymous) 0xf756…13f6 | No | SELL | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x41bb72… |
| 08-06 04:25:12 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x5274ca… |
| 08-06 04:25:12 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x5274ca… |
| 08-06 04:19:06 | (anonymous) 0xf756…13f6 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x1605b6… |
| 08-06 04:19:06 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x1605b6… |
| 08-06 03:50:00 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | BUY | 9 | 95¢ | $9 | 0x6fd94d… |
| 08-06 03:50:00 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 9 | 95¢ | $9 | 0x6fd94d… |
| 08-06 03:43:17 | (anonymous) 0x6d00…605a | No | SELL | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xd0696c… |
| 08-06 03:43:17 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | BUY | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xd0696c… |
| 08-06 03:43:17 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xdb000f… |
| 08-06 03:43:17 | (anonymous) 0x69f9…3c3b | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xdb000f… |
| 08-06 03:37:47 | (anonymous) 0x290c…6067 | No | BUY | 19 | 95¢ | $18 | 0x83c6dc… |
| 08-06 03:37:47 | (anonymous) 0xf756…13f6 | No | SELL | 19 | 95¢ | $18 | 0x83c6dc… |
| 08-06 03:13:32 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | BUY | 16 | 95¢ | $16 | 0x3d9ba2… |
| 08-06 03:13:32 | Favorite-Zebrafish 0xf749…3d7c | No | SELL | 16 | 95¢ | $16 | 0x3d9ba2… |
| 08-06 03:12:57 | (anonymous) 0x36db…03c1 | No | BUY | 17 | 95¢ | $16 | 0x04a824… |
| 08-06 03:12:57 | (anonymous) 0xf756…13f6 | No | SELL | 17 | 95¢ | $16 | 0x04a824… |
| 08-06 03:12:29 | Favorite-Zebrafish 0xf749…3d7c | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0x630af3… |
| 08-06 03:12:29 | (anonymous) 0xf756…13f6 | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0x630af3… |
| 08-06 03:04:36 | (anonymous) 0xf756…13f6 | No | SELL | 9 | 95¢ | $9 | 0xcc7b7d… |
| 08-06 03:04:36 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 9 | 95¢ | $9 | 0xcc7b7d… |
| 08-06 02:54:18 | Enchanted-Spruce 0xb9e9…d79c | No | BUY | 23 | 95¢ | $22 | 0x9ed084… |
| 08-06 02:54:18 | (anonymous) 0xf756…13f6 | No | SELL | 23 | 95¢ | $22 | 0x9ed084… |
| 08-06 02:27:57 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | BUY | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x1d3ce6… |
| 08-06 02:27:57 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x1d3ce6… |
| 08-06 02:19:00 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 7 | 95¢ | $7 | 0xa52b75… |
| 08-06 02:19:00 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | No | SELL | 0 | 95¢ | $0 | 0xa52b75… |
| 08-06 02:19:00 | (anonymous) 0xf756…13f6 | No | SELL | 7 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xa52b75… |
| 08-06 02:09:45 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x3a2d14… |
| 08-06 02:09:45 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x3a2d14… |
| 08-06 01:32:15 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | BUY | 12 | 95¢ | $11 | 0x687a16… |
| 08-06 01:32:15 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 12 | 95¢ | $11 | 0x687a16… |
| 08-06 00:51:29 | Secondary-Enjoyment 0xbd7d…a2fb | No | BUY | 45 | 95¢ | $43 | 0xa09290… |
| 08-06 00:51:29 | Adorable-Size 0x5e80…bb7e | No | SELL | 110 | 95¢ | $104 | 0xa09290… |
| 08-06 00:51:29 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | BUY | 44 | 95¢ | $41 | 0xa09290… |
| 08-06 00:51:29 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xa09290… |
| 08-06 00:42:36 | Trustworthy-Liner 0xf968…a695 | No | SELL | 13 | 95¢ | $12 | 0x31fc4b… |
| 08-06 00:42:36 | Secondary-Enjoyment 0xbd7d…a2fb | No | BUY | 13 | 95¢ | $12 | 0x31fc4b… |
| 08-05 22:09:56 | Another-Allowance 0xdafd…5ffb | No | BUY | 1,325 | 95¢ | $1,255 | 0x885cff… |
| 08-05 22:09:56 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x885cff… |
| 08-05 22:09:56 | Third-Rip 0x6bc8…477c | No | SELL | 533 | 95¢ | $504 | 0x885cff… |
| 08-05 22:09:56 | (anonymous) 0x37bb…65b2 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x885cff… |
| 08-05 22:09:56 | (anonymous) 0x9b42…8ca7 | No | SELL | 449 | 95¢ | $425 | 0x885cff… |
| 08-05 22:09:56 | (anonymous) 0x1dd9…21cc | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x885cff… |
| 08-05 22:09:56 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | SELL | 211 | 95¢ | $200 | 0x885cff… |
| 08-05 21:27:45 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | SELL | 13 | 95¢ | $12 | 0xc793d4… |
| 08-05 21:27:45 | (anonymous) 0x5139…57ed | No | BUY | 13 | 95¢ | $12 | 0xc793d4… |
| 08-05 21:09:54 | Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | BUY | 54 | 95¢ | $51 | 0x3b13b0… |
| 08-05 21:09:54 | Gullible-Petitioner 0x9fb5…7682 | No | SELL | 54 | 95¢ | $51 | 0x3b13b0… |
| 08-05 21:03:05 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | SELL | 112 | 95¢ | $106 | 0x6bcfb4… |
| 08-05 21:03:05 | Subtle-Majorleague 0xae8d…6db9 | No | BUY | 112 | 95¢ | $106 | 0x6bcfb4… |
| 08-05 20:24:15 | Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | BUY | 7,386 | 95¢ | $6,987 | 0x62b779… |
| 08-05 20:24:15 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | SELL | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x62b779… |
| 08-05 20:24:15 | (anonymous) 0xce44…3002 | Yes | BUY | 117 | 5¢ | $6 | 0x62b779… |
| 08-05 20:24:15 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x62b779… |
| 08-05 20:24:15 | (anonymous) 0x3258…5650 | No | SELL | 81 | 95¢ | $77 | 0x62b779… |
| 08-05 20:24:15 | Superb-Island 0x7cf6…af1e | No | SELL | 5,000 | 95¢ | $4,730 | 0x62b779… |
| 08-05 20:24:15 | (anonymous) 0x6b8c…ead9 | No | SELL | 124 | 95¢ | $117 | 0x62b779… |
| 08-05 20:04:33 | (anonymous) 0x7476…b7f2 | No | SELL | 144 | 94¢ | $136 | 0x9126fa… |
| 08-05 20:04:33 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9126fa… |
| 08-05 20:04:33 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9126fa… |
| 08-05 20:04:33 | Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | BUY | 2,980 | 94¢ | $2,816 | 0x9126fa… |
| 08-05 20:04:33 | (anonymous) 0x8f64…9aa0 | No | SELL | 55 | 94¢ | $52 | 0x9126fa… |
| 08-05 20:04:33 | (anonymous) 0x13a5…f651 | No | SELL | 144 | 94¢ | $136 | 0x9126fa… |
| 08-05 20:04:33 | (anonymous) 0x26e3…5092 | No | SELL | 137 | 94¢ | $130 | 0x9126fa… |
| 08-05 20:04:33 | (anonymous) 0xfe08…15bf | No | SELL | 154 | 94¢ | $145 | 0x9126fa… |
| 08-05 20:04:33 | (anonymous) 0x4cd4…5b25 | No | SELL | 2,214 | 94¢ | $2,092 | 0x9126fa… |
| 08-05 20:04:33 | (anonymous) 0x8a54…ce40 | No | SELL | 123 | 94¢ | $116 | 0x9126fa… |
| 08-05 18:33:36 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x745233… |
| 08-05 18:33:36 | (anonymous) 0x4cd4…5b25 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x745233… |
| 08-05 18:02:21 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7313bc… |
| 08-05 18:02:21 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7313bc… |
| 08-05 17:03:05 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x6f8033… |
| 08-05 17:03:05 | (anonymous) 0x4cd4…5b25 | No | SELL | 0 | 94¢ | $0 | 0x6f8033… |
| 08-05 17:03:05 | Graceful-Street 0x7b2c…8062 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x6f8033… |
| 08-05 14:29:00 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x473b00… |
| 08-05 14:29:00 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x473b00… |
| 08-05 14:29:00 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | SELL | 211 | 94¢ | $199 | 0x473b00… |
| 08-05 14:29:00 | (anonymous) 0xce44…3002 | Yes | BUY | 74 | 6¢ | $4 | 0x473b00… |
| 08-05 14:29:00 | Trusty-Guidance 0x8055…44c4 | No | BUY | 4,000 | 94¢ | $3,779 | 0x473b00… |
| 08-05 14:29:00 | (anonymous) 0x4cd4…5b25 | No | SELL | 3,699 | 94¢ | $3,496 | 0x473b00… |
| 08-05 13:57:27 | Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | BUY | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0x4e2493… |
| 08-05 13:57:27 | (anonymous) 0xf254…ad68 | No | SELL | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0x4e2493… |
| 08-05 13:19:20 | Loose-Hybridization 0x85cf…3211 | No | SELL | 22 | 94¢ | $21 | 0xeb5a78… |
| 08-05 13:19:20 | Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | BUY | 22 | 94¢ | $21 | 0xeb5a78… |
| 08-05 13:17:23 | (anonymous) 0xce44…3002 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 6¢ | $4 | 0x04913e… |
| 08-05 13:17:23 | Specific-Caddy 0xf7eb…31c3 | No | BUY | 74 | 94¢ | $70 | 0x04913e… |
| 08-05 13:17:23 | Curly-Violin 0x8b06…86e6 | No | SELL | 9 | 94¢ | $8 | 0x04913e… |
| 08-05 13:17:23 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x04913e… |
| 08-05 13:00:02 | (anonymous) 0xe01f…4af7 | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0x01dca6… |
| 08-05 13:00:02 | Specific-Caddy 0xf7eb…31c3 | No | BUY | 106 | 94¢ | $100 | 0x01dca6… |
| 08-05 13:00:02 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $0 | 0x01dca6… |
| 08-05 13:00:02 | Curly-Violin 0x8b06…86e6 | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0x01dca6… |
| 08-05 13:00:02 | (anonymous) 0x76a1…6ee4 | No | SELL | 9 | 94¢ | $8 | 0x01dca6… |
| 08-05 08:47:47 | Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x02d347… |