Immaterial-Advantage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.11K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,676

lifetime

Volume

$195.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$117

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 08-11 12:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

40% 67% +$1,112

Other

33% 67% $-1

Crypto

27% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	35	$23.5K	16,554	12,554	+4,000	open	—	03-24 13:18
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$15.0K	11,857	5,928	+5,928	open	—	03-04 10:44
will the south australian labor party win the most seats in the next south australian parliamentary election	1	$14.0K	14,186	0	+14,186	open	—	03-17 08:18
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	2	$10.0K	10,648	0	+10,648	open	—	07-26 10:15
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	9	$9.3K	8,915	8,915	+0	open	—	03-20 10:14
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	39	$7.5K	9,842	4,806	+5,035	open	—	03-07 17:22
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	10	$6.9K	21,105	0	+21,105	open	—	02-27 14:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	4	$5.5K	6,941	0	+6,941	open	—	04-26 08:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	1	$5.0K	5,975	0	+5,975	open	—	04-06 15:50
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$4.9K	5,087	0	+5,087	open	—	03-20 16:53
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	8	$4.6K	3,512	3,512	+0	open	—	03-04 10:14
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	11	$4.4K	2,250	2,250	+0	open	—	02-14 21:33
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	3	$4.3K	4,000	2,500	+1,500	open	—	03-13 13:55
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	3	$4.0K	3,140	3,140	+0	open	—	03-06 16:16
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	3	$3.9K	1,980	1,980	-0	open	—	05-15 02:01
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	10	$3.2K	2,590	2,386	+204	open	—	02-16 07:24
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	6	$2.6K	3,816	0	+3,816	open	—	03-09 03:39
will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	55	$2.3K	2,999	438	+2,561	open	—	03-16 02:26
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	5	$2.1K	1,118	1,118	+0	open	—	02-20 21:31
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	18	$2.1K	2,608	769	+1,839	open	—	03-16 02:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	1	$2.0K	2,703	0	+2,703	open	—	04-06 15:49
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	1	$2.0K	3,018	0	+3,018	open	—	01-29 15:25
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	1	$2.0K	2,778	0	+2,778	open	—	04-10 13:36
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	3	$1.9K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	06-09 15:58
will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	3	$1.7K	1,705	1,282	+423	open	—	03-04 14:10
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	9	$1.7K	2,405	0	+2,405	open	—	08-11 17:28
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	1	$1.6K	2,581	0	+2,581	open	—	02-02 14:42
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	1	$1.5K	2,308	0	+2,308	open	—	01-15 16:58
will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	15	$1.5K	5,824	824	+5,000	open	—	08-02 07:41
Fed rate hike in 2026?	5	$1.4K	1,579	1,359	+219	open	—	08-11 17:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 17:34:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	984	41¢	$404	0x060158…
08-11 17:28:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xe3c0ea…
08-11 17:28:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x26c1fe…
08-11 17:27:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xa46bd9…
08-11 17:13:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	129	94¢	$121	0xfedd8b…
08-11 12:19:33	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0xee8c02…
08-11 11:24:03	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0xedf9fb…
08-11 09:12:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	356	93¢	$331	0x30b16b…
08-10 18:11:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	242	94¢	$228	0x7143a4…
08-10 18:04:46	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xd018bd…
08-10 18:01:42	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	95	2¢	$2	0x72a861…
08-10 17:59:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	566	93¢	$527	0xf041e9…
08-10 15:59:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	70	95¢	$67	0xaad951…
08-10 15:59:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	211	5¢	$11	0xaad951…
08-10 14:21:33	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	185	72¢	$133	0x7ee4bd…
08-10 14:21:09	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	176	72¢	$127	0x534297…
08-10 14:20:58	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	176	72¢	$127	0xa1121e…
08-10 14:20:49	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	28¢	$32	0x714298…
08-10 14:20:49	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	4	72¢	$3	0x714298…
08-10 14:20:40	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	469	28¢	$131	0x6fad4f…
08-10 14:20:27	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	520	28¢	$146	0x001f4c…
08-10 08:23:52	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0x92e203…
08-10 08:17:43	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x88c08b…
08-10 06:47:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xa5d9e9…
08-10 06:39:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x4e3430…
08-10 06:39:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x963a08…
08-10 06:39:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	3	95¢	$2	0x282faa…
08-10 06:39:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xee506b…
08-10 06:39:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x96c97b…
08-10 06:39:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x94552b…
08-10 06:18:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	33	95¢	$31	0x9e040f…
08-10 00:49:36	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x8ed5d1…
08-09 23:31:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x9693f2…
08-09 23:20:45	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xaa41d0…
08-09 23:20:45	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	11	98¢	$10	0x743a13…
08-09 23:20:45	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x3fbb76…
08-09 23:20:45	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x085dad…
08-09 23:20:43	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x83f56c…
08-09 23:20:43	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	64	98¢	$63	0x6ee905…
08-09 21:09:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	39	92¢	$36	0x45c9ed…
08-09 21:08:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	227	91¢	$206	0x426d18…
08-09 20:18:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	38	15¢	$6	0x45f6fe…
08-09 20:18:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	584	85¢	$497	0x45f6fe…
08-09 17:21:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x441e88…
08-09 17:13:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x1fd44f…
08-06 09:45:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	7	80¢	$5	0xdaf47d…
08-06 08:38:29	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	16¢	$10	0x35216d…
08-06 08:36:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x52b34f…
08-06 08:26:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0x7bcda5…
08-06 07:53:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x9888ae…
08-06 06:19:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0x026def…
08-06 03:58:59	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x1cf6b6…
08-06 02:10:09	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	49	25¢	$12	0x41aa64…
08-04 21:23:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	62¢	$139	0x988413…
08-04 18:49:35	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	24¢	$11	0xd4f0ca…
08-04 10:07:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	224	47¢	$105	0xe56254…
08-04 09:07:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	750	8¢	$60	0xd447b6…
08-03 17:10:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	9	62¢	$5	0xdb6b09…
08-02 20:25:20	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	83	63¢	$52	0xb08ec2…
08-02 18:36:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x41909b…
08-02 18:35:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x9a77ba…
08-02 17:49:08	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	26	70¢	$18	0xe5af94…
08-02 10:28:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1,119	54¢	$604	0xc1fe45…
08-02 08:16:27	Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x66451f…
08-02 07:50:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xcfa058…
08-02 07:41:33	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	4,735	0¢	$5	0xe6c3c2…
08-02 07:41:05	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x812bc8…
08-02 07:24:54	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	255	0¢	$0	0x8aa63f…
08-02 07:08:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	31	71¢	$22	0x26519d…
08-02 06:07:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x7fa6ee…
08-02 05:45:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	38	32¢	$12	0x7c4469…
08-02 05:35:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	75	98¢	$74	0xdfdb74…
08-02 05:31:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xfafea7…
08-01 23:07:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	75	74¢	$55	0xa341c1…
08-01 22:32:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	75	24¢	$18	0x01a373…
08-01 22:31:36	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	SELL	824	100¢	$823	0x050c94…
08-01 21:58:44	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x1ed20a…
08-01 17:59:35	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	19	71¢	$13	0x3d9c22…
08-01 17:09:18	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	614	78¢	$482	0x4e1fa2…
08-01 17:06:35	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x35d199…
08-01 17:06:33	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xa94a0f…
08-01 17:06:32	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xd1293a…
08-01 17:06:29	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x29d369…
08-01 17:05:39	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	12	79¢	$9	0x8a8508…
08-01 17:05:36	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	47	79¢	$37	0x3d2fe0…
08-01 17:05:35	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x3ce870…
08-01 17:05:35	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x177516…
08-01 17:05:33	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	56	79¢	$44	0x7b3efe…
08-01 17:03:30	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	58	78¢	$45	0xb22f0e…
08-01 17:03:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	38	24¢	$9	0x4ae5e5…
08-01 17:02:32	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	80	65¢	$52	0xa21c09…
08-01 08:53:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	660	8¢	$54	0x2fd94b…
08-01 08:03:48	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	74	74¢	$55	0xbce767…
08-01 06:04:39	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	69	74¢	$51	0xb1e78a…
08-01 06:03:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0xce276f…
08-01 01:16:33	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x30b16e…
08-01 00:41:09	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	18	90¢	$17	0x6d63a8…
07-31 22:45:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	468	76¢	$355	0x137c4d…
07-31 17:10:44	will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232	No	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x855032…
07-31 10:48:20	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	51	2¢	$1	0xb75b09…