Realized P&L
+$3.14K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.58K
Hit rate
94.2%
Resolved
4
Trades
13,492
lifetime
Volume
$12.7M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$939
Open exposure
$1.28M
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-29
last 07-20 23:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Crypto
33%
—
—
Politics
31%
0%
$-600
Other
29%
100%
+$3,738
Sports
8%
—
—
Tech
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
51 active days in 12wk
• peak 626 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +360,000 | $288,107 | 74¢ | $268.2K | $-19,907 | 07-20 11:34 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +200,324 | $179,685 | 90¢ | $179.3K | $-395 | 07-19 14:30 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +187,099 | $161,239 | 92¢ | $171.2K | +$9,957 | 07-02 00:42 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | +148,519 | $146,030 | 99¢ | $146.5K | +$484 | 07-19 08:21 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +105,441 | $99,791 | 96¢ | $100.9K | +$1,063 | 07-15 11:53 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | +74,042 | $70,702 | 98¢ | $72.3K | +$1,600 | 07-11 23:57 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +58,025 | $53,675 | 94¢ | $54.8K | +$1,130 | 07-09 21:06 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +47,697 | $39,819 | 90¢ | $42.7K | +$2,869 | 07-17 07:26 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +40,896 | $37,262 | 92¢ | $37.8K | +$567 | 07-07 16:14 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | +35,668 | $34,179 | 94¢ | $33.3K | $-829 | 07-20 23:50 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +23,751 | $20,966 | 91¢ | $21.6K | +$648 | 07-15 06:35 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | +20,000 | $18,800 | 95¢ | $19.0K | +$200 | 07-14 21:24 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +22,273 | $17,250 | 84¢ | $18.6K | +$1,348 | 07-17 13:10 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +19,406 | $17,217 | 94¢ | $18.1K | +$928 | 06-29 07:03 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | -15,976 | $-15,503 | 98¢ | $-15632 | $-129 | 06-28 05:31 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +18,853 | $14,866 | 82¢ | $15.6K | +$687 | 07-13 17:20 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +11,503 | $10,258 | 92¢ | $10.5K | +$267 | 07-16 09:31 | |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | +10,582 | $9,407 | 95¢ | $10.1K | +$672 | 06-05 13:20 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +10,020 | $8,818 | 88¢ | $8.8K | $-50 | 07-15 06:18 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +8,989 | $8,386 | 95¢ | $8.5K | +$148 | 06-16 09:59 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +7,618 | $5,141 | 78¢ | $6.0K | +$839 | 07-15 12:53 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +5,015 | $4,563 | 96¢ | $4.8K | +$226 | 07-01 11:45 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +5,000 | $4,300 | 88¢ | $4.4K | +$75 | 07-16 00:40 | |
| Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | No | +2,872 | $2,708 | 98¢ | $2.8K | +$114 | 07-19 21:42 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,859 | $2,631 | 92¢ | $2.6K | +$14 | 07-16 07:22 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -2,136 | $-2,068 | 97¢ | $-2082 | $-14 | 06-21 14:19 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +697 | $616 | 95¢ | $662 | +$47 | 06-24 13:41 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +590 | $561 | 95¢ | $564 | +$3 | 06-24 10:21 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | +402 | $350 | 90¢ | $360 | +$10 | 07-17 12:54 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +117 | $110 | 96¢ | $112 | +$1 | 06-24 10:14 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | 1 | $799.2K | 800,000 | 0 | +800,000 | open | — | 07-09 08:23 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 143 | $393.7K | 453,747 | 43,747 | +410,000 | open | — | 07-20 11:34 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 206 | $369.2K | 385,095 | 14,862 | +370,233 | open | — | 04-08 09:46 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 61 | $352.9K | 364,339 | 37,515 | +326,824 | open | — | 03-02 19:51 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 177 | $291.4K | 262,407 | 101,650 | +160,757 | open | — | 03-31 17:07 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 225 | $259.2K | 264,061 | 0 | +264,061 | open | — | 03-30 10:47 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 49 | $241.7K | 246,218 | 0 | +246,218 | open | — | 03-04 16:22 |
| bitcoin above 62k on july 1 2026 | 50 | $235.5K | 233,716 | 2,058 | +231,658 | open | — | 07-01 14:34 |
| will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026 | 557 | $231.6K | 243,501 | 30,810 | +212,691 | open | — | 03-30 22:53 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 103 | $195.2K | 201,538 | 104,347 | +97,192 | open | — | 03-01 19:59 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 61 | $184.8K | 205,754 | 8,254 | +197,500 | open | — | 07-02 00:42 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 158 | $184.1K | 202,769 | 2,444 | +200,324 | open | — | 07-19 14:30 |
| will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298 | 171 | $172.1K | 122,733 | 55,892 | +66,841 | open | — | 02-28 08:21 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 56 | $151.1K | 153,620 | 0 | +153,620 | open | — | 07-19 08:21 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 144 | $148.5K | 154,377 | 0 | +154,377 | open | — | 03-02 05:49 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | 94 | $143.0K | 162,722 | 7,353 | +155,368 | open | — | 07-20 15:49 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 81 | $137.9K | 143,180 | 57,205 | +85,976 | open | — | 02-28 07:22 |
| will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936 | 214 | $132.2K | 79,263 | 65,951 | +13,313 | open | — | 02-28 21:23 |
| EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | 11 | $131.0K | 131,233 | 0 | +131,233 | open | — | 04-01 09:02 |
| bitcoin above 60k on july 17 2026 | 68 | $127.2K | 127,624 | 0 | +127,624 | open | — | 07-17 13:46 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | 63 | $126.2K | 126,951 | 2,500 | +124,451 | open | — | 04-27 15:14 |
| will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935 | 115 | $117.0K | 72,258 | 53,442 | +18,816 | open | — | 02-28 04:52 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 65 | $110.0K | 80,732 | 38,808 | +41,924 | open | — | 01-31 20:40 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 77 | $109.7K | 112,896 | 0 | +112,896 | open | — | 05-11 09:20 |
| trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374 | 67 | $106.6K | 107,282 | 0 | +107,282 | open | — | 07-19 13:07 |
| fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance | 386 | $105.2K | 210,249 | 249 | +210,000 | open | — | 07-14 17:23 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 1,091 | $104.5K | 110,441 | 0 | +110,441 | open | — | 07-15 11:53 |
| bitcoin above 66k on july 17 2026 | 44 | $100.6K | 100,745 | 0 | +100,745 | open | — | 07-17 15:52 |
| bitcoin above 64k on july 15 2026 | 5 | $99.9K | 100,000 | 0 | +100,000 | open | — | 07-15 15:16 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15 | 28 | $99.5K | 100,000 | 0 | +100,000 | open | — | 07-12 14:01 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||