Realized P&L
-$284.1K
Unrealized P&L
+$136.2K
Hit rate
90.7%
Resolved
813
Trades
35,981
lifetime
Volume
$39.2M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.09K
Open exposure
$3.07M
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-29
last 10-27 05:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 164 days
Categories
Other
41%
83%
-$62,928
Crypto
22%
94%
+$20,133
Politics
19%
81%
-$198,732
Sports
18%
74%
+$45,622
Tech
0%
50%
-$88,152
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
69 active days in 12wk
• peak 490 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +709,932 | $652,136 | 94¢ | $663.8K | +$11,651 | 10-26 12:23 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +210,000 | $199,991 | 98¢ | $205.9K | +$5,914 | 10-25 18:42 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +209,045 | $173,265 | 98¢ | $204.6K | +$31,286 | 10-26 14:20 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +207,705 | $192,123 | 97¢ | $202.2K | +$10,078 | 10-24 19:20 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +204,898 | $196,279 | 96¢ | $197.2K | +$935 | 10-26 10:25 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +157,137 | $133,716 | 92¢ | $143.8K | +$10,064 | 10-22 09:19 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +162,500 | $118,179 | 82¢ | $132.4K | +$14,259 | 08-27 07:06 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +127,519 | $119,426 | 97¢ | $123.5K | +$4,076 | 10-24 09:39 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | +120,625 | $111,060 | 92¢ | $110.4K | -$688 | 10-20 19:22 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +104,547 | $91,061 | 97¢ | $101.3K | +$10,192 | 10-22 13:39 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +101,150 | $91,993 | 94¢ | $95.6K | +$3,594 | 10-19 10:25 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | +95,000 | $83,413 | 92¢ | $86.9K | +$3,512 | 10-10 23:30 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +98,762 | $77,713 | 82¢ | $81.5K | +$3,766 | 10-22 04:58 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +86,205 | $74,579 | 94¢ | $81.1K | +$6,497 | 10-05 04:50 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October? | No | +76,661 | $75,239 | 100¢ | $76.3K | +$1,078 | 10-24 05:27 | |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | +62,894 | $52,895 | 96¢ | $60.4K | +$7,515 | 10-23 20:51 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? | No | +54,993 | $50,615 | 96¢ | $52.8K | +$2,178 | 10-26 04:15 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | +52,921 | $48,976 | 100¢ | $52.7K | +$3,759 | 10-27 05:34 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | No | +48,874 | $46,704 | 100¢ | $48.7K | +$1,999 | 10-26 12:28 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? | No | +38,448 | $36,542 | 100¢ | $38.3K | +$1,733 | 10-24 03:04 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +35,943 | $34,652 | 97¢ | $35.0K | +$338 | 10-03 06:22 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +34,678 | $33,917 | 99¢ | $34.2K | +$328 | 10-27 00:29 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October? | No | +32,222 | $31,157 | 99¢ | $31.9K | +$759 | 10-22 03:42 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? | No | +31,404 | $29,687 | 100¢ | $31.3K | +$1,607 | 10-27 06:24 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +33,697 | $30,833 | 92¢ | $31.2K | +$337 | 10-04 17:35 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +31,683 | $30,216 | 96¢ | $30.6K | +$342 | 10-08 05:05 | |
| will bitcoin reach 95000 by december 31 2026 from june 8 | No | +39,010 | $33,435 | 78¢ | $30.2K | -$3,202 | 10-07 15:06 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +30,278 | $27,946 | 98¢ | $29.7K | +$1,802 | 10-23 21:29 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | +28,000 | $26,964 | 96¢ | $26.9K | -$56 | 09-11 13:19 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October? | No | +26,000 | $24,900 | 98¢ | $25.5K | +$580 | 10-26 00:07 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 161 | $1.52M | 1,209,537 | 321,023 | +888,514 | No | +$4,279 | 07-29 17:16 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 506 | $1.31M | 1,040,208 | 448,960 | +591,248 | No | +$18,251 | 07-11 21:50 |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 36 | $897.4K | 900,000 | 0 | +900,000 | No | +$2,550 | 07-07 16:42 |
| will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | 1 | $799.2K | 800,000 | 0 | +800,000 | Yes | +$800 | 07-09 08:23 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 447 | $722.7K | 747,935 | 38,003 | +709,932 | open | — | 10-26 12:23 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 237 | $619.3K | 464,385 | 301,885 | +162,500 | open | — | 08-27 07:06 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148 | 336 | $616.1K | 524,230 | 99,230 | +425,000 | No | +$6,746 | 08-11 11:35 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 537 | $601.7K | 491,399 | 116,399 | +375,000 | No | +$5,120 | 09-08 08:06 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 425 | $522.9K | 352,664 | 298,664 | +54,000 | Yes | +$1,397 | 07-22 12:42 |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1 | $519.5K | 520,000 | 0 | +520,000 | No | +$520 | 07-02 19:50 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 109 | $485.8K | 263,984 | 223,984 | +40,000 | No | +$275 | 07-29 14:36 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 201 | $463.9K | 358,392 | 149,346 | +209,045 | open | — | 10-26 14:20 |
| Trump out as President by August 31? | 314 | $444.0K | 375,562 | 71,725 | +303,837 | No | +$2,368 | 08-26 16:01 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 247 | $421.6K | 290,229 | 213,887 | +76,342 | No | -$62,977 | 10-24 23:41 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? | 1,021 | $411.7K | 413,569 | 0 | +413,569 | Yes | +$1,887 | 07-03 05:20 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 34 | $395.2K | 324,119 | 84,119 | +240,000 | No | +$8,317 | 07-07 00:09 |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 2 | $381.6K | 385,000 | 0 | +385,000 | No | +$3,410 | 07-01 14:12 |
| Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 36 | $374.6K | 375,000 | 0 | +375,000 | No | +$375 | 07-04 00:18 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 206 | $369.2K | 385,095 | 14,862 | +370,233 | No | +$30,252 | 04-08 09:46 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 61 | $352.9K | 364,339 | 37,515 | +326,824 | Yes | -$23,360 | 03-02 19:51 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | 117 | $297.8K | 177,815 | 124,893 | +52,921 | open | — | 10-27 05:34 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 177 | $291.4K | 262,407 | 101,650 | +160,757 | No | -$9,727 | 03-31 17:07 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 16 | $287.7K | 289,129 | 0 | +289,129 | No | +$1,436 | 10-04 03:39 |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? | 49 | $283.7K | 284,230 | 0 | +284,230 | Yes | +$530 | 05-04 16:02 |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 89 | $271.4K | 275,000 | 0 | +275,000 | No | +$3,575 | 06-07 02:07 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 225 | $259.2K | 264,061 | 0 | +264,061 | No | +$4,901 | 03-30 10:47 |
| Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-03? | 3 | $249.8K | 250,000 | 0 | +250,000 | No | +$250 | 05-03 20:36 |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 13 | $249.2K | 250,000 | 0 | +250,000 | No | +$750 | 06-06 21:11 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 504 | $247.3K | 641,377 | 398,837 | +242,540 | Yes | -$15,648 | 10-15 11:48 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 49 | $241.7K | 246,218 | 0 | +246,218 | Yes | +$4,473 | 03-04 16:22 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||