Serene-Decision — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.14K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.2%

Resolved

Trades

16,754

lifetime

Volume

$16.7M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$995

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 08-10 06:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

38% — —

Politics

28% 0% $-600

Other

28% 100% +$3,738

Sports

6% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 626 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	1	$799.2K	800,000	0	+800,000	open	—	07-09 08:23
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	357	$589.8K	616,437	28,003	+588,435	open	—	08-10 06:40
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	218	$517.2K	524,230	0	+524,230	open	—	08-10 09:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	208	$458.5K	464,385	114,385	+350,000	open	—	08-04 22:29
trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	307	$425.7K	367,562	61,306	+306,256	open	—	08-10 11:17
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	206	$369.2K	385,095	14,862	+370,233	open	—	04-08 09:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	61	$352.9K	364,339	37,515	+326,824	open	—	03-02 19:51
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	177	$291.4K	262,407	101,650	+160,757	open	—	03-31 17:07
netanyahu out by march 31 854	225	$259.2K	264,061	0	+264,061	open	—	03-30 10:47
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	49	$241.7K	246,218	0	+246,218	open	—	03-04 16:22
bitcoin above 62k on july 1 2026	50	$235.5K	233,716	2,058	+231,658	open	—	07-01 14:34
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	557	$231.6K	243,501	30,810	+212,691	open	—	03-30 22:53
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	103	$195.2K	201,538	104,347	+97,192	open	—	03-01 19:59
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	61	$184.8K	205,754	8,254	+197,500	open	—	07-02 00:42
will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	72	$176.2K	178,324	0	+178,324	open	—	07-31 14:05
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	171	$172.1K	122,733	55,892	+66,841	open	—	02-28 08:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	121	$168.4K	170,946	0	+170,946	open	—	07-31 05:06
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1,376	$153.8K	161,772	0	+161,772	open	—	08-08 07:05
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	144	$148.5K	154,377	0	+154,377	open	—	03-02 05:49
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	68	$143.2K	144,011	5,486	+138,525	open	—	07-30 23:10
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	94	$143.0K	162,722	7,353	+155,368	open	—	07-20 15:49
bitcoin above 66k on july 28 2026	9	$141.6K	141,912	0	+141,912	open	—	07-28 13:43
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	81	$137.9K	143,180	57,205	+85,976	open	—	02-28 07:22
bitcoin above 66k on july 27 2026	14	$133.7K	134,045	0	+134,045	open	—	07-27 15:14
will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	214	$132.2K	79,263	65,951	+13,313	open	—	02-28 21:23
will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	29	$131.1K	126,886	5,832	+121,055	open	—	07-26 19:15
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	11	$131.0K	131,233	0	+131,233	open	—	04-01 09:02
bitcoin above 62k on july 27 2026	39	$129.5K	129,659	0	+129,659	open	—	07-27 15:11
bitcoin above 60k on july 17 2026	68	$127.2K	127,624	0	+127,624	open	—	07-17 13:46
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	63	$126.2K	126,951	2,500	+124,451	open	—	04-27 15:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 12:52:58	Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x1bbe8a…
08-10 12:21:18	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xef1d34…
08-10 11:55:42	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xe0b674…
08-10 11:54:36	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xfc0eaa…
08-10 11:52:16	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x724543…
08-10 11:23:04	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xb0cfc4…
08-10 11:17:04	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	249	99¢	$248	0x819bf9…
08-10 11:16:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x0580f4…
08-10 11:16:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x7c437f…
08-10 11:15:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0xfb4278…
08-10 11:06:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0x7bb538…
08-10 11:04:51	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x05693d…
08-10 11:02:24	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x00014b…
08-10 11:02:00	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x596ec4…
08-10 10:59:27	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	439	99¢	$436	0x08a93d…
08-10 10:50:52	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	276	99¢	$275	0x6c45a4…
08-10 10:47:57	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	128	94¢	$121	0x8341b5…
08-10 10:45:24	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb7623b…
08-10 10:25:09	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x77bb38…
08-10 10:04:00	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	382	99¢	$380	0xcd6e24…
08-10 09:58:33	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	134	99¢	$133	0x259b75…
08-10 09:57:42	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x73af2f…
08-10 09:53:58	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	403	99¢	$400	0xe434a6…
08-10 09:48:34	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe9d2db…
08-10 09:40:31	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xcf3525…
08-10 09:34:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,952	0xd4f3f2…
08-10 09:28:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	14,246	100¢	$14,189	0xe01e5c…
08-10 09:26:51	Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xc6675d…
08-10 09:24:25	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,958	0xd429cd…
08-10 09:19:57	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3c15b5…
08-10 09:16:52	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x0c75a6…
08-10 09:14:10	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	480	99¢	$477	0x9ff851…
08-10 09:13:28	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0xc37cc3…
08-10 09:13:10	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	271	93¢	$252	0xf13a42…
08-10 09:02:54	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	304	93¢	$283	0x22a8fb…
08-10 09:02:46	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x5265ea…
08-10 09:02:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x4e4f09…
08-10 08:59:21	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x856cd6…
08-10 08:56:10	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	133	99¢	$132	0xbcfe2b…
08-10 08:52:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1c2dab…
08-10 08:46:52	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xd31149…
08-10 08:46:21	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xd9c23c…
08-10 08:45:58	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x5173d0…
08-10 08:45:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0xa36dbe…
08-10 08:43:13	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	116	99¢	$115	0xaf5f17…
08-10 08:38:24	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	315	99¢	$313	0x158147…
08-10 08:38:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,490	0xe4f622…
08-10 08:38:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	2,488	100¢	$2,478	0x861ee1…
08-10 08:37:21	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x98e9f4…
08-10 08:36:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,960	0xbef7dd…
08-10 08:31:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	76¢	$18	0x9fa2bb…
08-10 08:29:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0x92b72c…
08-10 08:26:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$996	0x2699af…
08-10 08:19:19	Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0x308720…
08-10 08:19:16	Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0xd51bcc…
08-10 08:12:27	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0x4ba8bd…
08-10 08:02:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa0ecda…
08-10 08:02:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xc92514…
08-10 08:02:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	195	100¢	$194	0xeb30be…
08-10 08:02:01	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	441	99¢	$438	0x59496f…
08-10 08:01:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xd9f1df…
08-10 07:55:25	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	118	99¢	$117	0xa36d37…
08-10 07:54:09	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x298ae0…
08-10 07:52:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x75e37f…
08-10 07:50:36	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	298	93¢	$277	0x7f9adb…
08-10 07:48:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	2,335	100¢	$2,326	0x2bfdb6…
08-10 07:46:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	563	76¢	$428	0xa7a41c…
08-10 07:45:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	818	100¢	$814	0x6332e7…
08-10 07:45:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,976	0x50ab50…
08-10 07:44:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	382	99¢	$377	0xa1339d…
08-10 07:43:13	will ethereum reach 2500 in august 2026	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x757c0e…
08-10 07:42:54	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	119	99¢	$118	0xa534e7…
08-10 07:36:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	774	99¢	$766	0xe45a05…
08-10 07:35:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x19627e…
08-10 07:34:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	85,826	100¢	$85,483	0x29dcf1…
08-10 07:34:27	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	481	99¢	$479	0xfd52cb…
08-10 07:31:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	373	98¢	$365	0x9a98c1…
08-10 07:31:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	2,127	98¢	$2,080	0x031eb5…
08-10 07:31:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	9,422	98¢	$9,231	0xfaa6f1…
08-10 07:30:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	12,580	96¢	$12,090	0x1ce852…
08-10 07:27:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	667	100¢	$665	0x96ecb6…
08-10 07:22:42	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	137	99¢	$136	0x9f3ec9…
08-10 07:22:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	1,500	99¢	$1,485	0x5d4c51…
08-10 07:20:12	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	128	99¢	$127	0x819eaa…
08-10 07:17:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x6d3ba8…
08-10 07:11:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x275c37…
08-10 07:07:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	425	95¢	$405	0x8cb6ca…
08-10 07:01:43	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x74bfbd…
08-10 07:01:28	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0xe5dc70…
08-10 07:01:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xbac573…
08-10 07:01:00	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0xaf101c…
08-10 06:59:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe9265f…
08-10 06:59:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb0572d…
08-10 06:59:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xebf95d…
08-10 06:58:25	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc5576a…
08-10 06:58:19	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa4d28e…
08-10 06:57:39	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x51225d…
08-10 06:57:24	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xdd5606…
08-10 06:57:10	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x35df82…
08-10 06:56:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	2,500	96¢	$2,398	0x3d3c14…