Realized P&L
+$30
Unrealized P&L
+$132
Hit rate
94.8%
Resolved
652
Trades
20,747
lifetime
Volume
$275.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$13
Open exposure
$19.9K
24 positions
First seen
2026-04-09
last 06-30 11:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 12 days
Categories
Crypto
88% 93% +$30
Other
7% 100% +$0
Politics
4%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 914 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +6,000 $5,962 100¢ $6.0K +$32 06-25 22:38
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No +2,900 $2,884 100¢ $2.9K +$13 06-25 07:39
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +2,514 $2,293 93¢ $2.3K +$34 06-29 22:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No +1,600 $1,589 100¢ $1.6K +$9 06-25 16:12
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes +1,100 $1,094 100¢ $1.1K +$5 06-28 07:00
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No +1,100 $1,086 100¢ $1.1K +$13 06-21 12:14
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +519 $515 100¢ $517 +$2 06-28 17:23
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +500 $498 100¢ $499 +$1 06-26 17:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +480 $468 99¢ $477 +$9 06-29 04:48
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No +428 $426 100¢ $427 +$1 06-27 07:33
Netanyahu out by June 30? No +400 $398 100¢ $399 +$1 06-24 09:11
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No +400 $383 96¢ $385 +$2 06-13 06:51
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +327 $325 100¢ $326 +$1 06-28 09:34
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No -300 $-292 98¢ $-293 $-1 06-22 14:35
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No -335 $-279 86¢ $-287 $-8 06-25 13:59
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? No +280 $278 100¢ $279 +$2 06-27 14:12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +200 $198 100¢ $199 +$1 06-29 13:55
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No +200 $199 100¢ $199 +$0 06-25 12:34
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +200 $170 86¢ $173 +$3 06-21 16:42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No +119 $113 100¢ $119 +$6 06-27 20:54
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No +100 $100 100¢ $100 +$0 06-22 21:54
Human moon landing in 2026? No +100 $97 97¢ $97 +$1 06-11 12:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No +100 $94 96¢ $96 +$2 06-05 01:19
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No +50 $49 100¢ $50 +$1 06-27 13:52