Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
open
Total volume
$462,914
$511 in 24h
Trades
11,976
Unique wallets
3,471
Liquidity
$73,633
Latest YES mid
1¢
Latest NO mid
99¢
End date
2026-09-30
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-03 14:29
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-2.5¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $4.0K
vs crowd: 4% YES on $273.9K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 38 | $400 | $74.7K | $74.3K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 40 | $521 | $21.1K | $20.6K |
| 🐟 Fish | 325 | $3.1K | $69.0K | $65.9K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 3,068 | $5.8K | $99.2K | $93.4K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 7 | $43 | $4.0K | $3.9K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 29 | $391 | $34.3K | $33.9K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 18 | $64 | $25.1K | $25.0K |
| Median | 545 | $825 | $26.8K | $26.0K |
| Below median | 353 | $848 | $17.0K | $16.1K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 15 | $184 | $1.1K | $911 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 18 | $127 | $3.9K | $3.8K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 13 | $159 | $12.3K | $12.1K |
| unranked | 2,473 | $7.2K | $139.6K | $132.4K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate-Execution 0x16e2…5f01 | Yes | +43,591 | $2,172 | $2,172 | 17 | 06-22 14:35 |
| Worn-Tanker 0xc97b…47e5 | No | +22,140 | $21,552 | $21,552 | 45 | 07-01 14:44 |
| Hidden-Contrast 0x4ee4…18ef | No | +20,459 | $20,000 | $20,000 | 1 | 07-01 14:43 |
| Novel-Bitten 0x91ca…0957 | Yes | +17,486 | $354 | $782 | 37 | 07-02 17:15 |
| Devoted-Offramp 0x527b…eb08 | Yes | +17,408 | $900 | $1,700 | 6 | 05-31 20:20 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +10,124 | $235 | $235 | 159 | 07-03 10:27 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +7,247 | $7,061 | $7,061 | 132 | 07-03 10:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x693e…48ad | No | +6,774 | $6,693 | $6,693 | 1 | 07-03 08:59 |
| Limp-Tablecloth 0x94bd…6184 | No | +6,447 | $6,251 | $6,251 | 42 | 06-26 04:45 |
| Cute-Miss 0x4f12…8211 | No | +5,000 | $4,845 | $4,845 | 1 | 06-23 10:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xeb4e…e956 | Yes | +3,245 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-07 12:53 |
| Wavy-Bog 0x96a7…9e8d | Yes | +3,000 | $97 | $199 | 11 | 06-27 04:24 |
| Wild-Hospital 0x2d88…d5e8 | No | +2,944 | $2,881 | $2,881 | 42 | 07-02 01:35 |
| Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | +2,700 | $47 | $179 | 20 | 07-03 08:59 |
| Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | +2,700 | $18 | $80 | 12 | 07-03 08:59 |
| Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | +2,200 | $-112 | $268 | 10 | 07-03 08:59 |
| Easy-Variation 0x43b4…ec9c | No | +2,169 | $2,117 | $2,117 | 1 | 06-29 03:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x0a30…b1be | No | +2,108 | $2,060 | $2,060 | 1 | 07-01 11:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xaa2a…e051 | Yes | +2,108 | $60 | $60 | 1 | 06-06 18:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x58ab…7a72 | No | +2,059 | $2,000 | $2,000 | 1 | 06-15 21:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x720d…ea38 | No | +1,658 | $1,608 | $1,608 | 2 | 06-23 09:59 |
| Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | No | +1,318 | $974 | $11,986 | 3 | 06-23 10:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x703b…6627 | Yes | +1,079 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 06-06 16:19 |
| 0x62551fced91fb27330232c2b4b36532eb32fdebc 0x5f37…204c | No | +1,000 | $978 | $978 | 1 | 07-01 08:02 |
| Rich-Try 0xd5e3…e379 | No | +1,000 | $972 | $972 | 1 | 06-15 05:55 |
| Cheery-Preparation 0xcaab…24dd | No | +1,000 | $930 | $930 | 1 | 06-22 14:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xd499…df5b | No | +924 | $900 | $900 | 1 | 06-27 02:36 |
| Cool-Counselling 0x94c1…e5ad | Yes | +833 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-30 15:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x8ca6…a980 | Yes | +786 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 06-17 13:00 |
| Blue-Tab 0xfe2d…a830 | No | +676 | $657 | $1,543 | 2 | 06-15 02:25 |
| Elaborate-Recapitulation 0x6a3d…e38c | Yes | +645 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 06-26 02:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | +581 | $550 | $550 | 5 | 06-22 14:35 |
| Double-Rutabaga 0xea96…2fb8 | No | +507 | $498 | $498 | 5 | 07-02 20:10 |
| Crushing-Republic 0x52a6…8ece | No | +500 | $482 | $4,381 | 35 | 07-01 11:19 |
| Sane-Cytokine 0xa9d0…60ed | Yes | +500 | $-5 | $25 | 3 | 07-03 08:59 |
| Vapid-Formula 0x93f2…a879 | No | +500 | $485 | $485 | 2 | 06-07 14:41 |
| Teeming-Min 0x198a…3ca3 | No | +500 | $486 | $486 | 1 | 06-16 07:14 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | +495 | $473 | $512 | 3 | 06-16 17:08 |
| Threadbare-Signal 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | +466 | $13 | $13 | 10 | 06-12 19:38 |
| Worthwhile-Sock 0x682c…17ae | Yes | +444 | $20 | $436 | 140 | 07-01 11:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x2d48…678c | Yes | +400 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-18 12:18 |
| Celebrated-Blowhole 0x02f0…1a03 | Yes | +400 | $12 | $12 | 4 | 06-23 09:57 |
| Late-Inheritance 0x84c7…cabe | Yes | +368 | $23 | $101 | 7 | 06-21 21:27 |
| Faithful-Razor 0x6731…4e4e | Yes | +346 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-07 15:07 |
| Shameless-Workout-Orchard 0x4d86…1cb2 | Yes | +328 | $3 | $4 | 2 | 07-03 10:35 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +320 | $308 | $3,367 | 35 | 06-07 21:02 |
| Canine-Practice 0x30f9…fbfc | Yes | +320 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 05-31 20:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x41cd…75c4 | Yes | +300 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 06-12 01:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x7b92…eecc | No | +300 | $295 | $295 | 1 | 07-02 23:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xc017…3b30 | No | +300 | $295 | $295 | 1 | 07-02 22:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b4a…41cb | No | +300 | $295 | $295 | 1 | 07-01 17:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x902f…1a6d | No | +300 | $293 | $293 | 5 | 07-01 11:19 |
| Grateful-Lane 0x5b66…c465 | No | +300 | $291 | $291 | 1 | 06-23 08:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xfc75…dda0 | No | +300 | $285 | $285 | 1 | 06-01 12:38 |
| Nonstop-Antique 0xb2c4…43e8 | Yes | +258 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-07 17:32 |
| Sweet-Wasp 0x13b6…c633 | Yes | +250 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 07-03 08:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x4cad…3fab | Yes | +228 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-06 21:29 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 14:29:02 | Mediocre-Paradise 0xc30c…6509 | No | BUY | 106 | 99¢ | $105 | 0x17fc6f… |
| 07-03 14:29:02 | Fickle-Halt-Window 0x279c…2b82 | Yes | BUY | 106 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x17fc6f… |
| 07-03 14:18:16 | (anonymous) 0x80e3…e537 | No | SELL | 4 | 99¢ | $4 | 0x2fd714… |
| 07-03 14:18:16 | Super-Stab 0x2377…4186 | No | BUY | 4 | 99¢ | $4 | 0x2fd714… |
| 07-03 10:40:49 | (anonymous) 0x1d2d…1490 | No | BUY | 15 | 99¢ | $15 | 0x9c9a7d… |
| 07-03 10:40:49 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | SELL | 22 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x9c9a7d… |
| 07-03 10:40:49 | Envious-Personnel 0x7e0f…708e | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x9c9a7d… |
| 07-03 10:40:49 | Angry-Difficulty 0x3881…17c7 | No | SELL | 43 | 99¢ | $42 | 0x9c9a7d… |
| 07-03 10:35:44 | Shameless-Workout-Orchard 0x4d86…1cb2 | Yes | SELL | 33 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xf41836… |
| 07-03 10:35:44 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | SELL | 22 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xf41836… |
| 07-03 10:35:44 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | BUY | 200 | 99¢ | $198 | 0xf41836… |
| 07-03 10:35:44 | Evil-Nature 0x24ba…3d59 | No | SELL | 256 | 99¢ | $253 | 0xf41836… |
| 07-03 10:27:23 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | SELL | 45 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x226c11… |
| 07-03 10:27:23 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 45 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x226c11… |
| 07-03 09:27:22 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 101 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xf6e69f… |
| 07-03 09:27:22 | Skeletal-Hub 0x07e7…31d2 | No | BUY | 101 | 99¢ | $100 | 0xf6e69f… |
| 07-03 09:20:16 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | SELL | 90 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xc54090… |
| 07-03 09:20:16 | Skeletal-Hub 0x07e7…31d2 | No | SELL | 276 | 99¢ | $273 | 0xc54090… |
| 07-03 09:20:16 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | BUY | 186 | 99¢ | $184 | 0xc54090… |
| 07-03 09:13:08 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | BUY | 19 | 99¢ | $19 | 0xf847a2… |
| 07-03 09:13:08 | (anonymous) 0x91b3…77d6 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xf847a2… |
| 07-03 09:05:59 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | BUY | 90 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x293876… |
| 07-03 09:05:59 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | BUY | 90 | 99¢ | $89 | 0x293876… |
| 07-03 09:04:44 | Black-University 0x0044…cb2c | Yes | BUY | 90 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xfde9f7… |
| 07-03 09:04:44 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | BUY | 90 | 99¢ | $89 | 0xfde9f7… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | (anonymous) 0x693e…48ad | No | BUY | 6,774 | 99¢ | $6,693 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Shameless-Workout-Orchard 0x4d86…1cb2 | Yes | BUY | 361 | 1¢ | $4 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Content-Neurobiologist 0x2e68…6898 | No | SELL | 107 | 98¢ | $105 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | (anonymous) 0xcc17…7b65 | No | SELL | 55 | 99¢ | $54 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 200 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Handy-Compost 0x4a03…aedb | No | SELL | 114 | 99¢ | $112 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | (anonymous) 0x1fd2…27a5 | No | SELL | 123 | 98¢ | $121 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Sweet-Wasp 0x13b6…c633 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 1¢ | $2 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Envious-Personnel 0x7e0f…708e | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Sane-Cytokine 0xa9d0…60ed | Yes | BUY | 500 | 1¢ | $5 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | BUY | 466 | 1¢ | $5 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | (anonymous) 0x0f00…c75d | No | SELL | 121 | 98¢ | $119 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 1¢ | $10 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Fickle-Halt-Window 0x279c…2b82 | No | SELL | 82 | 99¢ | $81 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | BUY | 100 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | (anonymous) 0x8130…19da | No | SELL | 120 | 98¢ | $118 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:59:17 | (anonymous) 0xbf61…e2a2 | No | SELL | 120 | 98¢ | $118 | 0x4f1a72… |
| 07-03 08:29:29 | Content-Neurobiologist 0x2e68…6898 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0xaa7e74… |
| 07-03 08:29:29 | (anonymous) 0x9f7c…3e3b | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0xaa7e74… |
| 07-03 07:59:02 | (anonymous) 0x7151…19df | No | BUY | 100 | 98¢ | $98 | 0x9ba920… |
| 07-03 07:59:02 | Super-Stab 0x2377…4186 | No | SELL | 124 | 98¢ | $122 | 0x9ba920… |
| 07-03 07:59:02 | Fickle-Halt-Window 0x279c…2b82 | No | BUY | 24 | 98¢ | $24 | 0x9ba920… |
| 07-03 07:37:04 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 114 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x3f7d9c… |
| 07-03 07:37:04 | Handy-Compost 0x4a03…aedb | No | BUY | 114 | 98¢ | $112 | 0x3f7d9c… |
| 07-03 07:16:04 | (anonymous) 0xe792…1d91 | No | BUY | 25 | 98¢ | $25 | 0x7c5f99… |
| 07-03 07:16:04 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x7c5f99… |
| 07-03 07:10:56 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 6 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xbc33fc… |
| 07-03 07:10:56 | (anonymous) 0x026f…72da | No | BUY | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0xbc33fc… |
| 07-03 06:59:08 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 51 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x36b44d… |
| 07-03 06:59:08 | (anonymous) 0x78b5…8822 | No | BUY | 51 | 98¢ | $50 | 0x36b44d… |
| 07-03 04:32:49 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 198 | 2¢ | $3 | 0xb5dabb… |
| 07-03 04:32:49 | Nocturnal-Baby 0x4067…9795 | No | BUY | 198 | 98¢ | $194 | 0xb5dabb… |
| 07-03 04:07:04 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | SELL | 22 | 98¢ | $22 | 0x2a86c3… |
| 07-03 04:07:04 | (anonymous) 0x222e…b1e8 | No | BUY | 200 | 98¢ | $197 | 0x2a86c3… |
| 07-03 04:07:04 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 2 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x2a86c3… |
| 07-03 04:07:04 | (anonymous) 0x38dd…f4cf | No | SELL | 120 | 98¢ | $118 | 0x2a86c3… |
| 07-03 04:07:04 | (anonymous) 0x947e…2cd6 | No | SELL | 45 | 98¢ | $44 | 0x2a86c3… |
| 07-03 04:07:04 | Gummy-Sale 0xee29…89d8 | No | SELL | 11 | 98¢ | $11 | 0x2a86c3… |
| 07-03 03:11:56 | (anonymous) 0x947e…2cd6 | No | SELL | 21 | 98¢ | $21 | 0x5fe875… |
| 07-03 03:11:56 | (anonymous) 0x7a71…4883 | No | BUY | 21 | 98¢ | $21 | 0x5fe875… |
| 07-03 02:13:44 | (anonymous) 0x947e…2cd6 | No | SELL | 54 | 98¢ | $53 | 0x528bf0… |
| 07-03 02:13:44 | (anonymous) 0x2d4c…e4b7 | No | SELL | 82 | 98¢ | $81 | 0x528bf0… |
| 07-03 02:13:44 | Overjoyed-Inclusion 0xd9eb…61c0 | No | BUY | 136 | 98¢ | $134 | 0x528bf0… |
| 07-03 00:51:59 | (anonymous) 0xc5f4…d9d4 | Yes | SELL | 321 | 2¢ | $6 | 0x62391a… |
| 07-03 00:51:59 | (anonymous) 0xedf2…3843 | No | SELL | 321 | 98¢ | $315 | 0x62391a… |
| 07-03 00:51:22 | (anonymous) 0xb232…8f77 | Yes | SELL | 318 | 2¢ | $6 | 0xf4c901… |
| 07-03 00:51:22 | (anonymous) 0xedf2…3843 | No | SELL | 318 | 98¢ | $312 | 0xf4c901… |
| 07-02 23:02:56 | (anonymous) 0x02b2…c8b4 | No | SELL | 23 | 98¢ | $23 | 0x96aaac… |
| 07-02 23:02:56 | (anonymous) 0x2d4c…e4b7 | No | SELL | 37 | 98¢ | $36 | 0x96aaac… |
| 07-02 23:02:56 | (anonymous) 0x75b8…dc0f | No | SELL | 120 | 98¢ | $118 | 0x96aaac… |
| 07-02 23:02:56 | (anonymous) 0x7b92…eecc | No | BUY | 300 | 98¢ | $295 | 0x96aaac… |
| 07-02 23:02:56 | (anonymous) 0xda6e…5c58 | No | SELL | 120 | 98¢ | $118 | 0x96aaac… |
| 07-02 22:49:10 | (anonymous) 0xc017…3b30 | No | BUY | 300 | 98¢ | $295 | 0x69c21e… |
| 07-02 22:49:10 | (anonymous) 0x02b2…c8b4 | No | SELL | 100 | 98¢ | $98 | 0x69c21e… |
| 07-02 22:49:10 | Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | SELL | 200 | 98¢ | $197 | 0x69c21e… |
| 07-02 20:10:07 | Knotty-Trowel 0x921d…efb8 | Yes | SELL | 259 | 2¢ | $5 | 0x179a17… |
| 07-02 20:10:07 | Fickle-Halt-Window 0x279c…2b82 | No | BUY | 59 | 98¢ | $57 | 0x179a17… |
| 07-02 20:10:07 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | BUY | 22 | 98¢ | $22 | 0x179a17… |
| 07-02 20:10:07 | Gummy-Sale 0xee29…89d8 | No | BUY | 11 | 98¢ | $11 | 0x179a17… |
| 07-02 20:10:07 | (anonymous) 0xd35b…e5d1 | No | SELL | 1,053 | 98¢ | $1,033 | 0x179a17… |
| 07-02 20:10:07 | Double-Rutabaga 0xea96…2fb8 | No | BUY | 502 | 98¢ | $493 | 0x179a17… |
| 07-02 20:10:07 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | BUY | 200 | 98¢ | $196 | 0x179a17… |
| 07-02 17:21:37 | Knotty-Trowel 0x921d…efb8 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 2¢ | $4 | 0xd6e8f3… |
| 07-02 17:21:37 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 200 | 2¢ | $4 | 0xd6e8f3… |
| 07-02 17:15:14 | Novel-Bitten 0x91ca…0957 | Yes | BUY | 3,617 | 2¢ | $65 | 0x1be9dc… |
| 07-02 17:15:14 | Knotty-Trowel 0x921d…efb8 | Yes | SELL | 3,702 | 2¢ | $67 | 0x1be9dc… |
| 07-02 17:15:14 | Gummy-Sale 0xee29…89d8 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x1be9dc… |
| 07-02 17:15:14 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | SELL | 22 | 98¢ | $21 | 0x1be9dc… |
| 07-02 17:15:14 | (anonymous) 0x9c3d…41f3 | No | SELL | 53 | 98¢ | $52 | 0x1be9dc… |
| 07-02 17:06:53 | (anonymous) 0xe81c…fd16 | No | BUY | 100 | 98¢ | $98 | 0x263b32… |
| 07-02 17:06:53 | Novel-Bitten 0x91ca…0957 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x263b32… |
| 07-02 16:23:46 | (anonymous) 0x220e…9223 | No | BUY | 15 | 98¢ | $15 | 0xd676f7… |
| 07-02 16:23:46 | Novel-Bitten 0x91ca…0957 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xd676f7… |
| 07-02 11:56:05 | Double-Rutabaga 0xea96…2fb8 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x121a16… |
| 07-02 11:56:05 | Hot-Kale 0xe5a5…a6e0 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x121a16… |