Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,482,419
$511 in 24h
Trades
15,677
Unique wallets
4,652
Liquidity
$73,633
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2026-09-30
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-13 14:24
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+4.3¢
(top1%: 6% YES on $4.2K
vs crowd: 1% YES on $802.3K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 47 | $614 | $103.8K | $103.2K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 76 | $660 | $400.9K | $400.2K |
| 🐟 Fish | 569 | $3.5K | $100.6K | $97.2K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 3,960 | $6.3K | $185.9K | $179.6K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 8 | $237 | $4.0K | $3.7K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 44 | $464 | $55.9K | $55.4K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 19 | $64 | $25.2K | $25.1K |
| Median | 705 | $838 | $39.0K | $38.1K |
| Below median | 370 | $503 | $21.0K | $20.5K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 23 | $579 | $1.8K | $1.2K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 26 | $142 | $6.5K | $6.4K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 18 | $172 | $24.1K | $24.0K |
| unranked | 3,439 | $8.0K | $613.8K | $605.8K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate-Execution 0x16e2…5f01 | Yes | +43,591 | $2,172 | $2,172 | 17 | 06-22 14:35 |
| Novel-Bitten 0x91ca…0957 | Yes | +24,986 | $466 | $895 | 39 | 07-31 05:40 |
| Hidden-Contrast 0x4ee4…18ef | No | +20,459 | $20,000 | $20,000 | 1 | 07-01 14:43 |
| Devoted-Offramp 0x527b…eb08 | Yes | +17,408 | $900 | $1,700 | 6 | 05-31 20:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xd3c2…d215 | Yes | +16,233 | $219 | $219 | 1 | 07-21 19:36 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +15,263 | $308 | $308 | 237 | 08-01 15:33 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +13,630 | $13,349 | $13,349 | 214 | 08-01 14:20 |
| Threadbare-Signal 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | +11,538 | $176 | $236 | 76 | 07-31 22:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | +10,935 | $10,730 | $70,225 | 199 | 08-13 14:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x96e8…bf9f | Yes | +10,000 | $130 | $130 | 1 | 07-31 19:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc81…4fad | Yes | +7,575 | $110 | $110 | 1 | 07-23 17:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x693e…48ad | No | +6,774 | $6,693 | $6,693 | 1 | 07-03 08:59 |
| Cute-Miss 0x4f12…8211 | No | +5,000 | $4,845 | $4,845 | 1 | 06-23 10:40 |
| Sneaky-Necessity 0x0ead…9572 | No | +4,858 | $4,800 | $4,800 | 1 | 08-12 06:04 |
| Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | +4,114 | $4,041 | $41,883 | 191 | 08-13 08:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xeb4e…e956 | Yes | +3,245 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-07 12:53 |
| Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | +3,100 | $37 | $37 | 25 | 08-04 15:55 |
| Trusty-Guidance 0x8055…44c4 | No | +3,000 | $2,964 | $2,964 | 1 | 08-01 21:02 |
| Qualified-Hypothermia 0x07d4…8991 | Yes | +2,700 | $18 | $80 | 12 | 07-03 08:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x281b…5233 | No | +2,338 | $2,291 | $2,291 | 2 | 07-24 04:28 |
| Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | +2,234 | $40 | $186 | 26 | 07-11 08:35 |
| Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | +2,200 | $-112 | $268 | 10 | 07-03 08:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x0a30…b1be | No | +2,108 | $2,060 | $2,060 | 1 | 07-01 11:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xaa2a…e051 | Yes | +2,108 | $60 | $60 | 1 | 06-06 18:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x58ab…7a72 | No | +2,059 | $2,000 | $2,000 | 1 | 06-15 21:07 |
| Double-Rutabaga 0xea96…2fb8 | No | +1,650 | $1,623 | $1,623 | 14 | 07-05 17:44 |
| Natural-Intensity 0x9cb9…7b80 | No | +1,500 | $1,482 | $1,482 | 1 | 08-09 09:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x2b01…59e6 | Yes | +1,401 | $21 | $21 | 1 | 07-18 14:13 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +1,383 | $1,364 | $1,364 | 6 | 07-30 22:43 |
| Prickly-Signup 0x0dde…94c3 | No | +1,318 | $974 | $11,986 | 3 | 06-23 10:40 |
| Tempting-Syndicate 0x8d3b…b567 | Yes | +1,295 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 07-10 07:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x703b…6627 | Yes | +1,079 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 06-06 16:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xd4bd…63f4 | Yes | +1,063 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 07-23 15:50 |
| Empty-Addiction 0x4818…bf0b | Yes | +1,059 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 07-03 14:39 |
| 0x62551fced91fb27330232c2b4b36532eb32fdebc 0x5f37…204c | No | +1,000 | $978 | $978 | 1 | 07-01 08:02 |
| Rich-Try 0xd5e3…e379 | No | +1,000 | $972 | $972 | 1 | 06-15 05:55 |
| Hideous-Package 0x21c5…3533 | No | +1,000 | $988 | $988 | 1 | 08-01 12:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x1949…0326 | No | +1,000 | $985 | $985 | 8 | 07-09 08:03 |
| Limp-Tablecloth 0x94bd…6184 | No | +965 | $852 | $11,650 | 44 | 07-20 13:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xd499…df5b | No | +924 | $900 | $900 | 1 | 06-27 02:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xbd13…a7a6 | No | +905 | $894 | $894 | 1 | 08-01 06:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x109d…4b20 | No | +889 | $877 | $877 | 1 | 07-20 05:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x108f…7937 | Yes | +854 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 07-08 11:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x8ca6…a980 | Yes | +786 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 06-17 13:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x31fb…dab5 | Yes | +770 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 08-08 15:37 |
| Hollow-Boysenberry 0xfb86…5631 | No | +769 | $760 | $760 | 1 | 08-07 08:02 |
| Sleepy-Disconnection 0xc96a…702c | No | +708 | $699 | $699 | 2 | 07-16 23:00 |
| Blue-Tab 0xfe2d…a830 | No | +676 | $657 | $1,543 | 2 | 06-15 02:25 |
| Elaborate-Recapitulation 0x6a3d…e38c | Yes | +645 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 06-26 02:00 |
| Yawning-Premeditation 0xf3a5…5f3c | No | +595 | $567 | $3,221 | 51 | 08-02 18:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x5d25…b703 | No | +591 | $584 | $584 | 1 | 08-01 05:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xfa39…977f | No | +581 | $550 | $550 | 5 | 06-22 14:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x33a4…561b | No | +506 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 08-10 07:42 |
| Sane-Cytokine 0xa9d0…60ed | Yes | +500 | $-5 | $25 | 3 | 07-03 08:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x015d…d886 | Yes | +462 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 08-02 06:15 |
| Worthwhile-Sock 0x682c…17ae | Yes | +444 | $20 | $436 | 140 | 07-01 11:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x2d48…678c | Yes | +400 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-18 12:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x9bf2…57d4 | Yes | +400 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 07-25 22:49 |
| Celebrated-Blowhole 0x02f0…1a03 | Yes | +400 | $12 | $12 | 4 | 06-23 09:57 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 14:24:19 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 13 | 99¢ | $13 | 0xc16210… |
| 08-13 14:24:19 | Carefree-Wage 0xac2f…2779 | No | BUY | 13 | 99¢ | $13 | 0xc16210… |
| 08-13 13:37:13 | (anonymous) 0xc945…73f5 | No | BUY | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0xdbd48b… |
| 08-13 13:37:13 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0xdbd48b… |
| 08-13 10:44:52 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x5275cc… |
| 08-13 10:44:52 | Drab-Heaven 0xaff3…6ecc | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x5275cc… |
| 08-13 09:36:40 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x8d5788… |
| 08-13 09:36:40 | (anonymous) 0x5c50…6c85 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x8d5788… |
| 08-13 08:29:51 | (anonymous) 0x16a0…07df | No | SELL | 15 | 99¢ | $14 | 0xbf1a5f… |
| 08-13 08:29:51 | Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | BUY | 15 | 99¢ | $14 | 0xbf1a5f… |
| 08-13 08:03:09 | Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | BUY | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0x95b826… |
| 08-13 08:03:09 | Unwilling-Afoul 0xfe5e…b9b4 | No | SELL | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0x95b826… |
| 08-13 08:02:03 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x2c33d4… |
| 08-13 08:02:03 | (anonymous) 0xaa6b…f902 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x2c33d4… |
| 08-13 05:07:48 | Velvety-Outlaw 0x1ee7…4ea8 | No | BUY | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0x4c876a… |
| 08-13 05:07:48 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0x4c876a… |
| 08-13 02:03:34 | Adventurous-Council 0x6407…d969 | No | BUY | 3 | 99¢ | $3 | 0x8f22af… |
| 08-13 02:03:34 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 3 | 99¢ | $3 | 0x8f22af… |
| 08-13 01:53:27 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 28 | 99¢ | $28 | 0x352fa9… |
| 08-13 01:53:27 | (anonymous) 0x3324…b3ab | No | BUY | 28 | 99¢ | $28 | 0x352fa9… |
| 08-13 00:46:00 | Imperturbable-Trafficker 0xd93a…39dd | No | SELL | 116 | 99¢ | $114 | 0xac4248… |
| 08-13 00:46:00 | Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | BUY | 116 | 99¢ | $114 | 0xac4248… |
| 08-12 16:21:25 | (anonymous) 0xe4e8…b071 | No | BUY | 40 | 99¢ | $40 | 0x58c8d1… |
| 08-12 16:21:25 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 40 | 99¢ | $40 | 0x58c8d1… |
| 08-12 16:17:40 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0xc804f0… |
| 08-12 16:17:40 | (anonymous) 0xc107…165c | No | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0xc804f0… |
| 08-12 16:14:06 | (anonymous) 0xcdc8…06ca | No | BUY | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0x08c27f… |
| 08-12 16:14:06 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0x08c27f… |
| 08-12 16:07:31 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x59d0f4… |
| 08-12 16:07:31 | Drab-Heaven 0xaff3…6ecc | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x59d0f4… |
| 08-12 15:48:42 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 253 | 99¢ | $250 | 0xf01fc8… |
| 08-12 15:48:42 | (anonymous) 0x0334…2c11 | No | BUY | 253 | 99¢ | $250 | 0xf01fc8… |
| 08-12 13:26:04 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x81527e… |
| 08-12 13:26:04 | (anonymous) 0x40ee…344b | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x81527e… |
| 08-12 13:15:18 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x38022e… |
| 08-12 13:15:18 | Likely-Peek 0x1b98…7061 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x38022e… |
| 08-12 08:58:10 | (anonymous) 0xf53d…b0c8 | No | BUY | 400 | 99¢ | $395 | 0xdb964b… |
| 08-12 08:58:10 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 400 | 99¢ | $395 | 0xdb964b… |
| 08-12 07:22:55 | (anonymous) 0x1f97…45a3 | No | SELL | 17 | 99¢ | $17 | 0x6f4b4f… |
| 08-12 07:22:55 | Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | BUY | 17 | 99¢ | $17 | 0x6f4b4f… |
| 08-12 06:04:25 | (anonymous) 0xe146…5f5f | No | SELL | 23 | 99¢ | $23 | 0x0ec8b1… |
| 08-12 06:04:25 | (anonymous) 0x8354…733b | No | SELL | 124 | 99¢ | $123 | 0x0ec8b1… |
| 08-12 06:04:25 | (anonymous) 0xf2c3…cb84 | No | SELL | 125 | 99¢ | $123 | 0x0ec8b1… |
| 08-12 06:04:25 | Sneaky-Necessity 0x0ead…9572 | No | BUY | 4,858 | 99¢ | $4,800 | 0x0ec8b1… |
| 08-12 06:04:25 | (anonymous) 0xd2ff…27b7 | No | SELL | 122 | 99¢ | $120 | 0x0ec8b1… |
| 08-12 06:04:25 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 4,075 | 99¢ | $4,026 | 0x0ec8b1… |
| 08-12 03:28:01 | Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | BUY | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0x35ebd5… |
| 08-12 03:28:01 | Sticky-Harbor 0xdfa1…e99f | No | SELL | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0x35ebd5… |
| 08-12 03:10:00 | Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | BUY | 13 | 99¢ | $13 | 0x5fc515… |
| 08-12 03:10:00 | Natural-Comparison 0xe581…5d56 | No | SELL | 13 | 99¢ | $13 | 0x5fc515… |
| 08-12 03:01:24 | (anonymous) 0x5c55…6e05 | No | SELL | 36 | 99¢ | $36 | 0xe719cf… |
| 08-12 03:01:24 | Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | BUY | 36 | 99¢ | $36 | 0xe719cf… |
| 08-12 02:30:33 | Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x7dc862… |
| 08-12 02:30:33 | (anonymous) 0xcc6d…d5f1 | No | SELL | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x7dc862… |
| 08-12 01:25:19 | Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | BUY | 106 | 99¢ | $105 | 0x28a0c8… |
| 08-12 01:25:19 | (anonymous) 0xf526…a495 | No | SELL | 106 | 99¢ | $105 | 0x28a0c8… |
| 08-12 00:38:18 | Grounded-Mama 0x6c5b…ac38 | No | BUY | 67 | 99¢ | $66 | 0x6e1fc5… |
| 08-12 00:38:18 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 67 | 99¢ | $66 | 0x6e1fc5… |
| 08-11 17:08:22 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 329 | 99¢ | $325 | 0x68c635… |
| 08-11 17:08:22 | (anonymous) 0x53e9…9449 | No | BUY | 329 | 99¢ | $325 | 0x68c635… |
| 08-11 16:15:15 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 25 | 99¢ | $25 | 0x51d65a… |
| 08-11 16:15:15 | (anonymous) 0x9503…253d | No | BUY | 25 | 99¢ | $25 | 0x51d65a… |
| 08-11 13:43:12 | (anonymous) 0xd339…b12d | No | BUY | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x72634d… |
| 08-11 13:43:12 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 30 | 99¢ | $30 | 0x72634d… |
| 08-11 12:41:03 | (anonymous) 0x16a7…bfd0 | No | BUY | 40 | 99¢ | $40 | 0x4b414a… |
| 08-11 12:41:03 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 40 | 99¢ | $40 | 0x4b414a… |
| 08-11 08:49:30 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0xb675b3… |
| 08-11 08:49:30 | (anonymous) 0xeaa5…ea6d | No | BUY | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0xb675b3… |
| 08-11 08:48:43 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 33 | 99¢ | $33 | 0x7e9d17… |
| 08-11 08:48:43 | (anonymous) 0xfc5c…ee68 | No | BUY | 33 | 99¢ | $33 | 0x7e9d17… |
| 08-11 08:06:54 | (anonymous) 0xcde6…d0d9 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x233c28… |
| 08-11 08:06:54 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x233c28… |
| 08-11 07:22:24 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xbfd9bc… |
| 08-11 07:22:24 | (anonymous) 0x0167…d156 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xbfd9bc… |
| 08-11 05:25:15 | Clean-Simplicity 0x52ab…c26c | No | BUY | 222 | 99¢ | $219 | 0x8dd9ff… |
| 08-11 05:25:15 | Pleasant-Choosing 0x1a9f…d944 | No | SELL | 276 | 99¢ | $272 | 0x8dd9ff… |
| 08-11 05:25:15 | (anonymous) 0xc85e…d5c5 | No | BUY | 55 | 99¢ | $54 | 0x8dd9ff… |
| 08-11 04:38:28 | Straight-Folder 0x591b…54e7 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x8d3b5a… |
| 08-11 04:38:28 | (anonymous) 0xc85e…d5c5 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x8d3b5a… |
| 08-11 04:22:37 | (anonymous) 0xc85e…d5c5 | No | BUY | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0xe12205… |
| 08-11 04:22:37 | Ready-Menu 0xe06b…8aa0 | No | SELL | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0xe12205… |
| 08-11 03:04:09 | (anonymous) 0xc85e…d5c5 | No | BUY | 36 | 99¢ | $35 | 0xc13136… |
| 08-11 03:04:09 | (anonymous) 0x5f91…cb18 | No | SELL | 36 | 99¢ | $35 | 0xc13136… |
| 08-11 02:32:12 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 15 | 99¢ | $15 | 0x4d4f32… |
| 08-11 02:32:12 | (anonymous) 0x8fb1…445b | No | BUY | 15 | 99¢ | $15 | 0x4d4f32… |
| 08-11 02:31:10 | (anonymous) 0x5c8c…32c9 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x55e9d8… |
| 08-11 02:31:10 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x55e9d8… |
| 08-10 23:37:22 | (anonymous) 0x6e30…af87 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xb99884… |
| 08-10 23:37:22 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 40 | 99¢ | $40 | 0xb99884… |
| 08-10 16:23:52 | (anonymous) 0xe4e8…b071 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x4106f5… |
| 08-10 16:23:52 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x4106f5… |
| 08-10 14:59:36 | (anonymous) 0xe146…5f5f | No | SELL | 99 | 99¢ | $98 | 0xbfcaca… |
| 08-10 14:59:36 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | BUY | 99 | 99¢ | $98 | 0xbfcaca… |
| 08-10 14:42:25 | (anonymous) 0x220e…9223 | No | BUY | 150 | 99¢ | $148 | 0xd0ad18… |
| 08-10 14:42:25 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 150 | 99¢ | $148 | 0xd0ad18… |
| 08-10 10:09:24 | Drab-Heaven 0xaff3…6ecc | Yes | SELL | 77 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xbe3415… |
| 08-10 10:09:24 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 77 | 99¢ | $76 | 0xbe3415… |
| 08-10 08:35:06 | (anonymous) 0xa642…b419 | No | SELL | 71 | 99¢ | $71 | 0xc08aae… |
| 08-10 08:35:06 | (anonymous) 0x69ac…be5a | Yes | SELL | 71 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xc08aae… |
| 08-10 08:02:42 | (anonymous) 0xea45…fa09 | No | BUY | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0xb46abb… |