Elaborate-Recapitulation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$483

Unrealized P&L

-$70

Hit rate

51.6%

Resolved

386

Trades

1,002

lifetime

Volume

$5.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$65

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 07-18 01:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 67 days

Categories

Other

43% 18% -$820

Politics

42% 43% +$403

Crypto

15% 49% -$65

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-18).

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+575	$38	4¢	$24	-$14	06-26 02:03
US x China Military clash before 2027?	Yes	+797	$55	2¢	$20	-$35	05-12 14:50
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	+115	$20	7¢	$8	-$12	06-26 02:00
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	-51	-$1	8¢	$-4	-$4	07-18 01:25
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+172	$10	2¢	$4	-$6	06-26 01:59
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Yes	+58	$5	6¢	$3	-$2	05-09 00:33
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	-21	-$5	6¢	$-1	+$4	05-06 21:44
will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	Yes	+25	$2	3¢	$1	-$1	06-26 02:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	12	$661	884	935	-51	open	—	07-18 01:25
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	18	$408	1,696	1,696	+0	No	+$42	04-22 00:10
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	3	$301	275	275	+0	Yes	+$245	04-19 13:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$295	209	209	+0	No	+$23	05-08 18:21
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	5	$277	1,180	590	+590	No	-$183	06-11 00:44
Netanyahu out by April 30?	7	$269	8,953	7,834	+1,119	No	-$77	04-15 06:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	3	$207	197	197	+0	Yes	+$187	05-09 05:12
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	10	$195	7,156	0	+7,156	No	-$195	03-28 00:29
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	9	$164	121	121	+0	Yes	+$32	04-05 03:26
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	6	$146	176	176	+0	Yes	+$113	02-28 09:39
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	4	$133	326	326	+0	Yes	+$13	04-19 20:19
Trump out as President by June 30?	4	$120	5,923	0	+5,923	No	-$120	05-09 00:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$117	78	78	+0	No	-$3	04-21 13:48
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	4	$94	320	320	+0	Yes	-$36	04-18 03:48
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$90	1,046	0	+1,046	Yes	-$90	05-09 15:53
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	6	$84	561	0	+561	No	-$84	05-09 05:18
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$80	86	86	+0	No	+$10	04-22 21:31
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	4	$70	112	0	+112	Yes	+$42	02-27 19:59
will gas hit high 5pt00 by march 31	5	$66	293	293	+0	No	-$14	03-23 03:28
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	6	$65	1,514	1,514	+0	No	-$29	03-23 03:28
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	4	$56	386	386	+0	No	-$50	06-26 02:02
US x China Military clash before 2027?	2	$55	797	0	+797	open	—	05-12 14:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$54	50	50	+0	Yes	+$46	05-09 05:13
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	3	$54	234	119	+115	open	—	06-26 02:00
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	3	$52	8,600	8,600	+0	No	-$34	04-18 03:44
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	2	$46	1,124	1,124	+0	No	+$6	05-09 15:57
will gas hit high 4pt50 by march 31	3	$42	100	81	+19	No	-$14	03-23 03:29
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	2	$38	575	0	+575	open	—	06-26 02:03
Trump out as President by May 31?	6	$37	4,033	0	+4,033	No	-$37	05-07 02:37
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	5	$36	534	250	+284	No	-$6	03-11 21:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 01:25:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	252	30¢	$76	0x55a07a…
06-26 02:03:59	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x944f84…
06-26 02:02:53	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	386	1¢	$3	0xa47579…
06-26 02:01:28	will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xef0faa…
06-26 02:00:52	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	484	3¢	$15	0xef07c3…
06-26 02:00:34	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	119	14¢	$17	0xe6a8ce…
06-26 01:59:59	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	161	3¢	$5	0x8eb79f…
06-26 01:59:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	6¢	$10	0x8e37f6…
06-21 17:48:08	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x6e0de0…
06-20 03:44:16	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	322	6¢	$20	0x165130…
06-20 03:43:35	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	64	50¢	$32	0x3f06a6…
06-20 02:54:58	Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xb60145…
06-20 02:54:38	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x7cd8b0…
06-20 02:54:25	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	234	2¢	$5	0xa2c4ac…
06-11 00:47:45	Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x28418a…
06-11 00:45:39	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0x9a8340…
06-11 00:44:03	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	SELL	590	8¢	$47	0x2e01aa…
06-11 00:29:04	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x35b291…
05-24 17:07:10	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	287	3¢	$10	0xea1819…
05-12 14:50:44	US x China Military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	726	7¢	$50	0x2552a8…
05-12 14:38:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	58	5¢	$3	0xa5ffb2…
05-10 05:42:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0x86f78d…
05-09 16:00:46	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	493	2¢	$10	0x7acd05…
05-09 15:57:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,124	2¢	$26	0x28337b…
05-09 15:53:15	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	1,046	9¢	$90	0x8664fc…
05-09 05:24:37	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	220	16¢	$35	0x37ca41…
05-09 05:19:20	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0x885310…
05-09 05:19:19	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0x0a7e8b…
05-09 05:18:28	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	294	7¢	$20	0x1ec3c3…
05-09 05:13:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xb59ff4…
05-09 05:12:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	197	100¢	$197	0x9a7d07…
05-09 00:48:07	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x7dab7b…
05-09 00:43:39	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x8b5cce…
05-09 00:39:31	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x5dcff2…
05-09 00:36:29	US x China Military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xbdc36d…
05-09 00:33:48	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	9¢	$5	0x7947d3…
05-09 00:27:58	Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xc717a0…
05-09 00:22:50	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0xb7a8eb…
05-09 00:19:39	Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,778	2¢	$50	0x13e567…
05-09 00:16:09	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,124	2¢	$20	0x613fa7…
05-09 00:06:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xfbd201…
05-09 00:05:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	93	27¢	$25	0xb20370…
05-08 18:21:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	209	76¢	$159	0x4c10d9…
05-08 05:12:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa6823d…
05-07 14:34:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x9e3aea…
05-07 14:33:55	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	280	36¢	$101	0x5f52d0…
05-07 14:29:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0xa78275…
05-07 14:29:17	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	85	36¢	$31	0x546a13…
05-07 13:50:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0xb051d3…
05-07 13:49:30	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x7c77a3…
05-07 02:51:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xedeee4…
05-07 02:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x7f47ef…
05-07 02:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x3e05c8…
05-07 02:44:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb453a7…
05-07 02:37:46	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb8710a…
05-07 02:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	7	22¢	$2	0xb82d5c…
05-07 02:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x0404e3…
05-07 02:31:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xa2c3dd…
05-07 02:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x42fea8…
05-07 02:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0x178631…
05-07 02:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xbf979d…
05-07 02:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x76295d…
05-07 02:20:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x706911…
05-07 02:19:32	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x393521…
05-07 00:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xacb4fa…
05-07 00:28:23	Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x93d87e…
05-07 00:27:46	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	36¢	$5	0xa6b556…
05-07 00:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x4aa7b9…
05-07 00:22:15	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x990d78…
05-07 00:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	54	7¢	$4	0xfdfc0d…
05-07 00:16:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc7f8e4…
05-07 00:16:08	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	36¢	$5	0x43d4c0…
05-07 00:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0xc6fe21…
05-07 00:10:13	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$4	0x0c9489…
05-07 00:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	46¢	$4	0xb1ec16…
05-07 00:07:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xcfb284…
05-07 00:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x11d712…
05-07 00:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x3c3314…
05-07 00:05:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	52¢	$2	0x304336…
05-07 00:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x69bccd…
05-07 00:04:10	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x06cc1c…
05-07 00:02:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0xc30418…
05-07 00:01:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xf1f81c…
05-07 00:01:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x0824da…
05-06 23:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0ac0d7…
05-06 23:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0xc66aa8…
05-06 23:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x7855d4…
05-06 23:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0xde5fd8…
05-06 23:49:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x24930b…
05-06 23:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x4e4c71…
05-06 23:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xd37003…
05-06 22:02:12	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xef6b5a…
05-06 21:56:18	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	BUY	94	16¢	$15	0x189c1b…
05-06 21:55:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	BUY	909	2¢	$20	0x504a10…
05-06 21:55:33	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,333	1¢	$12	0x436046…
05-06 21:55:12	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	155	36¢	$56	0xcfc6a2…
05-06 21:52:19	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	889	1¢	$8	0x34439a…
05-06 21:51:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xb05e1e…
05-06 21:50:16	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	SELL	153	8¢	$12	0x489af5…
05-06 21:44:35	Trump out as President by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,111	1¢	$10	0x9ddeb4…