Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,270
$265 in 24h
Trades
135
Unique wallets
48
Liquidity
$15,053
Latest YES mid
10¢
Latest NO mid
90¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-01
last 06-15 18:04
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 6 | $13 | $58 | $46 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $16 | $451 | $435 |
| 🐟 Fish | 9 | $39 | $117 | $78 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 24 | $109 | $66 | +$43 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 9 | $25 | $26 | $2 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $14 | $38 | $24 |
| Median | 3 | $16 | $2 | +$14 |
| Below median | 5 | $8 | — | +$8 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $5 | $195 | $190 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | $8 | $32 | $24 |
| unranked | 22 | $100 | $400 | $300 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | +251 | $212 | $224 | 8 | 06-10 22:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x275d…4589 | Yes | +130 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | +105 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-02 21:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x2f89…f5c5 | Yes | +96 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-10 14:27 |
| Bubbly-Mug 0x3030…86ae | Yes | +81 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-10 18:33 |
| Flawed-Imagination 0x3ad0…1153 | Yes | +67 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-10 16:26 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +60 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 06-11 00:01 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | +38 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +37 | $2 | $14 | 10 | 06-14 22:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x9fc3…1f1f | Yes | +36 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-10 19:53 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | Yes | +28 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-10 15:35 |
| Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | No | +28 | $23 | $67 | 3 | 06-10 22:20 |
| Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | +28 | $3 | $10 | 3 | 06-10 22:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | +24 | $3 | $3 | 3 | 06-11 00:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | +24 | $21 | $21 | 3 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +21 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-02 21:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xc287…6c73 | Yes | +18 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 12:14 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | +15 | $2 | $13 | 6 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Neat-Derivation 0xed3c…8ae5 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 18:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x1443…8ae1 | Yes | +14 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 20:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x07e7…06bd | Yes | +14 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 01:14 |
| Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | +12 | $2 | $4 | 2 | 06-10 22:17 |
| Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | +11 | $1 | $1 | 3 | 06-11 05:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x67dc…8b11 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-10 12:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xf523…ec90 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 13:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x7253…e306 | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 15:14 |
| Low-Poverty 0x36bf…7d9e | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 15:21 |
| Flawless-Bungalow 0x7f70…ae05 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-11 04:14 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-11 04:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $13 | 15 | 06-11 02:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x4dd4…a11a | No | +4 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-11 05:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x5ee5…a863 | No | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 01:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xdfa1…ecbb | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 05:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x5e89…c3e0 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 09:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x81f8…3477 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 10:44 |
| Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | +1 | $-2 | $30 | 2 | 06-10 22:16 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 18:04:34 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | SELL | 148 | 92¢ | $136 | 0xaa5cda… |
| 06-15 18:04:34 | Unfit-Champagne 0xd7ca…ebd1 | Yes | SELL | 148 | 8¢ | $12 | 0xaa5cda… |
| 06-14 22:32:22 | Pertinent-Vengeance 0x0275…b936 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x0f3c30… |
| 06-14 22:32:22 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 13 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x0f3c30… |
| 06-13 03:42:10 | (anonymous) 0xb20b…d46e | Yes | SELL | 46 | 8¢ | $4 | 0xfbb3b9… |
| 06-13 03:42:10 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 8 | 92¢ | $7 | 0xfbb3b9… |
| 06-13 03:42:10 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | SELL | 38 | 92¢ | $35 | 0xfbb3b9… |
| 06-11 15:32:01 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 2 | 92¢ | $2 | 0x347aac… |
| 06-11 15:32:01 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | Yes | SELL | 2 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x347aac… |
| 06-11 09:47:18 | (anonymous) 0x5e89…c3e0 | No | BUY | 2 | 92¢ | $2 | 0x6f47e3… |
| 06-11 09:47:18 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 2 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x6f47e3… |
| 06-11 05:56:54 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | Yes | BUY | 2 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x7e4b77… |
| 06-11 05:56:54 | (anonymous) 0xdfa1…ecbb | No | BUY | 2 | 91¢ | $2 | 0x7e4b77… |
| 06-11 05:36:03 | Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | BUY | 4 | 10¢ | $0 | 0xa9acb5… |
| 06-11 05:36:03 | (anonymous) 0x4dd4…a11a | No | BUY | 4 | 90¢ | $4 | 0xa9acb5… |
| 06-11 04:14:36 | Flawless-Bungalow 0x7f70…ae05 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xe08f51… |
| 06-11 04:14:36 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0xe08f51… |
| 06-11 02:19:30 | Utilized-Principle 0x3d12…4b82 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x855973… |
| 06-11 02:19:30 | Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | BUY | 4 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x855973… |
| 06-11 02:19:28 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0x8abc17… |
| 06-11 02:19:28 | (anonymous) 0x275d…4589 | Yes | BUY | 130 | 15¢ | $20 | 0x8abc17… |
| 06-11 02:19:28 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | Yes | SELL | 28 | 13¢ | $4 | 0x8abc17… |
| 06-11 02:19:28 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x8abc17… |
| 06-11 02:19:28 | Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | BUY | 38 | 84¢ | $32 | 0x8abc17… |
| 06-11 02:19:28 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | BUY | 8 | 87¢ | $7 | 0x8abc17… |
| 06-11 02:19:28 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x8abc17… |
| 06-11 01:53:18 | (anonymous) 0x5ee5…a863 | No | BUY | 3 | 92¢ | $2 | 0xc21a35… |
| 06-11 01:53:18 | Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | BUY | 3 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xc21a35… |
| 06-11 01:14:12 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | BUY | 8 | 86¢ | $7 | 0xa1821e… |
| 06-11 01:14:12 | (anonymous) 0x07e7…06bd | Yes | BUY | 14 | 14¢ | $2 | 0xa1821e… |
| 06-11 01:14:12 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 14¢ | $1 | 0xa1821e… |
| 06-11 00:02:01 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | Yes | BUY | 28 | 10¢ | $3 | 0xd42f42… |
| 06-11 00:02:01 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 28 | 90¢ | $25 | 0xd42f42… |
| 06-11 00:01:27 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | BUY | 8 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x9805d9… |
| 06-11 00:01:27 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 38 | 90¢ | $34 | 0x9805d9… |
| 06-11 00:01:27 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 10¢ | $3 | 0x9805d9… |
| 06-10 23:55:27 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | BUY | 8 | 92¢ | $7 | 0xba20bb… |
| 06-10 23:55:27 | Babyish-Starboard 0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xba20bb… |
| 06-10 23:55:27 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | SELL | 42 | 92¢ | $38 | 0xba20bb… |
| 06-10 23:55:27 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xba20bb… |
| 06-10 23:55:27 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xba20bb… |
| 06-10 22:33:43 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xba6687… |
| 06-10 22:33:43 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 7 | 91¢ | $6 | 0xba6687… |
| 06-10 22:31:42 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | BUY | 8 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x6a1dca… |
| 06-10 22:31:42 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | Yes | SELL | 32 | 8¢ | $3 | 0x6a1dca… |
| 06-10 22:31:42 | Pertinent-Vengeance 0x0275…b936 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xa8082e… |
| 06-10 22:31:42 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 56 | 87¢ | $49 | 0xa8082e… |
| 06-10 22:31:42 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | SELL | 24 | 92¢ | $22 | 0x6a1dca… |
| 06-10 22:31:42 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0xa8082e… |
| 06-10 22:31:42 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xa8082e… |
| 06-10 22:31:42 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 13¢ | $2 | 0xa8082e… |
| 06-10 22:20:09 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | BUY | 8 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x139f71… |
| 06-10 22:20:09 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | No | SELL | 26 | 84¢ | $22 | 0x139f71… |
| 06-10 22:20:09 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 66 | 84¢ | $55 | 0x139f71… |
| 06-10 22:20:09 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | Yes | BUY | 32 | 16¢ | $5 | 0x139f71… |
| 06-10 22:17:34 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 4 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x81392f… |
| 06-10 22:17:34 | Utilized-Principle 0x3d12…4b82 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x81392f… |
| 06-10 22:17:13 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 16 | 85¢ | $14 | 0xde15a0… |
| 06-10 22:17:13 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 16 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xde15a0… |
| 06-10 22:16:48 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 16 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xdb5483… |
| 06-10 22:16:48 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 15¢ | $4 | 0xdb5483… |
| 06-10 22:16:48 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | BUY | 17 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xdb5483… |
| 06-10 22:16:48 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 15¢ | $2 | 0xdb5483… |
| 06-10 22:16:48 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | SELL | 108 | 15¢ | $16 | 0xdb5483… |
| 06-10 22:16:48 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 15¢ | $5 | 0xdb5483… |
| 06-10 22:16:48 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 2 | 14¢ | $0 | 0xdb5483… |
| 06-10 22:13:30 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | SELL | 62 | 15¢ | $9 | 0x186fe2… |
| 06-10 22:13:30 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 7 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x186fe2… |
| 06-10 22:13:30 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | SELL | 12 | 85¢ | $10 | 0x186fe2… |
| 06-10 22:13:30 | Babyish-Starboard 0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x186fe2… |
| 06-10 22:13:30 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x186fe2… |
| 06-10 21:17:54 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 100 | 80¢ | $80 | 0xc8fed5… |
| 06-10 21:17:54 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | No | BUY | 26 | 80¢ | $21 | 0xc8fed5… |
| 06-10 21:17:54 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 10 | 75¢ | $7 | 0xc8fed5… |
| 06-10 21:17:54 | Unfit-Champagne 0xd7ca…ebd1 | Yes | BUY | 148 | 20¢ | $30 | 0xc8fed5… |
| 06-10 21:17:54 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | BUY | 12 | 80¢ | $10 | 0xc8fed5… |
| 06-10 20:24:45 | (anonymous) 0x1443…8ae1 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 14¢ | $2 | 0x9afbba… |
| 06-10 20:24:45 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 2 | 86¢ | $2 | 0x9afbba… |
| 06-10 20:24:45 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 12 | 86¢ | $11 | 0x9afbba… |
| 06-10 19:53:24 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 8 | 86¢ | $7 | 0x1f5ad7… |
| 06-10 19:53:24 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | No | BUY | 28 | 86¢ | $24 | 0x1f5ad7… |
| 06-10 19:53:24 | (anonymous) 0x9fc3…1f1f | Yes | BUY | 36 | 14¢ | $5 | 0x1f5ad7… |
| 06-10 18:33:45 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | Yes | SELL | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x70f7bc… |
| 06-10 18:33:45 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x70f7bc… |
| 06-10 18:33:45 | Bubbly-Mug 0x3030…86ae | Yes | BUY | 81 | 7¢ | $6 | 0x70f7bc… |
| 06-10 18:33:45 | Babyish-Starboard 0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | SELL | 28 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x70f7bc… |
| 06-10 18:18:16 | Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | Yes | SELL | 14 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x44b443… |
| 06-10 18:18:16 | Neat-Derivation 0xed3c…8ae5 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x44b443… |
| 06-10 16:26:57 | Flawed-Imagination 0x3ad0…1153 | Yes | BUY | 67 | 10¢ | $7 | 0x23353c… |
| 06-10 16:26:57 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x23353c… |
| 06-10 16:26:57 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 8 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x23353c… |
| 06-10 16:26:57 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 32 | 10¢ | $3 | 0x23353c… |
| 06-10 16:26:57 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x23353c… |
| 06-10 16:10:51 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xda12de… |
| 06-10 16:10:51 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | BUY | 8 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xda12de… |
| 06-10 16:10:51 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | SELL | 190 | 7¢ | $13 | 0xda12de… |
| 06-10 16:10:51 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xda12de… |
| 06-10 16:10:51 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xda12de… |
| 06-10 16:10:51 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | SELL | 30 | 93¢ | $28 | 0xda12de… |
| 06-10 16:10:51 | Babyish-Starboard 0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xda12de… |