Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
open
Total volume
$40,982
$265 in 24h
Trades
533
Unique wallets
163
Liquidity
$15,053
Latest YES mid
10¢
Latest NO mid
90¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-01
last 08-16 12:08
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 15 | $79 | $5.0K | $4.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 20 | $77 | $3.7K | $3.7K |
| 🐟 Fish | 24 | $631 | $1.2K | $536 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 104 | $1.4K | $11.8K | $10.4K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 12 | $39 | $171 | $132 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 10 | $47 | $2.0K | $2.0K |
| Median | 13 | $160 | $154 | +$6 |
| Below median | 17 | $73 | $685 | $611 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $15 | $1.1K | $1.1K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $31 | — | +$31 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 7 | $25 | $3.8K | $3.8K |
| unranked | 97 | $1.8K | $13.8K | $12.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamboyant-Boogeyman 0x70ca…2443 | Yes | +5,001 | $515 | $515 | 11 | 07-19 08:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x2c4c…cb39 | No | +2,491 | $2,274 | $2,274 | 1 | 07-19 08:26 |
| Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | +2,130 | $1,893 | $1,914 | 56 | 08-09 02:21 |
| Bitter-Cartoon 0xa0bc…d428 | No | +1,300 | $1,184 | $1,184 | 3 | 08-09 02:21 |
| Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | +910 | $823 | $1,213 | 5 | 08-16 12:08 |
| Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | +849 | $791 | $791 | 6 | 08-04 22:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x1d1f…6f8d | Yes | +432 | $48 | $48 | 2 | 07-02 12:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xa98f…6a3f | No | +403 | $375 | $375 | 1 | 07-16 15:36 |
| Unruly-Button 0x7750…324d | Yes | +357 | $24 | $33 | 2 | 07-26 04:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x194c…1315 | Yes | +245 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 07-24 04:15 |
| Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | +222 | $16 | $30 | 8 | 08-05 19:41 |
| Vibrant-Motorcycle 0x45fb…f1f6 | Yes | +178 | $17 | $17 | 6 | 06-28 08:22 |
| Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | +176 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 08-09 02:48 |
| Reliable-Airman 0xb04a…acfc | No | +150 | $138 | $138 | 1 | 07-28 12:21 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | +149 | $134 | $134 | 3 | 08-16 12:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x275d…4589 | Yes | +130 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Shameful-Cooperation 0x4542…2637 | Yes | +104 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-23 07:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x0059…1626 | Yes | +100 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-15 23:57 |
| Dapper-Fortnight 0xbd73…ffee | Yes | +100 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-24 18:01 |
| Ancient-Autoimmunity 0xf102…1348 | Yes | +100 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-22 09:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x2f89…f5c5 | Yes | +96 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-10 14:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x5f7b…ea70 | Yes | +91 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-11 15:15 |
| Parallel-Grit 0x9d38…973d | Yes | +91 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-27 09:12 |
| Flawed-Imagination 0x3ad0…1153 | Yes | +67 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-10 16:26 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +60 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 06-11 00:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x3761…a786 | No | +60 | $57 | $57 | 1 | 08-16 12:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x3b58…2cc8 | Yes | +52 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-01 18:51 |
| Worst-Meringue 0x4a1f…1a9f | Yes | +49 | $2 | $6 | 9 | 08-16 12:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x5547…3d0c | Yes | +46 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-25 13:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x07bb…b1db | Yes | +46 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-27 04:05 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +37 | $2 | $14 | 10 | 06-14 22:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | +34 | $3 | $3 | 4 | 07-23 08:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | +34 | $30 | $30 | 4 | 07-23 17:16 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | Yes | +28 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-10 15:35 |
| Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | No | +28 | $23 | $67 | 3 | 06-10 22:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xc09f…d222 | No | +22 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-30 14:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x81f4…a1cd | Yes | +21 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-17 16:12 |
| Sophisticated-Exit 0x03a2…dc06 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-17 03:23 |
| Internal-Hail 0x2884…d0c3 | Yes | +18 | $0 | $13 | 4 | 07-02 12:08 |
| Klutzy-Commitment 0x2998…b425 | No | +18 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-28 17:01 |
| Infamous-Edger 0x7181…a168 | Yes | +16 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-07 16:02 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | +15 | $2 | $13 | 6 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Neat-Derivation 0xed3c…8ae5 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 18:18 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 08-04 20:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x67dc…8b11 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-10 12:16 |
| Jealous-Rainy 0xf740…2570 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-23 08:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xb46c…c34d | No | +7 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 07-11 15:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x2f38…d6a8 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-07 05:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xb06c…b574 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-09 02:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x4dd4…a11a | No | +4 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-11 05:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x5ee5…a863 | No | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 01:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x5e89…c3e0 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 09:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x35b4…0f5b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 02:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x81f8…3477 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 10:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-16 12:08:42 | Worst-Meringue 0x4a1f…1a9f | Yes | BUY | 46 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xf16b35… |
| 08-16 12:08:42 | (anonymous) 0x67ae…78f7 | Yes | SELL | 141 | 5¢ | $7 | 0xf16b35… |
| 08-16 12:08:42 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | SELL | 90 | 95¢ | $86 | 0xf16b35… |
| 08-16 12:08:42 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xf16b35… |
| 08-16 12:07:54 | (anonymous) 0x67ae…78f7 | Yes | BUY | 141 | 6¢ | $9 | 0xf0c0a4… |
| 08-16 12:07:54 | Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | BUY | 70 | 93¢ | $65 | 0xf0c0a4… |
| 08-16 12:07:54 | Worst-Meringue 0x4a1f…1a9f | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xf0c0a4… |
| 08-16 12:07:54 | (anonymous) 0x3761…a786 | No | BUY | 60 | 94¢ | $57 | 0xf0c0a4… |
| 08-13 04:21:13 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 4 | 93¢ | $4 | 0x6ec05c… |
| 08-13 04:21:13 | Memorable-Ethics 0xb0c3…0b92 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x6ec05c… |
| 08-13 04:21:13 | Worst-Meringue 0x4a1f…1a9f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x6ec05c… |
| 08-12 06:12:46 | (anonymous) 0x222d…1fce | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xdd0469… |
| 08-12 06:12:46 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xdd0469… |
| 08-09 05:25:21 | Worst-Meringue 0x4a1f…1a9f | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xd1963c… |
| 08-09 05:25:21 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xd1963c… |
| 08-09 02:48:25 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | SELL | 9 | 95¢ | $9 | 0xec3c25… |
| 08-09 02:48:25 | Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | BUY | 166 | 5¢ | $8 | 0xec3c25… |
| 08-09 02:48:25 | Unlined-Latte 0x8fa0…72d6 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 5¢ | $9 | 0xec3c25… |
| 08-09 02:48:25 | Worst-Meringue 0x4a1f…1a9f | Yes | BUY | 17 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xec3c25… |
| 08-09 02:21:33 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xd52e9c… |
| 08-09 02:21:33 | (anonymous) 0xb06c…b574 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xd52e9c… |
| 08-09 02:21:31 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 100 | 93¢ | $93 | 0x3d9de4… |
| 08-09 02:21:31 | Bitter-Cartoon 0xa0bc…d428 | No | BUY | 49 | 93¢ | $45 | 0x3d9de4… |
| 08-09 02:21:31 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 11 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x3d9de4… |
| 08-09 02:21:31 | Unlined-Latte 0x8fa0…72d6 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 7¢ | $15 | 0x3d9de4… |
| 08-07 16:02:57 | Worst-Meringue 0x4a1f…1a9f | Yes | SELL | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x0c5f87… |
| 08-07 16:02:57 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0x0c5f87… |
| 08-07 16:02:57 | Infamous-Edger 0x7181…a168 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x0c5f87… |
| 08-07 15:17:54 | Ordinary-Dress 0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | BUY | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x0a8554… |
| 08-07 15:17:54 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x0a8554… |
| 08-07 13:53:43 | (anonymous) 0xc287…6c73 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x50c0d7… |
| 08-07 13:53:43 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 11 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x50c0d7… |
| 08-07 13:53:43 | Worst-Meringue 0x4a1f…1a9f | Yes | BUY | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x50c0d7… |
| 08-07 05:56:58 | (anonymous) 0x2f38…d6a8 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xf309d6… |
| 08-07 05:56:58 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xf309d6… |
| 08-05 19:41:14 | Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | SELL | 16 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x36622d… |
| 08-05 19:41:14 | Colorless-Weedkiller 0x46a5…bd6b | No | SELL | 16 | 92¢ | $15 | 0x36622d… |
| 08-04 22:36:30 | Adventurous-Traveler 0x7f13…f06a | Yes | BUY | 13 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x8a71d1… |
| 08-04 22:36:30 | Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | BUY | 13 | 92¢ | $12 | 0x8a71d1… |
| 08-04 20:53:44 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x0948c1… |
| 08-04 20:53:44 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0x0948c1… |
| 08-03 17:52:39 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xc43cd0… |
| 08-03 17:52:39 | Failing-Manhunt 0x8199…bb6d | No | SELL | 47 | 94¢ | $44 | 0xc43cd0… |
| 08-03 17:52:39 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xc43cd0… |
| 08-03 17:52:39 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xc43cd0… |
| 08-03 17:52:39 | (anonymous) 0x6c8b…645c | Yes | SELL | 65 | 5¢ | $4 | 0xc43cd0… |
| 08-03 17:52:15 | Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | BUY | 65 | 92¢ | $60 | 0x863bfa… |
| 08-03 17:52:15 | (anonymous) 0x6c8b…645c | Yes | BUY | 65 | 8¢ | $5 | 0x863bfa… |
| 08-03 17:29:57 | (anonymous) 0x6c8b…645c | Yes | SELL | 66 | 6¢ | $4 | 0xd8bae4… |
| 08-03 17:29:57 | Failing-Manhunt 0x8199…bb6d | No | SELL | 51 | 94¢ | $48 | 0xd8bae4… |
| 08-03 17:29:57 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | SELL | 15 | 94¢ | $14 | 0xd8bae4… |
| 08-03 17:29:27 | Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | BUY | 21 | 92¢ | $19 | 0x34a3aa… |
| 08-03 17:29:27 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x34a3aa… |
| 08-03 17:29:27 | (anonymous) 0x6c8b…645c | Yes | BUY | 66 | 8¢ | $5 | 0x34a3aa… |
| 08-03 17:29:27 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | BUY | 15 | 92¢ | $14 | 0x34a3aa… |
| 07-30 20:54:00 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x5cdb1b… |
| 07-30 20:54:00 | Crafty-Mecca 0xac43…d08a | Yes | SELL | 38 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x5cdb1b… |
| 07-30 20:54:00 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x5cdb1b… |
| 07-30 20:54:00 | Failing-Manhunt 0x8199…bb6d | No | SELL | 3 | 94¢ | $3 | 0x5cdb1b… |
| 07-30 14:19:15 | Bitter-Cartoon 0xa0bc…d428 | No | BUY | 5 | 92¢ | $5 | 0x9995fa… |
| 07-30 14:19:15 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x9995fa… |
| 07-28 12:21:08 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | SELL | 50 | 92¢ | $46 | 0xd1e64b… |
| 07-28 12:21:08 | Reliable-Airman 0xb04a…acfc | No | BUY | 150 | 92¢ | $138 | 0xd1e64b… |
| 07-28 12:21:08 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | SELL | 100 | 92¢ | $92 | 0xd1e64b… |
| 07-28 12:20:41 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 1,246 | 91¢ | $1,134 | 0x417ce9… |
| 07-28 12:20:41 | Bitter-Cartoon 0xa0bc…d428 | No | BUY | 1,246 | 91¢ | $1,134 | 0x417ce9… |
| 07-27 10:04:16 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | BUY | 1,000 | 91¢ | $910 | 0x83bfac… |
| 07-27 10:04:16 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x83bfac… |
| 07-27 10:04:16 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 91¢ | $27 | 0x83bfac… |
| 07-27 10:04:16 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 765 | 91¢ | $696 | 0x83bfac… |
| 07-27 10:04:16 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | SELL | 200 | 91¢ | $182 | 0x83bfac… |
| 07-27 00:29:39 | (anonymous) 0x4656…41d7 | No | SELL | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0x3fab1e… |
| 07-27 00:29:39 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0x3fab1e… |
| 07-26 04:55:04 | Unruly-Button 0x7750…324d | Yes | SELL | 43 | 11¢ | $5 | 0x46235d… |
| 07-26 04:55:04 | Neighboring-Xylophone 0x0da8…54af | No | SELL | 43 | 89¢ | $38 | 0x46235d… |
| 07-24 06:06:06 | Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | SELL | 42 | 11¢ | $5 | 0x514fc6… |
| 07-24 06:06:06 | (anonymous) 0xca41…0f02 | No | SELL | 42 | 89¢ | $37 | 0x514fc6… |
| 07-24 04:15:21 | (anonymous) 0x194c…1315 | Yes | BUY | 245 | 11¢ | $26 | 0x985156… |
| 07-24 04:15:21 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0x985156… |
| 07-24 04:15:21 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 20 | 89¢ | $18 | 0x985156… |
| 07-24 04:15:21 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 200 | 90¢ | $179 | 0x985156… |
| 07-24 02:50:33 | (anonymous) 0xca41…0f02 | No | SELL | 223 | 92¢ | $204 | 0x202b00… |
| 07-24 02:50:33 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | SELL | 223 | 8¢ | $19 | 0x202b00… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 91¢ | $27 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | BUY | 223 | 9¢ | $21 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | BUY | 100 | 90¢ | $90 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | (anonymous) 0x4656…41d7 | No | BUY | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | BUY | 50 | 91¢ | $45 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 01:50:13 | (anonymous) 0xaa35…214a | No | SELL | 2 | 91¢ | $2 | 0x1faf17… |
| 07-24 01:50:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 2 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x1faf17… |
| 07-24 01:49:01 | (anonymous) 0xca41…0f02 | No | SELL | 210 | 92¢ | $193 | 0xf5fc47… |
| 07-24 01:49:01 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | SELL | 210 | 8¢ | $17 | 0xf5fc47… |
| 07-24 01:49:01 | (anonymous) 0x8a00…e2c4 | No | SELL | 438 | 92¢ | $403 | 0x13992f… |
| 07-24 01:49:01 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | SELL | 438 | 8¢ | $35 | 0x13992f… |
| 07-24 01:49:00 | Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | BUY | 258 | 8¢ | $20 | 0xe07df7… |
| 07-24 01:49:00 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | SELL | 258 | 8¢ | $20 | 0xe07df7… |
| 07-24 01:48:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 9 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x05581e… |
| 07-24 01:48:58 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | SELL | 9 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x05581e… |
| 07-24 01:45:55 | (anonymous) 0xaa35…214a | No | SELL | 463 | 92¢ | $426 | 0xee6c8a… |