Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
open
Total volume
$3,311
$265 in 24h
Trades
250
Unique wallets
80
Liquidity
$15,053
Latest YES mid
8¢
Latest NO mid
92¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-01
last 07-05 06:09
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $21 | $129 | $108 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 15 | $65 | $1.8K | $1.7K |
| 🐟 Fish | 14 | $276 | $153 | +$123 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 43 | $222 | $127 | +$94 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 10 | $30 | $112 | $82 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $32 | $65 | $33 |
| Median | 7 | $27 | $19 | +$8 |
| Below median | 7 | $16 | $175 | $160 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $13 | $461 | $448 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $25 | $103 | $78 |
| unranked | 41 | $440 | $1.2K | $789 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamboyant-Boogeyman 0x70ca…2443 | Yes | +1,951 | $243 | $243 | 7 | 06-30 14:51 |
| Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | +1,095 | $957 | $979 | 33 | 07-02 12:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x1d1f…6f8d | Yes | +432 | $48 | $48 | 2 | 07-02 12:16 |
| Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | +282 | $228 | $693 | 15 | 06-28 17:27 |
| Failing-Manhunt 0x8199…bb6d | No | +200 | $175 | $175 | 2 | 06-28 17:16 |
| Vibrant-Motorcycle 0x45fb…f1f6 | Yes | +178 | $17 | $17 | 6 | 06-28 08:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x275d…4589 | Yes | +130 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | +105 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-02 21:41 |
| Dapper-Fortnight 0xbd73…ffee | Yes | +100 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-24 18:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x2f89…f5c5 | Yes | +96 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-10 14:27 |
| Parallel-Grit 0x9d38…973d | Yes | +91 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-27 09:12 |
| Flawed-Imagination 0x3ad0…1153 | Yes | +67 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-10 16:26 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +60 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 06-11 00:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x3b58…2cc8 | Yes | +52 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-01 18:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x5547…3d0c | Yes | +46 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-25 13:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x07bb…b1db | Yes | +46 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-27 04:05 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | +38 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Crafty-Mecca 0xac43…d08a | Yes | +38 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-29 19:04 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +37 | $2 | $14 | 10 | 06-14 22:32 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $2 | $4 | 4 | 07-05 06:09 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | Yes | +28 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-10 15:35 |
| Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | No | +28 | $23 | $67 | 3 | 06-10 22:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | +24 | $3 | $3 | 3 | 06-11 00:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | +24 | $21 | $21 | 3 | 06-11 02:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xc09f…d222 | No | +22 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-30 14:51 |
| Internal-Hail 0x2884…d0c3 | Yes | +18 | $0 | $13 | 4 | 07-02 12:08 |
| Klutzy-Commitment 0x2998…b425 | No | +18 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-28 17:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xc287…6c73 | Yes | +17 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-24 13:10 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | +15 | $2 | $13 | 6 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Neat-Derivation 0xed3c…8ae5 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 18:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x1443…8ae1 | Yes | +14 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 20:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x07e7…06bd | Yes | +14 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 01:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x67dc…8b11 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-10 12:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xf523…ec90 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 13:15 |
| Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-28 17:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x7253…e306 | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 15:14 |
| Low-Poverty 0x36bf…7d9e | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 15:21 |
| Generous-Misreading 0x7bed…7ad5 | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-25 13:00 |
| Annual-Exercise 0xcf0f…d8b6 | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-25 19:26 |
| Flawless-Bungalow 0x7f70…ae05 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-11 04:14 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-11 04:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-23 22:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-23 22:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $13 | 15 | 06-11 02:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x4dd4…a11a | No | +4 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-11 05:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x5ee5…a863 | No | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 01:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x5e89…c3e0 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 09:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x35b4…0f5b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 02:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x222d…1fce | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-20 21:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xacba…07d8 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-03 16:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x81f8…3477 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 10:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 06:09:10 | (anonymous) 0x9fc3…1f1f | Yes | SELL | 36 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x2adac3… |
| 07-05 06:09:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x2adac3… |
| 07-05 06:09:10 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x2adac3… |
| 07-05 01:16:08 | Internal-Hail 0x2884…d0c3 | No | SELL | 6 | 90¢ | $5 | 0x3688c0… |
| 07-05 01:16:08 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x3688c0… |
| 07-03 16:35:37 | (anonymous) 0xacba…07d8 | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xde549b… |
| 07-03 16:35:37 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | Yes | BUY | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xde549b… |
| 07-02 12:16:37 | (anonymous) 0x1d1f…6f8d | Yes | BUY | 182 | 10¢ | $18 | 0xe05772… |
| 07-02 12:16:37 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xe05772… |
| 07-02 12:16:37 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xe05772… |
| 07-02 12:08:44 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 34 | 92¢ | $31 | 0xf546b2… |
| 07-02 12:08:44 | Internal-Hail 0x2884…d0c3 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xf546b2… |
| 07-02 12:08:44 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xf546b2… |
| 07-01 18:51:29 | (anonymous) 0x3b58…2cc8 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 10¢ | $5 | 0x37ccb3… |
| 07-01 18:51:29 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x37ccb3… |
| 07-01 18:51:29 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 12 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x37ccb3… |
| 07-01 18:51:29 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 14 | 90¢ | $13 | 0x37ccb3… |
| 07-01 06:49:28 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xe4157c… |
| 07-01 06:49:28 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0xe4157c… |
| 07-01 06:49:28 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xff4d10… |
| 07-01 06:49:28 | Internal-Hail 0x2884…d0c3 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xff4d10… |
| 07-01 06:47:13 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $5 | 0x813abe… |
| 07-01 06:47:13 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | SELL | 5 | 90¢ | $5 | 0x813abe… |
| 06-30 14:51:25 | Flamboyant-Boogeyman 0x70ca…2443 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x0f3355… |
| 06-30 14:51:25 | (anonymous) 0xc09f…d222 | No | BUY | 22 | 89¢ | $20 | 0x0f3355… |
| 06-30 10:13:14 | (anonymous) 0xf2e8…e187 | Yes | SELL | 91 | 11¢ | $10 | 0x420211… |
| 06-30 10:13:14 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | SELL | 29 | 89¢ | $26 | 0x420211… |
| 06-30 10:13:14 | Flamboyant-Boogeyman 0x70ca…2443 | Yes | BUY | 62 | 11¢ | $7 | 0x420211… |
| 06-29 20:44:44 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 100 | 87¢ | $87 | 0xf73db4… |
| 06-29 20:44:44 | Insignificant-Forelimb 0x2e1f…8fde | No | SELL | 100 | 87¢ | $87 | 0xf73db4… |
| 06-29 19:04:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xed1e00… |
| 06-29 19:04:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 7 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xed1e00… |
| 06-29 19:04:13 | Crafty-Mecca 0xac43…d08a | Yes | BUY | 38 | 13¢ | $5 | 0xed1e00… |
| 06-29 19:04:13 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xed1e00… |
| 06-29 02:54:37 | (anonymous) 0x35b4…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0xfce761… |
| 06-29 02:54:37 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 11¢ | $0 | 0xfce761… |
| 06-28 21:55:22 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 6 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xe6ca30… |
| 06-28 21:55:22 | Gruesome-Bog 0x8d88…92e1 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xe6ca30… |
| 06-28 18:19:40 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 11¢ | $5 | 0xda88b8… |
| 06-28 18:19:40 | Bubbly-Mug 0x3030…86ae | Yes | SELL | 81 | 11¢ | $9 | 0xda88b8… |
| 06-28 18:19:40 | Flamboyant-Boogeyman 0x70ca…2443 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 11¢ | $4 | 0xda88b8… |
| 06-28 18:00:25 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | SELL | 75 | 11¢ | $9 | 0xa2b88d… |
| 06-28 18:00:25 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 56 | 89¢ | $50 | 0xa2b88d… |
| 06-28 18:00:25 | Flamboyant-Boogeyman 0x70ca…2443 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xa2b88d… |
| 06-28 18:00:25 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | SELL | 10 | 88¢ | $9 | 0xa2b88d… |
| 06-28 17:28:58 | Internal-Hail 0x2884…d0c3 | No | BUY | 6 | 89¢ | $5 | 0xe14e07… |
| 06-28 17:28:58 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 6 | 89¢ | $5 | 0xe14e07… |
| 06-28 17:27:04 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x9b1306… |
| 06-28 17:27:04 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x9b1306… |
| 06-28 17:26:50 | Internal-Hail 0x2884…d0c3 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 14¢ | $6 | 0xc990c3… |
| 06-28 17:26:50 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 14¢ | $3 | 0xc990c3… |
| 06-28 17:26:50 | Grim-Fishnet 0x2be6…e054 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 14¢ | $3 | 0xc990c3… |
| 06-28 17:19:22 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 189 | 85¢ | $161 | 0x23df3e… |
| 06-28 17:19:22 | Flamboyant-Boogeyman 0x70ca…2443 | Yes | BUY | 189 | 15¢ | $28 | 0x23df3e… |
| 06-28 17:16:22 | Insignificant-Forelimb 0x2e1f…8fde | No | BUY | 100 | 86¢ | $86 | 0xc149bb… |
| 06-28 17:16:22 | Failing-Manhunt 0x8199…bb6d | No | BUY | 152 | 88¢ | $133 | 0xc149bb… |
| 06-28 17:16:22 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 100 | 86¢ | $86 | 0xc149bb… |
| 06-28 17:16:22 | Blaring-Whip 0x95c7…27e8 | Yes | SELL | 174 | 14¢ | $25 | 0xc149bb… |
| 06-28 17:16:22 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 5 | 87¢ | $4 | 0xc149bb… |
| 06-28 17:16:22 | Flamboyant-Boogeyman 0x70ca…2443 | Yes | BUY | 811 | 14¢ | $111 | 0xc149bb… |
| 06-28 17:16:22 | Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xc149bb… |
| 06-28 17:16:22 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 80 | 86¢ | $69 | 0xc149bb… |
| 06-28 17:01:40 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0x21d6d0… |
| 06-28 17:01:40 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 11¢ | $3 | 0x21d6d0… |
| 06-28 17:01:40 | Klutzy-Commitment 0x2998…b425 | No | BUY | 18 | 89¢ | $16 | 0x21d6d0… |
| 06-28 17:01:40 | Flamboyant-Boogeyman 0x70ca…2443 | Yes | BUY | 825 | 11¢ | $91 | 0x21d6d0… |
| 06-28 17:01:40 | Advanced-Creativity 0x4f32…7b50 | Yes | SELL | 777 | 11¢ | $85 | 0x21d6d0… |
| 06-28 08:22:41 | (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | SELL | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0x2d4649… |
| 06-28 08:22:41 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | SELL | 5 | 90¢ | $5 | 0x2d4649… |
| 06-28 08:22:41 | (anonymous) 0xb20b…d46e | Yes | SELL | 178 | 9¢ | $17 | 0x2d4649… |
| 06-28 08:22:41 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x2d4649… |
| 06-28 08:22:41 | Vibrant-Motorcycle 0x45fb…f1f6 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x2d4649… |
| 06-28 04:17:07 | Advanced-Creativity 0x4f32…7b50 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xa7349d… |
| 06-28 04:17:07 | Gruesome-Bog 0x8d88…92e1 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xa7349d… |
| 06-27 09:12:08 | Parallel-Grit 0x9d38…973d | Yes | BUY | 91 | 11¢ | $10 | 0x65dcd2… |
| 06-27 09:12:08 | Advanced-Creativity 0x4f32…7b50 | Yes | SELL | 91 | 11¢ | $10 | 0x65dcd2… |
| 06-27 04:05:29 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0xd9793d… |
| 06-27 04:05:29 | (anonymous) 0x07bb…b1db | Yes | BUY | 46 | 11¢ | $5 | 0xd9793d… |
| 06-27 04:05:29 | Advanced-Creativity 0x4f32…7b50 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 11¢ | $4 | 0xd9793d… |
| 06-26 14:46:58 | Vibrant-Motorcycle 0x45fb…f1f6 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 11¢ | $6 | 0x28add2… |
| 06-26 14:46:58 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 51 | 89¢ | $45 | 0x28add2… |
| 06-26 07:41:37 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 49 | 89¢ | $44 | 0xeb5c7a… |
| 06-26 07:41:37 | Internal-Hail 0x2884…d0c3 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 11¢ | $6 | 0xeb5c7a… |
| 06-26 07:41:37 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 11¢ | $0 | 0xeb5c7a… |
| 06-26 04:06:50 | (anonymous) 0xb20b…d46e | Yes | BUY | 178 | 11¢ | $19 | 0xc0d39c… |
| 06-26 04:06:50 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 59 | 11¢ | $6 | 0xc0d39c… |
| 06-26 04:06:50 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 100 | 89¢ | $89 | 0xc0d39c… |
| 06-26 04:06:50 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xc0d39c… |
| 06-25 19:26:31 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x446c13… |
| 06-25 19:26:31 | Annual-Exercise 0xcf0f…d8b6 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x446c13… |
| 06-25 13:41:52 | (anonymous) 0xf2e8…e187 | Yes | BUY | 91 | 11¢ | $10 | 0x49b772… |
| 06-25 13:41:52 | Advanced-Creativity 0x4f32…7b50 | Yes | SELL | 91 | 11¢ | $10 | 0x49b772… |
| 06-25 13:35:13 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 41 | 89¢ | $36 | 0x41c911… |
| 06-25 13:35:13 | (anonymous) 0x5547…3d0c | Yes | BUY | 46 | 11¢ | $5 | 0x41c911… |
| 06-25 13:35:13 | Advanced-Creativity 0x4f32…7b50 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x41c911… |
| 06-25 13:00:55 | Generous-Misreading 0x7bed…7ad5 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x38946e… |
| 06-25 13:00:55 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 9 | 89¢ | $8 | 0x38946e… |
| 06-24 18:01:41 | Advanced-Creativity 0x4f32…7b50 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 11¢ | $11 | 0xea4d29… |
| 06-24 18:01:41 | Dapper-Fortnight 0xbd73…ffee | Yes | BUY | 100 | 11¢ | $11 | 0xea4d29… |
| 06-24 13:10:08 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x9f1bf0… |