Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
open
Total volume
$37,717
$265 in 24h
Trades
467
Unique wallets
147
Liquidity
$15,053
Latest YES mid
10¢
Latest NO mid
90¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-01
last 07-27 10:04
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 13 | $70 | $3.7K | $3.6K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 17 | $59 | $3.4K | $3.4K |
| 🐟 Fish | 19 | $553 | $155 | +$398 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 98 | $1.5K | $12.8K | $11.3K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 11 | $31 | $166 | $135 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 10 | $49 | $2.0K | $2.0K |
| Median | 12 | $160 | $97 | +$62 |
| Below median | 13 | $56 | $685 | $629 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $15 | $1.1K | $1.1K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $23 | — | +$23 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $25 | $2.4K | $2.4K |
| unranked | 90 | $1.8K | $13.6K | $11.7K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamboyant-Boogeyman 0x70ca…2443 | Yes | +5,001 | $515 | $515 | 11 | 07-19 08:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x2c4c…cb39 | No | +2,491 | $2,274 | $2,274 | 1 | 07-19 08:26 |
| Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | +1,990 | $1,763 | $1,785 | 53 | 07-27 00:29 |
| Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | +1,000 | $909 | $1,127 | 4 | 07-27 10:04 |
| Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress 0x07e1…27af | No | +751 | $700 | $700 | 3 | 07-18 14:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x1d1f…6f8d | Yes | +432 | $48 | $48 | 2 | 07-02 12:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xa98f…6a3f | No | +403 | $375 | $375 | 1 | 07-16 15:36 |
| Unruly-Button 0x7750…324d | Yes | +357 | $24 | $33 | 2 | 07-26 04:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x194c…1315 | Yes | +245 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 07-24 04:15 |
| Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | +238 | $17 | $29 | 7 | 07-24 06:06 |
| Vibrant-Motorcycle 0x45fb…f1f6 | Yes | +178 | $17 | $17 | 6 | 06-28 08:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x275d…4589 | Yes | +130 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Shameful-Cooperation 0x4542…2637 | Yes | +104 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-23 07:41 |
| Failing-Manhunt 0x8199…bb6d | No | +100 | $82 | $268 | 3 | 07-16 15:36 |
| Dapper-Fortnight 0xbd73…ffee | Yes | +100 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-24 18:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x0059…1626 | Yes | +100 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-15 23:57 |
| Ancient-Autoimmunity 0xf102…1348 | Yes | +100 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-22 09:22 |
| Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | +100 | $90 | $90 | 1 | 07-24 02:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x2f89…f5c5 | Yes | +96 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-10 14:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x5f7b…ea70 | Yes | +91 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-11 15:15 |
| Parallel-Grit 0x9d38…973d | Yes | +91 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-27 09:12 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | +79 | $69 | $69 | 2 | 07-23 07:41 |
| Flawed-Imagination 0x3ad0…1153 | Yes | +67 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-10 16:26 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +60 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 06-11 00:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x3b58…2cc8 | Yes | +52 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-01 18:51 |
| Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | +50 | $45 | $45 | 1 | 07-24 02:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x5547…3d0c | Yes | +46 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-25 13:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x07bb…b1db | Yes | +46 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-27 04:05 |
| Crafty-Mecca 0xac43…d08a | Yes | +38 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-29 19:04 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +37 | $2 | $14 | 10 | 06-14 22:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | +34 | $3 | $3 | 4 | 07-23 08:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | +34 | $30 | $30 | 4 | 07-23 17:16 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | Yes | +28 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-10 15:35 |
| Unkempt-Tuxedo 0xbfd3…98ef | No | +28 | $23 | $67 | 3 | 06-10 22:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xc09f…d222 | No | +22 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-30 14:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x81f4…a1cd | Yes | +21 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-17 16:12 |
| Sophisticated-Exit 0x03a2…dc06 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-17 03:23 |
| Internal-Hail 0x2884…d0c3 | Yes | +18 | $0 | $13 | 4 | 07-02 12:08 |
| Klutzy-Commitment 0x2998…b425 | No | +18 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-28 17:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xc287…6c73 | Yes | +17 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-24 13:10 |
| Colorless-Weedkiller 0x46a5…bd6b | No | +16 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 07-23 19:21 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | +15 | $2 | $13 | 6 | 06-11 02:19 |
| Neat-Derivation 0xed3c…8ae5 | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 18:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x1443…8ae1 | Yes | +14 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-10 20:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x67dc…8b11 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-10 12:16 |
| Jealous-Rainy 0xf740…2570 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-23 08:52 |
| Deserted-Legging 0xf114…6ecc | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-28 17:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xb46c…c34d | No | +7 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 07-11 15:15 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-11 04:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +5 | $4 | $13 | 3 | 07-16 15:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x4dd4…a11a | No | +4 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-11 05:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x5ee5…a863 | No | +3 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 01:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x5e89…c3e0 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-11 09:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x35b4…0f5b | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 02:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x222d…1fce | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-20 21:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x81f8…3477 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 10:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 10:04:16 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 91¢ | $27 | 0x83bfac… |
| 07-27 10:04:16 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | SELL | 200 | 91¢ | $182 | 0x83bfac… |
| 07-27 10:04:16 | Animated-Souvenir 0xda47…941c | No | SELL | 765 | 91¢ | $696 | 0x83bfac… |
| 07-27 10:04:16 | Gleaming-Orient 0x5eec…f4e2 | No | BUY | 1,000 | 91¢ | $910 | 0x83bfac… |
| 07-27 10:04:16 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x83bfac… |
| 07-27 00:29:39 | (anonymous) 0x4656…41d7 | No | SELL | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0x3fab1e… |
| 07-27 00:29:39 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0x3fab1e… |
| 07-26 04:55:04 | Unruly-Button 0x7750…324d | Yes | SELL | 43 | 11¢ | $5 | 0x46235d… |
| 07-26 04:55:04 | Neighboring-Xylophone 0x0da8…54af | No | SELL | 43 | 89¢ | $38 | 0x46235d… |
| 07-24 06:06:06 | (anonymous) 0xca41…0f02 | No | SELL | 42 | 89¢ | $37 | 0x514fc6… |
| 07-24 06:06:06 | Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | SELL | 42 | 11¢ | $5 | 0x514fc6… |
| 07-24 04:15:21 | Diligent-Scenario 0xdf27…e6e4 | No | BUY | 20 | 89¢ | $18 | 0x985156… |
| 07-24 04:15:21 | Motionless-Boxspring 0x97d3…3f3c | No | BUY | 200 | 90¢ | $179 | 0x985156… |
| 07-24 04:15:21 | (anonymous) 0x194c…1315 | Yes | BUY | 245 | 11¢ | $26 | 0x985156… |
| 07-24 04:15:21 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0x985156… |
| 07-24 02:50:33 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | SELL | 223 | 8¢ | $19 | 0x202b00… |
| 07-24 02:50:33 | (anonymous) 0xca41…0f02 | No | SELL | 223 | 92¢ | $204 | 0x202b00… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | (anonymous) 0x4656…41d7 | No | BUY | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | BUY | 50 | 91¢ | $45 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 91¢ | $27 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | BUY | 223 | 9¢ | $21 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 02:45:46 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | BUY | 100 | 90¢ | $90 | 0x7e9ea8… |
| 07-24 01:50:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 2 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x1faf17… |
| 07-24 01:50:13 | (anonymous) 0xaa35…214a | No | SELL | 2 | 91¢ | $2 | 0x1faf17… |
| 07-24 01:49:01 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | SELL | 438 | 8¢ | $35 | 0x13992f… |
| 07-24 01:49:01 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | SELL | 210 | 8¢ | $17 | 0xf5fc47… |
| 07-24 01:49:01 | (anonymous) 0xca41…0f02 | No | SELL | 210 | 92¢ | $193 | 0xf5fc47… |
| 07-24 01:49:01 | (anonymous) 0x8a00…e2c4 | No | SELL | 438 | 92¢ | $403 | 0x13992f… |
| 07-24 01:49:00 | Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | BUY | 258 | 8¢ | $20 | 0xe07df7… |
| 07-24 01:49:00 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | SELL | 258 | 8¢ | $20 | 0xe07df7… |
| 07-24 01:48:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 9 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x05581e… |
| 07-24 01:48:58 | (anonymous) 0x805b…ae7d | Yes | SELL | 9 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x05581e… |
| 07-24 01:45:55 | (anonymous) 0x9e6e…1334 | Yes | SELL | 463 | 8¢ | $37 | 0xee6c8a… |
| 07-24 01:45:55 | (anonymous) 0xaa35…214a | No | SELL | 463 | 92¢ | $426 | 0xee6c8a… |
| 07-24 01:45:52 | (anonymous) 0x9e6e…1334 | Yes | SELL | 450 | 8¢ | $36 | 0xe74212… |
| 07-24 01:45:52 | (anonymous) 0x8a07…f329 | No | SELL | 450 | 92¢ | $414 | 0xe74212… |
| 07-23 19:21:45 | Colorless-Weedkiller 0x46a5…bd6b | No | BUY | 16 | 93¢ | $15 | 0xb9dd44… |
| 07-23 19:21:45 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 16 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xb9dd44… |
| 07-23 17:16:04 | (anonymous) 0xe489…f577 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0xbbb907… |
| 07-23 17:16:04 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | BUY | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0xbbb907… |
| 07-23 17:16:04 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xbbb907… |
| 07-23 09:41:51 | (anonymous) 0x70d5…4bf2 | No | SELL | 595 | 90¢ | $538 | 0xe35f1e… |
| 07-23 09:41:51 | (anonymous) 0x725b…ee35 | Yes | SELL | 595 | 10¢ | $57 | 0xe35f1e… |
| 07-23 09:41:07 | Unique-Dentist 0xcf00…353f | Yes | BUY | 22 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xc4b5ce… |
| 07-23 09:41:07 | (anonymous) 0xa780…52d3 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xc4b5ce… |
| 07-23 09:40:43 | (anonymous) 0x6514…49fb | No | SELL | 611 | 91¢ | $556 | 0xc58bf2… |
| 07-23 09:40:43 | (anonymous) 0xa780…52d3 | Yes | SELL | 611 | 9¢ | $55 | 0xc58bf2… |
| 07-23 09:40:10 | (anonymous) 0xa780…52d3 | Yes | SELL | 367 | 9¢ | $35 | 0x661abb… |
| 07-23 09:40:10 | (anonymous) 0x71a3…67c7 | No | SELL | 367 | 90¢ | $332 | 0x661abb… |
| 07-23 09:39:16 | Neighboring-Xylophone 0x0da8…54af | No | BUY | 22 | 90¢ | $20 | 0xf1b979… |
| 07-23 09:39:16 | (anonymous) 0x71a3…67c7 | No | SELL | 22 | 90¢ | $20 | 0xf1b979… |
| 07-23 09:38:49 | (anonymous) 0x2468…814c | No | SELL | 405 | 90¢ | $367 | 0x22f0c6… |
| 07-23 09:38:49 | (anonymous) 0x725b…ee35 | Yes | SELL | 405 | 10¢ | $38 | 0x22f0c6… |
| 07-23 09:37:19 | (anonymous) 0x634d…8c38 | No | SELL | 508 | 91¢ | $462 | 0xf56900… |
| 07-23 09:37:19 | (anonymous) 0xe5b1…5e80 | Yes | SELL | 508 | 9¢ | $46 | 0xf56900… |
| 07-23 09:35:45 | (anonymous) 0xe5b1…5e80 | Yes | SELL | 492 | 10¢ | $47 | 0x1d9411… |
| 07-23 09:35:45 | (anonymous) 0xc0fe…18cf | No | SELL | 492 | 90¢ | $445 | 0x1d9411… |
| 07-23 09:35:06 | (anonymous) 0x6573…7571 | Yes | SELL | 444 | 10¢ | $42 | 0xce7e83… |
| 07-23 09:35:06 | (anonymous) 0x8b83…2d9b | No | SELL | 444 | 90¢ | $402 | 0xce7e83… |
| 07-23 09:34:49 | (anonymous) 0x6573…7571 | Yes | SELL | 556 | 10¢ | $53 | 0x9c2726… |
| 07-23 09:34:49 | (anonymous) 0xa6e8…56c1 | No | SELL | 556 | 90¢ | $503 | 0x9c2726… |
| 07-23 09:04:45 | (anonymous) 0x2469…51c9 | No | SELL | 530 | 90¢ | $477 | 0x2a2dd5… |
| 07-23 09:04:45 | (anonymous) 0x64f7…f1ee | No | SELL | 420 | 90¢ | $378 | 0x2a2dd5… |
| 07-23 09:04:45 | (anonymous) 0xbfb7…2714 | Yes | SELL | 950 | 10¢ | $95 | 0x2a2dd5… |
| 07-23 09:04:22 | (anonymous) 0xc9b6…d92a | No | SELL | 376 | 90¢ | $338 | 0x4a2d35… |
| 07-23 09:04:22 | (anonymous) 0xf7cf…54c0 | Yes | SELL | 950 | 10¢ | $95 | 0x4a2d35… |
| 07-23 09:04:22 | (anonymous) 0xf4e7…956e | No | SELL | 574 | 90¢ | $517 | 0x4a2d35… |
| 07-23 09:02:45 | (anonymous) 0x1b0f…6c35 | No | SELL | 563 | 90¢ | $507 | 0x48f903… |
| 07-23 09:02:45 | (anonymous) 0x422d…514b | No | SELL | 387 | 90¢ | $348 | 0x48f903… |
| 07-23 09:02:45 | (anonymous) 0x046b…b42a | Yes | SELL | 950 | 10¢ | $95 | 0x48f903… |
| 07-23 09:02:25 | (anonymous) 0x2904…219e | Yes | SELL | 950 | 10¢ | $95 | 0x420b8b… |
| 07-23 09:02:25 | (anonymous) 0x426a…2165 | No | SELL | 540 | 90¢ | $486 | 0x420b8b… |
| 07-23 09:02:25 | (anonymous) 0x2922…b3ce | No | SELL | 410 | 90¢ | $369 | 0x420b8b… |
| 07-23 09:01:00 | (anonymous) 0xa555…b9ac | No | SELL | 508 | 90¢ | $457 | 0x8a6a66… |
| 07-23 09:01:00 | (anonymous) 0x196b…7349 | Yes | SELL | 950 | 10¢ | $95 | 0x8a6a66… |
| 07-23 09:01:00 | (anonymous) 0x1ded…890a | No | SELL | 442 | 90¢ | $398 | 0x8a6a66… |
| 07-23 09:00:28 | (anonymous) 0x586f…8f8a | Yes | SELL | 950 | 10¢ | $95 | 0x4e80d8… |
| 07-23 09:00:28 | (anonymous) 0x806d…69a4 | No | SELL | 552 | 90¢ | $497 | 0x4e80d8… |
| 07-23 09:00:28 | (anonymous) 0x65a5…ba24 | No | SELL | 398 | 90¢ | $358 | 0x4e80d8… |
| 07-23 08:52:13 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | BUY | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xe5f080… |
| 07-23 08:52:13 | Jealous-Rainy 0xf740…2570 | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xe5f080… |
| 07-23 08:50:01 | (anonymous) 0x71a3…67c7 | No | BUY | 389 | 90¢ | $352 | 0xafd0e5… |
| 07-23 08:50:01 | (anonymous) 0x6573…7571 | Yes | BUY | 389 | 10¢ | $37 | 0xafd0e5… |
| 07-23 08:50:00 | (anonymous) 0x6573…7571 | Yes | BUY | 611 | 10¢ | $58 | 0x2a9aab… |
| 07-23 08:50:00 | (anonymous) 0x6514…49fb | No | BUY | 611 | 90¢ | $553 | 0x2a9aab… |
| 07-23 08:49:43 | (anonymous) 0x725b…ee35 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 11¢ | $3 | 0x6c69e3… |
| 07-23 08:49:43 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 19 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x6c69e3… |
| 07-23 08:49:19 | (anonymous) 0xc0fe…18cf | No | BUY | 492 | 91¢ | $448 | 0x3a2e99… |
| 07-23 08:49:19 | (anonymous) 0x725b…ee35 | Yes | BUY | 492 | 9¢ | $44 | 0x3a2e99… |
| 07-23 08:49:15 | (anonymous) 0x634d…8c38 | No | BUY | 508 | 91¢ | $462 | 0xcc1afc… |
| 07-23 08:49:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 24 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xcc1afc… |
| 07-23 08:49:15 | (anonymous) 0x725b…ee35 | Yes | BUY | 484 | 9¢ | $44 | 0xcc1afc… |
| 07-23 08:43:33 | (anonymous) 0xd43f…c66b | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xd8cfc7… |
| 07-23 08:43:33 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 6 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xd8cfc7… |
| 07-23 08:43:33 | Neighboring-Xylophone 0x0da8…54af | No | BUY | 21 | 93¢ | $19 | 0xd8cfc7… |
| 07-23 08:43:33 | Fabulous-Clothing 0xddf6…6b37 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xd8cfc7… |
| 07-23 08:43:16 | (anonymous) 0xe5b1…5e80 | Yes | BUY | 405 | 9¢ | $36 | 0x391e70… |
| 07-23 08:43:16 | (anonymous) 0x2468…814c | No | BUY | 405 | 91¢ | $369 | 0x391e70… |
| 07-23 08:43:15 | (anonymous) 0x70d5…4bf2 | No | BUY | 595 | 91¢ | $541 | 0x5c9398… |