Unruly-Button — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$32

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

63.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,955

lifetime

Volume

$7.00K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$21

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-13 12:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

59% 50% $-44

Politics

41% 100% +$12

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+200	$20	11¢	$21	+$1	05-27 22:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
italy nordio reform referendum passes	17	$247	905	905	+0	open	—	03-24 05:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	15	$185	1,669	369	+1,300	open	—	05-26 00:30
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	3	$146	100	100	+0	open	—	03-19 15:44
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	17	$130	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-01 19:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	5	$114	134	134	+0	Yes	+$12	05-08 18:02
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	4	$103	70	70	+0	open	—	05-01 18:38
will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be between 1pt0 and 1pt5	8	$102	142	142	+0	open	—	02-20 13:52
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	10	$99	170	111	+59	open	—	04-29 21:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$94	80	80	+0	open	—	05-22 04:10
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 440 459	17	$93	1,250	1,250	+0	open	—	02-15 11:23
military action against iran ends by march 31 2026	12	$92	200	200	+0	open	—	03-23 14:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$89	100	100	+0	open	—	06-11 19:34
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	2	$89	125	125	+0	open	—	01-13 19:35
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026?	3	$87	100	95	+5	open	—	05-31 17:03
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$83	230	230	+0	open	—	03-23 15:12
will italy join the board of peace	4	$75	40	40	+0	open	—	02-06 17:52
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	4	$74	714	714	+0	open	—	01-14 20:33
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	9	$73	200	187	+13	open	—	04-29 06:03
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 65 89	3	$72	200	200	+0	open	—	02-14 07:07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	2	$71	100	100	+0	open	—	04-12 15:25
will russia join the board of peace	2	$68	40	40	+0	open	—	02-07 03:12
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	2	$67	60	60	+0	open	—	01-30 10:02
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$66	188	188	+0	open	—	01-18 22:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$65	46	46	+0	open	—	01-17 14:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	4	$65	100	100	+0	open	—	04-30 06:37
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$64	80	80	+0	open	—	04-07 17:30
will player 191 win beast games season 2 619	19	$63	1,892	892	+1,000	open	—	02-22 20:38
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 500 519	2	$61	680	680	+0	open	—	02-01 03:53
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 520 539	25	$60	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-01 04:05
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	3	$60	100	100	+0	open	—	03-29 13:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 17:11:33	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xa367f0…
06-13 14:43:45	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	No	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0x5afb8d…
06-13 13:54:09	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt45t by june 30	Yes	BUY	60	20¢	$12	0xaa0804…
06-13 13:13:18	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt45t by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x6051e6…
06-13 12:20:52	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt45t by june 30	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x5d7d23…
06-13 10:13:30	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt3t by june 30	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x7788af…
06-13 08:01:15	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt3t by june 30	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xcf31bd…
06-13 07:58:36	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x1118fa…
06-12 08:49:46	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x59d719…
06-12 08:11:36	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	No	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0xa282c7…
06-11 19:34:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x1a7376…
06-11 19:23:52	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x5f43ea…
06-08 07:18:03	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x787552…
06-07 11:24:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	32	30¢	$9	0x3ce74f…
06-07 11:23:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	68	30¢	$21	0x26bc0c…
06-04 12:23:39	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x628365…
06-02 02:23:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x5360be…
05-31 17:03:03	Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	30¢	$19	0xb2936e…
05-31 14:02:30	Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	30¢	$11	0x16f66e…
05-31 11:09:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	BUY	97	29¢	$28	0x5f2f44…
05-30 10:17:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x97b219…
05-30 06:46:58	Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	SELL	95	60¢	$57	0x3875f4…
05-29 21:24:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x2cf34c…
05-27 22:04:30	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	7¢	$28	0xcac788…
05-27 22:04:25	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0xf5c846…
05-26 18:57:10	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	15	70¢	$11	0x9623e4…
05-26 00:30:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0x8ab645…
05-25 16:46:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa21479…
05-24 20:20:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xaba26d…
05-24 11:03:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x541c03…
05-24 08:07:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	91	10¢	$9	0xf88800…
05-24 08:03:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0xce15e7…
05-24 06:58:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	158	15¢	$24	0x483b23…
05-24 06:46:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	52	15¢	$8	0x4587e8…
05-24 05:40:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0x70fe13…
05-24 05:40:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0xc54f7a…
05-24 05:37:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	120	8¢	$10	0x09822a…
05-23 11:48:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	30	69¢	$21	0xd117c6…
05-23 06:42:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x419ea4…
05-23 06:40:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x636db6…
05-22 12:24:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0xc8c52a…
05-22 06:54:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xde5eb2…
05-22 04:10:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x14ad22…
05-21 10:49:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0xb29aa5…
05-20 14:39:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0x9b8c17…
05-20 06:45:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x70343d…
05-19 18:20:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	400	6¢	$24	0x3bbb12…
05-18 19:38:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x9bc930…
05-18 09:12:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x9a5c3f…
05-08 18:02:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	50¢	$45	0x86b082…
05-08 05:56:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x20e364…
05-06 21:31:47	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0x50c159…
05-01 22:10:24	US bank failure by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0x473c12…
05-01 18:38:24	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	40	80¢	$32	0x23e82f…
04-30 06:37:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x5c872b…
04-30 06:33:32	US bank failure by April 30?	Yes	SELL	46	1¢	$0	0xbcb116…
04-29 21:27:56	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0x1f63a0…
04-29 20:29:38	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xc95420…
04-29 06:03:46	Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	48	1¢	$0	0x73b73f…
04-28 13:34:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x73420e…
04-27 20:05:30	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x00d47e…
04-27 08:47:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	12	45¢	$5	0x087875…
04-26 04:57:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xc2302b…
04-25 15:15:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x1c015c…
04-25 07:34:04	Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x8950e9…
04-24 22:16:36	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xce7472…
04-24 20:51:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xdbd888…
04-24 14:19:58	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	45¢	$0	0xd529cc…
04-24 12:04:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	9	45¢	$4	0x626e18…
04-24 12:03:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	29	45¢	$13	0xde4edf…
04-24 11:21:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x92e4d4…
04-24 09:32:18	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	13	32¢	$4	0x46b443…
04-24 09:31:38	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	27	32¢	$9	0xe5abf7…
04-23 17:40:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x07bbfb…
04-23 17:29:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x626e3f…
04-23 08:02:56	Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0xbc74e5…
04-23 07:54:38	Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x55af23…
04-23 07:44:40	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	23¢	$14	0x4a882b…
04-23 06:41:48	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	39	23¢	$9	0x85bb2b…
04-23 06:39:08	Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xb15380…
04-23 06:38:38	Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xd55e67…
04-23 06:38:08	Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xc22c03…
04-23 06:21:50	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0x51d098…
04-23 06:15:56	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x70543c…
04-23 05:43:32	Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xab5bc3…
04-17 02:24:40	US bank failure by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0x94168e…
04-13 07:28:15	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	70	0¢	$0	0xc241ee…
04-12 15:25:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0xa4380b…
04-12 09:52:13	Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	206	4¢	$8	0x379a18…
04-11 20:37:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0x6744dc…
04-11 19:37:11	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	SELL	982	2¢	$22	0xda4d93…
04-10 18:44:29	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x34394f…
04-09 19:54:17	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	70	30¢	$21	0xabcfb5…
04-09 18:09:17	will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt753pt00 in march	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xb8660e…
04-09 18:09:03	will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt753pt00 in march	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x678f3d…
04-09 18:09:03	will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt753pt00 in march	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x62effe…
04-09 18:08:19	will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt753pt00 in march	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x6a3913…
04-09 18:08:19	will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt753pt00 in march	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x130a16…
04-09 17:43:03	will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt753pt00 in march	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x74e9dc…
04-09 17:42:55	will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt753pt00 in march	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x7f577f…