Failing-Manhunt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.45K

Unrealized P&L

+$304

Hit rate

92.7%

Resolved

225

Trades

2,863

lifetime

Volume

$243.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$85

Open exposure

$6.11K

21 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 07:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Other

49% 76% +$879

Politics

46% 85% +$1,513

Tech

5% 100% +$67

Crypto

0% 88% +$2

Sports

0% 0% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (21) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-3,803	-$3,570	99¢	$-3754	-$183	06-06 11:56
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	-1,023	-$1,254	96¢	$-977	+$277	10-27 09:27
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	-424	-$390	97¢	$-410	-$21	05-04 14:12
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	-329	-$275	90¢	$-294	-$19	05-21 11:25
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	-200	-$182	96¢	$-192	-$10	05-02 18:07
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	-176	-$162	98¢	$-172	-$10	05-04 20:57
next white house press secretary announced by december 31 2026	Yes	+200	$166	64¢	$127	-$39	10-17 05:43
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	+50	$19	81¢	$40	+$21	10-16 03:43
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+200	$48	19¢	$38	-$10	10-17 07:34
next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	+100	$58	35¢	$35	-$23	10-17 05:44
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-22	-$72	98¢	$-21	+$51	08-01 13:39
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	+20	$17	96¢	$19	+$2	10-29 07:51
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+50	$8	20¢	$10	+$2	10-16 18:23
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+50	$10	15¢	$7	-$3	10-09 16:55
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	+30	$8	16¢	$5	-$3	10-10 13:59
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	-100	-$62	3¢	$-3	+$58	05-21 03:35
Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	-45	-$5	5¢	$-2	+$3	07-04 15:52
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Yes	-100	-$15	2¢	$-2	+$13	09-15 10:32
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	$7	88¢	$0	-$7	10-25 22:04
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$185	94¢	$0	+$185	10-26 17:04
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-0	-$19	98¢	$-0	+$19	06-13 15:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	34	$14.7K	7,471	8,494	-1,023	open	—	10-27 09:27
iran strike on israel by february 28	102	$13.3K	7,189	6,944	+245	Yes	+$95	02-28 20:59
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	53	$10.3K	5,200	5,200	+0	No	+$25	04-21 20:18
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	43	$8.4K	4,499	4,499	+0	No	+$325	10-27 02:28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	70	$8.0K	5,682	5,682	+0	open	—	09-24 16:17
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	50	$7.6K	4,223	4,223	+0	open	—	10-26 07:04
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	122	$7.6K	4,703	4,981	-278	Yes	+$210	03-01 11:26
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	11	$7.4K	4,000	4,000	-0	open	—	06-13 15:27
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	71	$6.5K	3,552	3,552	+0	No	+$45	08-24 16:40
putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	79	$5.8K	2,967	2,967	+0	No	+$46	09-05 06:22
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?	36	$5.5K	2,800	2,800	+0	No	+$20	08-25 13:51
nuclear weapon detonation by march 31	36	$5.5K	3,177	2,684	+493	No	+$78	03-03 00:14
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	45	$4.8K	3,002	3,002	+0	open	—	10-26 17:04
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	41	$4.2K	2,892	1,465	+1,427	Yes	+$42	06-05 20:06
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	22	$4.1K	308	4,111	-3,803	open	—	06-06 11:56
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?	21	$3.7K	3,630	300	+3,330	No	+$187	09-24 14:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	56	$3.6K	2,669	3,261	-592	Yes	+$486	03-01 01:40
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	20	$3.5K	1,800	1,800	+0	Yes	+$8	07-13 08:40
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	9	$3.3K	1,801	1,823	-22	open	—	08-01 13:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	10	$3.0K	2,031	2,031	+0	No	+$41	04-21 13:58
zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	15	$2.9K	1,700	1,417	+283	No	+$25	03-15 18:31
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	11	$2.9K	2,041	1,000	+1,041	No	+$46	01-31 15:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	21	$2.8K	1,693	1,335	+357	No	+$51	05-13 12:08
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	80	$2.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$62	06-20 14:47
us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	13	$2.6K	1,364	1,364	+0	No	+$40	08-09 17:34
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	28	$2.6K	1,200	1,592	-392	No	-$14	01-14 00:06
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	23	$2.5K	1,585	985	+600	No	+$31	03-01 22:29
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	66	$2.3K	1,639	1,968	-329	open	—	05-21 11:25
us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	9	$2.3K	1,226	1,100	+126	No	+$27	07-15 16:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	11	$2.3K	1,600	1,600	+0	Yes	+$60	09-22 17:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 07:51:11	Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xfdf21a…
10-28 20:27:14	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x8df988…
10-28 19:58:02	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	33¢	$18	0x5919ea…
10-28 01:46:44	Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$2	0xfeba0b…
10-27 21:15:32	Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xdd2d47…
10-27 18:29:05	Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	29¢	$4	0xbbe08a…
10-27 15:17:08	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$100	0x275cd2…
10-27 15:17:06	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	99¢	$81	0x8f8db1…
10-27 09:27:54	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	2,572	95¢	$2,443	0x3a4444…
10-27 02:36:47	Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xd7dccf…
10-27 02:28:03	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,599	100¢	$2,588	0x9a0fb5…
10-26 18:10:24	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	23¢	$5	0x77304e…
10-26 17:04:48	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	90¢	$12	0x3f84d7…
10-26 15:51:36	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	No	SELL	113	96¢	$108	0xe11689…
10-26 13:49:38	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x09e636…
10-26 08:49:14	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0xab7d32…
10-26 07:04:08	Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	SELL	2,331	98¢	$2,287	0x4fb69b…
10-26 05:33:11	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,157	90¢	$1,041	0x9d2ac5…
10-26 05:33:09	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	90¢	$22	0xe25175…
10-25 23:35:39	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x0f468e…
10-25 22:04:36	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	213	78¢	$166	0x0c6db9…
10-25 22:03:54	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0xf8568f…
10-25 22:03:54	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	78¢	$11	0x54d899…
10-25 22:03:48	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	78¢	$14	0x2d9f2e…
10-25 22:03:36	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	249	78¢	$194	0x28695d…
10-25 18:37:57	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	33¢	$15	0xefd9a6…
10-25 18:03:36	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	201	92¢	$184	0x5efc6c…
10-25 16:56:51	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	No	BUY	48	93¢	$45	0x24e015…
10-25 12:54:03	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0x465d86…
10-25 10:14:32	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0xf939d5…
10-24 08:19:35	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $2.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	88¢	$14	0x737008…
10-22 22:07:20	Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0xdf72f5…
10-22 18:20:23	Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xa4341f…
10-22 02:53:23	Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x91b539…
10-22 02:08:26	Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x6ca23c…
10-22 01:35:33	Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0xc31aec…
10-20 23:31:50	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xa30a24…
10-20 22:05:48	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $2.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x75a5fa…
10-19 15:53:08	Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x705891…
10-19 05:08:42	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $2.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	88¢	$4	0xb3f16c…
10-17 20:02:56	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	47¢	$24	0x96907c…
10-17 12:31:05	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x9584c2…
10-17 09:34:21	Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	30¢	$9	0xaf58cf…
10-17 07:34:15	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	24¢	$48	0x24d642…
10-17 06:53:02	Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $1.50 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0x998146…
10-17 05:44:05	next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x7a38a1…
10-17 05:43:56	next white house press secretary announced by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x294497…
10-16 18:23:24	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x077400…
10-16 18:17:45	Syrian troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x2e3faa…
10-16 17:10:10	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0x053e66…
10-16 03:43:04	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	48	80¢	$38	0xc59b3b…
10-16 03:43:04	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x2f5d3e…
10-16 02:36:51	will iran target an arab country by october 22 2026 20261015	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x906cdc…
10-15 19:49:59	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0xd24617…
10-15 18:24:13	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x5d9761…
10-15 09:30:59	Ukraine lowers conscription age by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	68	93¢	$64	0x1f53bb…
10-15 06:29:56	Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	22¢	$7	0xfd0751…
10-15 03:27:05	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $2.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xa792a2…
10-15 03:26:44	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xe4e6c9…
10-15 02:53:58	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0x42be29…
10-15 02:26:01	will iran sabotage undersea internet cables by october 31	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x6cda00…
10-14 21:33:25	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	105	97¢	$102	0x96b91f…
10-14 20:21:51	will iran sabotage undersea internet cables by october 31	No	BUY	42	93¢	$39	0xe4a4f5…
10-14 20:20:58	will iran sabotage undersea internet cables by october 31	No	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0x90add4…
10-14 18:54:24	Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	22¢	$4	0x7022fc…
10-14 17:05:24	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xbfab31…
10-14 16:09:34	will iran sabotage undersea internet cables by october 31	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x27aa80…
10-14 03:43:04	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	74¢	$25	0x858013…
10-14 03:40:40	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x73e5d7…
10-14 03:40:38	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	64¢	$1	0x7325fb…
10-13 20:47:31	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	74¢	$25	0xff82dd…
10-13 18:44:10	will riyadh airport reopen by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x7cae1f…
10-13 13:28:46	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x48fad5…
10-13 11:27:02	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x1286c9…
10-12 21:54:35	Syrian troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x7f6b54…
10-12 13:51:48	Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x14c5c4…
10-12 00:30:05	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x5baf2e…
10-11 21:12:41	Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x4e9068…
10-10 18:03:19	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	75¢	$40	0x7b87f5…
10-10 15:26:55	Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x3214e0…
10-10 15:13:54	Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0x3e7261…
10-10 13:59:33	Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xd1a25b…
10-10 09:48:15	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x90e048…
10-09 16:56:56	Syrian troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xef3f53…
10-09 16:55:08	Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x91eb82…
10-09 15:12:27	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x3b44dc…
10-09 13:50:43	Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $1.50 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x056d84…
10-09 12:46:36	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xa30d47…
10-09 12:21:42	Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	59¢	$59	0x9039e9…
10-09 11:01:46	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	75¢	$32	0x51fcd0…
10-09 08:31:10	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xd00408…
10-09 05:37:32	Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xbd19b6…
10-07 11:32:20	Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x5d7ba3…
10-07 06:25:27	Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xb639fe…
10-06 23:54:56	Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xf3ec6c…
10-06 23:33:07	Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x369f8b…
10-06 21:27:38	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	95¢	$31	0x771430…
10-06 19:45:38	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0x249957…
10-06 17:39:29	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x102431…
10-06 17:23:17	Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xa830ec…