Failing-Manhunt 0x8199d2…3abb6d Create alert
whale 8W streak
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Realized P&L (30d)
+$349
Unrealized P&L
-$49
Hit rate
98.3%
Resolved (30d)
31
Trades (30d)
351
3,161 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$45.3K
$278.6K lifetime
Avg / trade
$88
Open exposure
$13.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-14 22:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 90 days
Categories
Other
48% 76% +$875
Politics
42% 85% +$1,554
Tech
8% 100% +$67
Crypto
2% 88% +$2
Sports
0% 0% -$13
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -3,803 -$3,570 99¢ $-3778 -$208 06-06 11:56
US imports Russian diesel by November 15? No +800 $782 98¢ $788 +$6 11-14 19:46
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,012 $740 70¢ $709 -$31 11-14 13:34
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +700 $678 96¢ $674 -$4 11-13 02:52
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +571 $307 98¢ $560 +$253 11-14 14:11
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes +600 $561 93¢ $558 -$3 11-13 02:48
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? Yes +986 $662 54¢ $527 -$134 11-13 08:11
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +500 $498 100¢ $498 +$0 11-13 18:50
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +500 $492 99¢ $495 +$3 11-13 19:19
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? No +513 $307 96¢ $492 +$185 11-08 15:57
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation at the end of November? Yes +483 $450 93¢ $452 +$1 11-11 10:59
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No -424 -$390 97¢ $-412 -$22 05-04 14:12
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No +400 $380 96¢ $385 +$6 11-12 07:46
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No +400 $373 93¢ $374 +$1 11-13 19:41
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes -329 -$275 98¢ $-322 -$47 05-21 11:25
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026? Yes +300 $293 97¢ $292 -$1 11-13 03:12
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +304 $288 95¢ $288 $0 11-14 22:32
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027? No +336 $267 82¢ $277 +$10 11-14 11:28
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $167 100¢ $200 +$33 11-12 07:31
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +200 $199 98¢ $197 -$2 11-13 18:50
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -200 -$182 98¢ $-197 -$15 05-02 18:07
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -176 -$162 99¢ $-173 -$12 05-04 20:57
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +400 $162 26¢ $106 -$56 11-12 15:32
Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation at the end of November? No +100 $89 95¢ $95 +$6 11-12 17:14
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? No +100 $88 89¢ $89 +$1 11-14 15:51
Will there be no government shutdown by December 31, 2027? No +100 $81 82¢ $82 +$0 11-09 04:41
Cambria listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE? No +74 $71 98¢ $72 +$1 11-10 23:48
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in December? No +50 $38 95¢ $48 +$10 11-11 10:09
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +50 $19 92¢ $46 +$27 10-16 03:43
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31? Yes +200 $101 22¢ $43 -$58 11-13 04:01